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Wednesday, June 2, 2010
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50 comments:
What would you all think is a reasonable but low offer on this place?
http://franklymls.com/FX7323987
http://www.6927riveroaksdr.com/(This link contains links to PDF floorplans)
It seems nicely maintained, but the three upstairs bedrooms are tiny; there is no garage and it isn't clear it is legal to add one; and it is 44% over assessed value when things nearby are selling for more like 20% over assessment.
Any other concerns that you all see?
Thanks!
Liv Sining,
That's a tough one. There's only two comps in that specific neighborhood that sold in the last year. One much bigger and more grand for 1.5mil, and one 2-level rambler in AS-IS condition for $925k. So, just based on those two 1.2mil could be appropriate... I'd have to be familiar with the area to know which other subdivisions it should be compared to...
(I really like the house though, but it's my kind of house.)
My best attempt at a
comp search
22101 800k to 1.5mil, 5 or 6 bedrooms Built1940-1970
only contemporary comp in there:
http://franklymls.com/FX7182190
$999k, contemporary outside look, but no modern feel to the interior, ~1000 sq feet smaller (if the sq footages are accurate on the MLS) but it does have a 1 car garage...
I would think the lack of a garage is going to be a sticking point, making it harder to sell, but I'm having a really hard time gauging the price. You need to do a careful job on assessing the closest comps in terms of location equivalence, condition and size.
Calculated Risk Fannie delinquencies and REO holdings
90 day delinquencies may have peaked. Quite possibly because Fannie is finally moving forward with the foreclosure process.
End of quarter REO inventory for the the GSE's and FHA is now at 209,500, up 22% from Q4 2009.
So, whatever surge or wave or peak of REOs hitting the MLS we expect to happen should be in the next 2-6 months. Under the semi-questionable assumption that our timing reflects the aggregate national timing. But our peak was pretty close to the national peak, and a lot of the timing is HAMP and other intervention based, so it's not totally crazy. In any case, if anything we should peak in REO's sooner than other places due to our non-judicial foreclosure process. So if there isn't a wave of new REO's within the next 6 months, I'd say there isn't going to be one.
We'll have to see if Harriet's observation of a new batch of them near her June 1st starts cropping up in a wide-spread fashion.
Liv, Without seeing it, I would say: I think the FMV price is close to assessed value. From the photos, it appears that, in addition to the points you made, they have invested very little in updates and improvements. The kitchen appears original (or maybe 70s era), as does at least one bath, and the Realtor description does not mention any significant upgrades. This means you would have substantial systems updates (in a house this age), e.g., windows, roof, HVAC, hot water heater, possibly plumbing and electrical work, plus a LOT of other work and money (e.g., kitchen & baths, plus maybe you would want to move walls, replace or refinish floors, paint) to make it modern and functional. If I were looking at it I would be mentally adding hundreds of thousands to the price to get it into condition comparable to an up-to-date house.
I agree with you that the lack of a garage is a big drawback, because most McLean houses in that price range have them (many have a two car garage). I also don't know that neighborhood, though I know the one for Cara's comp. (thanks, Cara)--that one is very nice. The comp. is in a significantly better location for commuting to DC, Pentagon, etc., and appears to be moderately more updated. That should affect the price as well.
This is not to say that someone won't fall in love with the place and pay more--with unique houses that happens. But I'd be willing to bet they wouldn't pay much more than assessed value - in part because it might not appraise even if the buyers are willing to pay it.
Liv, I notice that McLean values the land on the 1957 house at a higher level, which is often a good indication of relative neighborhood value (controlling for lot size and problems such as being on a busy street). One reason may be that it is in the Langley school pyramid, which as I understand it, is valued a bit more by parents than McLean. However, one parent I know to chose a different neighborhood altogether said that Langley has a grading system that some parents believe disadvantages children when applying to universities. But even so, people may pay a premium for Langley.
Ace,
I would argue from the pics that both bathrooms are in fact updated, but not upgraded. That green counter looks very new, as does the white tile with mosaic accent. It's just that neither are upgrades. For 1.2 million one would usually expect upgrades, not just new low-to-moderate end finishes.
