Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
Monday, January 4, 2010
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
Northern Virginia Real Estate Statistics
REAL ESTATE SEARCH
County Assessment Websites
Buy/Sell Without an Agent
Local Real Estate Agents
Housing Economics Blogs
Local Interest
Housing Bubble Links
Eastern Regional Blogs
Western Regional Blogs
- Bakersfield Bubble
- Bay Area Real Estate Blog
- BubbleInfo (N. San Diego)
- Burbed (San Francisco)
- Dr. Housing Bubble (SoCal)
- Patrick.net (San Francisco)
- Portland Housing Blog
- Professor Piggington's Econo-Almanac
- Rancid Truth (Orange County)
- Sacramento Land(ing)
- Seattle Bubble
- SoCal Real Estate Bubble Blog
- Socket Site (San Francisco)
Real Estate Blogs
REAL ESTATE AUCTIONS
62 comments:
Pat -- the other day you pointed out that the day Contrarian buys, that will likely mark the peak.
This is correct. However, that sign of his capitulaiton that I was hinting about the other day was that he has recently engaged in a furious and desperate campaign to DELETE NEARLY EVERY QUOTE HE EVER MADE ON THIS BLOG!
We are not talking about an errant comment or thread. For example, it would be understandable if all he did was delete his comments regarding the Hal Turner/Stress Test debacle (refusing to admit Mr. Turner was not credible). Deletion of such an embarassing display would be one thing.
However, what he has done is erase nearly EVERYTHING he has ever stood for:
His comments about the upcoming collapse of the entire banking system *poof* gone
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2009/09/northern-virginia-bits-bucket-9252009.html
His comments about the housing market losing 90% of its value *poof* gone
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2008/12/northern-virginia-bits-bucket-121208.html#comment-5405955879689872400
Statements that Mr. Turner was credible and if he was ever wrong, he would be the first one to ever point it out *poof* gone.
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2009/04/march-new-home-sales.html
Statements wondering why the rest of us wont concede his point (about a future event that had yet to occurr) *poof* gone
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2009/07/northern-virginia-weekend-bits-bucket_24.html
Statements that the high priests of the elliot wave (the same ones who said the dow would hit 40,000 by the year 2008) are credible when they say the dow will bottom at 400 *poof* gone
Statements that it was foolish for MM to continue to hold stock (concidentally at the bottom of the market), *poof* gone.
http://novabubblefallout.blogspot.com/2009/11/northern-virginia-bits-bucket-11202009.html
Everywhere you look -- nearly everything he has ever said *poof* gone. I can only wonder what his motivation was?
My guess is that he recently had an epiphany -- one where he said "oh sh*t, the end of the world as I predicted it isnt going to happen. I better go back and delete everything I said so noone can prove that I was ever wrong".
So no, this is not the same thing as him buying (a future event which will in all likelyhood signal the top of some new bull market 10-15 years from now). However, it is a sign he has taken step 1 on that long long LONG road back to reality...
Woah, this is bizarre. Just to show the Anonymous is not making this up here's one from my emails:
contrarian has left a new comment on the post "Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 9/25/2009":
The Anonymous,
There are $700 trillion in derivatives:
It isn't the housing market devaluation, or the sub-prime mortgage market defaults that have us in real trouble. Those are nice fakes to sway attention away from the place where greed truly flourished -- trading phony instruments to the tune of $700 trillion.
There are $100 trillion in unfunded liabilities,including social security and medicare:
According to Richard W. Fisher, the president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, the unfunded liabilities of the US Social Security and Medicare system stand at $99.2 trillion today. That figure is not a misprint. If the US government plans to keep operating the Social Security system and the Medicare system, then the official federal debt really is $11.3 trillion plus $99.2 trillion, or $110.5 trillion.
That's $800 trillion so far, not including the real estate collapse and the fact every bank in the country is insolvent. For that, add a few more trillion dollars.
