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Saturday, June 5, 2010
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37 comments:
cool graphs on redfin
http://www.redfin.com/zipcode/20191
just change the zipcode in the url for your area of interest.
The reston property by Mr. flipper is still on the market and seem to be in trouble. It was purchased for 410k by flipper and VA Investor thought 600k was the right price.
Linky
Price reductions:
1/26/2010 $599,900
3/30/2010 $549,900
4/2/2010 $499,900
4/22/2010 $549,900
5/26/2010 $510,900
6/1/2010 $499,900
From January buckets:
======================
VA Investor said:
"Under 600K for a nice house in 20194 is kinda the "sweet spot"."
Spider said:
"VA Investor, For all I know, Joe average might end up buying 400k property at 550k during another 8k rush. Distorting markets & inventory isn't serving any purpose in my mind."
VA Investor said:
"Who says that the underlying value is 400K? And, you would have to admit, people want turn-key and will pay for it. I am not convinced that 600K is over-priced. The market will tell us."
Spider said:
"Not overpriced?
2009 $423,980
2008 $484,590
2007 $513,980
2006 $523,880
2005 $440,850
2004 $362,175
2003 $292,075
2002 $267,960
2001 $179,960
2000 $146,415
Need I say more?"
No offense to VA investor..who is a seasoned investor in that neighborhood.
But, it goes to show the kind of expectations investors have to continue to make ridiculous profits that occurred in the bubble period.
spider,
I am not some sort of "savant". I've never seen the property or evaluated the comps. On general knowlege, I suggested that 600K might be reasonable and further stated that "the market" will determine value. Flipper's don't always make money. I've made a few mistakes.
Nail me to the stake if you want. How many properties have we all seen go UC quickly where people here thought they were way over-priced. I would suggest that we have seen far more of those than the present example.
Coincidentally, the house you cite is one that I was looking at yesterday when I searched properties under 500K in response to a post from someone looking in Reston.
p.s. Is this a non-response/deflection to my response to your "double-dip" comment?
The 2010 assessment was raised significantly to $502k, so $499 is under that, when most detached are going >10% over in that zip. Something must be wrong with it I think. Before the flipper got it for $410k it was a short and went under contract at $475k, but was apparently rejected by the bank (nice move)
VA investor,
I agree. There are definitely many cases where properties have gone UC at crazy prices. That's why I said..I am not trying to pin you down on this particular property. I just happen to come across from an alert I setup.
On your double dip comment, I see lot quicker and larger price reductions lately. This is purely an observation from the region I track. As you said, we won't know the real numbers until later when sales and eventually CS comes out. But, definitely see weakness.
"shamrock said, The 2010 assessment was raised significantly to $502k."
It is possible that flipper appealed the 2010 assessment. At the top of the bubble, the assessment was 523k.
spider,
Did the flipper "appeal" the asessment? No way.
X,
My prop was rented today. 2 days after it went on CL. Your LL seems to be screwing you.
With all the reno talk on here lately, I thought I'd contribute Home Inspection Nightmares on the This Old House site. If you haven't seen this before, it's a hoot, so long as you aren't the one paying for repairs.
Without doing any systematic analyses, I would say that the instances where people here have been right about overpricing have far outnumbered those where the house went UC at asking or a price people here said was way too high. No one's perfect, of course.
Spider, why in the world wouldn't the seller have insisted that photos be on the web?
c, haha! #27 is my favorite. But the doorknob and food carton were a close second.
Here's a professional flip that I find interesting.
Belle Haven
It's a nice renovation on the toes of a nice neighborhood but $900K for a 1600 sq foot house is rather much, even if it does have water views. I'm pretty sure it's in a flood plain and it sits on a busy road at a site within earshot of Rt 1.
I'm guessing here's another flip that's gonna flop. I will be keeping an eye on it out of curiousity.
There's an open house on Sunday if anyone is interested in checking it out.
Sorry, here is a repaired link
Repaired Belle Haven Link
c.
Great reno and beautiful staging. I don't know about the the price, but the ask/sell prior tells you that the flipper was aggressive.
I flipped a much more traditional brick colonial down there back in the day (2001). Based on this price, I'd of been better off holding it. Hindsight....