Basically I would say that if you like the layout as it is, and only would want to change the finishes, then something like 20% over tax assessment may be appropriate simply for the uniqueness factor. (other's were getting 20-50% over tax assessment for upgrades).
But really I should shut up about anything this far out of my price range, because I don't know what I'm talking about.
Liv, the Fairfax county assessor is a more reliable source for comparing overall square footage than is MLS. Realtors can say whatever they want and they typically include finished basements in the total square footage. Fairfax separates these. For most houses, including ranches with a finished basement even on a slope (i.e., where you can walk out to the yard), only the above grade (main floor square footage) is shown in the total. On a separate page on the FX assessor page, the presence of a full or partial basement is indicated and if there is a finished rec room or bedrooms in it, you will see additional info there.
To be clearer, I should have said--"main floor and above."
Cara, typically unusual houses sell for the same or LOWER prices than otherwise comparable houses, because they have fewer potential bidders. Most people do NOT want an unusual (in the way we mean it) house (otherwise they would be more usual). However, all it take is one buyer who loves it and who has enough cash to buy it or to put enough down that the lender focuses only on whether the loan balance is lower than appraised value.
Cara, you may be right, but the bathroom looks like a 1980s remodel to me. I'm looking at the cabinets and hardware, and you don't see many green counters now. Most buyers would consider 1980s not-so-new.
So maybe I should clarify that I do not mean that there have been no updates since 1957, or that someone might not be very happy with it as is, but just that if you want to compare apples-to-apples, the recency and appeal of the updates is very important. To get a premium well over assessment typically in McLean and Arlington in this range, the seller has to have recent, tasteful, and (as you say) high end upgrades.
Cara, I think I was looking at a different bath from the one you did. I agree the bath with the colored tile insets does look more recent than the 80s.
PS I think it's a very nice house--I like it--don't mean to say otherwise--I was speaking only to how much it might be worth relative to other houses--speaking only from the photos.
Liv and Cara, here is a mid-century modern in the McLean school district, beautiful neighborhood, that sold last year. It was totally updated by a flipper and sold for $1.05 mill.
http://franklymls.com/FX6942623
make that 1.06
Ace,
Yeah I saw that one and liked it alot, but at 3/6/2009, that sold at the absolute bottom of the recent trough, peak-fear.
Comps are so difficult in the upper price ranges where fewer things transact and houses are more distinct.
Yes, I agree it's hard to pin down comps. in that range, particularly for contemporaries. But I still think, from what I have observed, that it's generally true that the assessed value (particularly in FX) is a pretty good starting point for an un-updated house. From there, one has to add based on what has been done and how expensive, recent, and appealing it is. So riveroaks might generally be worth $100K over assessed value depending on things you can't really gauge from the photos, but I would not think it would be worth more than that.
I agree the Laburnum house was sold during the trough, but I don't think that the trough is/was as marked for houses in this price range as for other houses. It is worth far more than the riveroaksdr house, and I am not sure it would sell for any more today than it did in March 09.
Ace,
Ah, see I think it would sell for more right now. Even in the upper echelons, there were a few steals that happened last year and without enough other comps it's hard to say whether this was one of those abberations.
Cara, it's one of those unknowable things. Good arguments can be made on both sides; there are factors pointing in both directions. For example, conditions for this price range actually may have been a little worse in the summer of 09 than when this house was on the market (e.g., jumbo rates commanded a very high premium and many lenders weren't even talking to people). And even now, loans beyond the jumbo ($700+) limit are hard/expensive to get, months of inventory are still high in this range, the stock market is down again and volatile, etc.
In any case, I agree it's tough to find current comps. It will be interesting to see what the riveroaksdr house sells for.
Liv,
Looks to me as if the one that's currently for sale is just as close to 495 as the comp is to the GW parkway.
In fact that proximity to the beltway on the one you've pointed out would be a deal killer for me, even more so than the lack of a garage....
Thanks for the comments. We walked through the open house last weekend, and it is really a well-kept place, with a super nice yard. One thing that does not show up on many of the pictures is that the houses on each side have been torn down and replaced with some pretty monstrous McMansions. You can't really see them from inside, but they kind of hulk over the road. Not attractive.