According to the above article I provided you with, there was $800 billion in currency last year which it is now $1.7 trillion.
Got that, The Anonymous? $1.7 trillion in currency, versus more than $800 trillion in liabilities. The liabilities versus assets ratio is more than 400:1.
You honestly think they are going to print another $798 trillion in currency? 400 times today's amount? 800 times last years amount? Really?
The deflation implosion is underway and before it is over, the U.S. will be a third world country.
By the time it is all over, property rights will be a thing of the past.
If he keeps erasing everything, and it looks to me like everything. Maybe there's an erase all comments function in blogger? They should really make one. Anyway, if he keeps erasing everything then how will he be able to come back and say anything new? Is he going to re-incarnate like @J@ did a few times before it became civil on here enough to maintain a consistent identity?
Strange isnt it? And its not like he can claim he didnt do that. Its obvious it was him as those posts now show us having phantom conversations where we quote back to him something he said minutes before.
Rule #1 on this blog for many seems to be never admit you are wrong. Thus, when it becomes clear you are wrong, do what you can to hide the evidence. Its really not that different than Mr. Mortgage who deleted his youtube videos with specific predictions.
Will he reincarnate under a new name? It makes sense in that his credibility was completely destroyed. Still, his views were so extreme, its hard to imagine that with his new posts it wont be completely obvious its him under a new name. Its very possible he will just disappear altogether -- erasing all the evidence he ever existed.
I'm a long-time lurker who has very rarely posted and, for any who might wonder, not Contrarian - though the timing may seem suspicious :)
I was wondering if any of you had used Brickbits.com to estimate utilities expenses. We have been in all-inclusive apartments for years and haven't the slightest idea of utilities costs for our family of four; I'm hoping the Brickbits estimator is at least a ballpark figure that we can use as we estimate those expenses.
And on a different note related to inventory in the Manassas area: over the last month I've noticed several new listings from private companies being sold "as-is" and as foreclosures, all by different real estate agents but all purchased in late October 2009. I'm hoping this is evidence of the bulk purchases coming on the market. Has anyone noticed similar homes in their target areas?
Would-be
I don't know, because we haven't bought yet, but that's a really cool site. Hopefully you'll get some feedback from the owners here.
I could tell you our typical apartment untilities:
Water ~15-20/month
Power ~40-150/month (about 4 bad months in the year, heatpump)
We don't have gas...
Thanks, Cara. It is nice to know how much we're saving (or paying in rent premiums) with our apartment. We are hoping some of the posters could check the brickbits estimate against their single-family-home actuals, though townhome info could work too to give an idea of how accurate the estimates are. (And congrats on your new place!)
Can any one give me the link to get the current mortgage interest rates which I want to monitor every day for few weeks?
Housing Animal Spirits to Be Banished by Prime Foreclosures
An increase in mortgage defaults among prime borrowers in 2009 is likely to accelerate this year, slowing the real estate recovery even as Americans become more optimistic about the economy, said Robert Shiller and Karl Case, the economists who created the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=am2z88Oy1kJs&pos=12
Keviz,
Go to Zillow mortgage marketplace. They'll be underestimates because it's just for those lenders who actually chose to compete on Zillow, but it's a fun way to watch them.
Anon
I'm a bear, but, I also have asense of reality on these things.
I've lived in countries that went into deflation and stagflation.
Things just get long and cold and ugly. The japanese use the phrase
"A long walk in a cold hard rain".
It doesn't get all Mad Max, but
it can lose that bright shiny lustre.
Now Do I believe Housing has room to fall from the peak? yes.
at Peak, people were borrowing 9X household income. The safe stable point is 3X Household income.
Will prices decline to that point?Nationally, I think so.
This was a bubble, have pries fallen nationally 30%? yes.
Does that leave air under the price?
yes.
Some people think 10%, some 15%, I'm
a bit more bearish.
