Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
Friday, January 8, 2010
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Northern Virginia Real Estate Statistics
REAL ESTATE SEARCH
County Assessment Websites
Buy/Sell Without an Agent
Local Real Estate Agents
Housing Economics Blogs
Local Interest
Housing Bubble Links
Eastern Regional Blogs
Western Regional Blogs
- Bakersfield Bubble
- Bay Area Real Estate Blog
- BubbleInfo (N. San Diego)
- Burbed (San Francisco)
- Dr. Housing Bubble (SoCal)
- Patrick.net (San Francisco)
- Portland Housing Blog
- Professor Piggington's Econo-Almanac
- Rancid Truth (Orange County)
- Sacramento Land(ing)
- Seattle Bubble
- SoCal Real Estate Bubble Blog
- Socket Site (San Francisco)
Real Estate Blogs
REAL ESTATE AUCTIONS
72 comments:
Anyone have trouble driving through the climate change today? I can't wait for the climate change from the early year climate change to the later year climate change.
I made it to work, but the climate change between the parking lot and my office was a shocker.
>;)
Southern Fairfax got just a dusting, really.
Yeah it sucks although I am renting a condo I have to park on the top floor. So my shoes were thoroughly soaked by the time I cleaned my car off
Cara we got 1-2 inches.
housebuyer,
It's concievable we got more than 1 inch, but I doubt it. (Kingstowne). Snow always seems to be worse out in Reston or up in MD.
FranklyMLS.com now links to Redfin. Is this something you all would like me to keep?
Links to Redfin Blogpost
(Cara, I owe you an email, haven't forgotten!)
Frank,
It could be how I've got things set up, but no matter which RF link I click on it brings me back to the same map area which doesn't include the property in question. I signed out of redfin... still same map segment....
I usually went from Redfin to Frankly, because I don't see any real added info on Redfin, just a different mapping perspective for finding properties. I also just liked having multiple search engines to make sure I wasn't missing anything.
I get the same result as Cara, just a map of the general area rather than the specific property.
I think it would be good if it opened in another tab, rather than taking you away from Frankly when you click, too. I often pop over to other sites to see what they have, but use Frankly as my base.
Is there any reason not to see/bid on a organic sale property that is scheduled for a trustee's sale? Also, the current listing price is $100K more than the original loan amount listed on the notice. Does that imply there's 2nd/3rd trusts worth up to $100K?
MM,
Well, if they can't pay off their lender's with the sale, then they can't sell it because there would still be those liens on the title.
However, that it's for sale gives you a great opportunity to go look at it, and consider buying it at the trustee's sale yourself. If you could line up financing for such an endeavor.
Cara-
I also only go to the map zone. I am also usually the same way that I use redfin to zoom in on an area, but like the frankly format so once I find a property I go to frankly. Although sometimes redfin has a better pricing history, that is the only reason I might move from frankly to redfin.
MM-
It is possible that could have also been a NegAm loan and only have on lien that is more than the house originally sold for, but most likely there are other liens. You need to be careful about additional liens at trustee sales dont you?
housebuyer,
Good point. I don't know. The other liens would be on the property.... Hmmm wish we had a title attorney on the blog.
MM, can you ask your new agent to run a title search for you now? You'd have to pay for it but it might be worth it if you're seriously interested.
MM-
Based on 5 minutes of research it looks like additional senior loans are wiped out out at a trustee sale, but junior/subordinate liens are removed. So I think you need to call up the trustee and they should be able to tell you all liens on the house. You should probably also do what Ace said pay for a title search
MAN some of you red state idiots--I'd LOVE to play games of chance against you. I could quit my job!
IT IS WINTER. NO ONE said winter would SUDDENLY BE BALMY, IDIOTS.
I'm considering buying a house, but would prefer to wait until interest rates fall to around 3%. However, I'm worried that if I wait too long, rising house prices will cancel the benefits of lower rates. Any thoughts?
Scott,
I think people are making a joke. At least I always choose to take it that way. Yes, the people who make the jokes tend to be more likely to be people who don't fully believe in global climate change, but if you knew all the real numbers, and the basic fact that climate's likely response time to increases in carbon levels is at least 100 years, such that we could easily already have gone past a tipping point, and wouldn't know it, you'd feel the need to joke too.
