WTOP: Call for help from County Schools:
School systems in Fairfax, Arlington and Alexandria are calling on the community to help clear sidewalks so children can get back to school.... Fairfax County is asking for volunteers to help shovel out the snow and ice so school can resume.
Any volunteers can report to the school in their neighborhood any time between 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. with shovels, snow blowers or other snow clearing tools".
42 comments:
After paying for 12yrs of private school without getting any refund from the County (what does it cost per student? 5-7K from our RE taxes?), me and my shovel will sit this one out.
From:
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/02/15/business/15housing.html
"“People are buying to get that tax credit, to get some reserve money. They’re saying, ‘If something happens, I will have a little bit of money to fall back on,’ ” said Denny Davis of Horizon Bank in Elkhart. “That’s not healthy.”
The programs favor first-time buyers, who have the fewest resources to bring to a deal. Heather Stevens, a 23-year-old nurse here, is closing on a three-bedroom house this week. Since her loan was insured by the Federal Housing Administration, she had to put down only 3.5 percent of the $74,900 purchase price.
“It was a breeze to get approved,” she said.
The sellers are covering her closing costs, which agents say is often the case here. That meant Ms. Stevens had to come up with only the $2,600 down payment, which still took all her savings.
But the best part is the $7,500 tax credit. She will use that to remodel the kitchen. “If it wasn’t for the credit, we would have waited to buy,” said Ms. Stevens, who is getting married this year. "
While this is Elkhart, Indiana, please, don't be naive in thinking this isn't going on here. This is precisely why I don't want to buy right now. I'm competing with people like this. No way, no how this lady should be buying. I can't win. Any takers on how long before she sticks the taxpayers with the default?
I would have been glad to help. I live three doors down from an elementary school in FFX. Unfortunately, I get to spend the day shoveling the 8 foot drifts off my sidewalks (I have a corner lot) that VDOT deposited there (and on my lawn) yesterday, after I had spent a week diligently shoveling said walks.
Snow removal has been a disaster. I lay blame on both FFX and VDOT. As I mentioned, I live 3 doors down from a school and the first plow our street saw was on Saturday afternoon. By that time, there was 6 inches of packed snow/ice on the street. The bumps on the road are now so big they would make the olympic organizers jealous.
It may be a long time before I vote for an incumbent supervisor.
Let the little kids walk through the snow. It will give them some character. Heck, make them do it barefoot. According to my Dad, he walked to school every day, up the mountain, with only rags for shoes.
I'm with GTE, the market is still
packed with nutball buyers.
i'd rather wait until it eases up.
i'm curious if the Oil companies will put on a price squeeze. Do they think a price squeeze in August will let them crucify the Dems?
Pat-
I don't think the oil companies have much to do with oil prices. They produce very little oil compared to OPEC, Brazil, Venezuela... and prices are international. I think oil will continue its recent range of 65-85 per barrel for the foreseeable future, but who knows.
HB
in a tight market, marginal suppliers set marginal prices. Now i'm okay with $5/GaL Gas
It hoses conservatives more then us city dwelling liberals. When gas was $4+ i used to grin at every SUV i saw at a gas station
gte811i,
How do you know that $2300 wasn't 10% of her gross income for a year? Maybe, she has good credit and a stable job. Why do some of you always assume unless someone has an enormous downpayment they will default? I know people who put down 3.5% and they didn't default.
housebuyer, I'm not sure to whom you're referring by "they" but the US is the world's #3 oil producer.
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph/ene_oil_pro-energy-oil-production#source
My casual observation (maybe there are data on the web somewhere) is that when barrel prices have risen (say, over the last 10 years or so) oil company (e.g., ExxonMobil, Texaco) profits have also risen.
Consumer Reports has a study of oil prices and argued the following (in 2004):
"After nearly two decades of the Federal Trade Commission (FTC) pursuing a policy of
allowing massive consolidation in the oil and gas industry, the last five years has seen the
prices that consumers pay for gasoline, natural gas, heating oil and propane soar.
