Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
This week's economic calendar will have some housing data for discussion.
Monday, January 25, 2010
Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 1/25/2010
Posted by Harriet at 6:00 AM
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The overall DHS headquarters consolidation is the largest current construction project in the U.S. and the largest federal project since construction of the Pentagon. All phases of the construction program, estimated to be US$3 billion to US$4 billion, are scheduled for completion during 2016.
"The FHA tightening arguably has no bite and is clearly a non-event," said Ivy Zelman, chief executive of Zelman & Associates, a housing-research firm, who called the changes a "major coup" for the housing industry.
Robert-
I agree raising the downpayment 0.5% is not very harsh on the new buyers. I think it will help FHA funding issues, but will not have a big issue on housing. I am not convinced that they will not raise the minimum DP to 5% in the near future. The combination of both of these might make a handful of buyers wait an extra year, but unless there is something more drastic I just don't see this as the reason why housing prices will fall.
Pat Thanks for the tips on orange line corridor condos. I have been checking RealtyTrac but on the orange line it only has a 1 bed at 1021 Garfield. I wouldn't buy there because the building has had so many water leak problems. The condo is priced at $369,000 and I can get something in a better building for a little above that. The other 1 bed is at the Belvedere, is tenant occupied and older. It would take about $25K to bring it up to the level of a condo I could buy for less in a newer building. But I will continue to check RealtyTrac. If you are talking about the Phoenix between 10th and Washington Blvd, the 1 bed there that was priced at $419,000 just went under contract. It was a re-sale rather than a foreclosure, but I would like to get something in that building. Couldn't figure out which building has the white shades. Is it the rental building across Highland St. from the Phoenix? Any help is appreciated.
FWIW my agent told me that a lot of investors bought at 1021 Garfield and there might be foreclosures coming in that building as leases end and their tenants move out. Again, not a building I want but if someone is looking for a deal.
condo buyer,
there are more foreclosures than you listed, but certainly they do not affect orange line market much.
there are a lot of condo owners deeply underwater, these are people who bought-signed the contract in 2005-2006 period.
1021 Garfield has a foreclosure with a korean last name every now and then, it seems there was a group of friends/investors, who made a common mistake.
Phoenix is not very nice, if you check out floor plans/amenities you'll see that it is subpar. Especially floor plans. No balconies, near fire department, no pool, no useful roof, etc.
The only nicely done condo building in the area is libery center, much more attention to the detail.
Looks like an exciting week coming up. Play nice all, I won't be able to keep up.
I should keep quiet anyway, because I'm mad at our old apartment complex, for despite a walkthrough not being able to get a firm number from them on how much of our security deposit we'll get back (it was a nominal one). Grrr.
I'm just annoyed because seriously we put in many hours making that place sparkle, and they're just going to charge the same BS as if it were a pig-sty.
So I should shut up so that I don't take it out on others.
Cara,
The last home we rented I took about 568 digital photos one afternoon before move-in, all that a 2MB memory card for my digital camera could hold. Boring mundane shots of floors, walls, and ceilings. Lotsa macro shots of high traffic areas (bathroom, halls, kitchen).
We got back 100% of our deposit when I pulled the photos up on the laptop during our exit walkthrough.
Am so going to do that again if I ever rent again.
CB
got an email i can reach you at privately?
Texas Native,
It's a good plan. But it won't change having to deal with the attitude. I just miss all the good landlords I've had over the years. Pitas Construction company, who's rental townhouses were their best advertising possible for their home construction and renovation business. A handful of individual owners who knew what they were doing and were imminently pleasant to rent from. Even the Lennar-managed apartment up in Rockville was comparatively a breeze to work with. Of course they had the advantage of having bought a concrete-block 1960's constructed complex that was built like a rock. Whereas our last place... those balconies alone have to cost them 5k a piece every 5-10 years, not counting the damage they do to the structural walls....
With all the talk of condo owners that are underwater these days I would imagine that next step in their housing ladder will suffer a shortage of buyers in the coming years. One more reason the housing ladder is a stupid idea for all but the most financially irresponsible who cannot manage to save money on their own outside of a mortgage payment.
WaPo: "Stakes are high as government plans exit from mortgage markets"
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/24/AR2010012402996.html?nav=hcmodule
p.s. -- in case it isn't obvious/clear, there is more than one "Mike" on this board.
http://franklymls.com/DC7206839
what do you folks think of this?
7 blocks to a metro line, Close to columbia heights, sounds like they stripped the kitchen.
" Jan. 25 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of existing U.S. homes plunged more than anticipated in December, showing the dependence of the housing market on a government tax credit.
Purchases slumped 17 percent the month after a government tax credit was originally due to expire, the biggest decline since records began in 1968, to a 5.45 million annual rate, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median sales price increased for the first time in two years.
First-time buyers rushed to complete deals before the $8,000 government incentive was due to end, pushing sales up 28 percent in the three months to November. The subsequent extension and expansion of the credit to include closings through June signal demand will strengthen in the first half of 2010, while raising the risk the market will then slow anew should jobs remain scarce."
This at least gives us some idea how big a role the buyer bribe played in the market last year... a big one.
The real question is how the market will react to the extension/expansion of the tax credit and how it will respond to its expiration at the end of the spring.