C & VA_Investor, I agree that it has been beautifully done (and, at least from the photos, the materials appear high quality). It's nice to see someone pay attention to doing the landscaping as nicely as the rest of the house.
ps That house looks bigger than 1600 square feet above grade (per FX assessor), to me. The agent's description says there is an addition, but it also says 1600 square feet. The FX assessment also doesn't indicate when an addition and/or reno was done as it typically does. The addition looks fairly recent per some of the photos. Strange.
c & ace,
There is no way that flipper will lose money - it's just a question of how much they will make.
That is flipping 101. Use worst/worst scenario and if you still break-even...
Nothing ventured, nothing gained; no risk, no reward; no guts, no glory....etc.
VA_I, I'm not suggesting that the flipper will lose money. If the house is really bigger than 1600 square feet, I would think it will get a lot of attention. Very pretty house.
I was interested enough to pull up the 09 listing to see a Before and After.
Belle Haven listing Before
This excercise was very interesting as it shows that the info in the current listing is wrong. There's been a huge remodeling, many rooms have been expanded and moved around, with at least one more room added. The house was 1600 sq ft in 2009, it's obviously much bigger now and the tax assessor hasn't caught up. There's got to be at least $150K of work in this, maybe more.
I don't like the site location but other than that, this house is obviously worth a lot more than it would appear at a first glance at the listing.
C, agreed. Thanks for the research! That seller needs to get the agent to change the current listing's square footage. At the very least, they appeared to have added a story above the first floor family room, which may have formerly been a bedroom. The agent ought to get someone to draw the current floor plans and put them on the listing.
As part of our continuing series of over-priced and hideous properties, we nominate the following McMansion for your viewing pleasure:
http://franklymls.com/FX7356347
Regarding Ace and Tom's crime discussion in the prior thread, I'm struck by how much auto theft occurs in Arlington according to the map Ace posted. I guess I should be thankful I have a secure garage in my apartment.
Here is Fairfax County's Map. It's always amazing how crime is basically non-existent in some areas of Fairfax County. With some areas the fact that certain crimes were reported to the police make me think the area must really be low crime for the police to even report it. Such as the woman in Vienna who called the police to note two juveniles egged her house.
Mozart - I didn't think the Belle Haven property was hideous, the flipper did a very nice job on it. But I agree, you found a true eyesore.
I sse by the listing history that the owner tried to sell it for $2.2 mill two years ago, dropped the price by 60% and then took it off the market after 6 months. The listing says that the seller will look at all offers. Wonder how low he'll go? Talk about a rehab - I wonder what could be done to salvage this? Besides fronting the lawn with a row of rapid-growth densely packed conifers that is?
Mozart,
This is just down the road for more than 50% less. Kinda funky looking as well. Wonder why this is a short sale. It was bought in 2003. Perhaps the owner HELOC'ed.
Forgot the link
http://franklymls.com/FX7297423
Mozart - How about this?
I think the owner did a decent job on the renovation and on much of the staging, but oh my goodness that front! Whatever can be done about it?
What well and truly got to me is the tragicomic pot of zinnias standing out front like a brave little soldier. I couldn't stop laughing for 10 minutes
Va_Investor,
I knew he (they) were screwing me [I reserve the right to believe the management company is screwing both the LL and myself].
The question is how much? Until it's on the market, we can't know.
I've been building documentation, and pressing for communication from the leasing agency, and all involved.
To answer your questions from yesterday:
I couldn't get a written termination notice, they were supposed to send one but it 'got lost in the mail'. So did our move-out instructions (twice, had to get them hand delivered).
We notified the management company of our desire to break the lease about a week after signing the contract, so 1st week of April. Second at the outside. I could probably find the exact date, but I don't recall off the top of my head. We scheduled for them to take 'posession' first on 5/15, but had to delay to 5/17 to finish the last of the (what seemed to me to be onerous) move out conditions.
The house is in renting condition. The agent who is supposed to be listing it told me the only thing that needed to be done was carpet stretching (which is a laugh, the carpet needs to be tossed, and needed to be when we first started renting, but--) and he freely acknowledged that wasn't a tennet responsibility. So, they've had since the 18th (the Monday) to get the property on the market.
TBW, that's one reason I want to continue to have an attached garage.
I don't know how typical the time period on the map is of all times. But one thing I noticed is how many of the crimes occurred on or very near the main streets. I guess it's yet another reason why houses on busy streets sell for much less than they would elsewhere (in normal times).
c, your link didn't work for me (sent to an off-market property).