Scott-
I think everyone here was joking. Second a lot of very intelligent scientist think climate change is over played/ not existent. I had at least 2 professors at Dartmouth that thought this. Third you can't even feel the impacts of the warmer temperature even if they do have a huge impact on ecosystems. In the last 150 years the temperature increase 1 degree, so if you are expecting to feel that good luck. Yes it can impact the ice caps and cause flooding so I am not saying it isn't bad, but rather you just can't feel the difference. Finally have you even considered the idea that the change in temperature could be related to changes in the suns output. Mars temperature has increased in the same fashion as the Earths over the past 150 years. Was our C02 responsible for this also?
So sure I think we should stop polluting so much and should learn how to remove C02 from the atmosphere, but I don't think you should be 100% certain that we are the ones causing climate change.
Buy now and then refinance when rates go to 3%.
house connosieur,
Why do you think interest rates will fall to 3%?
Why do you think house prices are going to increase?
Both of these seem pretty implausible to me. Where are you going with this?
SunTrust bank executive. Transferred to Atlanta.
Almost certainly had every dime of his selling costs, moving costs, and buying costs in Atlanta paid for by the bank.
house connoisseur-
I think there is very little change mortgage rates will fall to 3%. Mortgage rates tend to be 1.5% higher than the 10 year treasury. So this owuld imply the treasury would be at 1.5%, which would be by far the lowest rate in the history of our country.
And, probably got a big bonus each year straight through the near-depression.
And, probably got a better value when buying in Atlanta.
These things should help keep him from complaining too loudly to Robert or anyone else about the selling price.
When were mortgage rates or interest rates ever at 3%?
Maybe we're talking about a LIBOR or some other variable rate? I had 3.75 at one point.
D.C. Bull fodder:
Rents Signal Rise of D.C., Fall of N.Y.
The office market in Washington, D.C., is poised to topple New York as the nation's most expensive, reflecting the declining fortunes of the nation's financial center and the government expansion under way in the U.S. capital.
Rents declined in almost all of the 79 American cities tracked by Reis Inc., a New York based-research firm, in the fourth quarter of 2009. The largest fall was in New York, where average effective rents -- or the net amount tenants pay after landlord concessions -- fell nearly 20% to $44.69 per square foot annually. It was the sharpest decline in rents ever recorded by Reis since it began compiling data in 1981.
Scott said...Almost certainly had every dime of his selling costs, moving costs, and buying costs in Atlanta paid for by the bank.
her
housebuyer,
How long have you been out of college? How close to the climate science were those professors?
The climate will change, what's not understood is how. A ton of research has been accumulating over the last 5 to 10 years in terms of our understanding of carbon sinks, the carbon cycle, the long-term geological record. Sea-levels rising is a real socio-economic disaster in the making, so unless we can somehow learn to make the carbon sinks more effective at storing CO2 for longer we're in for a real pickle.
When I left college the science was at the level of knowing CO2 was increasing, and trying to model the effect fairly primatively. The science is not where it needs to get to now, but the progress is pretty remarkable.
TN -
Graph of same.
the temperature increase 1 degree, so if you are expecting to feel that good luck.
EXACTLY. So why do people take a cold winter week as proof that they should just go on buying pickup trucks and driving them alone an hour to a desk job?
It would be a mildly amusing joke if millions of people weren't being duped by false logic on a certain TV channel and in certain newspapers.
You'd think people would WANT to stop sending ALL their money to countries that hate us--but apparently a large swath of the countries won't give a crap at least until they run out of money and/or the dollar crashes, so it would be nice if people didn't keep perpetuating false modus-tollens anecdotal logic to relieve themselves of the burden of actually having to THINK about whether something might be happening, and what they can do about it for the good of themselves AND everyone else.
Maybe when gas is $7 they will get it. $10? $20? What will the last available gallon of gas cost? And which country will have access to it?
We're too FAT, SPOILED and STUPID in this country, and it's going to bite us.
And we expect the emerging market countries to get ahead of us in THEIR energy efficiency???
Why Detroit might not be a screaming buy like spider says.