I guess the real question is how many prospective buyers who could be nudged off the fence by an $8k credit are still out there and how move-up buyers respond to the expanded availability of a credit.
Leroy
Good data, it's part of the reason i refused to get into the rush, the Buyers bribe was causing people to pay 3X it's value, and add the massive fed intervention and the low rates i saw lots of downside remaining.
If only your political data was as sharp as this. Senator Barney Frank, you slay me.
Leroy,
Good find.
I wonder how some of the bulls will react in a few months when it becomes overwhelmingly obvious that the "recovery" was totally dependent on gov't intervention.
Can someone shed some light?
The $8,000 tax credit/bribe -- until today I had the idea that the deal was that if you were a first time buyer you got a check from the government for $8000 sometime after your purchase.
This has been blamed/credited (depending on your viewpoint) for making people rush to take advantage and buy, creating a mini-bubble.
Today I heard (and on further investigation it looks true) that the tax credit is 10% of the purchase price, up to $8000.
"$8000 buyer bribe" is mentioned on here ad nauseam. No mention that very few people would get anything LIKE $8000.
So,
a) they think first time buyers might be buying $800,000 houses? And that $8000 would make a difference to such a buyer?
b) people buying houses for $250,000 or less were stampeding to buy before it ran out at the end of November, worrying about two and half grand when they are spending a quarter of a million?
I'm just trying to understand... am I missing something?
TBW & Pat-
What worries me is that a lot of comps are going to be based off of this period, it is going to be really annoying if sellers just hold out to get November prices. This would not surprise me. So yes I think future demand will be lower, but if there are fewer voluntary sellers we may just find ourselves into a slow downward drift where houses only fall a couple of tenths of a percent a month. So us buyers will be left with the choice of waiting several more years or accept that we may go underwater.
Robert,
Given the location of the new DHS HQ I'm confused as to why you think it should help the housing that we most often discuss on here.
Given the location of St. Elizabeth's it might help out Alexandria (both the city and parts of Fairfax County). And I think the overwhelming benefit will go to SE DC and the SW portions of Prince George's County.
Now if the new DHS HQ were in Tysons Corner or Reston or Ballston or whatever I would be worried about the effect it would have on the I-66/Orange Line corridor housing.
But it seems clear to me this will mostly attract people to the I-95/495/Blue/Yellow Line Corridor in VA (or DC and MD)
Little-
Your math is off 8K is 10% of 80K so as long as their house was 80K they got the full bribe. I think most of us here think it had the biggest impact on the under 400K housing market.
Little Johnny Jewel,
10% of $800,000 is $80,000. Remember to drop just one zero when you calculate 10%.
A home need only be $80,000 for 10% to be $8,000. Hence this covers pretty much everything.
"If only your political data was as sharp as this. Senator Barney Frank, you slay me."
You make yourself look awful foolish trying to latch on to misstatement on my part, tangential to the real discussion, when you were shown to be completely wrong on the substantive portion of the discussion.
Grow up a little, this sort of sophomoric behavior is unbecoming in the extreme. Better to admit you were wrong and figuratively walk away than let your misguided pride drive you to embarrass yourself.
TBW said...
I wonder how some of the bulls will react in a few months when it becomes overwhelmingly obvious that the "recovery" was totally dependent on gov't intervention."
Probably by pointing out that sales rose 15% on a YOY basis -- or that the median price went positivie for the first time in about 2&1/2 years.
http://www.realtor.org/press_room/news_releases/2010/01/december_down
housebuyer,
I think as someone put it in some article it's no longer that the relevant comps are not for six months ago but six weeks ago.
I suspect inventory will be a little low the next 4-5 years (so long as the gov't and banks stop the "foreclosure tsunami" which I think they will likely do) because the only people selling will be those forced to -- divorce, death, foreclosures, moving cities for new job, etc. And those people will sell based on recent comps which are based on interest rates, the employment situation, and so on.
So I guess I agree with you that we will continue to see WTF listings, but I think there's always going to be a supply of death, divorce, foreclosure, and new city houses that are priced competitively.
Little Johnny Jewel,
I may be wrong, but the 10% certainly helped buyers qualify for the FHA minimum down payment, which is all that these folks needed to have in order to buy a home without putting any skin in the game. Mini bubble all over again.
btw should we speculate about a divorce tsunami instead of a foreclosure tsunami? ;)
There are/were a lot of articles arguing the lower divorce rate last year was recession related and that people put off the costs of divorce (lawyer's fees, running two houses instead of one).
HB,
I have thought about that as well. Comps may slow the process. However, price/rent & price/income will catch up eventually. This will make people regret their purchases when 8k was active.
If sanity does not return by end of 2010, I am afraid I will have to give up on NoVA market and move to NC or TX. There is just so much froth here - that you can easily end up 150-200k underwater in a year or two. That is significant amount of life savings, no matter how much you love your american dream.
TBW-
I agree 6 weeks ago comps are far more important than six months ago. The problem is I don't think that many people accurately determine the difference in values of different neighborhoods so they can get enough comps from the last 6 weeks. Most likely they say well my neighbor down the street sold for $XXX 6 months ago my house is the same as there's so it should get the same price.
