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Tuesday, April 20, 2010
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24 comments:
Heres a fun game:
http://www.crackshackormansion.com/
Is this house a crackhouse, or is it a 1,000,000 mansion in vancouver? I got 12 out of 16 correct.
I was wondering if someone could help me out who has experience with a NTS (Notice of Trustee's Sale), I was able to find this information from an ad
TERMS OF SALE: CASH. A bidder's deposit of $15,000.00 or 10% of the sale price, whichever is lower, will be required in cash, certified or cashier's check. Settlement within fifteen (15) days of sale, otherwise Trustees may forfeit deposit. Additional terms to be announced at sale. Loan type: Conventional.
Even though it mentions that the terms are cash, does anyone know if there is any way to finance this purchase (I have the amount for the initial deposit) for example through a mortgage since there is a 15 day window from the date of the sale (which I guess is the auction date).
dyi-
They need cash they do not care how you get it. So yes you can finance the deal as long as you talk to your banks ahead of time and are confident that they can get you the loan in 15 days.
The fact they want cash is no different than a normal sale. The buyer always wants cash not a loan, but you use a bank loan to get the cash to pay them. Does this make sense?
The Anonymous,
I want those verified, i.e. cross-linked with the mls equivalent. (I also only got 9 out of 16 correct).
Anon
I'm looking at the charts of when the bulk of these bizarro motgages were written, and when they are expected to recast.
the second wave will take until 2012 to clear, but, frankly, it's hard to know what happens when Bernanke and Paulsen and Geithner put their entire body weight on the scales.
Realistically, mortgage rates should have increased 3 years ago as risk increased. instead rates dropped. that's about 500 basis point spread induced by the Fed.
now subprime cleared and woodbridge is repriced.
CRE is starting to reprice.
prime and jumbo prime is just starting to fail.
if arlington doesn't clear by 2012 well then its immune.
but look at the california data, volume is frozen above $2M
"Pat said...I'm looking at the charts of when the bulk of these bizarro motgages were written, and when they are expected to recast."
You mean the 400 loans that were written in Arlington -- close to 200 of which have already reset? And what about the report recently that 1/2 of the remaining funny money loans went belly up (or sold or refinanced) before they had a chance to recast? How much damage will these remaining loans do?
"pat said...prime and jumbo prime is just starting to fail."
And despite that, which is true now, and has been true since 2008, and has been getting more and more true every day, median prices are just starting to rise...
pat said...
if arlington doesn't clear by 2012 well then its immune.
Thank you for the straight answer.
I will leave it to you to decide why Arl, like all of Northern Virginia, would fall (slightly) in 2005, 2005, 2007 and 2008 -- only to move higher (slightly) in 2009, and (if the first 3 months are any guide, 2010) -- And then, while the rest of Northern VA continues to improve or stabilize, in 2011 and 2012 only then will ARL decouple from the rest of N. VA and experience the dramatic, long awaited CRASH in 2012.
Anon
Arlington County overall is looking at an 10% reduction in revenue from real estate, where is that showing up?
Commercial, which reprices regularly based upon leasing.
There are 3 tiers of real estate, low, mid and upper. Upper is the stickiest, because the individuals have greater resilience, but, if Orange County and Mnahattan beach can see big hits and if famous celebrities can lose their asses on mansions, nobody is immune.
Look, I'm looking for deals, because i think a general down slide will allow good deals to pop out.
Of course, i'm looking in DC which is a different market. really nice deals have been stuck for months, not closing.
the banks have giant inventory, lets see what happens to it all.
Anon-
I think median prices are mostly rising due to mix changes. If you actually believed median than you would say Arlington fell ~25% from peak to trough which would have been bad. I clearly do not think it fell that much, but it just shows how miss leading median can be.
Personally I think the good parts of Arlington fell ~10% and will likely fall and ~5%-10% over the next 2-3 years.
"Pat said...if famous celebrities can lose their asses on mansions, nobody is immune."