Consequently, industry profits since the beginning of the new millennium are well above
historical levels. Now the Government Accountability Office (GAO), the government’s
nonpartisan accountant, has taken a look at the FTC’s merger review process. The GAO
found that mergers had resulted in price increases."
http://www.consumersunion.org/pub/FTCBOOKf.pdf
HayfieldGrad,
It may not be true in every individual case, but there is evidence of a relationship between down payments and default rates. Here is only one study but I am sure there are others showing similar findings:
http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/5370/
"Abstract
Previous research has focused on equity as a prime determinant of mortgage default propensities. This paper extends the analysis of mortgage default to include mortgages that require no down payment from the purchaser. A continuous time hazard model is used to estimate the conditional probability of a serious delinquency, or a claim, as a function of a host of standard control variables, and indicators for the presence and source of the down payment. The data consist of a nationally representative random sample of about 5,000 FHA insured single family mortgages endorsed in Fiscal Years 2000, 2001, and 2002, observed through September 30, 2006, and samples of about 1,000 FHA loans each from the Atlanta, Indianapolis, and Salt Lake City MSAs in the same time period. The results indicate that borrowers who provide down payments from their own resources have significantly lower default propensities than do borrowers whose down payments come from relatives, government agencies, or non-profits. Borrowers with down payments from seller-funded non-profits, who make no down payment at all, have the highest default rates. Additionally, borrowers who do not make down payments from their own resources tend to have higher loss given default in the small subset of loans that had completed the property disposition process."
@Hayfield,
Oh please, give me a flipping break.
Buying a house with a down payment of $2600 which took ALL of her savings.
Using all of one's savings to buy a house, especially when the amount of savings is so pitifully small as $2600, is financially reckless and if the banks don't or won't see that they are stupid and if you don't see it . . . well.
Yes people CAN use 3.5% down payment and get away with it. That's just like my 2 year-old son, he CAN balance himself standing without holding onto anything on the edge of my desk chair. However, I would be a stupid, irresponsible parent if I didn't reprimand him seriously striking the fear of God into him for doing it.
Just because you can do it and get away with it doesn't mean you should . . .
And I don't care if it is 10% of one year of savings; a financially wise person would realize it's a stupid move and they would be better served saving just a little bit longer (i.e. 2-3 years . . . oh my the horror she would be 26 instead of 23 buying!). She's getting more back on tax credits than she's saved! When if she thought about the basic economics of it and realized she's not getting 7.4k back, she's buying a house for 74.9k when it's real value is at best 67.5k.
We are completely sunk as a country if this type of financial wisdom pervades the majority.
gte81 said:
"But the best part is the $7,500 tax credit. She will use that to remodel the kitchen"
silly 23 yr old nurse. She should of purchased an $80,000 home---she'd get an additional $500 to remodel the kitchen...she'd only need to come up with $2,800 down, so she'd "pocket" an extra $300 by buying a house that costs $5,100 more...lol
what are the chances that houses in the $50K-$80K range are inflated as a result of the sliding scale for the home buyer credit? hmmmm
pat,
Now i'm okay with $5/GaL Gas
Well,
in th 1970s it was $1/Gal and cars averaged 9 miles to the gallon. So to go 90 miles was a non-inflation indexed $9.
Today many cars get 30 miles to the gallon. with $3/Gal, going 90 miles costs a non-inflation indexed, you guessed it, $9.
What were wages like in the 1970s? what are they today? for all those complaining about the price of petro.....
gte81 said:
"But the best part is the $7,500 tax credit. She will use that to remodel the kitchen"
silly 23 yr old nurse. She should of purchased an $80,000 home---she'd get an additional $500 to remodel the kitchen...she'd only need to come up with $2,800 down, so she'd "pocket" an extra $300 by buying a house that costs $5,100 more...lol
what are the chances that houses in the $50K-$80K range are inflated as a result of the sliding scale for the home buyer credit? hmmmm
Buck
"Inflation Adjusted, Oil has been
pretty steady until the last 6 years.
Wages for Blue Collar types have been stagnant for 35 years.
And SUV's get 8-12 MPG"
pat,
Yes, right. I'm quite certain gas prices don't affect prices of any other service or product.
Laughing at SUV's? Laughing at you!
And when I mean 2600 small, I'm not denigrating someone's living or wages, just merely that even in low-cost of living areas 2600 won't go far. She prob. makes 30-40k, nothing wrong with that, and based on her income she could probably afford the house. But to do any work on a car (transmission work, tune-up etc.) can cost 500 bucks. Tires will cost you at least 500. If anything happens she is sunk and will have to resort to credit cards (if she hasn't already) and the spiral downward begins.