HB,
Plus, I saw comps completely going out of the window in some cases during the November rush. Given that 8k credit rush has been well-understood & leveraged by RE agents - I am not sure if "8k credit comps" will be respected as much once the credit expires.
Little Johnny Jewel are you really that bad at math???
$8K is 10% of an $80,000 house not an $800,000 house. So you've made the point that's why so many houses in the $250K range sold.
Please check your figures before you post something like that.
Given the 8k & 10x leverage (assuming 10% Dp on average) - I see tax credit adding 80k or more of froth by itself.
spider,
I have not investigated if Richmond had a bubble but if it did not you might also want to consider its suburbs as well. If memory is right your father lives in Oakton? That might make it a little easier to visit family and friends on a non-holiday weekend since Richmond to Northern Virginia is 2-2.5 hours (avoiding rush hour traffic). Of course, Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill is not that much further. Also, many people like Baltimore County and Baltimore's other suburbs.
housebuyer said
Most likely they say well my neighbor down the street sold for $XXX 6 months ago my house is the same as there's so it should get the same price.
True. But if this were a home on the market for 180+ days and your realtor and you (and probably the seller's realtor) cannot convince the homeowner they are being unrealistic they were probably always going to be trouble regardless of whether there was a six month comp or six week comp.
tbw,
My family is not in Oakton. So, I don't have to be close to NoVA.
I know Rockville & Bethesda are swimming in a similar bubble. I haven't considered other parts of MD given the commute I likely have to endure for DC/Falls Church/Arlington.
When I think about metro regions with significantly better living standard - Dallas/Austin/Raleigh come to mind immediately.
tbw,
Who amongst the bulls doesn't recognize the critical roll government intervention has played?
The point is whether the government formed bottom can stand or how much it will erode when supports are lifted, combined with whether they will ever truly be lifted.
If you didn't notice mortgage rates are down under 5% again. As the WaPo article points out it's entirely unclear what rate private investors will require in order to convince them to buy MBS. But given that the Fed is already ramping down on purchases, I don't see how a decrease in the rate indicates that we're due for a half a point or higher increase really soon. Obviously those who are buying now are biased towards those who think the transition will be smooth or non-existant, but still, if enough investors think that, then it becomes self-fulfilling.
The divorce tsunami could be coming, especially from underwater owners.... Who knows?
Currently demand is exceeding inventory. Will that continue throughout the spring? NoVa inventories are less than half the size they were last spring. Therefore we need less than half as many buyers as we had last spring to absorb them. It also means that any tsunami would have to double the inventory for supply/demand to be even similar to last spring (most of which would have been prior to the $8k effectiveness, since buyers have to get their act together).
That's quite an uphill battle that needs to be surmounted before prices can really fall very hard. They can still edge downwards, even when demand exceeds supply, due to financing ability, but it will be hard for them to crash unless the balance is tipped. That's a huge hunk of excess inventory that the government intervention succeeded in removing from the marketplace. That matters.
Oops that must be kevin with the father in Oakton.
Leroy
in 2005 the Fannie Mae bill
cleared the house, it died in the senate, like everything dies in the senate.
Now who was running the senate in 2005? Some guy named Bill Frist.
Right, that's right.
So, if you have a problem with the legislative history, why not ask the GOP leadership why they didn't move that bill.
They had been moving bills to deregulate the banks, why weren't they moving a bill to regulate fannie mae?
I don't know.
I think Fannie had some troubles,
but their troubles were made much worse in 07, their internal screwups had actually managed to insulate them from the worst of the bubble.
Bush ordered them into the firing lines in 07 and 08.
i'd have been fine if Fannie had seen a 20% writedown of their paper in 08.
Cheney ordered Paulsen to guarantee the Fannie paper.
A criminal raid on the treasury i'd never seen the likes of.
"Cara said - That's a huge hunk of excess inventory that the government intervention succeeded in removing from the marketplace. "
You are right. But, let's not forget large chunk of it is also demand pull-forward. There is no free lunch.
Cara,
I'm not predicting a crash but continued movement down in price over the next few years, particularly in the $400-800k segment of the market. I think most of the "recovery" was in the sub-$400k market and a lot of it was not fueled by organic demand but all cash investors and the fact that foreclosures are not as large a percentage of sales (thereby moving up the median price.)
"NoVa inventories are less than half the size they were last spring. Therefore we need less than half as many buyers as we had last spring to absorb them."
This isn't really a valid line of reasoning.
Most demand will be satisfied by homes that are not yet on the market.
Now I am not saying that inventory won't remain tight. Just that this year's buyers are not limited to the current inventory so you can't say that half as much inventory today means half as many buyers this spring. (or taking things to an extreme that zero inventory today would mean zero buyers this spring.)
Oops I feel like a dummy. Thanks everyone.
Grumman, I am so sorry I offended you so much. Please accept my apologies. It was a terrible waste of your valuable time.
Last week we found a great pre-approved short sale. We submitted a slightly lower bid that the seller accepted and now wait what the negotiator said would be two weeks for the bank's response. Everything checked out for the house: the school was decent, the lot is great, the price will be similar to neighborhood sales in 2002, and only a few neighbors purchased in 2005-2007 which should lower the risk of an inordinate number of nearby foreclosures in the future.