Linky
Thanks housebuyer. I guess I could ask for my rate to be based on the 3 year treasury, which is 1.5%.
Cara-
First I should say I do believe in climate change, I just think that most people who haven't researched it enough over estimate how quickly it will happen and what the effects will be. I do not expect an event similar to the "day after tomorrow" to happen and if it did it would be centuries away. I was just giving Scott a bit of a hard time to see how much he has researched the topic or whether he just believes everything Al Gore tells him.
I graduated in 2006 and the professors were in environmental engineering, so they were fairly close to the subject although not doing leading research by any means. The main reason I am not worried is that from my minimal studies on the subject it looks solvable, so I think scientists will find the solution well before the polar ice caps melt destroying many of the worlds major cities. Sure it will be harder than solving the acid rain problem, that back in the 1980s was the impending disaster.
I smell a fun debate! :-D
I guess we have too much consensus around housing now?
house con-
The reason that mortgage rates are based on the 10 year treasury is because this is approximately how long the average person stays in their house. So banks would not be willing to base it on the 3 year treasury, because they would expect you to stay in the house longer than this. You may be able to get an adjustable rate loan that starts adjusting quickly that is 3%, but as short term rates increase from 0 this rate will also start to go up so it would not likely help you very much.
housebuyer,
Okay, what you said sounded either like you and I could be on almost the same page or you could mean something quite different.
It'll be slow, the carbon cycle is slow, the carbon cycle for the biggest sink (the lowest parts of the ocean) is even slower >1000 years. The problem inherent in that, is that the climate will also respond slowly to any of our more permanent fixes. Thus it's going to require a mix of short-term fixes that keep the temperatures cool enough to avoid the ice-cap melting catastrophy (that's self-reinforcing by the way, as far as people can tell) coupled with long term effective carbon sequestration.
It's a tough tough problem. And I'm not too happy with experimenting with the only planet on which we have to live, so I still think reduction in carbon emissions has to be at the forefront of the solution.
is there any chance the property is sold for less than original loan? if not then it probably won't worth the trouble.
MM,
Selling for less than the amount of the note happens in California. Whether it happens here or not, I don't know.
MM-
I would think it is possible, unless they think they can get a lot more than the loan is worth as a REO. The cost of moving something from a foreclose to a REO can be 10-15+ percent. So if as a REO they think they could get basically what the lien is worth they may be willing to sell it for 10+% less than this to unload it as a foreclosure.
IT IS WINTER. NO ONE said winter would SUDDENLY BE BALMY, IDIOTS.
Relax Scott. You're taking this too seriously.
Thought this was kinda funny...
Copenhagen Climate Conference finale hit with snow and cold
Robert said...Buy now and then refinance when rates go to 3%
Sounds like an interest rate prediction.
the fuglist listing of the month (for 1MM and above)!
MM, I saw that listing and thought it looked like 4 townhouses squished together! Just horrible.
Do you think the deer come with the property? <a href='http://franklymls.com/FX7207032"> deer </a>
People will joke and make comments about this cold snap or that, but there are a significant number of people out there that think that if they are experiencing anomalously cold weather, that is an indicator of global climate. It is really important to note that the continental US is only about 2% of the Earth's surface, and Europe isn't much larger. So when we have a pattern like this, all we hear about is cold, cold, cold. When in actuality, we are just about as warm as ever on record globally by every measure available.
Robert,
I don't know what he got for it. I don't think it's gotten to the point where FranklyMLS lists that.
How different is the model from yours? Presuming the couple got somewhere near list and your home is comparable it seems very possible you could sell your place above the price you paid in 2004.
housebuyer,
I agree that Robert has admitted there is some pain in the upper end. My point was more Robert claimed not to know anyone under duress and this neighbor who bought in 2007, listed in early 2009 and only recently sold sounded a little suspicious.
Cara said
I read it but didn't comment because while the headline sounded bad the text made it into another nothing burger. Sure Lockhead Martin is based in Bethesda. Fine, but the article makes plan that the 1200 jobs are dispersed throughout the country. Consolidating two departments like that usually concentrates more jobs at HQ, wouldn't you think? Let's see, who has the best access to clout in the org? Whoever's at HQ. That will have the fewest of the cuts.
