The total "Northern Virginia Inventory" represents the combined housing inventory (listed on the MLS) of Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County. These numbers are extrapolated from Virgina MLS.
(Here's the spreadsheet on a separate page).
Thursday, April 1, 2010
Current Housing Inventory
Posted by Harriet at 6:04 PM
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33 comments:
STAMPEDE!!!
I thought that inventory had increased slightly but it seems I was wrong. This chart shows a drop across the board and an especially heinous one (still!) in Fairfax County.
From what my realtor tells me there is a definite uptick in prices for now with more and more people chasing less and less inventory. I should caveat that and say - in my price range (250-475). WTF-priced McMansions still don't seem to be moving much.
c-
It is down from last year, but it is up from last month. It is also the highest it has been since October. After having inventory obliterated in 2009, it looks like it is slowly coming back to a more reasonable level.
hb,
I think you have to look YOY to have any perspective.
Va_Investor said...
hb,
I think you have to look YOY to have any perspective.
I agree (generally) but at the same time, it is narrowing the gap (on a YOY basis) versus last years levels.
I still stand by my 10,000 units (+ or - 20%) at peak for 2010, but right now, we will probably come in on the low side of that...a far cry from the STAMPEDE Spider told us about where investors would run screaming from the exits and we could possibly take out the highs established in 2006.
VA-
In theory I agree you should look at this, but the market has been crazy for years so I am not sure you need to look YoY. If you look it was up from 05-07 nearly every MoM in addition to YoY. For the last year it was down nearly every MoM in addition to YoY. So seeing how often MoM numbers repeat for long periods of time I think MoM is also valuable.
I think the same is true with prices. Perhaps YoY used to be the most important way to look at it, but nowadays I think MoM is at least as relevant.
The Arlington picture still looks pretty similar to how it's looked for months. The current inventory level is only slightly lower than it was during the bursting years (e.g., 2006+) and much higher than during the bubble (e.g., 2005). Only the well-priced houses seem to be selling but those (and lower priced properties in general) seem to be selling quickly.
Anonymous said - "we could possibly take out the highs established in 2006."
I never said that we will take out 2006 highs. However, I was expecting higher inventory by now than what we have.
It is really a question of when rather than if - knowing how government delaying tactics are affecting the reality.
Alright,
First time filing taxes as a homeowner. I have a question. The interest I paid in 2009, the origination point on the loan, and the prorated real estate tax are all deductible.
What about Section L of the settlement charges page I have? In particular lines 1201-1203 are listed as city/county/state tax stamps for the deed and mortgage. Are these charges deductible as local taxes paid on my federal return?
Any guidance from this group would be appreciated.
Thank you,
My $0.02
mytwocents,
That woulg be a no on the recording fee's.
caveat - it's 5am, the dog just woke me from a dead sleep and I've had no coffee!
Another lower end story from Loudoun. I mentioned the low ball appraisal on my sale; well a second new listing come on today from the exact same model. Listed 15% over my appraisal. I'm thinking more and more that I'll wait a week or so and re-list. Chances are the two new (way higher) ones will close before my next appraisal.
I'm not leaving thousands on the table over one screwball appraiser. If I thought we were heading back down (short-term), I might try to work something out. Worst case for me, as I see it, is I end up where I am today (at the lower amount). This seller is on strike!
I agree with hb,
(cuz that never happens...)
The reason MoM is more relevant right now is that the proportion of WTF listings has been changing too dramatically this whole time.
What good is 7000 inventory in FFX Cnty if it's all overpriced?
What difference does it make that we all missed last year's bottom if what we're trying to do is buy a house without a time machine?
Basically the YoY and MoM are relevant for different purposes. That inventory is down so steeply YoY and prices were so much lower, hints to me something about the REO and SS content this year versus last. I'd wager that a large chunk of the difference in inventory is a lack of REO's on the market and lack of SS's on the market this year compared to last. It's even concievable that "normal" sellers are up. (Though I don't think that's the case).
What matters to current buyers is that spring is bringing out some more choices. Not alot, not as much as one would like, but some reasonable fraction. What also matters is that so far it does not appear as if the "stampede" of REO's has made any appearance, such that there's no sign yet that (distressed) supply pressure will help bring prices down.