Delayed gratification, save for a few more years and stave yourself from ruin. Living on the edge is no way to live. One small step from ruin.
Predictions on Mortgage Rates after the Fed Stops Buying
Some quotes - Calculated Risk:
# Guy Cecala, publisher of Inside Mortgage Finance. "My opinion is that rates will go up a full percentage point initially," meaning that 30-year fixed conforming loans, now hovering around 5 percent, would hit 6 percent.
# Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH Associates, which compiles mortgage loan data, thinks that rates will slowly rise to about 5.75 percent after the Fed withdraws.
# Julian Hebron, branch manager at RPM Mortgage's San Francisco office, anticipates a bump up to around 5.5 percent by summer ...
# Christopher Thornberg, principal at Beacon Economics in Los Angeles [said] "Clearly, when they stop printing all that money, it's going to be a shock to the system. I have to assume that when they pull back on it, it will cause a 100- to 200-basis-points rise" to rates of 6 percent or 7 percent ...
gte,
We all know what happened after cash for clunkers expired....sales plunged back right after
This is a bigger disaster waiting to happen - MBS purchases stops in March, 8K ends in April. You include the interest rate spike & we have absolute drama waiting to happen. After all - 22 trillion $ housing market can only be held in the mid-air temporarily.
Spider
If rational pricing returns, i'll be happy.
if price appreciation returns to 4% annually bubble adjusted, I can buy a place.
gte, not only might there be car emergencies, but houses are always needing something (and if something breaks, you can't put it off). Does she have a pet or two? How about an unexpected vet bill? And all the other unexpected events that can occur...
It's insane to buy a house without a cushion of savings to take care of these needs. I can only hope that her wedding does take place and the spouse has some savings that both she and he took into account when deciding to buy this house.
Pat-
We are not in that tight of a market. Currently there are several million barrels a day being held of the market to support prices.
Ace-
Yes the US produces a lot of oil, but we consume over double what we produce so "they" was talking about countries we import from. Mostly Canada and OPEC. You are correct that Exxon makes more money when prices go up, I wasn't trying to deny high prices benefit them I was just saying they are not the ones setting price. As a final comment Exxon actually is more levered refining margins (profit from turning oil to gasoline) than oil prices. This is why Exxon had its best quarters after Katrina destroyed refining capacity even though oil was 70 vs. 140 at the peak
gte-
I agree around here people are much better waiting, because prices are very unlikely to go much higher, but in some areas prices are lower than they were 10 years ago. In which case the person may save 3 more years only to find they are nowhere near being able to buy.
I am not recommending that people stretch their finances, but in many parts now may be the best time ever to buy a house. So I can understand why they might want to stretch themselves.
"HB said-
I agree around here people are much better waiting, because prices are very unlikely to go much higher, but in some areas prices are lower than they were 10 years ago."
I think you meant areas outside Washington metro. Around here, prices are close to 2x/2.5x/3x compared to 10 years ago - let alone lower....
http://franklymls.com/FX7226586
this listing seems to have a wierd price history. They must have done the work between the huge increase in price?
@housebuyer,
I agree to an extent it's just that this
" . . .in many parts now may be the best time ever to buy a house. . . "
is the type of thinking that helped fuel the bubble.
Regardless of what the market says one should buy when it is the best time for them to buy, which may or may not be right now.
Owning a house has more to do with fiscal responsibility than with how much you make.
If they can only afford a house now b/c of super-low rates, tax-credits, etc. (seems to be the case of this lady) then they can't afford it period. What's worse is when they go to sell, who will they sell to? If they can only afford it due to free money, then the pool of buyers will be diminished in the future due to the lack of free money, which will ultimately lead to lower demand and lower prices.
In a really perverse way, I actually think this housing bubble might do some good. With the massive amount of homes built during the bubble an oversupply of homes will exist for quite some time. A quick look at the new home builders construction will confirm this. This oversupply will lead to much lower prices vs. what prices would have been without the bubble. Once the effects of the gov. attempts to get the price elevated fails, it will probably be very cheap housing. I think this will only benefit people like my bro. who will graduate college in 4 years (i.e. it will benefit more the younger generation vs. the older), good for him, not so good for me since I'd like to buy sooner rather than later.
