The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index for the month of January was released yesterday.
"'The report is mixed. While we continue to see improvements in the year-over-year data for all 20 cities, the rebound in housing prices seen last fall is fading. Fewer cities experienced month-to-month gains in January than in December 2009, on both a seasonally adjusted and unadjusted basis.' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. 'Moreover, in four cities – Charlotte, NC, Las Vegas, Seattle and Tampa – prices reached new lows following the financial crisis. Tampa and Las Vegas experienced some of the largest gains and declines in this cycle, while Charlotte and Seattle saw much more modest price booms and relatively late peaks. On a brighter note, San Francisco and Minneapolis are 15.2% and 12.9% above their trough values. Other recent data on housing also paint a mixed picture. Housing starts continue at extremely low levels, recent reports of home sales suggest the market remains difficult, and concerns remain about further foreclosures and a large shadow inventory of unsold homes. We are in a seasonally weak part of the year, but given the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price data reported today, we can’t say we’re out of the woods yet.'"
11 comments:
Buy now folks, because Robert told us that CS prices would explode up to 188 a mere 2 months from now. There is as close to a "sure thing in real estate that you are ever going to find! Glug, glug, glug....
Anon-
Haha. Seeing that it uses a rolling three month average that means the next couple months need to be up about 10% and 20% respectively. That sounds reasonable :)
My best guess is we continue to lose between 0-1%/month for the next year. This would bring the index down about 10 points where I thin it will stabilize.
hb,
Yup, we're still going to be on YoY positive for a while. I'm less confident about us sticking with MoM losses continually throughout the year though. I'd say anything in the +/-1% range each month is possible. Well, +1% would take a while with the 3 month rolling average, but it could still happen by June.
Cara-
I might be wrong, but my guess is that the loss of government support will be a bigger deal than the spring buying season, which is why I expect MoM losses to continue. Although seeing that we are way above last years prices I agree positive YoY numbers will be around for a while
hb,
I think with the sense that buyers have already missed the bottom, spring will be big. Especially in the 300-600k range. Which is the bulk of the market anyway.
That's just my thought/worry. I'm not sure why I'm afraid for prices to rise, but I am.
Cara-
We will definitely see, but I am not overly worried about that scenario. Maybe you are afraid your taxes will go up :-p
Anonymous,
I also said housing starts would be double in the second half of 2009 vs. the first half. Wrong. At least save your victory dance until the clock has expired.
Robert said
I also said housing starts would be double in the second half of 2009 vs. the first half. Wrong. At least save your victory dance until the clock has expired.
You have done plenty of premature victory dances of your own. Like when the unemployment rate starting going down last year. Now it's gone back up. I noted in earlier downturns that the rate usually oscillated a few times before starting to go down consistently.
"At least save your victory dance until the clock has expired."
Really? You still think it has a chance to hit 188 two months from now. Seems to me the smart move is to now admit "yeah I screwed the pooch on that one", and move on. However, thats just me.
So what say you? Still feel good about 188 in 2 months time?
TBW, I did ask you to concede on the 8-9% unemployment rate for Virginia. I assume by your comment that you are still confident in your prediction.
Anon, no, 188 is looking early. No excuses.
"Robert said...Anon, no, 188 is looking early. No excuses."
Nicely done Robert - a short and sweet "I was wrong" without any whining, revisionist history, or deletions. Contrarian (as well as a few others here) could learn a thing or two from you as to how to come clean when things dont go as you predicted.
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