Now that nominal price can be hard to detect because of Low Interest,
and the Buyers bribe. Hell, if Obama is going to buy into this Cash for Idiots stuff, then yes,
the prices may take longer to
converge.
People wildly underwater have no love for their houses.
HAMP and all these other programs are all about trying to con people into making additional payments while they foreclose.
either people need to get CH 11 bankruptcy or they need to go into foreclosure.
The damage is no worse.
I agree with pat. I think many bulls and bears on this blog think things will happen much faster than they will take.
It takes years for collectibles market bubbles to full deflate. Why would housing -- a much more important asset to Americans -- go any quicker?
For the 8,000th time it took us like eight years to recover from the late 80s/early 90s mini-housing bubble in this region. It took eons for Texas to recover from the oil-supplied housing bubble. Every other regional housing bubble took forever to recover from.
We had a housing bubble from 2000-06. I see no reason to expect the downswing to be quicker than the upswing.
Someone who bought from a flipper getting screwed - probably will be foreclosed. What a shame!!
Linky
If you are dying to buy, the least you can do is stay away from flips...
Spider-
I agree they will probably be screwed, but if it sells near list they are fine. So we need to see some price drops before we know they are screwed.
I am not sure I agree that you should stay away from flippers. Often times they price themselves slightly under the market so it sells quickly. They generally make most of their money from buying properties cheaper than we can. You can definitely find better deals than most flips, but that doesn't mean a flipper is way worse than most regular sellers.
tbw,
I agree with a caveat that it would have flushed out much much quicker without the fed/government intervention. Now, we face the consequences of much slower growth, higher taxes and a bottom that will sure come eventually.
TBW says
"It takes years for collectibles market bubbles to full deflate. Why would housing -- a much more important asset to Americans -- go any quicker?"
My brother and his family got into the Beanie Baby craze. They were
thinking it might even pay his kids
college tuition. I told him it was shit and to not waste his money.
He threw out most of them last year.
Now he paid cash, so his carrying cost on those was just the differential impact on his credit card debt. Nor was there much of a secondary market by the time he
got into it.
Now, his neighbor, got in deep, paid too much in 05, then took out a HELOC to add rooms, buy an SUV and live well.
His neighbor stopped making payments and was foreclosed.
Beanie Babies, Beer Cans, collectible cars don't cost much to keep.
a house that's costing you $3K/month when an apartment can be rented for 1400?
well tha'ts a bbig incentive to walk.
remember, while the 89 housing bubble basically took 8 years to recover from, it only took 2 years
for the worst of the price collapse to end.
housebuyer,
Couple of points in the response.
Yes, there is small chance they can find another ignorant buyer who will be stupid enough to pay 70k above assessment and 130k above earlier foreclosed price.
On flips, it seems you haven't seen the short-sightedness (as expected) of flippers with patches that completely hide expensive structural problems from inspections. I have seen it and trust me flips are risky.
As much as I think postponing the purchase is a better idea, for someone dying to buy - it would be smarter to consider a real homeowner.
Would-be, I was surprised at how close all the estimates were (except property tax, which was estimated at about half what it really is). My energy costs were slightly lower than estimated. Factors that may differ for you:
--no kids in the home.
--we have a programmable thermostat and replacement windows
--some work is done at home, keeping the temps. higher than most households during the day
--some of the square footage I estimated was for the basement, which has lower heating and cooling costs.
Hope this helps.
Spider-
I know that they tend to do shotty work, but that is also true of a lot of old houses that weren't bought by flippers. Often times all they are doing is putting in some new appliances and counter tops. This is hard work to mess up. They are being paid way more than this is worth, but most of the profit comes from getting deals we can't when buying the houses. I would be very happy if there were no flippers, but I am not convinced that buying a house from a flipper is a worse buy than buying one from the average seller.
housebuyer, spider
For once I agree with spider.
I don't think he means the flipper is the problem per se, but that the former owner who was foreclosed on and deferred maintanence, and the time it was empty can cause problems that might just get papered over.
