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Wednesday, April 28, 2010
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31 comments:
Anon-
In reference to your comment about timing I moistly agree, the only reason why you might be able to expect to time the housing market pretty well is that it has significant amounts of momentum. If you look at the CS index prices went up every month for a decade and then fell every month for 3 years... Since then it has had two shorter cycles, but there is still a lot of momentum. So as long as housing prices are going down you can expect them to continue to the next month. If this is the case the best way to try and time the bottom is to buy a house the first month after the numbers turn positive. This will likely get you fairly close to the bottom.
So there is a little hope of trying to time the bottom, but in reality as I have said in most areas housing prices are pretty reasonable so now may be a decent time to buy
From the Irvine Housing Blog a link to LPS Monitor Loan Performance data as of the end of February. Lots and lots of interesting graphs. Sort through to make your own conclusions.
The one point that was particularly new to me was actual data on the FHA performance of the 2008 and 2009 vintages. Page 30. 2008 is just as bad as one would fear given most of those were bought well before local minimum prices and DPA still existed. 2009? Hard to say yet.
Cara-
Thanks for the data. It has some really interesting information. It really shows how you can use data to make your argument. A lot of the data is hitting all time lows (total number of delinquent people), but other data is at all time highs (the number of people who become current who were previously delinquent...)
Either way there is a bunch of interesting charts.
hb,
Yeah, it's a bit hard to parse. It looks as if HAMP is having an impact finally, but that raises the question of what percentage of that is "real" and what percentage of those will redefault given past performance.
Did you notice that VA and MD were amongst the very few states to have a notable jumbo loan presence? Just confirmation of what we already knew about Loudoun and Fairfax being consistently amongst the highest paid in the country.
The FHA and GSE total delinquencies are scary just in terms of costs to the tax payer.
Cara-
I am pretty sure that the redefault rates on HAMP have gotten much better (although they are still high). Yeah I did see the Jumbo loans page. I actually found it funny they put any states other than CA. It is interesting to know that VA has a lot, but I surely could not distinguished between whether we have a higher or lower percentage of these loans now vs the past.
I agree about the GSEs they are going to be a financial sinkhole for years to come.
Another statement of the obvious, but in case any one had any doubt that the $8k buyer credit was most effective amongst those with low downpayments get a load of this:
"Government applications for purchasing a home accounted for almost 49 percent of all purchase applications last week.”
Wow. (compared to ~25% of all purchases in 2009)
what are "Government applications"?
MM,
FHA and VA only not GSE's (since those are generally sold to the GSE's later not at point of sale).
my old building - the Platinum of the ODYSSEY - is not doing very well.
4/27/2010 $580,000
12/4/2006 $650,000 (new)
also serves as a proof that N Arl high-end condo clearly did not reach peak in 05.
tks cara.
more proof (or just proof of foolish purchase?):
4/27/2010 $295,000
6/26/2006 $425,000
1/13/2006 $360,000
paying $65K more than the previous buyer did in less than 6 months? no wonder it's a short sale...
Offtopic---Hi Cara-
Been catching up on my reading and saw you were pregnant! Congratulations! Fall babies are the best...still nice weather for strolls with the newborn, but totally off the hook for anything Thanksgiving/Christmas-related that you really didn't want to do anyway.
I have a ton of pregnancy/birth books that you are welcome to borrow, or I can email you some recs to check out from the library. I know you are a big researcher! ;)
MM, hey, I thought those were in the "immunozone"? :-)
My landscaping guy is here while I'm working at home today. While putting down some gravel and mulch, he asked me if we were planning to move. I told him only if we could find a house we liked first. His reply: "that's good; you've put a lot of money in this house!" Yeah, he didn't have to say it: "and most of it you won't get back."
MM--how big of a project are you willing to take on and do you have to be in certain zips? There is a vacant house in the neighborhood owned by a guy who is retired and living elsewhere. It would be a ton of work but maybe he's ready to sell, and it's a good size but may be his price would be well within your range. If you're interested please PM me.
Cara,
I'll be interested to see how much that declines after the credit expires. To me that might be more telling than even how much it rose (as a percentage) as a result. It'll help answer that question we've been wondering about: how much is pent up demand vs. demand being pulled forward.
And since I haven't mentioned it yet myself, congratulations on the pregnancy! My #2 is almost here, and it's still something.
Thanks Meshell!
Yes, everyone will have to come to us for holidays this year.
If anyone has any advice on balancing 3 sets of grandparents for holidays, let me know.... We were doing okay balancing two sets and kind of letting my husband's dad get the short end of the stick before (don't ask me why, I kind of stay out of it as best as I can), but suddenly it's different. First grandkid on my husband's side, and quite likely to be the only son who's going to have kids in the foreseeable future.
All are long-distance.
thanks Xpovos, and again all the best for Friday's close.
cara said
It's not just that. South County doesn't even really have the houses for them. There's some very nice stuff in Fairfax Station and Fairfax City, but not that level of high end executives all around you nice. Way above my pay-grade nice, but people who actually make this kind of money are discerning.
