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Thursday, March 4, 2010
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18 comments:
A notable CR post
Unemployment and Delinquency Rate by State
At 6.7% unemployment and 10.2% delinquency we are right on the trend line. I would hazard that this implies that our delinquencies are now primarily income loss driven. Or, as much so as any other state.
Does this mean that the prices will stay stagnant or might still have some room to fall?
sehrwunderbar,
I think it means that continued additions to the shadow inventory will depend on the economic conditions and state of our local job market.
Whether prices will fall depends on how quickly the shadow market is released. This just says how much bigger the shadow inventory will get. You could argue that the larger the overhang the more pressure to release it.
I would say it's more like... If you want to know how long you'll have to wait before prices rise again at all in nominal terms how long unemployment remains high (relatively speaking to our norm) will give you the answer.
Second-order terms in that will include the fact that since prices won't be rising SSs will continue for longer simply as people need to move.
It's all in my overarching theme, of worry about the prime loans. The exotic mortgages are just eye-candy. Worry about prime where the bulk of all mortgages are.
The problem with state-wide data for Virginia is that Virginia is a much different state at different ends. So is Maryland, but the differences are much less pronounced, and the overall effect is less.
We have 6.7% unemployment for the state, but Richmond, Roanoke and Danville are all at least 8.9% as of December's (NSA) BLS data. Virginia Beach is lower than the state result, but then Manassas is higher.
Jobs -> Money -> Housing stock.
I don't think Arlington is an 'immunozone', as nothing is immune to market forces. But the 4% unemployment rate there means the market forces hurting everyone else is much weaker.
Well, I have noticed more >$400k houses coming on the market in the last 2 months or so in Alexandria.
I mean more houses that are less than $400k.
Another thing I notice and wonder about is that on craigslist it appears in the time I have been looking for a home to rent (last 3-4 months or so) there have been more and more single family homes and townhomes coming up for rent.
I'm not sure if this area normally has this, since I have only been here a short while, or if that means more people are opting not to sell and waiting it out.
sehrwunderbar,
More REO's and Shorts or more regular sales?
More than usual in spring or more than in December/January?
There's definitely a detectable uptick in the inventory on the Virginia MLS site in FFX Cnty, Alex and Arl. Looks consistent with seasonality at this point. But more homes for sale certainly never "hurts" prices from the buyers point of view.
Cara, I meant that more homes on craigslist are coming up for rent/short term lease, not under the real estate/for sale tab.
As far as frankly, seem to be more regular sales with a few shorts and foreclosures.
http://franklymls.com/default.aspx?m=R&l=0&h=400K&s=active=+alexandria+detached+(2bdr,+3bdr,+4BDR,+5bdr,+6bdr,+7bdr)
...in Rosslyn during lunch yesterday:
"Let me explain something to you. Buying a home here today in this market is like me facing a choice between two paths. One path absolutely has mines on it. But I have a *fairly* good mine detector made by the lowest bidder. The other path is longer, safer, and seems to be well used and I am confident it doesn't have a single mine on it." That is what the Washington D.C. Metro real estate market is to me. Two paths. One less riskier than the other."
The conversation was between two military types who were eating lunch with me discussing Rent vs. Buy. Both are sitting on a pile of cash but have decided to rent since they expect to be in the area for some time.
I couldn't argue with his logic since I am also averse to minefields.
Pun intended...:)
.
TN, good analogy. Minefield indeed.
Greetings, all. New poster here, but I've been reading this blog for a few weeks. Trying, as everybody else is, to see where this market is heading. I rent a house in north Silver Spring Maryland now, but have been eyeing the Burke/Springfield area.
Owner is looking to sell house I am currently in...it's a decent place, but lacks a few features I'm looking for. Such as, it has a one car garage. Does anybody have a ballpark on how much it would cost to demolish a one-car garage (it was added onto the house separately) and build a two car garage? I realize this can vary significantly...just looking for a very rough idea...
New listing in N. Arlington today...
This house sold for $560,000 on 9/25/2009 with a FHA loan amount of $549,857.00.
http://franklymls.com/AR7130640
The buyers could only come up with 2% down?
The windows which go completely down to the floor in the living room seem bizarre\unpractical to me. Plus the fireplace location seems odd.
Now the same house is on the market for $624,900?
http://franklymls.com/AR7269691
WhenToBuy: Does anybody have a ballpark on how much it would cost to demolish a one-car garage (it was added onto the house separately) and build a two car garage?
There are a wide range of methods you can choose to control costs if this is your goal.
You can demo the existing garage yourself and provide a greenspace for a General Contractor to come in and build the replacement. Demo should be within anyone's skillsets if you're handy with tools. Alternately, you can demo, hire day labor help and pour the slab for the new garage yourself. And then hire a GC to come in and do the build. Each incremental step you do yourself saves you money.
Bottom line what I do when I want to control costs is to identify and separate the lowest risk work from the highest risk work and manage accordingly.
But if you're just looking for a per square foot Rough Order of Magnitude (ROM) number then I would say in your area $110 per finished square foot for a garage, soup to nuts (demo to new build). Generally you want 9 feet per car plus two feet in front and back for minimum space for a garage.
$22K ballpark would be my ROM guess for this area, rough finish with minimal electrical and siding exterior. Add 5% for taxes, fees, licenses, permits and the usual and ordinary leeching from local governments. Add 35% to base cost if you need a mason for a brick exterior.
demo costs, 2 days of work, 2 laborers, $10/hr plus trash haul $400. Add in some misc costs, figure it's no more then $1000.
but a custom builder will want $50/SF
to build a garage.
you however, can get a kit garage.
those are $20/SF plus foundation.
One year ago today, MM commented in awe as the Dow dropped to 6652.
In response, Contrarian penned this screed (which I saved before he went on his massive comment deletion campaign) as follows:
"Are you surprised?
I guess denial is a wonderful coping tool, eh MM?
BTW, the Dow was up around 9000 at that time.
Others also suggested I was way off base.
The question now, is:
At what point, if ever, will TedK, The Anonymous, MM, etc., accept the obvious?
And, if for some reason it has not become obvious, why not? :-)
Have you all thought about starting a 12 step program and calling it A-D-D Anonymous?
Members would include those who chose to simply sit there during the greatest collapse of wealth in history and watch their Assets Deflate Daily.
Sad, but true. So sad. People choose to be victims, martyrs, instead of dealing with life on life's terms. Truly amazing.
3/5/09 4:47 PM"
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=4787878578920468587&postID=141772809946587924
As we all know, the very next DAY the dow hit bottom and started back up on one of the most incredible rebounds in history. Fortunately, neither I, nor MM, nor TedK choose to "accept the obvious" and "deal with life on life's terms" by selling all our stocks and going all cash like Contrarian.
Hopefully, no one else listened to him at what, in hindsight turned out to be one of the absolute worst times to sell your stock.
unemployment
Wow it looks like the snow storm effect was very weak. I had been hearing how February was going to much worse than expected for weeks due to the huge snow storms. It looks like that was all talk. I am pretty sure we are actually going to see payrolls rise next month for the first time in a couple of years.
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