Jeremy said
Thanks for the leads everyone. We're trying to stick to Oakton/Vienna now as a compromise for my commute to Tysons and my wife to Fairfax Hospital.
Assuming you mean Fairfax Hospital located between Gallows Road and 495 . . . what about Fairfax? Much closer to your wife's job and I would guess about the same to Tysons via Gallows Road as some of the places in Oakton you are looking. Some of those neighborhoods go to Woodson HS; some Fairfax HS.
Spider-
Yes that is what I meant. Around here prices will not go up in the near future, but in some areas (I meant outside the DC) prices are very very good
GTE-
Seeing that she is only 23(probably 1 year out of school) and has already saved several thousand she probably can afford the house. Do to the tax credit she has 5K in her saving (~6%, which is comparable to most of us leaving 30K after buying a house since we are looking at ~400-600K houses). I would almost promise you that buying also will significantly reduce her monthly payments.
Also buying at the best price in decades is not what caused the bubble in houses. Buying at terrible prices (high price/rent ratios) because you assume prices will sky rocket it what caused them.
A stock comparison would be buying stocks in March (the lowest the market had been in a decade was a great idea) vs. buying tech stocks in 2000 was a really really bad idea.
Sehr, if you look under the "Remarks" section just above the price history, you can see what renovations have been described by the Realtor. Sometimes you can also guess from the photos.
In this case, the Remarks read: "Fantastic Single Family in sought after City Park Homes. New Roof, HVAC, Deck, Kitchen, Windows, Bathrooms, Flooring, paint and so much more. Very nice home. Bedrooms in basement are not legal, short ceiling in basement"
Although in some cases the reno's were done before the current owner bought it, in this case, they look recent. And, I don't think there is any way they could have done those reno's on the earlier price, in that area. A call to the agent would clear it up, of course.
Ace& Sher-
No need to call the agent if you look at the sold history it was sold for 200K in July. I would guess it was a foreclosure in bad shape for the first part of the price history. A flipper fixed it up and raised the price considerably. It appears they have had some issues selling it so they would likely be willing to negotiate some.
TBW - We prefer the Oakton/Vienna area probably for some of the same reasons you do. We also want a larger lot that has some privacy, preferably backing to parkland or at least trees. We do not want to be inside town limits if we can help it. I come from a more rural part of Virginia and am looking forward to having my own space again. I would rather live in Clifton or Fairfax Station and commute than live inside the city of Fairfax.
Jeremy-
I could be wrong, but I think TBW was talking about Fairfax County not city. A couple of areas that sound like they might fit your description well is Mantua or the areas around Prosperity road.
I am not saying this house is nice or a good deal, but if you look at the satellite pictures is this secluded enough and close enough to your jobs. I would think it is better than Vienna/Oakton on both accounts.
http://franklymls.com/FX7225294
I forget whether you care about schools or not, but if so I am 9(% sure it is also in the Frost/Woodson district, which has been one of the best for decades.
9(% was supposed to be 99% sure
Thanks housebuyer. I think we are pretty set for now on our target home search area, but I can add that to the list if inventory never improves and we have to expand the search. We aren't as concerned about my wife's commute to the hospital since she leaves at 6am when traffic is more manageable. I'm a 9-6ish worker most of the time, so I get the worst of it. That is why we will stick to Oakton/Vienna/Great Falls. She grew up in Oakton and is partial to that area and Fair Lakes shopping & restaurants, so that is our first choice.
HB, yes, I saw that it had been sold then and thought that it was unlikely the renos were made prior to that time. My suggestion regarding the call was that if someone wanted to confirm that the renos were made since the seller bought the place, that would be the way to find out for certain rather than assuming it from the listing.
Va_Investor: don't be such a baby. You were the one who chose to pay extra to send your kids to private school.
Ace-
I agree there really is no reason not to call, but the fact that the tags are still on the appliances make it sounds like this is a flip to me. Either way the important question is what is this place worth not did the flipper get an amazing price or not.
HB, I think we have been agreeing all along.
Let's see--
bake sales to provide kevlar for the troops...
parents and others shoveling city sidewalks and bus stops for the neighborhood kids...
To anyone who asked for smaller government, lower taxes AND endless war-for-profit, I'd like to say---
YOU GOT IT! Now get out there and get to work!
(after your day job, of course...)
I wasn't going to say it, but it is kind of depressing how few people seem willing to lift a finger to help their community.
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