All I know is that in the Northrop Grumman articles they said something like 4,000 out of the 12,000 employees were in the DC area. And that's a company that until recently was not even based in DC. Surely Lockheed Martin has 1/3rd in this area as well if not more given the HQ in Bethesda.
Maybe very few will be in the DC area. But maybe 1/3rd will be. That's 400 lost jobs.
Also, the point is that this could be a pattern. If Boeing, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, BAE Systems, Raytheon, EADS, etc all cut hundreds of people that is a big deal for this area.
I know a lot of defense contractors and all of them are not veterans. I think there are a lot of veterans in this area (concentrated outside of Northern Virginia) who would probably get the new DOD jobs because of veterans preferences laws.
Texas Native said
Rents declined in almost all of the 79 American cities tracked by Reis Inc., a New York based-research firm, in the fourth quarter of 2009. The largest fall was in New York, where average effective rents -- or the net amount tenants pay after landlord concessions -- fell nearly 20% to $44.69 per square foot annually. It was the sharpest decline in rents ever recorded by Reis since it began compiling data in 1981.
This is just evidence of the fleecing of America. I read in the Washington Post that usually 3 out of the 10 biggest DC CRE deals in a year are federal government related. Last year it was 8 out of 10.
GSA put in a floor in our commercial real estate market. THAT WASTES TAXPAYER MONEY.
If a savvy person ran GSA they would've looked the DC REITs in the eye and say "you give us a huge price discount or we are not leasing." Instead, as what unfortunately seems often to be the case, GSA was a big pushover and just paid close to asking.
Maybe there's some dumb law preventing tough negotiations. I can understand worrying about abuse of gov't power. But when the gov't *is* the market it should not be paying the higher rents that it is causing by creating office space demand.
It's the same as when the DC gov't shelled out money to people in the Navy Yard area to eminent domain their homes and had to pay the value b/c the ballpark was coming. DC was making that land more valuable and should not have to pay a higher price for land that would not be valuable but for it.
housebuyer: that's what happens when you don't hire an architect and instead design a house by checking off features.
I don't know where to start, but I think the crown molding on the ceiling *and* cabinets in the main kitchen takes the prize.
That house is the equivalent of this:
http://www.thetruthaboutcars.com/curbside-classic-outtake-the-un-tata-nano-with-20-wheels-edition/#more-341114
My wife works for LM, starting with the new year, her hours are cut, and she'll be unemployed before the year is out. It's partially our lifestyle choice--she's going to stay home with the kid(s), but it's not entirely voluntary, either. The timing is being sprung on us, even if the result ultimately isn't.
She's not alone.
tiredbubblewatcher said:
Surely Lockheed Martin has 1/3rd in this area as well if not more given the HQ in Bethesda.
Lockheed has something like 140,000 employees - while there are a decent amount of them around here, I'd be stunned if 50,000 locals work for LM. I get the feeling from that article that the cuts are coming mostly in upstate NY and/or NJ.
I also recall hearing something a few years ago about how LM was facing a huge problem because something like 60% of its employees, including many skilled workers such as engineers, would be retiring over the next 10 years - so I wouldn't worry too much about LM jobs.
By the way, contrarian, I think the "canary in the coal mine" is that the U.S. is NOT on the gold standard anymore.
Apparently, according to this passage from the Wikipedia entry for "gold standard", in certain cases history DOES NOT repeat itself:
Once the pound had collapsed speculators attempted to devalue the United States dollar. The fed responded to speculative attacks on the dollar by raising interest rates to discourage dollar liquidation. The Fed was able to defend the gold standard initially but they tightened the money supply amid uncertain economic times. Even the U.S. government, which possessed most of the world's gold ($175 million flowed into the U.S. in 1929, and $280 million in 1930)[12] moved to cushion the effects of the Great Depression by raising the official price of gold (from about $20 to $35 per ounce) and thereby substantially raising the equilibrium price level in 1933-4. Economic theories claim that a strict adherence to the gold standard during the Great Depression prevented the Federal Reserve from reducing nominal interest rates, which would have led to an expansion of the monetary supply. On the contrary, interest rates were increased to stimulate demand for the U.S. Dollar. This further lowered market demand, thereby augmenting the pressures and risks of deflation (as market demand decreases, prices decrease).
