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Thursday, July 1, 2010
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12 comments:
Will the DC area feel the effects of the slow-down?
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/07/01/AR2010070101968.html?hpid=topnews
Most certainly.
Katie-
I agree with Kevin. Tons of people rushed to get the tax credit, which pulled forward demand. So now we will see lower demand for the rest of the summer selling season than we would have expected.
http://franklymls.com/DC7269054
apraised at 400K, sells for 270K
including 8K buyers bribe.
That's 45% below appraised price.
3 BR clean, redone, really
not a bad deal, not a great deal,
but, no longer crazy.
of course a lot of properties with
horrendous pricing and horrendous
mortgages are going to go under Sucks.
Katie, kev, housebuyer
We already know it will/did. The MRIS reports the contracts and contingencies each month. (link on the front page of the blog) In NVAR (FFX Cnty Arl, Alex, Falls Church...) C&C were just over 3000 in April but just under 2000 in May. So, over a 33% drop month over month. Very similar to the national stats. Now, given that last years C&C were at a rate of about 2400/month for April May and June for the same region, it's not yet clear whether the total sales for the spring/summer selling season will be lower or higher. But if C&C don't bounce back in the June numbers due out on the 10th, then 2010 sales will be down compared to 2009.
pat,
What's with the pictures of three different houses? Are they showing you what it might look like if you painted it? Did the bank even know for sure which house they were selling? Very humourous is all.
Interest rates:
Seems like a case of the rich getting richer.
Who can refinance? Those with jobs AND home equity.
Speculating, that would allow WDC homeowners to refinance, lowering their monthly housing costs and increasing their disposable income.
In turn, if some of that money is spent, it could increase economic activity regionally.
Most other regions aren't so lucky.
Robert,
I agree that refinancing is a rich get richer scenario. But I'm not so sure about the logic that our region is going to fair better than most others. If you scroll down to the decline since peak chart on this month's
redfin DC blog
we're pretty much middle of the pack, right in line with the composite 20. So equity-wise it's not obvious that we'll have more refinancers than "most" other regions. Unemployment-wise you may have a point, but I think the dominant factor for unemployment is income and education level such that the rich suburbs of _almost_ anywhere will get richer through refinances. (not Phoenix)
(I would have argued that this economic boon if it were to have started should have already been having an effect starting with last year's lows in interest rates where nationally many more refinanced than now. However, I do think the higher comps set by the tax-credit boosted sales have allowed appraisers to be much more confident in their assessments now versus a year ago)
I believe many articles have said that most everyone who would benefit from refinancing and is eligible to do so already has. Most of that money has already been spent - and the economy is still tanking. Now if rates reach 4-4.25% maybe those with ~5% loans might refinance again.
Jeremy,
That is indeed what the articles all say, but I do also know people who are refinancing now who couldn't last year because the comps just didn't exist to form a basis for the appraisal, whereas this year with 5 recent sales they should still be at 85% LTV. Sure the put down over 20% and will now have to pay PMI for a few years, but last year their bank wouldn't even talk to them and was claiming they were underwater in a falling market.
(even with PMI the payment should be less given their current 6.25 rate)
just wanted to post this sold N Arl REO SFH as some have commented on before. personally i think it's a fair price for an REO and everybody should go home happy with the deal.
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