With no evidence for supply to bring prices down in the spring, I would expect the usual spring pattern of rising prices to hold.
I don't think they'll "skyrocket" (10? 20? CS points) like last spring, because they're not starting low enough for that and appraisers are cautious.
On a related note to what CRT was saying this week, I don't think we can expect to see a lot of normal sellers coming out of the woods until there's confidence that a bottom really has formed. I think a lot of would-be sellers who don't live and breath RE, have not clued in to how quickly one can sell a house right now. It'll take a while for this to pervade the zeitgeist (by which time it won't be true anymore...).
cara,
It's all part of the "sticky" aspect. Normal would-be sellers are not going to sell if they think prices are too low. That leaves distress as the main supply.
In truth, it's a great time for lower-mid level to move-up. But, you would really have to be clued in to the real numbers to understand this. In other words; in 2006 I could have gotten x for my property and now it's down 20%. These types don't understand that the move-up is also down (and, in $$$ amounts, probably far more).
Someone mentioned something the other day about my 5 yr break-even statement and how I always claim to buy undermarket. Well this is not inconsistant in any way. I never pay market (whatever it happens to be). I always buy with the idea that I could get out tomorrow unscathed.
This is probably one of the reasons that I spend my time finding the "deal" and not dwelling on 100 yrs of Worldwide economic history and all minitua (sp?) of stats.
cara,
It's all part of the "sticky" aspect. Normal would-be sellers are not going to sell if they think prices are too low. That leaves distress as the main supply.
In truth, it's a great time for lower-mid level to move-up. But, you would really have to be clued in to the real numbers to understand this. In other words; in 2006 I could have gotten x for my property and now it's down 20%. These types don't understand that the move-up is also down (and, in $$$ amounts, probably far more).
Someone mentioned something the other day about my 5 yr break-even statement and how I always claim to buy undermarket. Well this is not inconsistant in any way. I never pay market (whatever it happens to be). I always buy with the idea that I could get out tomorrow unscathed.
This is probably one of the reasons that I spend my time finding the "deal" and not dwelling on 100 yrs of Worldwide economic history and all minitua (sp?) of stats.
Va_investor,
RE is your occupation.
For most on here it's their interest/hobby or something they feel the need to follow until it's time for them to buy so they don't make a collosal mistake out of ignorance of the conditions.
If you're buying for the long term, getting in X% under market won't necessarily save you. (I think it will now, but it wouldn't have in PWC, Loudoun or most of FFX in 2006).
If there's things we talk about here that don't interest you, don't read them.
VA Investor,
Thanks. I figured as much. Doesn't hurt to ask though. :)
My $0.02
cara,
...if there is something that doesn't interest you...
right back atcha.
No need to state it.
Va_investor,
Then read the unstated part, it doesn't interest you, fine, but why insult it?
Va_investor,
Or rather. We get that you're mad at the buyer who believed the appraiser when Penn Fed? came back and said that the home you had under contract with them wasn't worth the contract price. It sucks, and you're pissed, and you are probably right that (a) any other random appraiser probably wouldn't have been a stumbling block and (b) that you'll be able to sell it for the price you want shortly.
But it still sucks. It's a delay, and unneeded, and stupid given that the buyer had no beef with that price when they put it in their own offer. They wanted the house, they liked the price, they just weren't willing to get another appraisal, and didn't have the self-confidence to know that the price they had offered was actually a good one.
I understand you're annoyed right now. But I'd really appreciate it if you refrain from taking it out on us in random side-swipes. Thanks.
Va Investor said
"These types don't understand that the move-up is also down (and, in $$$ amounts, probably far more).
I guess I'm one of "those types" because I don't understand what you were trying to say. I assume that a move-up is someone trying to buy a bigger house and/or a nicer neighborhood at a price they can afford. Assuming that they don't pay significantly above the appraisal (which is the nonprofessional's best bet at an objective opinion) why would this be "down"?
c,
What she's refering to is that the price of your current house and the house you'd like to move up to are both down from peak prices.