Who said "immune"? Immune means nothing happens. Arl had 4 years of losses. Slight, but losses nonetheless. And therein lies the mistake you (and so many others) made. Its not like it was doing fine while the rest of the area suffered -- its not like it was just hitting later. It was being hit the whole time, but since the losses were so slight, people couldnt accept that thats all there was to it.
"housebuyer said...
Anon-
I think median prices are mostly rising due to mix changes. If you actually believed median than you would say Arlington fell ~25% from peak to trough which would have been bad"
Actually, if you went by median, it would be nowhere near as bad as -25%. I think CRT or Ace has all the annual median numbers, but I think total drop (peak to trough) in median is about -10%.
That aside, I agree median skews both down on the way down and up on the way up as the mix shifts. But since we are talking -10% peak to trough, it makes the whole thing that much more depressing since the real loss is likely less.
I was out in Chantilly on 50, near 28. I saw a sign "New Homes from the 50's".
On the other side of the road, another sign said "the Meadows of Chantilly".
I searched for Meadows of Chantilly and found this:
http://franklymls.com/FX7274931
It seems to be a mobile home.
It doesn't look that bad. Do these hold up? I've heard there's little resale value. Is that true?
tag, 867 HOA fee, is that monthly?
hey anon, look, Arlington has been decreasing about 4-5% a year on the north side, but it went up 250%, that's not a price correction.
tag,
The monthly ground rent of $867 makes this more similar to a 30-year financed price of $150k not $50k.
Mobile homes can be a good solution, but they make more economic sense for people who already own land to put them on. Hence the lack of resale value since you're only owning a depreciating (by virtue of no longer being new) asset on top of rented land.
There are some great manufactured home options for those with land though. Both low end and high end.
Anon - total median price drop (from peak to 2009) is as follows:
Arlington -9.8%
Alexandria -12.2%
Fairfax -26.3%
Loudoun -30.9%
PWC -49.4%
The first one to experience price drops (by a few months) was Arlington, the rest followed suit. Likewise, Arlington was the first to turn positive once again, and now the rest have followed suit. As you said, if we assume the next 9 months are like the first 3 months of 2010, look for them all to post mild to moderate price gains this year.
Also, FWIW, if you take into account the huge runup in prices the first part of the decade and the rundown in the second part, the total performance for the decade (2000-2009)is as follows:
Arlington +106%
Alexandria +104%
Fairfax +69%
Loudoun +60%
PWC +43%
Given the disparate income gains, its not surprising that Arlington & Alexandria outperformed the others by a wide margin. However, IMO, the discrepancy is about 10% too large. Look for the outer 3 counties to gain some or all of that discrepancy back this year.
CRT,
Have you looked at the inventory numbers lately? My fears of years of low inventory during a long-slow flat period appear to have been ungrounded. Arlington and Alexandria are already above 2009's numbers and both they and FFX Cnty are on a similar shaped trajectory to 2006 and 2007 not 2008 and 2009.
The question is are there enough buyers there at these prices to soak up a spring/summer rise in inventory. Although, if there aren't my guess is sellers will just take them off the market and try again next year.
The total percentage gains for some reason made me think of what I would write if I were an Onion writer in response to this NYTimes article on renting versus buying:
Buying now makes sense in many places
My counter piece would be,
"Houses, still depressingly expensive where you actually live"
and have interviews with folks from Seattle, San Francisco, Arlington, Bethesda etc.
Cara, in your fake story, be sure to interview some "angst ridden" long time homeowners wondering what to do with all that cash when they sell :)
In all seriousness, I have been watching inventory, and I agree it has risen more than I thought it would. I do think sales will rise some, but perhaps not enough to soak up all the inventory out there. Thus, its very possible the excess will get taken down via a combination of sellers going back into the woodwork and price drops (from the recent highs, but perhaps not low enough to test the 08-09 lows).
For the year, I do think prices still rise, but much of this could be merely a "snap back" to a more even baseline given the cavernous decline in 2008/early 2009. A key to watch will be YOY prices from May-Dec. The early (Jan-Apr) numbers were easy to beat, so its no surprise we are still seeing gains. However, once you get into May-Dec, the YOY comparisons are much harder.