Every inch of carpet requires replacement, however. We'll probably go with cheap but stain resistant carpet with a nice pad. Anyone care to estimate how much a 3000 sq ft, 3-level house would cost? Four bedrooms upstairs, family and living rooms on the main level, and rec room downstairs. Lowe's and Home Depot have "entire house" installation specials for under $100, but no info on-line about actual carpet pricing.
Let me reiterate...
Fannie and Freddie were on bad financial footing before the bubble burst, their basic operating principals were unsound.
Efforts were made to reform them.
One of the principal opponents to reform was Barney Frank.
You seem intent on turning this into some kind of childish Red versus Blue, he-said she-said blame game.
I am non-partisan and have no problem saying the Republicans screwed up in many ways over the years.
I don't approach politics like a football game. It isn't "my" team versus the "other" team.
There were a lot of bad decisions made by individuals affiliated with both parties, but Barney Frank is unquestionably one of the very worst of the bunch.
spider,
So, have you looked up the Census department numbers yet? That 14,000 $150k+ household renters in 2007 compared to a decade earlier is real. You have to account for the pent-up demand. If you don't you're going to fool yourself into thinking things are going to play out differently than they will.
Also the number of buyers who could have been "pulled forward" is some fraction of the total transactions that occurred. Given that the number of transactions in the whole year was still on the low side for NoVa, it's entirely unclear that there were enough sales to satisfy the organically occurring first time buyers. Whereas, the sitting inventory itself, gives a current image of how many owners want to sell.
So you see, actually the relevant numbers for the two categories are different. For buyers it's transactions to keep up with life-events that move one to want to buy, for seller's the urge to sell is visible directly in inventory. If seller's get limited to life events only, then increased population alone will keep demand above supply.
So, actually, you can have it both ways. :) It's also a matter of which was is the limiting factor at any given time. There are no signs that so far that the market is buyer limited, therefor the constraint on the supply side is what matters. And owners for the most part? Just don't want to sell at today's prices. Hence why one needs to defer to the foreclosure tsunami to induce sales.
28% up over the previous 3 months, but down only X%? Sounds like, yes the $8k was effective, but that there were still a lot of people who wanted to buy but either delayed until after the $8k expired or couldn't find anything quickly enough, and were pleasantly "surprised" with the extension.
Leroy,
Indeed, it is about through-put. But given that we use months of inventory to determine whether we're in a seller or buyers market, it's still valid.
But yes, you can have half the inventory and still have the same rate of transactions and hence still the same number of buyers. But if we seriously remain with the months of inventory this low, prices will go up not down. And you would need twice the inventory or half the buyers for the MOI to be similar to last year. So, sorry for my sloppy statement. But the point's still right.
tbw,
The ~$400k and up range is the most delicate balance right now, and the one with the greatest uncertainty and risk.
The sub $400k is possible on income alone, but at some point between $300k and $500k, savings, wealth or equity is needed.
I'm pretty certain the entire market will continue to erode on a real basis. I just don't know how to predict how much erosion will happen on a nominal basis. No harm in waiting though.
Cara,
The key factor in all of this is vacant homes not yet in the market. So, called "shadow-inventory". Now, I know you believe it will continue to be drip/drip/drip...I think given the more that are being added every single day with foreclosure rate at new record - something gotta give.
Quote:
"Rosenberg pointed out there were 2 million U.S. homes vacant and for sale, 3.4 million that were vacant but off the market, and 3.5 million occupied but listed for sale.
So we have a supply, both potential and actual, of over 9 million homes and condos nationwide," he said. "That is a huge overhang."
Cara-
Comparing the number of $150K+ renters compared to a decade ago is exactly fair. You should adjust for at least population and wage growth. In 1999 all the renters making 150K could buy fairly nice houses now they can buy pretty average houses.
spider,
And what percentage of that is concentrated in California, Arizona, Nevada and Florida? How much shadow inventory does that leave for NoVa?
This is out of date now, but I haven't seen anything more recent that's this detailed:
Washington Post foreclosure listing graphic
Nationwide statistics are useless for determining the tipping point in a given market.
Cara said...The ~$400k and up range is the most delicate balance right now, and the one with the greatest uncertainty and risk.
Ok. You have my attention. Once again in more detail please. Feel free to use small words. I am taking notes and paying rapt attention. Please expound...
housebuyer,
I adjusted for population growth. I can't remember how I dealt with the income brackets.
I want spider to go redo it for himself, because he'll never believe me. Besides, I did this last spring, it deserves re-visiting with fresh eyes. Which, I think should not be my eyes.
$150k is more than my husband and I make combined (well, not after this last raise, but that's not the point), hence that was, to a large extent all that mattered. Is there significant demand out there that can easily outbid me? Yes, there is. 14 freaking thousand of them in Fairfax County alone. What type of home that now buys you is intrinsically inter-related to how many potential buyers make that much money.
Cara,
I would love to get the distribution for our region.
However, your chart was not exactly what my comment was referring to. None of these hidden inventory (3.5 million nationally) is listed yet - and won't appear anywhere in any charts. This number also does not take into account foreclosure notices that have been sent out in last few months.
Yes, this is a national number & given we barely know about this monster of shadow-inventory specifically - it can go either way.
Correction - 3.4 million...
Texas Native,
Are you serious?
