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"Total housing starts were at 549 thousand (SAAR) in June, down 5% from the revised May rate of 578,000 (revised down from 593 thousand) . . . This is way below expectations of 580 thousand (I took the under!), and is good news for the housing market longer term (there are too many housing units already), but bad news for the economy and employment short term."
12 comments:
http://www.dallasnews.com/sharedcontent/dws/bus/stories/071610dnbusmillion.190c4cb.html?source=patrick.net
sounds like north arlington.
pat, you mentioned something earlier about having trouble with links--if interested, see:
making links
I'll try to put the html here but use words in place of the first less than sign (<) and the last greater than sign (>), so it isn't read as html. All of this goes on a single line.
less than sign, then
a href=URL you want to link, then
>click here</a greater than sign
For Blogger HTML help, use this site:
Google Blog HTML Help Page
You can cut and paste the examples into your post and modify as needed.
Quick.
Easy.
Fast.
WSJ housing market stumbles, but if you look at the graphic, not in D.C.(love that you can sort by any column)
6.3 MOI, amongst the lowest
0.6% rise in inventory, miniscule
6.2% increase in price, amongst the highest handful
6.8% jobless rate NONE better
9.8% overdue payment rate, bottom third and enviable compared to many.
No signs of renewed weakness here yet. Not saying it couldn't happen, but I'm not seeing any evidence for it. (other than my own observation of 400-600k range of inventory being overpopulated with overpriced homes that aren't moving, but that just needs a 5-10% drop back to last year's prices to fix it)
Cara-
It is a shame they don't show change in months of inventory. I am pretty sure DC has always had a very low MOI, because it has a more transient population than many cities. My guess is that although inventory is flat MOI is up 10-20%. I was also surprised that there are several CA cities that have fewer delinquent loans than DC does.
DC is clearly in better shape than most of the country, but with the lowest unemployment in the country I would have expected some of the other numbers to look slightly better.
I couldn't help but think about DC-area housing when reading the WaPo series on top-secret jobs, focusing on contractors.
Part 1
Part 2
Cara,
Great article. Thanks for posting. Made my day.
Dunno about that "V" shaped recovery prognostication that other folks have talked about.
For 1 year, DJIA seems to hover around 10K and looks to be there awhile. Kinda like inlaws that won't leave.
Housing continues to be a millstone on the Dow IMHO.
Pic:
Link to DJIA Screen snapshot
Still got the stink eye pointed at stocks.
hb,
Since closed sales are still June, not July, and inventory was up only 0.6% any change in monthly inventory wouldn't show up yet. Have to wait until July sales come in.
hb,
A few days ago you asked about new construction in this area. It's not the statistic you wanted, and it's kind of a PIA to look at, but the MRIS data includes both the number of new construction active listings and the MOI. This is graphed at:
recharts.com
This isn't new starts, but it can give you some idea of whether current construction is presently keeping up with demand.
Inaccurate numbers read off charts:
FFX Cnty 10 MOI, 300+ active listings
NVAR just under 10 MOI 500 actives
Arlington 6 MOI, 100 actives
Alex 12 MOI, 40 actives
PWAR 8 MOI 400 actives
Loudoun 11? MOI 300+ actives
In all cases the number of active new construction listings have dropped dramatically from their peak. But with MOI over 8 in all but Arlington which is land-limited, I'd say there's no sign yet that builders are under-building for this market. With all the positive buzz about DC's real estate market, personally I'd be flabbergasted if at least some builders weren't ready and able to capitalize on it.
Cara-
Thanks for the link. I agree the data shows that as of now there is not much of a problem, hopefully the firms start building before MOI gets to 2005 levels (although this is likely years away at earliest).
"pat said...
sounds like north arlington."
Pat, how so? I cant open the link. Are they also seeing less foreclosures on a YOY basis too?
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