While the low-tier had the highest percentage increases and losses, the mid and upper tiers had smaller percentage bubbles. However, in terms of dollar amounts, not percentages, it's likely that now is still a way better time to make a move-up than it was during the peak.
For illustration purposes only:
Peak:
3bdr, 2ba SFH $500k
5bdr, 3ba SFH $700k
Now:
3bdr, 2ba SFH $400k
5bdr, 3ba SFH $600k
They've both dropped 100k, which is a smaller percentage of the larger price.
If your remaining mortgage on the 3/2 is/was 200k, then you could still make the trade-up and your new mortgage wouldn't be any different than it would have been at peak, except that all your transaction costs will be lower. That's $100k on both ends that you don't have to pay percentage fees on, so a savings of at least $6k-10k. Which is not much, but it's not nothing.
If the drop on the higher priced home is more numerically, then you're even better off. (Anything above a current price of $560k wouldn't violate the "rule" that the worst drops have been in the low priced homes).
cara,
It was your comment, not my appraisal situation. Some here go on and on about MBS and GSE and blah, blah, blah. I don't respond that I'm not interested. I JUST DON'T RESPOND. Comprehendo?
Va_investor,
"This is probably one of the reasons that I spend my time finding the "deal" and not dwelling on 100 yrs of Worldwide economic history and all minitua (sp?) of stats."
This is not a comment?
cara,
One comment in a couple hundred? And an important one. You are free to ignore it.
Burn't toast today?
Let's hear some more about Burke.
Va_investor,
Nothing new to report.
Thanks Cara
cara,
Sounds suspiciously like a comment, but I won't comment that I'm not interested in the comment.
VA_Investor, I'll buy what you're selling for 70% of your current asking price. It's probably fair and an ample cure for your bubble nostalgia blues.
Well Kev,
Fat chance. 2 new listings for the same unit in the past few days. One 15% above my appraisal and the other 20%. What makes you think appraisers are any smarter as a group than they were 5 yrs ago?
Hey Kevin,
Your 70% off comment reminded me of a flip I sold around 2000.
Guy walks in the door and says you are overpriced, the house down the street was only 399K (60K less).
My reply - "hey, go buy it! Ooops that's right, it sold in 1 day. Heck, I'da bought it myself at that price". This is how I deal with low-ball comps. My place sold the next day -full price.
Appraisers are now working for the lender, not hand-picked by the broker or agent to give a thumbs-up on every rip-off would-be sale out there, like what you were hoping would happen with your property.
I've rejected offers in the past that I thought were too low. It's all a big game. Your house is only worth what somebody is willing to pay for it. In your case, that somebody was using the bank's money and the bank probably had a good reason to nix the deal to protect their interests. I honestly feel sorry for appraisers today. Everybody is living in bubble land 2006, and being honest will bring the wrath of real estate agents, brokers, buyers, and sellers.
Kevin All lenders now use appraisal management companies to assign appraisers. The large, national lenders take a rake off on the appraiser's fee. If an appraisal costs $450, the appraisal management company gets a cut, the large, national lender gets a cut and the appraiser gets what is left or about $250. In Virginia it is illegal to give the rake off to the lender. So the Virginia chartered lenders can't take the rake off. The appraiser gets $350 to $400. Because of this the Virginia lenders can give the appraisal management company a list of the appraisers to assign to their cases. The good established appraisers are on these lists. The bad appraisers are not. So if you have a big national lender you get an appraiser who gets paid less and has no incentive to do anything but plug in any numbers into a computer program.
Kevin,
I just posted this on the other thread. The higher of the two new listing (exact same model as mine) went UC in one day. 20% higher than my appaisal. Try to give this a fair thought and not jump on my greed and trying to rip people off. As I said, I have been on the other side of this too.
My would-be purchaser is literally in tears and has moved her app to a different lender. Has this appraiser really "saved" her from herself?
The "newest" comp is 30K over her appraisal. I gather arms length transactions don't result in FMV? I'll have to disregard the tried and true definition of FMV.
Our contract price is still 50% less than peak prices. Should it be lower?
p.s. are pent fed appraisers inhouse? Aren't the loans portfolio?
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