Well, it's the one with the highest months of inventory. It's where any effect of option-ARMs are likely to be felt. And it's the market that can't be understood purely through incomes. Nor is it tightly tied to rental parity.
The existence and persistence of the housing ladder has vested the equity of the region in these higher priced homes. Whether buyers will continue to be able to amass enough savings or equity from sales of existing homes to finance these homes going forward is an open question.
The crash has already played out at the entry level, but the repurcussions of the loss of equity from the lowest rung of the ladder will take time to be felt. Whereas government policy may continue to be focused on new construction and 1st time buyers.
So it's the most uncertain. We just don't know if other forms of wealth will replace the move-up equity in future transactions, or if there will be enough transplants to the region through new jobs to make local equity loss irrelevant.
This market is one step removed from the fundamentals of renting versus buying. Cash-flow positive is so far beneath these prices that it doesn't form a useful floor like it has in the hardest hit areas at entry-level.
You could calculate how many potential move-up buyers have been wiped out or worse by the bubble. But you can't calculate whether other wealth with step in to replace them at a sufficient rate to match the trickle of supply of sellers who are interested in selling at prices more than X% off peak.
Once things are divorced from fundamentals, I just don't know how to predict them.
You can look at them like an appraiser might and say X location is worth Y, or W ammenities and features add Z value. But whether there are people with the wealth to pay that much, I can't say.
Spider -
Look at the first google entry here -
Foreclosures in Virginia: The Outlook for 2010 and Beyond - Nov 09 Foreclosure Prevention Taskforce Presentation
There is some discussion of shadow inventory here. I don't know much about this taskforce; I'm assuming it was created by the VA state-level government.
Spider,
This map of local delinquencies and foreclosures was linked here several months ago. It is from June 2009, but may still help.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/graphic/2009/10/28/GR2009102800084.html?sid=ST2009102800085
spider,
The past foreclosures give a good inkling of future foreclosures. In fact I'd say they are the only solid measurement we have.
How to extrapolate from it is an open question, but you can at least outline worst-case scenarios. If 2010 has twice as many foreclosures than the 2007- through Q2 2009 era, how much would that effect inventory? That kind of thing.
In the entire second quarter of 2009 FFX county had 2400 foreclosures, which is a similar number to the current daily inventory of homes for sale. The MRIS monthly totals are closer to 4000, so if in 2010, the rate of release got 3 times as bad (turning a quarter into a month) then former shadow inventory would contribute over 1/3rd of the new total monthly inventory of 6400/month.
Oh wait, shit, I'm getting my fractions wrong, because some of those REO's last year were in inventory... and we don't know how many are currently being released, but I think it's still a decent ball-park figure.
RDS, great find...
Would-be,
That's awesome. I forgot about that one.
Notice how they set the top of the non-scary gray color at the FFX County rate of 2.5%? Coincidence?
has anyone used loan broker as selling agent? the broker i intend to work with said they've got people with VA realtor license in the house so can show me properties if i want to take advantage of their selling rebates.
i know normally we don't want agents to know how much we could afford, but in this case, the roles are reversed, so is there any potential drawback/downfall to have a lender to negotiate the contract? i guess they both *could* try to maximize the sale price? but maybe the incentives for brokers are smaller?
RDS
I liked this from your find.
"“Alt-A” loans are most concentrated
in Northern VA and Hampton Roads "
now i've been beaten soundly for saying Alt-A and Option Arms are a problem. Cara in particular says it's
less then 1.4% of the market.
so either the virginia foreclosure prevention task force is full of crap or the data Cara is getting isn't good. I'd suggest Cara is getting bad data.
Now for those interested, I use google real estate for looking for foreclosures..
Cara,
It was a serious question...and you get an A+ for your response. Very nice post.
thanks....
Pat,
Did you notice that the task-force presentation was completely free of solid data?
The NY Fed data ("my data") also shows a "concentration" of Alt-A loans in Northern Virginia. You'll have to look harder for an inconsistency.
We had a stronger price bubble than the rest of Virginia, of course more people resorted to exotic loans. Doesn't mean the numbers are off. It's all about the interpretation.
leroy
barney is an idiot right now he's the idiot.
but in 2003 and 2005 he was just an idiot.
a minority party house member has no clout. Now Chris dodd had more clout
but still frist never moved the bill.
I'm a dem, but, i know where the blame lies.
Barney has failed to reign in the banks the last 2 years.
The new lease will accommodate growth and let staff living in Maryland work closer to where they live, in order to improve commutes, productivity and quality of life, according to the company.
The firm expects to have “several hundred” staff members working in Rockville later this year, seeing the location as a “long-term, important location for Booz Allen,” said Gary Lance, vice president of Booz Allen. That means some existing employees at its McLean headquarters, which it plans to keep, will transfer to the newly expanded site.
Article
Robert, a good example that many people never move from MD to VA despite working in Tysons. And apparently they complained enough for Booz Allen to consider expanding its office space in Montgomery County.
pat,
Most foreclosures get posted on MRIS. Google RE doesn't give you all the information you need anyway. What am I missing?