Good point on the age of the systems, Ace. The kitchen is an addition that was put on in 1997. I suspect that the bathrooms were redone around that time as well.
And even though it is 5 bedrooms, even the seller realizes that it would be better to combine two of the bedrooms into one.
Cara -
It is a really quiet street, and there are lots of trees. Standing in the front yard, we couldn't even hear the Beltway traffic.
No garage is definitely a problem, though.
Could you build a carport?
If you did a 30' long covered bridge
kind of deal near the
end of teh driveway, you would get the
sun and snow protection, without a
garage, and you could build a workshop in the back yard for tools and projects.
Liv Sining,
I'm thinking pollution-wise not just noise, but good to know you couldn't hear it from outdoors.
Liv, thanks, sounds as if the updates were more recent than they appeared from the photos. I thought oak was passé after the mid-80s, and that people were not putting it into kitchens and baths then but apparently not--or maybe the kitchen is not oak. Still, 13 years is a lot of wear, even if well-maintained--way too much for their asking price. Perfectly fine at a much lower price.
In the same/lower asking price range, for a (roughly) same size of house, nice neighborhood, etc. someone is getting a really cool, 2006/2007 architect-designed, complete renovation, with a two car attached garage--see:
http://franklymls.com/FX7284880
And this house MAY be having trouble with appraising (see Redfin for the long time they have been waiting on appraisal contingency to be removed).
I also think Cara's point is well-taken about the quality/price of the renos - even when new, they appear to be middle-of-the-road.
Ace,
Now that's a find!
Not my price range and not my target area but here's a house in McLean that I would consider affordable, though it is in need of some serious updating.
McLean
To me, it looks like flipperbait, esp. if he/she can nudge the price down a bit more.
Pat,
totally with you on the carport idea. I have to check and see what the legality is, though.
Ace,
I completely agree their asking price is not reasonable. Just thinking of making a lower offer and want to justify it well.
Thanks for everyone's comments!
Liv Sining,
The strongest argument you could make would be looking at each comp, one by one, sq ft by sq ft, finishings and location, and picking first those that give you the lowest price for your house, and then look at it from the perspective of the seller and find those that give the highest price. (so that you'll be able to counter their logic and explain why those aren't really comps).
But for a quicker argument, I think what you started from times what Ace is saying is the simple way to go. What level of finishes seems to be leading to what percentage over or under assessed value?
LS
any carport should be far enough down that a moving van can still get close
or be bypassed by a moving van or plumbers truck.
maybe you could built a lean to
kind of shelter off the driveway, so
you can park it off the side when it's
foul weather, but still use the main lane.
i love the yard but, it's a trick coming up with the shelter you want.
you may need to camouflage it with lots of fast growing trees first.
boy, the market has not been kind to houses on busy streets post-bubble...
on Glebe Rd in 22207
10 Tax A: $1,163,100
List Price: $999,250
LISTING PRICE HISTORY
6/23/2008 $1,537,000
1/8/2009 $1,429,000
4/22/2010 $1,075,000
another busy street house in 22207
10 Tax A: $560,500
Net Price: $490,000
LISTING PRICE HISTORY*
10/30/2009 $595,000
5/1/2010 $519,900
* i believe it started out above $600K last year
one more in 22207, built in '07
09 Tax A: $836,900
Net Price: $908,500
LISTING PRICE HISTORY
10/10/2008 $1,077,777
4/4/2009 $994,500
5/14/2009 $994,500
4/16/2010 $949,900
not that i'd buy it, but it's sold at the exact price i'd thought to be a fair price.
it felt good to be right for once!!!
wow, Tax Assessment dropped from $730,900 in '09 to $674,000 in '10! isn't that close to 10%??? what must have happened in that neighborhood?!
interestingly, the original listing price was $739,000 but sold at $675,000. good job Arl assessors!
this is one of the HGTV house that some here love to hate right? sold close to list and tax assessment. another good job by Arl public servants!
ouch, ~15% loss (2010 sold price: $608,000; 7/19/2007 $694,900) from '07 when new for this "Beautiful Penthouse in boutique, 18 unit building." i actually like this building...
pat -
I called the county. A carport isn't allowed in the front of the house, only alongside or to the rear. Since there isn't really a place, it isn't an option. However, an attached garage is allowed as long as it meets the setbacks, which is easy if not expensive.
looks like Lorcom Lane is losing its appeal...