Although, I have to say, I've seen some flips where they did a very thorough job of fixing those issues. Listings with, New roof, New HVAC, New Windows!!! etc. On a flip. These are the exception though.
At the same time, yes, if there are no underlying problems waiting for the future owners then generally flips are listed just under the normal market.
contrarian,
Then why are you deleting all your posts? Enlighten us.
housebuyer,
I have seen more than one property flipped with significant structural damage prior to flipper buying it. I just couldn't believe it got sold for what it did. When buyers find out, it will probably be too late.
I also don't agree you can't get the deals that most flippers can get. There might be some, but most I notice I could have had myself in the area I track.
I also completely disagree flips are priced much lower than regular sales. The minor price difference is just not worth the risks compared to buying from a family that lived in for years and maintained the property. Now, I will pay less for homes without any updates, period - but I will trust real owners much more than flippers.
TBW said...For the 8,000th time it took us like eight years to recover from the late 80s/early 90s mini-housing bubble in this region. It took eons for Texas to recover from the oil-supplied housing bubble. Every other regional housing bubble took forever to recover from.
The differences again between the bubbles?
I've pointed out to you the contraction in government spending that immediately followed the 1989 bubble.
The opposite is true now.
The difference is mammoth.
Cara, re: flippers of properties where HVAC, roof, windows, etc., were replaced: Often flippers will buy the cheapest possible replacement, since what they want to is make maximum profit, and that may be achieved if something looks shiny to the prospective buyers and they don't really appreciate what the higher end stuff costs or provides. By the time their home inspector visits, IF s/he points these things out to the buyers (e.g., that that new furnace isn't going to be as efficient as the best ones, and may not have as long an expected life and may not be as reliable), they probably are already psychologically (and perhaps contractually) committed to the house. Windows are another good example. Vinyl ones can be cheap, look ok but are really flimsy and not very energy efficient, or they can be more expensive and more efficient than excellent wood windows. Which ones will most flippers buy? So you really need to know what you're doing when you buy a flipper house, even one that looks very nice and has had a lot done.
I am not sure I agree that you should stay away from flippers.
Where is that rant key? Oh yeah...here it is....ALT-R.
(ALT-R)
I am simply amazed at what folks will pay money for in this market when it comes to sub standard workmanship.
I know what the shortcuts are, I know where most folks are tempted to take them, and I know how to spot them.
99% of the flipper's building materials come from two sources, Home Depot and Lowe's. The Wal-Marts of construction supplies. A lot of folks think there is a secret super exclusive building material supplier that all General Contractor's are members of. It t'aint so Virginia. They get their fix at Home Depot or Lowe's. The difference in quality construction can be found in the method by which those materials are applied and by the experienced hand that applies them.
The incentive is profit, not perfection. I've tagged along with a RE friend interviewing general contractors. They all interview well. But when I ask for references on past work I can inspect, they all come down with short term memory loss. Professional quality GC's are always overbooked and always in short supply and always expensive. Which is why so few flippers want to use a professional GC. Angie's list is a perfect example of folks tapping into that angst over bad workmanship.
The home across the street from our first house in Tyson's Green had a serious mold problem. The upstairs shower had been leaking water into the downstairs study for at least 6 years. When I inspected the home, the daughter assured me that they would bring in a professional mold remediation company. Good idea says I. I watched for the next 90 days. No one but one "do it all" type crew that came in, ripped out the old sheetrock and carpets, painted, mudded, and slapped perfume all over that pig. It sold in under 30 days for asking. I wasn't surprised. Before we moved I met the new family and the cute kids. They were thrilled with their new home. I asked "Any problems?" "Not a one" the proud new owner said. "They really did a great job renovating this house". It sold for ~$590K.
okey-dokey.
I've found the most effective tool in dealing with a suspected flip is a chair, a good book, and patience. Sit down in the center of each room, read, stare a bit, read some more, and stare some more, and soon enough the shortcuts will start to stand out.