Thanks Texas Native,
too bad my conclusion is that of complete wishy-washy-ness. If everyone only bought one house it would be easy to predict the distribution of prices. But since some people do get raises, while simultaneously vesting equity through a 30 year mortgage, and then go out and buy bigger/better houses that match their new income plus their paid-down equity, it all becomes too difficult to predict.
Sounds like a great dissertation topic.
Pat-
Option ARM loans are very bad. A higher percentage of people with these loans will default than even subprime loans. We do not have many of these loan in Nova.
Alt-A loans are not as good as prime, but are not that bad. I am not sure why people lumped the two groups together. One loan product had structural issues so the buyers would never have been able to afford it. The other group was people whose FICOs were in the 700 range rather than mid 700s or they were self employed or something like that.
Regarding this Barney Frank debate...
Ranking members of committees have clout and power. They do not have as much power as the chairman obviously but they have staff and power. The minority party has more power in the Senate but not dramatically so.
pat -- do you honestly believe that Rep. Frank Wolf now has no power or clout as ranking member of an appropriations subcommittee? I'm pretty sure his handiwork is all over the approp bill in that subcommittee's jurisdiction.
Also note that Ron Paul, who is not even ranking member of the Financial Services Cmte, has gotten hearings (and tons of press) on his audit the Fed bill.
So Barney Frank could have done plenty earlier this decade. Even if he did not get anything passed he could have said I anticipated the problem.
However, he did not see the problem nor currently sees it (given he wants to further expand FHA loan limits to the $800s).
I will say I do not understand the obsession with him. He's one of at least 20 people to blame for the crisis with many much more to blame (like Greenspan.)
"Pat Said...
now i've been beaten soundly for saying Alt-A and Option Arms are a problem. Cara in particular says it's
less then 1.4% of the market.
so either the virginia foreclosure prevention task force is full of crap or the data Cara is getting isn't good. I'd suggest Cara is getting bad data."
Uhh -- No Pat. The New York fed data said this area had 6.5% Alt A mortgages, pretty consistent with that Foreclosure Prevention Task Force paper.
What the NY FED also said was about 25% of the Alt A universe consisted of I/O and Option Arm loans -- which would be approx 1.6% of the market (vs the 1.4% cara reported).
So we are talking a difference of 0.2% here. Thanks for helping to confirm our original understanding of the problem in the NOVA area (i.e. that there isnt one).
Leroy
Time did a 25 people to blame for the financial crisis.
http://www.time.com/time/specials/packages/article/0,28804,1877351_1877350,00.html
Barney didn't even make the list.
He's an idiot, but, way below in the blame game to people like Phil Gramm who never met a derivative his wife couldn't profit from or
Chris Cox, who didn't care for regulation when he was running House Banking or when he was at SEC.
now Barney is to blame for the next crisis coming, because he didn't take the opportunity afforded him in 2008 and especially in 2009 to crucify a bunch of bankers.
Cara,
You may have already noted this but I hear that Burke Centre is now also an Amtrak stop. So maybe that will cheer you up from the security deposit issue.
tbw,
I hadn't noted that. Thanks. Hmm, maybe next time my mom should just take the train all the way down....
I guess what that presentation does for our blog is to give an overview/outline of all the issues that have already been hashed out thoroughly hashed out here.
But, I am curious about the shadow inventory graph on p. 13: if the Lender-owned Homes to total existing homes sales ratio has recently been around 70%, that means that for every 10 homes sold (no matter what kind of sale?), there are 7 bank-owned homes that have yet to make it to the market.
Sure, it makes sense that it becomes a potential threat to price recovery if those extra "7" homes are suddenly unleashed, but if they're trickled out, it seems like the banks' hoarding tricks will keep inventory tight....
Will bankers repeat the "mistakes" of the early part of the bubble burst? I keep thinking they don't want to do that. Once bitten, twice shy. Or, perhaps I am wrong in assuming that banks' recent success in holding off properties is a product of better strategy. Maybe it is simply government intervention holding back the foreclosures.
Also, I noticed that this task force makes the point that the potential price lowering effect of shadow inventory stresses local tax bases, at which point local and state governments have a vested interest in policies favorable to keeping prices higher.
Editing error:
I guess what that presentation does for our blog is to give an overview/outline of all the issues that have already been thoroughly hashed out here.
RDS,
I think holding inventory off the market isn't a sound strategy for banks. It is rather a by-product of government policy as you mentioned.
Let's not forget there is a carrying cost to these homes & they decay fast without occupancy. I don't think banks would care much for tax revenue erosion for state/local agencies.
Spider -
I guess we'll have more "proof" as to what has caused the holding back of shadow inventory when HAMP ends.
Spider-
Remember that most of the banks do not own the mortgages. They were cut up and put into MBS/CMOs. So holding off inventory hurts somebody else, but foreclosing the houses now lowers housing prices, people start spending less and this weakens the economy. So holding inventory hurts somebody else, but releasing inventory hurts them now.
TBW
I think the obsession with Barney Frank is part of the Right wing obsession with "Smear the Queer".
Barney's gay, so, he must be the problem. It's the same reason why so many hard core right wingers were blaming the CRA on Subprime. It's easier to blame blacks and hispanics for the end of america then greedy wall street types.
Greenspan screwed the pooch in a major way, the Money interests owned the right, and the world got greedy and stupid because of Greenspans cheap money policy.
