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Friday, March 19, 2010
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30 comments:
how high will this Ballston REO SFH go? i can hear investors working on their phones right now...
...BANK OWNED SINGLE FAMILY DETACHED!!!EXCELLENT LOCATION, WALK TO METRO (ed: 0.7-mi), SHOPPING, SCHOOLS, RESTAURANTS, PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION, MALL!!!CLOSE TO MAJOR ROUTES!!!SPACIOUS CAPE COD WITH 4BR, 3 BATHS IN NEED OF SOME REPAIR!!TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS EXCELLENT PRICE!!!!!
Is this shadow inventory? Now listed for sale for the 4th year in a row.
May 07: listed
Aug 07: delisted nosale
Mar 08: listed
Aug 08: delisted nosale
Sep 09: listed
Jan 10: delisted nosale
Mar 10: listed
Here is a <$500k SFH on a .5 acre lot, walking distance(.6 mile walk) to the metro...
http://franklymls.com/FX7283562
gte claims a lack of proper underwriting; I'd like informed comments (not "I typed my info into bankrate...").
Housing Market Will Fall 10%-15% When Fed Stops Subsidizing Home Prices
"Over the longer term, we will find out..."
Henry Blogett???? How about Abbey Joseph Cohen???
Don't buy spider, who cares anyway? I've already caught any short term upside by purchasing reo's in the last 2 yrs. My tenants can stay however long it takes. Big deal - 5 or 10%
BLOOD IN THE STREETS!!!!
What about that underwriting? And the fact that lower end is/was up to 70% off peak. Huge risk buying at those numbers!
Wait!!! I've got an idea! Ask Dave Ramsey!
TBW, as I mentioned before (maybe you missed it) is that I am now, once again, mid lease. If I do buy now, and I cant find a subtenant, are you willing to fork over 6-7 months rent?
As far as your deletions, I do recall that most of them were school related. However, there seemed to be more (related to other topics) that seem to not be there -- perhaps I am mistaken.
Anon,
If the right deal came around, I'd bail on that lease in a heart beat. Google "mitigate damages.
"And no, I can't get a conventional loan unless I buy a new personal residence. Business loans are all I can get and I have 30yrs work, tons of assets and over 800fico."
VA whining about how they can't speculate . . . . oh the horror, the horror! Spare me.
Lending today is like prices today, cheap/tight compared to 2005 over-valued/loose compared to history. You really think lending is tight like the mid-80s with 17% IR?
Lower end off 70%? I have seen very, very few off that much and the ones that I've seen were completely trashed. I have seen a good amount 50-60% off.
So run this by me again, housing goes up 200%, is off by 50% and that's a deal, it's still up 50%! Even in the worst hit areas the farthest back prices are at here were ~00-01. That's a steal?
You must have a different idea of a deal. Yeah that may be a fair value and you can make money on it, but it's not a steal.
A deal is some places in Florida that are back to the mid 90s or worse.
In real value terms most locations have much further to go.
VA you seem to always advocate debt or OPM. What is the endgame? When you die, pass the debt on to your kids, or have them sell it back to the bank?
My guess is if the truth were really know, you're probably so flipping far in debt and leveraged up . . . 5 mill? Oh you can justify it by having 500k in assets. Or if you operate like a bank just claim the assets are worth a couple mill. Yet, if you tried to sell them they would be worth 25% of that.
Operating just like our whole economic system, nothing but air. You've obviously survived so far, so congrats, you have used the system well; most people can not.
Some day the piper must be paid, either by you or your kids, or if you're really a punk . . . society through either a devaluation or default.
gte,
I can get all the loans I want, just not at 5% for 30yrs. I'd be a better bet than 99% of borrowers out there.
You just can't or don't know how to make money in RE. Fine, do something else. Hell, if a 10 or 20 or 30% RE correction would affect me to any great deal, I'd act like you, too (though it's highly unlikely I'd be in that situation).
VA_Investor,
Can you explain please, how you will not be affected by the big housing correction if it happens? Accompanied by falling rents of course. I certainly understand the value of due diligence and segment selection, but if you do not cashflow, you do not cashflow.
gte said -
"So run this by me again, housing goes up 200%, is off by 50% and that's a deal, it's still up 50%!"
It hasn't even corrected that much...most areas are STILL at something like 200-225% from early 2000 prices.
Not yet anyway....
And, this applies to Vienna, Herndon, Oakton, many parts of Fairfax, Reston, Great Falls etc.
I don't follow McLean, Arlington. But, I am sure - they haven't even corrected that much.
I can't comment on Springfield, Lorton, Manassas...
Well, it has been ten years since 2000 spider, one would expect some appreciation.