You need to ask yourself some KEY questions:
Is the Fed currently raising interest rates to defend the dollar? Have they done so in the last decade? Have the reduced, or INCREASED, money supply in recent times? When choosing between raising taxes in congress, in front of the press and republicans and everyone, versus simply printing paper and electronic money out of thin air, behind the closed doors of the Fed, in order to fund wars and stimulus packages, what has this government done this year? Which did the last 8-year government choose?
The policies of the last ten years have been as exactly OPPOSITE to 1929-1932 as the powers that be could make them. Why do you expect opposite policies to have the same historical effects, or worse? Or, do you expect the policies of the last ten years to be suddenly reversed 180 degrees?
In fact, give me even one example of a deflationary or money-tightening policy that has currently been in effect any time since 2007, or one that is OFFICIALLY set to go into effect anytime between now and, say 2012--
specific tax hikes?
interest rate hikes?
going back on the gold standard?
budget cuts?
military cuts?
truly ending the wars?
anything?
ANYTHING???
housebuyer--
I sure hope you don't think acid rain is a solved problem!?!?
Clouds with the same acidity as lemon-juice are still killing off fragile alpine species, hurting fish and waterways, etc, etc throughout the northeast.
The reason it's quieted down is because the coal lobby has been winning.
Coal is a domestic resource with domestic jobs, so lopping off all the mountains in West Virginia so we can have our TVs and our air conditioners is the order of the day, and fighting that is politically untenable. At least the appliance industry has made great gains in efficiencies, while the auto industry fights the same every step of the way.
The gas-guzzler lobby has also been winning. I wonder if that will change now that the American car industry nearly disappeared and needed all those "bailouts".
Problem with global climate change is that it's a global problem, by the time it's proven and a crisis, if we are losing 20% of crops when we'll be needing 80% MORE food by 2050 or something, then, well, enjoy the die off! And the food inflation.
Acid rain is more of a regional problem.
Scott-
It will be well after 2050 that global warming will have the sort of impact you are talking about even if you assume we do nothing. I have faith that scientists will help solve the problem before then, although I agree we should all do our own part.
As for acid rain it has been reduced by 65% over the last three decades. Seeing that the population and energy consumption has grown considerably I would consider that a pretty big success. Sure it would be nice if was completely gone, but a two thirds drop from the 1976 level is pretty good. acid rain
in another schizo listing,
this one went for 20% under list.
http://franklymls.com/DC6909770
and after sitting almost 6 months.
Pat it looks like it went for 5% over list. Frankly shows that in November list was lowered to 215K. That house needs some serious work, using it as a comp for other places may be hard unless you actually went in and detailed what needed to be fixed. It looks like someone ripped out the kitchen cabinets. I see appliances gone all the time but cabinets are pretty rare.
Cara-
Have you closed yet? Did everything go well?
housebuyer,
Yup. All went smoothly in the end. Moving tomorrow.
That's great goodluck with the move!
Matt said
I also recall hearing something a few years ago about how LM was facing a huge problem because something like 60% of its employees, including many skilled workers such as engineers, would be retiring over the next 10 years - so I wouldn't worry too much about LM jobs.
At least once a year since about 2000 I can recall reading something in the Washington Post about an impending retirement crisis for the federal government workforce. And it never seems to happen (but they keep saying it will.) I wonder if this LM projection is similar in projecting it but not occurring.
I think because this 2000s led to the earliest Baby Boomers hitting their 60s everyone started freaking out about potentially overly large retirement numbers. But I think because of the shift to 401ks and the two bear markets in the early 2000s and more recently as well as increased life expectancy and not feeling as rich from home value loss there are a lot of delayed retirements.
Cara said
Yup. All went smoothly in the end. Moving tomorrow.
Congratulations. Having moved relatively recently myself I'm reminded of how annoying it is. You just forget how much stuff you have when it's organized into closets, drawers, cabinets, bookcases, etc.
I'm crossing my fingers that my current landlord does not ask for any unreasonable rent demands and I can stick with this one until I buy a home.
