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New Home Sales collapse to Record Low in May (lowest since September 1981).
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/23/2010
Posted by Harriet at 6:00 AM
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Sales fell well more than expected and median prices were the lowest since 2003.
house sales
Would anyone like to give me their opinions on this Oakton foreclosure/REO property?
link
There are a couple of similarly sized homes (with 4 bedrooms instead of 3) for sale nearby as regular sales, one on the market for several months. I'm not sure this one is listed at an appropriate discount for being an "as-is" foreclosure sale. We might tour it with our realtor this weekend to see if 3 bedrooms and an unfinished basement might meet our needs. We want 4, but 3 with an additional space to set up my computer desk will work if the price is right.
hey Jeremy,
I'm superficial and need to see more pictures. I know a mom from preschool with older children at Waples Mill who is really happy with the school, if that is useful information.
Looking at the sales history-what does it mean when the same name buys/sells and there is a 0$ amount--is that a refinance? Maybe the owner spent some of it on upgrading the house...he paid 318k and it was foreclosed on for 677k, so several hundred thousand dollars must have been pulled out and spent somewhere, right?
So I just clicked around a little on the comps and other for-sales and it looks overpriced compared to what I've found.
(1) I'm sure you've looked at this normal-sale house that doesn't seem to be anyone's cup of tea (long DOM) OR is overpriced. It has an extra bedroom and is only 20kish more than your foreclosure.
http://franklymls.com/FX7282935
(2) this one is under contract (listed at 645k) and is updated and a more popular style (colonial vs contemporary):
http://franklymls.com/FX7331131
(3) another under-contract house that looks MUCH nicer and MUCH bigger than the foreclosure house-listed for 674k:
http://franklymls.com/FX7329484
This one might be a good comparison to your foreclosure. It is a little frumpy inside and the outside style won't appeal to many, but is in the Oakton HS district and a similar size to foreclosure house.
http://franklymls.com/FX6886502
ok, just one more. I'd much rather have this house for 585k than the foreclosure house, for sure. It looks like the buyer got a good deal on this one:
http://franklymls.com/FX6885789
Thanks for the info Meshell. My wife actually went to Waples Mill and was happy with the school way back when. Glad to see it is still looked upon favorably.
Anyway, the current for sale homes I was referring to were FX7353926 and FX7282935. Both are the same contemporary style and in the same neighborhood. We actually prefer contemporaries to colonials unlike most of the general public, so hopefully that works to our advantage price-wise.
FX7331131 that you brought up I agree is a nicer comp for less in a similar neighborhood right next door. The two others right off Waples Mill Rd. aren't really in a neighborhood, which is a requirement for my wife, but maybe they still count as comps. I don't really know how they pick and choose them when making an assessment.
There is another contemporary in that neighborhood with a coming soon sign we have asked our realtor to keep tabs on for us. I have a feeling it may list initially outside our price range though, although a nicer, larger one sold for 750k after a LONG time on the market about a year ago.
Inmates get Tax Credit:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/37870056/
hmm..., interesting... even
IN THE HEART OF CLARENDON- 5 MIN.WALK TO 2METRO STOPS*JUST STEPS AWAY TO STARBUCKS,WHOLE FOODS, FINE DINING SHOPS AT MARKET COMMON
and with DOMm/p: 0/0
Date Sold Price
6/17/2010 $860,000
8/30/2005 $940,000
if there's only one N Arl neighborhood i could see bubble gain sustained, this would be it; yes, even for THs.
This is an interesting article, no real new news here, but still worth a read:
"Our view on real estate: Misguided housing subsidies promote unfairness, bailouts"
http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/editorials/2010-06-22-editorial22_ST_N.htm
MM-
I agree I would have thought this neighborhood would do at least as well as the rest of N. Arlington. This house was down 9%, which clearly is better than most of the region, but is still significantly down. You could also claim that August 2005 was not the peak, so in theory this may have been down over 10% from peak.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/prisoners-scammers-profit-on-home-buyer-credit-2010-06-23?dist=afterbell
I thought this was a funny and scary at the same time... so thats where millions of tax payers dollars went, i guess a lot of people tried to collect, and those were reported on 2008 claims.... i wonder how long and how many scams will be found in 2009 as well as 2010 claims for the $8000 tax credit... this is only leading to a greater disaster
Did you see this in the WaPo?
