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Saturday, May 15, 2010
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16 comments:
Why Freddie Mac Sees Home Prices Falling Later This Year
"Freddie Mac warned in financial filings Wednesday about four big risks it sees for home prices over the coming year. The company says to expect a further decline in home prices nationally before any sustained turnaround begins.
The chance of further home-price slippage, according to Freddie, stems from the following:
* Our expectation for a significant increase in distressed sales, which include pre-foreclosure sales, foreclosure transfers and sales by financial institutions of their [bank-owned] properties, due in part to [the Obama administration's foreclosure alternatives program]. This reflects, in part, the substantial backlog of delinquent loans lenders developed over recent periods, due to various foreclosure suspensions and the implementation of HAMP. We expect many of these loans will transition to REO and be sold in 2010. This may cause prices to decline further as the market absorbs the additional supply of homes for sale.
* The April 2010 expiration of the federal homebuyer tax credit.
* Our expectation that mortgage rates may increase in 2010, which will make it less affordable to buy a home.
* The likelihood that unemployment rates will remain high."
Price discovery now resumes after a year long life support. Ready for the ride?
had Obama let it happen in the first year he could blame bush, now it's his fault.
And, these polices just created several new under-water homeowners right off the bat.
Great spider. Don't buy a house "nationally."
Wait until the Fed stops purchasing mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage rates will
absolutely, beyond any doubt, categorically, clearly, decidedly, doubtless, doubtlessly, easily, explicitly, expressly, far and away, finally, indubitably, no ifs ands or buts about it, obviously, plainly, positively, specifically, surely, undeniably, unequivocally, unmistakably, unquestionably, without doubt, without fail, without question
go higher.
30 year fixed rates
Robert - that's Freddie Mac's quote....not mine!!!
"spider said...
Price discovery now resumes after a year long life support. Ready for the ride?"
Oooo -- sounds ominous & scary!!! Kinda like a STAMPEDE.
"Robert said...
Wait until the Fed stops purchasing mortgage-backed securities. Mortgage rates will
absolutely, beyond any doubt, categorically, clearly, decidedly, doubtless, doubtlessly, easily, explicitly, expressly, far and away, finally, indubitably, no ifs ands or buts about it, obviously, plainly, positively, specifically, surely, undeniably, unequivocally, unmistakably, unquestionably, without doubt, without fail, without question
go higher."
LOL -- that was the theory wasnt it? There were presumably no buyers out there other than the fed. Thus the day that they stopped buying mortgages, rates would "explode" into the stratosphere, and cause housing prices to sink into oblivion.
Oops!
http://franklymls.com/AR7272573
for those who say Arlington is Immune
http://franklymls.com/AR7272573
20% down from Assessed, 12 months on market.
Big cut from first list price. almost
60% down there.
Under the listing WTF,
look at the comments on this
http://franklymls.com/DC7256117
Pat, it's in South Arlington -- and on Glebe Road, to boot.
North Arlington and South Arlington are different worlds.
Wash., DC is a huge market. I think the only way to tell is hindsight. I know the outlying markets are still quite weak - for example; Stafford, Spotsylvania, etc. I would doubt W.VA has seen much demand. Forget PG.
I think MRIS inventory levels are more revelant - by County or zip.
If we have another leg down, it will be a blow to the economy. I'm prepared to buy if we see another dip.
On another note, I read an article that some of the major player's (Horton, etc.) are grabbing all the finished lots they can get their hands on in Florida.
VA-
I have read similar articles about a lot of the destroyed markets like Vegas and parts of CA. Personally I don't understand why they would want to do this. These markets already have way to many houses. The last thing they need is the builders to start making more inventory.
The articles were claiming that the builders could make money, because labor is much cheaper than it was a couple of years ago. So I am sure they are correct that they can make a small profit, but do they not realize how near sided it is to make a small profit while destroying the fragile housing market that they will need to make future profits?
hb,
The article I read (WSJ?) said that they are buying finished lots for less than the "finishing" cost and thus the lots are under "free".
The article further claimed that "cash is king" and only certain builder's are in a position to buy - one major builder from Canada included. They are anticipating being ready to go when the market turns. Many have far more "options" than hard contracts.
I would trust their judgement more than mine. These are the guys that pulled out and didn't get badly burned. Up here, I heard NVR did the same regarding options verses hard contracts. Some learned their lesson from the early '90's and some didn't.
Some people will be permanent transplants but, as I've said before, the population down there in-season vs. off is night and day.
Pat, once again, our friend Tom shows he's unwilling to look at data. As documented repeatedly, the area several blocks north of this house has very high values, comparable to those in Tom's neighborhood and in many cases, higher; there are million $ homes in the neighborhood. The convenience and promixity to metro and DC accounts for it. Check it out on frankly. Tipper Gore's family owned (and maybe still owns) a house within perhaps 2 miles of the house Pat cited. Waiting Too just bought a nice house in that neighborhood and I'm sure she paid considerably more than the Glebe house costs.
Values have dropped in that area, as they have in most other neighborhoods in Arl.
The problem with the house is that it is right on Glebe Rd., a horrible location because of the busy street and because it faces Arlandria and the Four Mile Run, which looks like a ditch at that location. Arlington doesn't factor this into assessments. It's clear that the owners overpaid for it. So its decline in value is atypical.
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