Prediction: After Cara and husband pack, move into their new home, unpack, decorate, etc etc they will be ecstatic they bought a home they could see themselves living in indefinitely rather than a condo or TH they'd tire of in 5-7 years.
tbw,
Oh that's already happened. We're moving tomorrow and I still haven't arranged the living room furniture in my head, but the relief and comfort of knowing we can ride out any further downturns because the house will suit our needs for the foreseeable future is huge.
The good thing about having moved only 1.5 years ago is that the crappy movers we had last time at least told us exactly how many cubic feet of stuff we really have. We also have moved so frequently that our stuff is really culled down, although I still think we gave away about another quarter to a third of our clothing and books.
I actually really enjoy throwing things out. It's very cleansing. It's my favorite part of moving. Although shrink-wrapping the furniture into furniture blankets with mover's saran wrap is a close second.
One thing I'll be really happy to do? Chuck the original boxes for our kitchen stuff. It makes moving easier but man those boxes took up closet space.
Cara,
i'm so jealous of you!
(gotta get that out of my chest, sorry)
Congratulations, Cara, I hope the move goes smoothly, and that you will be very happy in your new place for many years to come.
My selfish request is that you please NOT leave us here at the site. We need you.
MM,
You'll find one. I was jealous of Tabitha too.
Ace,
I'll probably be around. The truth is I haven't felt like I've had much to say lately. If I'm gone for a while, usually someone else has already said it.
Truth is there isn't much to say this time of year. It is a dead time for housing, unless of course you subscribe to a feed of news articles like from patrick.net or wherever Robert gets his positive outlook ones - and feel the need to post them all for everyone else to see.
Jeremy-
For the most part I agree the last couple of months have been pretty slow. I have been a little surprised with the number of properties redfin has been sending me the last couple of days, but I assume that this is just built up inventory over the holidays
HB
that one at 71 K ST NE
had some water damage in the basement
causing mustiness upstairs.
Lots of potential but it also was going to be a workpig to clean up.
now as to inventory hitting the street
it could be that with the year end
closed out, the banks can start
dumping and they have a year to
figure out what losses to take
and what losses not to take.
TBW said...How different is the model from yours? Presuming the couple got somewhere near list and your home is comparable it seems very possible you could sell your place above the price you paid in 2004.
Better location down the street.
I agree that Robert has admitted there is some pain in the upper end. My point was more Robert claimed not to know anyone under duress and this neighbor who bought in 2007, listed in early 2009 and only recently sold sounded a little suspicious.
Yes, she was under duress. Perhaps as much as any person I know. Both because of Suntrust stock and buying near the top of the market. I never knew what the husband did, but they moved around with her job with Suntrust - 19 years.
Lockheed Martin: pat posted something in yesterday's bucket. It sounds like he has inside information.
TBW said...If a savvy person ran GSA they would've looked the DC REITs in the eye and say "you give us a huge price discount or we are not leasing." Instead, as what unfortunately seems often to be the case, GSA was a big pushover and just paid close to asking.
I don't know the industry, but I would guess the REIT's employ a lot of former GSA officials.
Scott said...if we are losing 20% of crops when we'll be needing 80% MORE food by 2050 or something, then, well, enjoy the die off!
This is the typical kind of hyperbole we get from the climate change alarmists.
TBW said...Prediction: After Cara and husband pack, move into their new home, unpack, decorate, etc etc they will be ecstatic they bought a home they could see themselves living in indefinitely rather than a condo or TH they'd tire of in 5-7 years.
I second that. Congrats Cara.
guys
i have no inside info on LM,
but, my ex used to work at IBM owego
which is now LM owego, and we used to
work at IBM Manasses in sonar
which LM bought.
so we sort of knew the divisions in those days. LM bought sperry marine
and IBM fed which was sonar so the
merger will fuck up the divisions.
now i do analysis of the defense industry, the 1200 will likely lead to 100 jobs lost at HQ.
owego will lose a lot and they
have a small town
http://bubblemeter.blogspot.com/2010/01/my-dc-housing-predictions-for-new.html
these graphs are why arlington has a lot of air in the prices
Post a Comment