I've watched folks in Whole Foods spend more time on one shopping trip agonizing over which coffee to grind and buy vs. spending an entire day or two detail inspecting a home they want to buy for a 1/2 million dollars that they will live in for 7-10 years. Never quite understood that mentality. Yes, I see you put a brand new entry door with a brass kick plate. Very nice. Yes, I see that it "sets the tone" for the new homebuyer when they first walk in. That door will still look great when the wall its attached to falls over from 50 year old rot.
May I inspect the rest of the house now? I've seen new doors before.
The last home I bought I spent 4 days inspecting it.
Me, I buy Folgers Medium Roast in the Red Gallon Bucket when its on sale at Giant. Takes about 2 seconds to decide.
ALT-R off.
FWIW.
"Cara said...
contrarian,
Then why are you deleting all your posts? Enlighten us."
Cara -- give him a few hours to ponder an even halfway legitimate answer to that -- or to somehow repost everything and then accuse you of lying.
Or he may just run away and hope we forget over time...
Cara,
FYI - Here's a $1MM rambler. Thoughts?
I think that there's no point in deleting your entries, if the point to writing on this blog is to put out your opinion, and then learn from people's responses. Especially if people don't nod their heads in agreement.
At the same time, we shouldn't completely laugh off doomsday scenarios: after all, look what happened in Fall 2008. I've also read articles stating that the American Empire can't last much longer, that few powers throughout world history have sustained themselves past 200 or 300 years. I also think that the MIT professor/radical (and, I believe, sagacious) political thinker Noam Chomsky had it right when several years ago, he said that the US is going to become more and more like a third world nation, with large groups of very poor people, and small groups of very wealthy people. (We just happen to live in a wealthy area.) I think we can see that happening as the Rust Belt de-industrializes, and as many non-industrial, professional jobs are offshored for the benefit of transnational corporations.
If you're looking for a radical opinion, Chomsky will be on the frontlines. His basic premise when looking at any situation is, "Is this democratic?" He basically pushes aside our phony political rhetoric to tell us that our supposed "free capitalist" system is actually a government welfare-for-the-corporations state. He happens to believe that we will not enter a great depression, because of heavy government intervention. Since he's interested in the extent to which democracy does or does not permeate our institutions, he wants us to keep in mind that economic risk is public (i.e., taxpayers take on risk), while profit is privatized. And it has been that way for centuries.
It's fairly straightforward to apply this view to our housing crisis: there's a lot of complaining about how underwater homeowners have not really been helped much by HAMP, and it's also really clear that banks have been able to benefit from sitting on potential short sales and foreclosures, waiting for the government to give them a new plan that will be even more beneficial to banks. I think that these complaints are partly rooted in the fact that ordinary folks (both those in trouble as well as those waiting to buy a home) are not the true target group of the government's help. Sure, we had the 8k buyers' bribe, but we know how that pumped up prices even more.
Even if Contrarian thinks that doomsday is around the corner, and Chomsky doesn't seem to think the worst will happen tomorrow, but that there will be economic sluggishness protracted over years to come, I'm guessing he'd be interested in learning more about Chomsky's views.
Being cynical that everything will collapse might not account for the equally cynical idea that the powers-that-be have too much profit at stake to let everything fall apart.
Contrarian, even if people here find your views to be contrary to theirs....keep posting, and don't get rid of anything you post.
and a $900K one...
not a rambler, but something Ace would've liked sans black kitchen counter tops?
Thanks for running the brickbits numbers Ace. Sounds like it works for ballpark estimates, excluding property taxes of course.
Interesting quote from the Bloomberg article NoVAwatcher posted earlier:
According to a Dec. 29 report by the Conference Board in New York, “home-purchase plans dropped to a 27-year low, despite federal efforts to stimulate housing demand with the tax credit and a $1.25 trillion Federal Reserve program to lower home-loan rates by purchasing mortgage bonds. The index measuring intentions of buying a home in the next six months fell to 1.9 percent from 2.1 percent in the prior month.”