Xpovos, what a pain. I'd send the mgt. co., copying the landlord, a certified letter, signature required, a final payment of rent and a date you will be out, reminding them of when you first gave notice and that you are aware they should have re-rented it by now. If they're screwing the LL too, the sooner you let him/her see this, the sooner there will be pressure from both sides on the mgt. co.
As VA-I confirmed, they have to mitigate damages, and she rented one of her places in two days. As Cara advised, let them go to the trouble of trying to sue you in small claims court. If they have any sense, they will realize that you have evidence they haven't met their obligation, and you would win, so they won't try this.
Sorry Ace, try
this
FWIW, and it probably comes as no surprise, but I have noticed a drop-off of houses going under contract in Arlington. I track, via an email alert, SFHs in Arlington for under $550K. I've seen plenty of price reductions, some "off-mkt" coming back-on as "actives," but very few "pending" in the last month, i.e., prime selling season.
We'll see how long this lasts. Perhaps its temporary as the mkt adjusts to the end of the credit. Perhaps it's the new norm. Anyway, I thought I'd share my personal observations.
"Regarding Ace and Tom's crime discussion in the prior thread, I'm struck by how much auto theft occurs in Arlington according to the map Ace posted. I guess I should be thankful I have a secure garage in my apartment."
Most of these auto thefts occur in South Arlington. Which is more akin to PG County, as I've often noted.
Tom, why are you so afraid to look at the crime map? If you look at the map for the most recent time period, you can see that the little purple guys (representing thefts of property from vehicles and thefts of vehicles) are pretty evenly distributed no. and so. of route 50. Unless this time period is unusual in distribution, the facts don't support what you are saying. And from my recollection of the weekly crime alerts, the proportion is about the same.
http://www.spotcrime.com/va/arlington
C, Ewwwww.
Mike, thanks for the info.
guys
if VA_I thinks a property is a good deal at 600K then it's a better deal at 500K
look it's hard to tell, i was looking at 1035 10th stNE DC it was
hanging at 290K
as best i can tell it sold at 209K
whick is 10K under the offer i wanted to make and the LA rejected out of hand.
Pat - Did you offer cash only no contingencies? It's not always about the dollar amount.
Hey Pat,
Sometimes you see that. Sellers ride the market down. There is a saying (that I believe has some merit)..."your first offer is often your best".
I always wonder why they don't go back and contact an earlier purchaser, eventhough it shows alot of weakness. Too much effort for LA I suppose.
x,
I was thinking about your situation and re-read your last post.
You gave notice by mid-April that you would vacate mid-may. Was this written? Do you have an e-mail(s)?
Have you received an itemized list regarding the disposition of your security deposit? Check your lease for the date you should have received this.
It's arguable that your breach means you forfeit your deposit and I'm sure your lease obligates you to the end of any month (mine don't allow for mid-month terminations). I would agree with the poster that suggested a certified letter. I would comfirm all prior conversations/e-mails etc.
Can your agent print out what has been listed and rented in your development in the past 6 months. Of course, right now is a prime rental market (vs. Nov-March).
It's usually preferrable to advertise/list 45 days prior to the first of the month that the place will be available. Most tenants need to give 30 days notice to their current LL. OTOH, there are always people relocating to the area (or, in these times, need to move fast due to foreclosure of LL).
Clearly, the apartment could have been shown while you were still there. That is what I do unless the place is a mess.
A judge may think it is reasonable for the LL to need 30 days post your occupancy to get a property in rentable condition and list it. Then, it may take a management company 2 or 3 months to lease it. I hate management companies and would never use one. They often don't care if the place is vacant for a few months and rarely have any sense of urgency.
Did you take pictures or video when you left?
I'd send the letter saying you're "done" as far as liability due to their failure to mitigate. I would go on to list all the coversations, e-mails, etc AND provide hard-copy proof of other units (if any) being rented (DOM, price, etc).
Take a look at the Virginia Landlord Tenant Act and cite any relevant sections.
I wish I could be more specific but I have not encoutered this situation in a long time. My most recent rental was an early termination. I told them to clean like mad and fully cooperate with showings and that if I got a tenant, they would be released without cost to them. Now, I'll have to see when they actually move out if there are any damages - but I will have no lost rent against them.
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