Monday, May 10, 2010
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18 comments:
very surprised by the Arl #s. With all those $1MM+ houses selling like hotcakes I was expecting a big jump. but maybe i misunderstood what the figures reflect...
Thanks, Harriett for posting the data.
It is quite interesting that Arlington County had a decrease in median household price once again, while all other counties had significant appreciation.
Arlington also has a relatively high number of listings. In some zip codes (22207) average days on the market was 70, while in other zip codes in Fairfax County (22312 or 22180) average days on the market was 17 and 37 days, respectively. So it looks like those expensive homes in Arlington are taking a long time to sell.
MM, there were a lot of sales in (lower-priced) 22204. So I think the mix has something to do with it.
Sales and/or the median price were up by double digits almost everywhere, YoY. Not a bad April.
With the $8k preferentially driving sales in the under $400k market, don't be surprised if those counties whose median is near that mark actually see a median price decline before the end of the "need to close by June 30th" period.
Mix, mix, mix at this point. If you want to know what's going on you have to look deeper at the NVAR reports at this point. Or at least break it down by detached and attached and number of bedrooms.
All three of the following have happened a change from distressed, deferred maintainence properties towards move-in ready, a thawing of the move-up market and jumbo market, and an increase in price for the same product since last year. All three move the median up for a combined fairly impressive gain for those counties that had been hit with double digit YoY declines in the past.
Arlington zip 22201, which includes Lyon Village and Balston saw a decrease in median home price of 11.6 percent.
So much for the theory of Smart Growth and how prices are holding up in those areas that are walking distance to Metro! Didn't we see an article on this recently, which smartly blurred the data by including entire areas not walking distance to Metro?
It would be great if someone could do a zip code by zip code comparison in Northen Virginia to see how prices are behaving by zip code, instead of counties.
dc2,
WaPo did that last year around June, the data's all there, hopefully they'll do it again. Unless they decide that the housing bubble bursting is no longer newsworthy.
dc2,
good find on 22201. 38/45 (84%) are condos, similar but slightly larger than last year's 25/33 condos (75%). So a touch of that 11% decline is mix, (moves the median 2? or 4? deeper into the condo segment). It looks more like the sweet spot at 300-350k for condos was selling better this year with 11 rather than 5 sales.
That's the thing with medians... it can always be the mix unless you're populating new lower or upper brackets that didn't exist before. So it's likely some or even most of the 11% decline is real (or at a minimum indicating where the price support is seen), but you'd need to do a comp search YoY to know more concretely.
dc2,
Spot checking the comps...
start with AR* 22201 300-350k (sweet spot for this year's sales that are pulling down the median)
picked two complexes Westview and Summerwalk allow prices from 250 to 400k just in case...
And I see no noticeable difference in the prices over the course of 2009 to 2010. A couple of low sales last year (not in April) in Westview, and one highish sale at the start and end, but that's about it.
Looks like the effect I mentioned of a lower median due to who can be pulled forward with the $8k changing the mix.
Summerwalk particularly. 3 sales in April and 4 in August-November of last year? Sounds like $8k timers to me.
One should spotcheck a higher price bracket to see if those are decreasing in price though, in case it's not just mix.
eh, spotchecking the upper bracket is harder, prices are all over the place (maybe the storey) and/or things aren't that comparable (houses). If anyone knows the area well enough to make a non-blind choice of a subdivision/condo project to check for the higher bracket, have at it.
The NVAR reports for April are now up and accurately point towards April not March reports.
I can't make hide nor hair of what happened in the FFX Cnty detached sales this April. Everything under $500k was down in number of sales, and every bracket over that was up. That'll certainly explain a 20% increase in the average and median. But why? From 300-499k didn't actually have fewer active listings than last year (under 300k most surely did, down over 44%). Condos and townhouse sales in the under $500k price range were generally up. Was the condition of what was being offered at these prices so crappy this year that many buyers would rather have a TH?
All I can come up with is a decrease in REO/distressed share, such that fewer one and done sales happened, enough to lower the total number of sales in the lower brackets, while more of the sales were "organic" sales that liquidated equity from the entry level market to be put into the move-up category.
Cara said: "WaPo did that last year around June."
Yes, but by the time they get around it is old news. Thanks.
I understand that to make a real analysis of what is going on you have to segregate the data further as you are trying to do. I also understand that the mix causes changes in median house price. This is where the C&S index could come handy if we had the data by zip.
However, for the past few months, (if memory serves me right) we have seen average medians go up in all counties except Arlington. Something is cooking there.
I know I am generalizing, but Arlington may finally see further decreases in prices. Something gotta give, particularly when you have nice inventory not so far away at much, much cheaper prices.
dc2, if you're interested, MRIS reports sales by zip code, broken down by price ranges, condos vs. other, etc. You may be able to do the analyses you want, with those data.
http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/zip_stats.cfm
Ace,
I know. I just don't have the time. That's what I have been checking. Thanks.
"DC2 said...
However, for the past few months, (if memory serves me right) we have seen average medians go up in all counties except Arlington. Something is cooking there.
I know I am generalizing, but Arlington may finally see further decreases in prices. Something gotta give, particularly when you have nice inventory not so far away at much, much cheaper prices."
Given the spectacular income gains in Arlington relative to the rest of the area, there is nothing that needs to "give" per se. Arl could see a further drop in prices, but only if the rest of the area did as well (similar to the way it was 2005-2009).
Personally, I think you may be reading a bit too much into month to month variations. Given that Arlington fell the least, I expect to see the least amount of a "snap back" in prices as you will in places that were decimated like PWC.
Also, with regard to 22201, you will see variations like -11, or even +40 percent in any given month. However, I used to track it using an annual median price to smooth out all the wild gyrations in any given month. Before I quit tracking records, for the entire period (2005-2009) annual median prices in 22201 down -0.04%. Just FYI.
CRT said: "Also, with regard to 22201, you will see variations like -11, or even +40 percent in any given month."
That is right, that is what I said. Until someone does the analysis, your assumptions are just that assumptions.
(Sorry I placed this same post in the wrong thread)
CRT, I'll say more.
Arlington has relatively high inventories compared to all other counties. This is a supply and demand equation. More analysis is needed.
I know that I am generalizing in my conclusions. I said that in my comments. That is why it would be good to do the analysis of the past say 5 months to see the trend. As I recall, median price was lower in Arlington.
I do not agree with you that all other counties have to see new lows for Arlington to go down in price. All other counties already saw their lows. Arlington may just be catching up, which is in agreement with the theory of outer suburbs being affected first and inner suburbs last.
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