The “home purchase plans” measure would be interesting to follow – does it accurately predict demand? Did it start to predict our region’s rush to buy this summer, especially once the tax credit was finalized? I checked their website but it appears to require fees to get much detailed data. That’s too bad.
MM,
Thanks!
Land Value: $810,000 Wow.
They've done as much as they can to try to make the condition of the place commensurate with the price tag. Other than being too darn white (no primer needed!!!) it's well done. But yea, I agree with the county that the house itself is worth no more than $200k ish.
That's amazing.
Thanks!
I guess my question is, why would anyone who doesn't have millions of dollars to throw around chose to live there? There are indeed people who have money to burn, and those people need to live somewhere too. But are such enclaves even relevant for the housing market as a whole, or individual purchasers in NoVa? They're more like a release valve for the uber-wealthy...
Would-be
I don't recall the numbers but last year it did predict an uptick in buyers.
MM, thanks, I really prefer modern/contemporary style--simple lines--and like natural woods, such as cherry or maple with a natural finish--no stains or paints. I also like some Victorians, which you don't see many of outside the District, and saw a nicely updated real Craftsman in Alexandria that we almost bid on.
Not too many of any of these in Arlington or nearby areas. But I still hold out hope that there will be something that can be worked with (with Texas Native's cautions in mind)--if prices come down a bit more in the areas of interest.
MM, that one house did have beautiful azaleas! :-)
Ohh good Contrarian, glad to see you are still here.
You must have missed it, but Cara, myself and others are wondering why are you deleting all your old posts?
Please be sure to let us know when you get a second -- thanks.
If he's posting one per deletion, it's not really deleting, is it?
'nuff of that.
I think Texas Native hit an important point in his rant. Patience is a virtue, and it's a particularly important virtue when making a big purchase. One of the oldest sales tricks in the book is to ensure the 'deal' looks like it's about to drive off the lot. Force an immediate decision, because an immediate decision is inherently not deliberate, and usually emotional.
"If he's posting one per deletion, it's not really deleting, is it?"
Actually its more like 10 deletions for 1 new post. Lots of glug glug glug foolishness for him to sift through from the past 3 years of posts.
I love too how his position to Cara today is "nothing I said last year has changed". Perhaps he should change that to:
"Contrarian said...
Nothing I said last year has changed...except for 90% of everything I wrote which I deleted."
Brown Says Tax Hikes on Wealthy Will Halve Deficit in 4 Years
Relevant because how we close the deficit here has a big impact on local housing prices.
Will Obama and the Dems choose tax increases or spending cuts?
The Anonymous,
Was Contrarian one of those who on this board convinced you to wait back in 01/02?
Just curious.
Ace,
Would it be possible to buy a $500K lot then build a new modern/contemporary home for under $500K?
"The Anon said
that sign of his capitulaiton that I was hinting about the other day was that he has recently engaged in a furious and desperate campaign to DELETE NEARLY EVERY QUOTE HE EVER MADE ON THIS BLOG!"
Hmmm. A long time ago, I speculated that if the crippling deflation he predicted hadnt come to pass in the years ahead, the rest of the posters here would eventually buy and move on with their lives. However, you could bet that Contrarian would still be here, angrily saying it (the deflation) just hadnt happened yet, and that we were all fools for ignoring him.
Eventually, I figured he would be the last one left (unless harriet pulled the plug before then). Now it looks like I was wrong about that.
As to whats going on now is hard to say. I really have no idea what he thought the benefit was of a full scale deletion of nearly everything he wrote. This ones a stumper.