I had a biz partner smart guy, lots of experience, he took out a $300K HELOC at 4% to buy a condo and was laughing at me because i bought a house using a 30 year fixed mortgage.
I laughed back when the bank froze his HELOC and started raising the rate.
greed stupidity and ideology may have ruined the US.
To Housebuyer: You said, "Option ARM loans are very bad. A higher percentage of people with these loans will default than even subprime loans. We do not have many of these loan in Nova . . . Alt-A loans are not as good as prime, but are not that bad. I am not sure why people lumped the two groups together."
From the VA prevention task force: "'Option ARMs'—a class of 'Alt-A loans' . . . " I've seen this before, too. Some official reporting treats option-arms as a subclass of Alt-A. So, it really depends who you ask.
"RDS said...
But, I am curious about the shadow inventory graph on p. 13: if the Lender-owned Homes to total existing homes sales ratio has recently been around 70%, that means that for every 10 homes sold (no matter what kind of sale?), there are 7 bank-owned homes that have yet to make it to the market.
Sure, it makes sense that it becomes a potential threat to price recovery if those extra "7" homes are suddenly unleashed, but if they're trickled out, it seems like the banks' hoarding tricks will keep inventory tight...."
Thats my take on it too. Plus, look at page 14 -- it looks like they are doing exactly what the doomers told us the banks couldnt or wouldnt do -- getting rid of 200 more properties per month than they are taking in. Thus, as the graphic suggests, if they can continue doing this for the next 4 years, the shadow inventory will be gone.
I see this as the most likely scenario. Spider's comment about carrying cost and decay is mitigated by the banks renting homes to foreclosed upon owners who provide some cash flow and make sure the place doesnt completly go to pot -- so that really isnt a concern.
This is also why I dont see prices rising much. If they do, the banks will be tempted to dump shadow inventory at an even quicker rate...which would cause prices to fall...which would cause the banks to again tighten up on dumping shadow inventory...which would cause prices to firm again...repeat...repeat...repeat...til all shadow inventory is gone...
To The Anonymous: you said, "What the NY FED also said was about 25% of the Alt A universe consisted of I/O and Option Arm loans -- which would be approx 1.6% of the market."
Was that 25% in THIS area, or generally? I honestly don't know. Do you have a link? Thx.
"Mike said...
To The Anonymous: you said, "What the NY FED also said was about 25% of the Alt A universe consisted of I/O and Option Arm loans -- which would be approx 1.6% of the market."
Was that 25% in THIS area, or generally? I honestly don't know. Do you have a link? Thx."
Mike -- the specific link is apparently now dead. There is an updated (and enhanced) link, but unfortunately it only maps credit conditions in colors -- entirely unhelpful IMO
http://data.newyorkfed.org/creditconditions/
2 years ago, NY Fed did have actual numbers of loans instead of just color concentrations of distress. At the time, the Fed said the total number of Option Arm and Interest Only loans by area were approximately:
Arlington -- 1300
Alexandria -- 1000
Fairfax -- 8100
Loudoun -- 2200
PWC -- 4000
2 years ago, the fed said about 30% of these loans had already gone belly up. Best guess is now 45-50% of these loans are now belly up.
If we assume a full 75% of these loans eventually fail, that means there are about 200-300 loans left to implode in Arl & Alex, 2,000 or so in Ffx, 500 in Loudoun and about 1,000 in PWC. Look for these to go belly up in the months and years ahead.
Mike-
I agree some people look at it this way, but they are very different types of loans. When buying these loans (MBS) Alt-A loans are not packaged with Option arms. At this point you are generally buying option arms for ~40 cents on the dollar vs. ~65 cents on the dollar for Alt-A
So Robert often points out inventory is high in PG County so I thought it had become the foreclosure hot zone in the area. However:
DC Area Foreclosures Article
According to this article in 2009 in PWC 1 in 18 homes were foreclosed. In PG County it was 1 in 24 and in Montgomery it was 1 in 55. (Unfortunately the article does not provide similar data for the remaining jurisdictions).
So, while it is true that the foreclosure rate is going up in Mont and PG and going down in PWC, PWC is still the winner in foreclosures.
What's the general experience here with rebate RE agents. Redfin/I-Agent seems to get bad reviews, specially around attention customer gets.
Any other recommended agent who is willing to share commission?
Cara, how about your agent?
Spider-
I know several people who used Redfin and had very good experiences. As long as you are willing to find houses you want it work well. If you want an agent to find things for you they are not the way to go.
TBW
Appropriators shar the pie proportionatlly
but authorizers get a short stick
TBW
there are Republicans, Democrats and
Appropriators
Konstantin Some of the 1 beds I have seen at the Phoenix have small balconies. I don't care about a pool and rooftop deck as they just run up condo fees. I don't think any of the buildings in the orange line are well-built except places like the Berkeley and the Monroe which I can't afford. Would be happy to get a 1 bed at Liberty Center but nothing there now but 2 bedrooms. My rental condo is a block away and I like the area. Maybe some will come on later this spring. There are a lot of Asian investors at 1021 Clarendon and that may be where the tsunami foreclosure will hit in Arlington. I'm just not interested in that building. I have some time until my brother gets back from London so I am waiting to see what the market brings in some of the buildings I like.