I am not saying that I think we are totally done with the aftemath of the bubble, but 10 years is a pretty long time.
Leroy, Of course, I didn't mean there shouldn't have been appreciation. But...
..You know what mean.
I expect we end up at 2002-2003 levels to adjust for the wage growth.
I think we are currently somewhere around 2005 levels or so. Ways to go knowing 2002-2005 had huge jumps in YoY prices.
Now, it could happen in nominal or real terms...likely it could meet in the middle.
However, given inflation indicators, it is more likely we go quite a bit far in real terms..
cheryl is investing for cash flow so
she's pretty careful about these.
There are some good deals out there, depends where you are looking, last year, there were phenomenal deals in woodbridge and Manassas.
I don't want to manage a property out there.
Fewer properties inside the beltway have penciled out as sound cash flow vehicles.
Ace,
I think most here put way too much emphasis on real estate cycles. Second, if we drop another 20-30% much, much more is going to be wrong with the economy than real estate.
If you go thru life paralyzed by the worst case scenario, I doubt you (not you personally) would ever buy anything. There are deaths, divorces, job losses, illness, etc. to worry about. RE won't drop drastically in a vacuum.
I won't find a stock market crash, a job loss, an illness, etc. to materially affect my situation relative to many other higher net worth individuals.
In the unlikely event that houses and rents deflate extensively without deflation in other goods and products, I have sufficient cash-flow to handle this. I would think this would be true with most people who avoided paying peak prices.
Sure, my net worth would suffer but no more than any catastropic event.
Your premise is flawed in my opinion in that I believe the worst is over. Dropping prices prices, coupled with fairly stable rents and low interest rates have combined to provide a fairly safe environment imo.
I certainly take all efforts to purchase well under FMV, allowing me an out if necessary. However I cant think of a time in 25-30yrs where a sale would be necessitated by economic reasons.
My exposure is far more than one or two properties. The wild speculation of my debt to asset ratio is laughable. Those numbers should be reversed and multiplied.
VAI, ??? Maybe you meant to address Konstantin?
Anyone going to any open houses this weekend?
I've been following this blog for awhile now and this is my first time posting.
It looks like the entire interior of this house was renovated. How much do you think it would cost for a renovation like this? I've mainly been keeping up with townhome prices, so is this SFH home priced reasonably?
http://franklymls.com/FX7285103
Sorry Ace!!!
Poppy - Although the pricing is way over assessment, your best bet is to look over sold comparables. A quick search didn't turn up much that seemed exactly equivalent lately, though less than a year ago some similar houses were going for around 440. According to the tax records, the square footage is under 1700 which seems awfully small for a property claiming 6 bedrooms and three and a half baths. Other houses claiming that amount usually run 2500 - 3000 sq ft. I recommend you go look at it and form your own opinion.
Poppy, I looked it over and think the only thing to question is the roof. You can't judge a roof from a picture. My husband and I have renovated 5 homes. Its not easy, fast or even that cheap if you charge for your own labor! The cocrete is good shape, the lot size decent. Ball park guestimates..outside painting 3-5 thousand..depends on how much scraping, rotten wood and work involved. Double garage doors $600, windows..at least 5,000. The kitchen 15,000, inside paint for 3 levels $1000 hiring it done add at least 3,000. Masterbath 3,000, carpet 3,000. The harwoods are beautiful, refinished add another 500 to 1500 hundred. Depends on who refinishes and the floor condition. I personally would add 50 to 60,000 dollars of value added to the home from the improvements if they look as good as they do in the pictures. Most people under estimate the amount of time, money and effort required to fix up a home. I've done everything from setting comodes, tiling cleaning grout and knocking down walls. Its work. Painting sucks..the taping, the ceilings, around windows, doors, light switches, cabinets.its tedious and hard work to do it right.
Poppy...priced at 540..assessed at 440..rough..440 +60 + 30,000 real estate fee...My initial offer would not be more than 515,000 with 3% closing costs. Oh they will counter but I think this would get you to a place where it could be purchased for what its worth.
Poppy,
It's an ambitious price but not unreasonable for Springfield/Burke. It looks like it's in the West Springfield High School District. It'll be kind of annoying during the widening of Rolling Road, but not too bad, so long as you want to turn south in the mornings. It's right close to the Whole Foods and a decent Giant. All in all a convenient location and just tucked far enough away from through streets.
I'd compare it to what else you can get for that price in Burke/Springfield. That's just above the price range I was looking at, so I can't definitively say.
400-600k 5,6 bdr, Springfield, Burke
At first glance I'd be hesitant to pay over 500k for it because of it's small size, but you'd need to do a thorough inventory of the condition and size of all the available and recently sold homes. Running that same search for solds give you 141 solds from 2009/2010 to look through.
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