Robert-
I think unfortunately both ways of closing the deficit are bad for this area. Either they spend less, which obviously hurts this area or they tax the "rich". Obama thinks anyone making over 200-250K is rich. There are a lot of people in this area that would get hit with these taxes. Obviously it wouldn't impact the sub 400K house category, but the 700K+ category may get hit (depending on how large the tax increase ends up being). This area has a lot of houses in the 700K+ range
You are still here Xpovos? IIRC, your target area was lower cost housing in PWC. I would assume this price range and location would be the veritable land of "milk and honey" by now.
Is it not working out the way you had hoped? I considered you (and Tabitha) as valuable sources for what was going on out in PWC and I always appreciated your posts. I do hope that everything works out for you.
Northrop will relocate HQ to Washington area
Not a lot of jobs, but I am noticing a trend...
housebuyer says...I think unfortunately both ways of closing the deficit are bad for this area. Either they spend less, which obviously hurts this area or they tax the "rich". Obama thinks anyone making over 200-250K is rich. There are a lot of people in this area that would get hit with these taxes. Obviously it wouldn't impact the sub 400K house category, but the 700K+ category may get hit (depending on how large the tax increase ends up being). This area has a lot of houses in the 700K+ range
Still, give me the tax increases. We saw what happened to housing here in the very early 1990's with budget cuts.
MM, thanks, we have already explored that option, in addition to the option of building onto the existing house, and neither is feasible from a time/hassle and cost/risk perspective.
Robert,
one of the reasons quoted for the relocation of NG is that it is very important to their top brass to be close to the government in the days of military contracts shrinking. which can be some of the 40000 HG local jobs getting cut.
Link????
Robert
Giant defense contractor Northrop Grumman said Monday that it plans to move its corporate headquarters from Los Angeles to the Washington area by 2011.
Executives at the company said they are looking for a site in Maryland, Virginia or the District and plan to identify one by spring 2010. The move of its headquarters will involve about 300 of the company's 120,000 employees around the world.
Here's one for you
This article, linked at Patrick.net, is worth reading, if for no other reason than the author's use of the coined word "noughties" to refer to the decade that just ended.
Since when did inflation make people richer?
Ace,
Good article. Thanks.
I especially like this statement:
"Any sensible analysis of why Britain suffers from "antisocial behaviour", and all manner of other health and educational malfunctions, starts with a simple observation: hundreds of thousands of the poorest citizens have spent the last decade in relentless, frantic, pitiless competition with one another – mediated by an opaque bureaucracy – to get a decent place to live.
So two things need to happen. Millions of new properties must be built and the price of existing homes – to buy or rent – has to come down."
MM -- I doubt it. Of people who convinced me not to buy in 03 (before this blog was in existence) Contrarian was almost certainly not one of them.
I was going to take the high road and say the reason I dig into him is concern that new bloggers (like the way I was in 03) will fall prey to his assinine glug, glug, glug, calls of doom without realizing he has no concept of reality whatsoever.
Thats not true however, and lying would make me no better than Contrarian. The fact of the matter is while I do worry about the impressionable new bloggers, the main reason I dig into him is because he used to berate me for not believing his calls of doom (remember I too was a charter member of his Assets Decline Daily Anonymous club because I didnt sell all my stocks at the bottom).
Also, quite frankly, its just flat fun to just to rip into someone who has such a tenuous grip on reality to begin with :)
now here's a price point
that seems to be setting in DC
for houses that need a bit of work
but aren't crazy busted.
http://franklymls.com/DC7195228
http://franklymls.com/DC7185957
http://franklymls.com/DC7178349
3 all at 250K....
I liked the K street one but it went UC in 8 days.
now it lost 130K or about 30%,
so most of the people in that area are underwater, we should expect lots more short sales of FCs as people realize, they may be paying
a mortgage for 10 years before they see the surface.
"Eventually, I figured he would be the last one left (unless harriet pulled the plug before then"
CRT -- I see this as his last hurrah. After the Hal Turner debacle, any credibility he had was ripped to shreds. This latest move of deleting everything he has ever written is likely the end of any last shred of credibility remaining.