I think there are plenty of homes in South County to attract these execs. Tons of nice homes in Fairfax Station, Clifton, Burke, Springfield, and so on. According to the articles the average pay is $200k (meaning some will be below that) which means plenty of them even in a 4x income + money from selling Los Angeles area home will find a lot of the nicer homes in the nicest parts out of reach.
Also plenty will live in the exurbs. Loudoun County would not be the same median HHI as Fairfax County if there were not plenty of people moving there despite the fact that they could afford something in Fairfax County.
These people are from LA so they are used to traffic jams much worse than ours.
Re Anonymous the bottom is in monologue in yesterday's thread, I respond with today's Beetle Bailey:
http://www.arcamax.com/beetlebailey
(for anyone looking tomorrow or beyond look for the April 28th comic strip)
It's hard to call bottoms. I don't understand why I'm crazy to be skeptical when we still have the worst national and regional unemployment rate in my lifetime, there are more foreclosures in the market than any time in my lifetime (even ignoring the shadow inventory), federal taxes will be going up for the first time in 17 years, the gov't is lessening its use of federal defense contractors, every day there is talk of cutting the federal budget to avoid sky-high deficits (and/or raising taxes even more), and this semi-stability only came from an $8k tax credit and a gov't effort to lower interest rates and signs point to both eventually expiring.
I admire your ability to look at all of the above and feel we've hit bottom.
Va_Investor said
That's the thing; the 4th quarter of 2008 the World was coming to an end. That is when the risk taker's move in. Banks were giving houses away.
Did anyone here besides contrarian sell their stock holdings during the market dive in late 2008? I know we are not exactly the most representative group of Americans but did anyone here doubt that their stock holdings would recover? I never sold despite many articles noting how the Nikkei still has not reached prior highs or how long it took for the Dow to reach pre-Great Depression levels. I don't know anyone in real life who panicked and sold. I don't know anyone who ever doubted that America would continue being the strongest economy in the world.
I agree with your philosophy that you should buy while people are panicking. I've never felt anyone was all that worried here. Even people I know who have been laid off are pretty sanguine.
Apparently, the house mentioned above sold yesterday:
http://franklymls.com/AR7197381
Someone must have scrambled to get that $8k, lol...
What does "pent-up demand" mean?
senior executives will want to live in mclean, georgetown, great falls,
somerset, chevy chase.
Housing isn't like stock market where you fear of missing the bottom. In general, it is supposed to be a boring investment that slowly trends up with wages (or slower given the upkeep & depreciation) Now, of course - 2001-2006 wasn't a normal time where it appreciated exponentially - well in excess of wage growth.
Once we hit it, we should bounce around the bottom for a long time. One will have plenty, plenty time to ponder over and purchase what one really wants. And, no - 8k or lower interest rates are just distractions by RE agents...ignore the noise.
And, yes - we haven't hit the bottom yet...IMHO. There is a limit to how much government is able to distort the market...After l.5 trillion of MBS purchases, massive fiscal stimulus, zero interest rates, FHA/FNM/FRE intervention, HAMP modifications - we haven't gotten too far.
this looks like a good home, is there anything to be weary of with radiator heat?
http://franklymls.com/AR7275826
Wunderbar-
I don't know much about radiator heat, but one thing to worry about with that house is how close it is to 66. My guess is you can hear a lot of road noise and the other issues that come with being so close to a major highway
Spider,
None of your friends were concerned in the fall/winter of 2008? No talk of The Great Depression? No worries about $$$ in the bank or money markets? That certainly wasn't my experience when we all (half) jokingly came up with plan B.
I didn't bail on anything. I waded back into RE. Your comment about stock rebounds and bounces is well taken; unless one went into the Nasdaq at 5,000. Similar (or worse) than buying RE in 2005. Of course it all depends on what you buy, as we've seen.
You may be correct that prices will drop further over the next few years and that rate increases will not offset these drops. Only time will tell.
Radiator heat is really the best heat. We have radiators in our 1940 Arlington home and it works wonderfully. We replaced the original oil furnace when we bought the house and converted to gas. Haven't had a speck of trouble.
Agree with Tom on the radiators. Best heat ever! We had a gas boiler that was over 40 yrs old and going strong (it had been converted from coal).
tiredbubblewatcher said...
Did anyone here besides contrarian sell their stock holdings during the market dive in late 2008?
Fall 2007, right after I sold my condo. True story=)
i was mostly out of the market by early 08.
I was horrified at the lousy returns
and i met far too many bartenders with 3 condos.
When I learned about Casey Serin, i knew the system was rotten.
If i had remembered GE was a financial company i'd have been out entirely.
tbw,
If you think that just really nice expensive houses are enough then you're missing an entire cultural layer that I cannot impart in a blog entry. I grew up on the wrong side of both sets of tracks in one of the richest towns in America. Until you've attended a few 16th birthday parties that cost 5x as much as my wedding (which was admittedly extremely inexpensive) you can't really understand. All the places you mention do have some high end stock. But it's not the same. Cachet matters to these folks. They need to entertain, thus they need to be living in the right town, not just the right house in the right development. Some will indeed choose parts of Loudoun, that has it's own cachet. But you don't just need the house you need to get admitted into the right country club.
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