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Wednesday, July 14, 2010
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18 comments:
i believe we commented on this N Arl contemporary before. it's finally sold at a decent price.
btw i chuckled whenever the seller subsidy comes in at exactly $8,000.
MM-
I agree it seems like a decent price for both the buyer and seller. It is likely a decent bit off peak prices.
CNBC Blog: http://www.cnbc.com/id/38244093
FWIW: I've noticed that price reductions have a lead over sales or pending sales in my target area. It will be interesting to see if it translates into suprising numbers next month.
MM, I was about to post a very similar comment about that house.
And good point about the $8K. Did you notice the huge drop from original asking? This was a classic example of what some were commenting on earlier this week--sellers who think their un-updated properties, with some shortcomings that can't be changed, should sell for as much or more than new or beautifully renovated places.
I haven't been getting many new listing notices in my target range for the last couple of weeks. The summer lull is here in that range. I think closings will slow too, as some stand-off remains.
For the Anonymous in particular:
The C-S futures:
http://www.recharts.com/cme.html
now have DC not declining noticeably in price until 2011. I.e. next spring. Which to me says that the futures don't think it will go down in the near term, and have no idea if/when it might, they just still feel like it "should" even if it may never happen.
It's an interesting take, can't decide if I agree with it or not. Aside from that weakness I noted in the 400-600k range I'd have to say this sounds about right for the region as a whole.
I think we'lre now thoroughly into the differential appreciation stage. My neighborhood will stay flat or decline 5-10% because who in their right mind would pay more than that for our houses, and the TH owners won't have the equity to "move-up" quickly so will want something better when they finally do. N. Arlington and Vienna will start steady 1-3% yearly appreciation again. Places with growing popularity or usefulness like Reston will start a 3-7% yearly price gain. Places like PWC and Fauquier will be flat to slightly down for years. Overall in the C-S data this will look like another long-slow-flat period, whereas the reality of it will depend strongly on where you live and in what type of housing.
Ace,
same here. not much to get excited about lately.
so, barring unforeseen circumstances, we'll put an offer on a house after the weekend and hopefully end this seemingly endless search. there're two we liked but one's rectifying contract so it sort of made our decision easier.
i still don't like where the market's at right now, and we're not going to get the best deal over the three years we looked, but i believe we've done due diligence of not being rushed or forced or fooled into making a purchase. which is all this is about.
Crossing fingers for you MM.
MM-
Goodluck!
Cara-
I don't see 1-3% appreciation in Vienna or N. Arlington. I still expect prices to continue to fall at that rate in these areas. I don't expect anything big, but I do think the trend is slightly lower not higher for what its worth. Although seeing that there is no good data at the county level I am not sure we can see/tell the difference between our predictions.
hb,
True, it will be next to impossible to tell over a short time frame. Mine is basically just a rich getting richer prediction. I think the move-up market and high-end market will do better than the entry-level market because of which salaries and employment levels they depend on.
There's also alot of tbw-like "should" in my prediction of flatness or decline for my own neighborhood. While obviously it's not in my own best financial interest, I can't stop the gut feeling that my house "should" cost at least 10 if not 20% less than it does, because somewhere in FFX Cnty there "should" be modest SFHs in excellent school districts that can be afforded on one median income for a 35 year old with only 10-20% down. And somewhere which is only truly convenient for a small fraction of the popular workplaces is the logical choice. If not, then the whole place has just become toxic and unhealthy. But that's a lot of shoulds without a lot of reason how it would come to pass, so I leave it up to inflation to get us there again. One income families "shouldn't" have to live out in Manassas or Woodbridge unless they want to live out there...
MM, I hope you get it. I think you've done absolutely the right thing in being patient and discriminating, and waiting for something that will work for you.
I've been wrong about price trends most of the time (except in 1999/2000) so have given up trying to predict. I still think it's hard to say what's happening with most of No. Arl. because I see a lot of price drops (from a very high starting point), and I see a lot of houses still sitting, in the over $800K range, and believe that the low rates and buyer bribes had impact even, somewhat irrationally, in this range. With stock market prices still 20% below what they were a couple of years ago, and with it being unusually hard for people who own a house to afford to buy another (because of the difficulty and/or downsides of getting a $1 mill. loan, even temporarily, until the current house sells), because sellers of the higher priced houses generally aren't considering contingent offers, it's just hard to know what equilibrium would look like. It seems that only those buyers who are moving here from another town, having sold a house and temporarily living in an apt., can afford to buy or build.
And Cara, FWIW, I certainly agree with your sentiment about one income households.
Would cities' requiring banks to maintain properties encourage short sales and foreclosures to clear more quickly?
new laws
Cara re: futures, the one thing I think ive learned is that they arent very good more than say 18 months out. (closer than that they do pretty well).
Thus, the 2011 values (which stayed stubbornly low til recently) are now, reluctantly rising to meet the reality of where we are now. 2011 Contracts that were trading at 160 are now trading at 165+. Still, they seem to want to stay low given we are at 180 now. Thus, unless they rise a bit more in the near term, my guess is we very well could break just below 170 this winter (thereby foiling my 170-190 flat prediction).
Regarding values in Arl, Vienna, etc. I am actually a bit skeptical of them rising first. Assuming they are the cream of the crop, I dont think they have the capacity to rise until the "second best choice" neighborhoods start to rise and close the gap between them and the premium hoods.
To put it another way, I envision a reverse substitution effect going on in Arl/Vienna. Given our current economic climate I think people will not pay more for fillet mignon until the price of ribeye recovers to a price just below that. I guess we shall see.
and for hb,
(I think it was hb)
We were discussing credit scores the other day, here's an article:
LA Times
About 25.5% of Americans had credit scores below 600 in April, according to FICO Inc. Historically, only about 15% of consumers have had scores below that level.
...
On a bright note, the percentage of consumers with high scores of 800 or above has risen. Those with pristine records are at 17.9%, well above the historical average of 13%, although slightly down from the 18.7% in April 2008.
Those unaffected by the recession, hunker-down and get out of debt, while more and more other people dig themselves deeper. Great... They do say this is the typical post-recession pattern, which makes sense.
And in news of interest to no-one but me probably, the SS condo/TH that we put a contract in on last fall, finally did close. Only 7 months from time of last contract I believe.
http://franklymls.com/FX6933517
Buyer ended up having to pay over list to get a subsidy such that list was the net to the seller/bank. ($230k with 5,400 back) Our offer had been $220k with $5k back.
In today's market I still think the eventual buyer is getting a great bang for their buck. Just too small for us, not having the basement, is all. I tried to be that cheap, just couldn't do it.
Cara, it's a nice place, especially for the money. But FWIW, I agree you made the right decision. You will enjoy your house so much more, and you have the money to do so, comfortably. Now, if we can just find a solution for those allergies...
Cara-
Thanks for the article, I find it interesting that a higher percentage of people have pristine credit than usual. I find the increase in bad credit less surprising.
good luck, mm!
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