If he is now to survive, it is likely as a sockpuppet of himself (the same poster under a new name). The so called "Contrarian" as we knew him, died as of 2010.
Robert,
An underreported story all of 2009 is that this year (2010) Congress will almost certainly pass a major tax bill. If it does not then all of the Bush tax cuts expire next year. Even those for the working class. Another words -- I'm pretty sure they pass at least something to extend those tax cuts. Which will lead to Republicans fighting over the top brackets.
Things already looked bad enough for the Democrats in 2010. Now they'll have ads about Charlie Rangel's tax bill (Rangel chairs the House Ways and Means Committee and has been caught evading taxes.) It's pretty easy to imagine the ads.
I still think Democrats keep Congress but sometimes it looks pretty bad.
I look forward to Obama releasing his FY 2011 budget proposal in February. If he cuts or freezes spending I hope you admit you were irrationally exuberant and change your tune.
"As to whats going on now is hard to say. I really have no idea what he thought the benefit was of a full scale deletion of nearly everything he wrote. This ones a stumper."
Well, it is clear he has realized that most of his predictions are not going to come to pass, that much is obvious from his desire to delete them.
I guess I could make an argument either way about whether or not he will hang around. He could be deleting them so that he will be able to continue his ranting without anyone being able to compare his new rants to old ones.
He could be doing this as a final step before disappearing.
The company broke the news in a news release Monday, saying it is considering locations in D.C., Maryland and Virginia. Northrop Grumman will complete the search by the spring of this year and open its new corporate office by the summer of 2011. It expects to base its decision on the amount of financial incentives offered by local jurisdictions.
I would be shocked if Northrop Grumman located in DC.
konstantin said
one of the reasons quoted for the relocation of NG is that it is very important to their top brass to be close to the government in the days of military contracts shrinking.
Isn't the trick to get the administration to appoint your employees to political Pentagon posts? I feel like whenever I read about someone Obama appoints to the Pentagon (or Bush or Clinton and so on) they usually have industry ties. It's a revolving door system.
I look forward to Obama releasing his FY 2011 budget proposal in February. If he cuts or freezes spending I hope you admit you were irrationally exuberant and change your tune.
Obama and the Dems have exceeded all of my expectations. I think the spending really caught you off guard. You bought into a lot of the campaign rhetoric.
And, no, I won't change my tune based on a "proposal" that we both know will come in 0 to -5% because the WH has already telegraphed it.
This is hysterical -- here Contrarian is deleting the post about why he deletes things...
"contrarian said...
Cara,
If you are wondering if my position has changed, all you have to do is go back to last week:
The Anonymous said...
TBW --
My comment was directed more towards the ghosts of yesteryear. Take for example what we see here nearly a year ago on this thread as John Fountain and Contrarian are here spewing doomish forecasts of the upcoming TSUNAMI, which will devastate inside the beltway.
https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=4787878578920468587&postID=7867304277187031189
Here no one gets whipped up into a frenzy before CRT takes control and dismantles the doomish arguments bit by bit. However, there are others where that doesnt happen and even reasonable people were thinking there was another huge (25%) correction coming to hit even the devastated areas like the low end and places like Loudoun where (in actuality) priced had bottomed.
Bottom line is it still just blows my mind to see how irrational the thinking was here just last year. Putting Contrarian aside who clearly has his own unique problems, were we really that gullible so as not to see it aint as bad as the doomsters are telling us, or was it simply wishful thinking in that this is what we wanted to see?
12/23/09 6:30 PM
Two comments below that, I said:
contrarian said...
Robert,
Practice patience - obviously, one thing of many The Anonymous is void of.
Nothing I said last year has changed.
12/23/09 11:46 PM
Now what part of that do you not understand?
When, between 12/23 and today, are you suggesting my opinion changed?
1/4/10 1:44 PM"
Post a Comment