NoVA growth
"Census figures released Tuesday cement Virginia's position as the growth engine for the Washington region. Most places there had population growth of more than 3 percent from 2008 to 2009. By comparison, Montgomery County grew by 1.9 percent and Prince George's County by half a percentage point."
Thanks for the link, Ace.
I've been hearing that story all day and also one on rents -- I was caught off guard recently at the trouble a friend of mine is having finding a rental. They are getting scarce. It's really somewhat frustrating for them, because rents are now much higher than a mortgage payment. They'd be paying about $1,800 on a loan for a house for which the rent is $2,300. And every house they've seen that's any good is snatched up right away.
I can't seem to find the rent prices story in print anywhere, but it was on the local news every half hour today.
Harriet-
Where is your friend looking for a rental? I only know the orange line area, but everything near the metro on the orange line is still much more expensive to buy than the rent.
There are several stories about demand to buy dropping off a cliff after the tax credit ended so hopefully the good properties will last longer than before in the areas they are looking
Harriet and HB,
It's prime rental season and it would only make sense that if people aren't buying they are renting.
I don't see much supply in the pipeline and expect supply to tighten in the coming years. Note the article regarding population increases in this region and also the articles yesterday putting the DC region as the 2nd best job market in the country.
Harriet -
Your friend is using all the tools available right? Zillow has an excellent rental search engine. This feature doesn't pop up on their main page but can be found via search. I tried it out and found 242 SFH for rent in Fairfax County. The map feature will allow you to keep drilling down to specific neighborhoods and can be further refined for property type, beds, baths, sq ft etc. There is another neat widget on the individual listing page that lets the user calculate commuting times, as well as the standard worth comparison tools and thus the rental price versus probable mortgage rate. Etc.
For locating rentals, I also like Fairfax Realty.
Your friend can also use Google Maps to supplement these two rental search engines, though I find that this information often tends to be out of date. I love the "drag the map around" feature though.
using google maps to find rentals.
As I am not in the area right now, I don't know what rental story you are referring to. But here's an interesting news story on current proposed legislation for the Right to Rent Act.
"Here's how the law would work: your family receives a foreclosure notice. You have twet business days to go to court and exercise your right to rent the property for up to five years. The fair market rate is determined by a court-appointed, independent appraiser. To be eligible, the single family property must have been occupied for at least two years, and purchased prior to July 2, 2007, at median price for the local metropolitan area. The bill would sunset after five years.
"This is something Congress could in principle do and immediately help hundreds of thousands—if not millions—of people who are facing foreclosure," said Baker. "And it doesn't cost any public money. This is not taking anything from the Treasury."
If banks don't want to be landlords—and they don't—this law would provide a strong incentive for them to make meaningful modifications to mortgages, including principal reductions, rather than take on a tenant for five years.
"By not allowing banks to simply throw someone out, it makes foreclosure a much less attractive option," said Baker."
Jeremy: That's a nice neighborhood. Architecturally, the house isn't my bag, but that doesn't mean that it might not be a nice place to live.
Case in point is the Lariat house (FX6885789). It looks very nice inside and out (my wife and I toured the place). But that house has two big problems:
(1) Because of their layout, colonials need to be a minimum of 2300-2400 sq ft, otherwise the rooms are just too small. 'Contemporary' houses that break the mold can sometimes use square footage more efficiently. Case in point is the dinning room of the Lariat house: you can't really seat more than 6 in there (although I suppose you could extend the table into the living room).
250 sqft might not sound like a big difference, but a 2400 sq ft colonial (30x40) is 2 ft deeper and 2.5 wider than a 2100 sqft (28 x 37.5). That adds up to more room around the dining table, more room between a bed and a dresser, more closet space, etc. It can turn a tight fit into 'just right'.
(2) When standing on the deck, traffic off of Fox Mill was surprisingly loud. I think the terrain creates a natural amphitheater that funnels sound towards the house.
Having said that, I wouldn't pay more than $600k for the foreclosure, and maybe considerably less if it isn't reasonably updated or needs considerable work.
Very good point about the colonials. My wife liked them better when we started looking just based on their curb appeal. I prefer the 'ugly' contemporaries because they are not as common. Once we started touring homes she noticed that the contemporaries just "feel" bigger inside because of the angled ceilings, more natural light, and the reasons you mentioned.
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