'10 tax $552,800
Net Price: $537,500
LISTING PRICE HISTORY
4/9/2010 $580,000*
*it was FSBO with a higher price before that...
MM Said:
"this is one of the HGTV house that some here love to hate right?"
I like the house (especially the coordinated natural trim throughout) but at under 1100 sq ft, "compact" is one way of putting it!
MM, good detective work and good call -- you will be so ready when your house comes on the market. I agree with you about how the busy street/immutable defect houses are doing poorly.
Cara, is your comment intended along the lines of the OB/GYN who says "now THAT'S a BOY!" when delivering the ugliest male baby he's ever seen? I liked the house. Here's another McLean "modern" for you and Liv -- I went to an open house for this one-- it doesn't have a basement and needs a lot of updates, but it's as big as Liv's split:
http://franklymls.com/FX7284505
c, agree--that house is very cute but you'd have to have a BMI of about 14 to live there.
Liv, I agree with Cara that there are several processes you can use, that we've talked about on this thread - I hope if you have a Realtor you are pushing him/her to work on this too. Good luck -- it is a very nice house and I hope the sellers are ready to get reasonable.
Ace,
Not at all. I like the outside. Although without interior pictures it's really hard to judge whether I'd actually like the house.
woah!!! so what happens in the tilted portion? How many levels are in that part?
I think you've done a good job of proving the point that for a little over $1 million in McLean you actually can get not just modern but unique.
Wow, Ace
That looks like it had an unfortunate encounter with a sinkhole. However, of all the $1M+ listings referenced here, that is one property that I believe is actually worth the money.
I like the interior layout very much but would worry about snow blindness with all that white-on-white-on-white-on-white.
Cara, if you link to the home tour you can see photos and the floor plans (great floor plans, IMHO). It's definitely worth a look. They started with a raised rambler, reno'd part of it, and built up and maybe out, part of it. The architect was/is very talented.
c, yes, you can see the $ that went into this house (the stonework in the back yard walls alone was not chump change). As for white: I like it. But paint is about the cheapest and easiest fix there is, for those who don't.
I should clarify that in my reply to Cara, I was referring to the first of the two modern houses. The Old Chesterfield one has a strange layout. Not sure if you were asking about that one or the first, Cara.
ditto to c--I was referring to the first one; you might have been referring to the second.
Both of them have been under contract a long time. Not sure whether that was because of the parties' preferences or problems with the banks, appraisals, etc.
Cara and c, if you were asking about Old Chesterfield, the indoor lap pool is under the sloping part of the house. Because the living room and dining room are very small in that house, I would expect a new owner to fill in the pool to make more entertaining space, unless they had health reasons or some other reasons for wanting to keep the pool.
There appear to be more contemporaries and modern houses in McLean and Bethesda than in many other places (other than Hollin Hills). Some of them are really interesting and/or beautiful.
Ace,
Thanks I was having a heck of a time looking for a layout on Old Chesterfield.
I'm actually not that fond of either of them, now that I've looked at the virtual tours. Old Chesterfield has too many windows (something I never thought I'd say), and the first one is aggresively boxy, especially with the more sharp corners than necessary in the kitchen. I'm not fond of the random red/pink cabinets in either of them either. I think I actually like the truly wierd Old Chesterfield better, but I'm not getting a sense of flow and openess from either.
But that's just pictures.
Too bad both McLean and Bethesda are ridiculously far from where I work. I'll have to stick to Hollin Hills for my house-day-dreaming.
cara, I figure dreaming can happen anywhere, so I like to search frankly for contemporaries and modern houses, regardless of location, even though there is a high noise-to-signal ratio.
I also didn't like the strong red/pink. The circular staircase in one was wobbly and even if fixed would be hazardous for kids and elderly folks (and maybe others). In the other, it's perched high on a hill--beautiful for vistas, but it would be very slippery to drive or walk up, even with a little snow. I can hear the delivery people swearing and/or telling you, "sorry, we must charge you an extra $500/can't get our truck up there." And entering into the basement is not a plus for many reasons.
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