If we consistently beat those numbers, it looks like the worst is over and the inventory is being managed appropriately, and basically all is well. However, I would guess we do not consistently beat those numbers and inventory will likely to continue to come in and out in fits and starts til it has finally reached an appropriate clearing level - whatever that means.
As an aside how goes the trials and tribulations of homeownership? I dont follow this blog as closely as I used to but I gather you are doing some light renovation. Everything going OK?
Thanks, CRT, for reposting. I didn't think Arl. had gone up as much as others thought (e.g., 250%) - even factoring in the drop that your #s include. And IIRC, your numbers include teardown/rebuilds and completely renovated houses. So those numbers seem right to me. Of course, there is variation among the neighborhoods and individual houses.
Cara and CRT, you may be right longer term. My hunch is that you are seeing some "sideline sellers" who waited for a "better market" and they are pushing up inventory (and sales) right now, but that this extra supply won't be sustained.
Thanks CRT,
It's going okay. The yard is a lot more time than I anticipated. I'm debating ripping up entire beds and restarting from scrath to clean out the wild onions. Which would be sad, because they're nicely mature with daffodils and tulips but I should be able to save most of those and replant them.... I knew it would take time, and my husband is living up to his promise of doing the lion's share of it, but we're going to get a lot less done on the interior at this rate.
I'm brilliantly happy with our replacement windows. They make such a difference and it's nice knowing that we picked the highest quality available as opposed to guessing what a previous owner chose.
Other than that it's really just paint. Which is a manageable semi-disaster because of the cheap job they did to sell it. 1 layer, of the thinnest latex, possibly on top of oil, throughout. Nice huh? Comes off with masking tape. Fixing the kitchen cieling is almost done, just the topcoat left (didn't paint this weekend because it was too cold out and thus too perfect for yard work). So despite the "fresh paint" we'll be primering everything and repainting the cielings not just the walls throughout. But it will get done.
Shucking out the money for all these things is painful, because it means we're not yet saving at the same rate we were when we were renting. But it will taper off. Eventually. I mean one only needs to buy a mower and rakes once. And once we have all the furniture we need, we'll have it. Not that there was a lot that was missing, but a couple hundred here, a couple hundred there adds up even spreading it out over time.
But, man, I walk or drive out of the house into our neighborhood of rolling hills, 60 year old trees, well-kept lawns and azaleas? And it's all worth it. Or even looking out my now completely green filled windows. I love this neighborhood.
"Ace said...My hunch is that you are seeing some "sideline sellers" who waited for a "better market" and they are pushing up inventory (and sales) right now, but that this extra supply won't be sustained."
Agreed. I just wish I knew if this was normal behavior or not (i.e. how much is normal and how much is it being boosted by sideline sellers returning). The only inventory records we have are for the super hot super low years, and then the slow, bloated inventory years 06-present. It would be nice to have a good baseline comparison to see what is normal.
Then again, the 90s was a pretty slow decade and probably not "normal" either. Perhaps there is no such thing as a good baseline for how much inventory should be out there.
Out of curiosity, since I may have missed it, are you still looking or did you find a new place?
"Cara said...Other than that it's really just paint. Which is a manageable semi-disaster because of the cheap job they did to sell it. 1 layer, of the thinnest latex, possibly on top of oil, throughout. Nice huh? Comes off with masking tape."
LOL. That takes me back. I had the same issue when I moved in. The single layer of non offensive "eggshell white" put on to sell the place did not stick to all surfaces & made repainting a pain. In hindsight, I would have paid more just to get them to take all that crap off, or leave it in its original color.
I recall too the worries about hemmoraging cash when you first are buying everything you need to outfit a place. When I bought, it seemed like there was "always something" I needed and I was worried it would never end. After a few months it did, and the expenses went down significantly.
Well dont sweat it because thats pretty much par for the course when you buy IMO. Glad to see you are happy with where you ended up.
oh, and CRT, you probably missed my other news, I'm pregnant. Due in late September.
Great news Cara. Congrats!!
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