Pat Not necessary to send me an email with links to foreclosures. Unless they get better than the few I have seen, I am not interested. I have a pretty intense job and grad school 2 nights and weekends, so I have to use my time carefully. Thanks.
Robert,
Here is the belt tightening (earlier than I expected)...
Under mounting pressure to rein in mammoth budget deficits, President Obama will propose in his State of the Union address a three-year freeze on federal spending that is not related to national security, a concession to public concern about government spending that could dramatically curtail Obama's legislative ambitions.
The freeze would take effect in October and limit the overall budget for agencies other than the military, veterans affairs, homeland security and certain international programs to $447 billion a year for the remainder of Obama's first term, senior administration officials said Monday, imposing sharp limits on his ability to begin initiatives for education, the environment and other areas of domestic policy.
Article
:) :) :)
"Ranking members of committees have clout and power. They do not have as much power as the chairman obviously but they have staff and power. The minority party has more power in the Senate but not dramatically so.
pat -- do you honestly believe that Rep. Frank Wolf now has no power or clout as ranking member of an appropriations subcommittee? I'm pretty sure his handiwork is all over the approp bill in that subcommittee's jurisdiction.
...
So Barney Frank could have done plenty earlier this decade. Even if he did not get anything passed he could have said I anticipated the problem.
However, he did not see the problem nor currently sees it (given he wants to further expand FHA loan limits to the $800s)."
This is just another case of someone who's brain is paralyzed by partisan thinking.
Rather than look at an issue objectively they always seek to find a way to twist it to favor "their" team. If someone on "their" team did something wrong then they will rush to list everything they can think of to smear the other team.
Everything becomes a zero-sum game. It isn't about actual issues nearly so much as it is about somehow "winning."
"I think the obsession with Barney Frank is part of the Right wing obsession with "Smear the Queer".
Barney's gay, so, he must be the problem. It's the same reason why so many hard core right wingers were blaming the CRA on Subprime. It's easier to blame blacks and hispanics for the end of america then greedy wall street types."
This is just sad. Honestly it is this sort of mind bending hypocrisy that is screwing up our political process right now.
The Democrats are good, the Republicans are money-grubbing, gay-hating racists...
Barney Frank is a dirtbag. He fought for years to prevent reform of Fannie and Freddie while taking tens of thousands of dollars in campaign contributions from them.
This has nothing to do with what he does in bed or who he does it with. It has everything to do with his record on the issues.
Try to imagine yourself in a world where nobody had a (D) or an (R) next to their name for a minute and try to think.
"Greenspan screwed the pooch in a major way, the Money interests owned the right, and the world got greedy and stupid because of Greenspans cheap money policy."
Again... show a little intellectual maturity. This has nothing to do with the "money interests" owning one party or the other. IT OWNS BOTH.
Look at Obama's record so far. Look at what the Democrats have done with both houses of Congress, including a 60 vote share of the Senate...
This isn't about "Democrats good, Republicans bad," this is about actually looking at the policies supported by each party, and for all practical purposes they are the same.
Bush started off the massive handouts of taxpayer money to anyone on Wall Street while asking nothing in return... Obama somehow found a way to double down.
Make pretend you just moved to the US and knew nothing about US politics. If all you had seen was the last year of Bush's term and the first year of Obama's... what would you conclude about which party is "owned" by Wall Street...
(Both...)
"greed stupidity and ideology may have ruined the US."
More than anything it is partisan thinking that is impairing our political process.
Far too large a share of our electorate will always vote for the same party no matter who they run for office.
Over and over again crooks and incompetents are re-elected and build seniority for no good reason other than because too many people are sheep and would rather re-elect a dirtbag than consider voting for the "other team."
The CS index just came out and its not much of a surprise, but we are down -0.5%. The low tier was up a little and the mid and high tiers were both down. The seasonally adjusted number was only down -0.2%, but seeing that the housing credit was playing a big role during this period I am not sure seasonal adjustments make sense.
TBW, RE: DHS HQ -
Agree that most of the jobs will go to the areas you specified. There is a spillover effect. If those people in MD and DC find work on the DHS HQ that will be that many less workers travelling to VA for BRAC, Silver Line, HOT lanes, etc. So, now we have to fill those new positions. Some will choose to locate in NOVA.
belt tightening - I'll believe it when I see it. I seem to recall Reagan calling for similar measures. Bill Clinton - the era of big government is over. GWB also said he would reign in federal spending.
Loudoun County Assessments are out.
I don't know overall, but here is what I got (note: these places are under 200K).
1. -15%
2. -6%
3. -2%
15% was on my highest priced property. 2% on the lowest.
Does anyone know if PWC is out or whether Manassas City does a separate assessment?
VA-
Do you know when the tax assessments become available on the public websites for Fairfax County?
hb,
Sometime in Feb, I believe. But the Loundoun site also said early Feb.
Thanks, I think it will be very interesting to see what the county thinks happened to values. A lot of the areas I looked at had several distressed properties go very cheap, but also a couple of WTF prices also get buyers.
Leroy
Barney is a dirtbag but Chris Cox
who was running finance was a huge scumbag.
Barney is a dirtbag but Tom Delay was a huge dirtbag.(Rapist, mobster).
While a wedge of corporate dems believe in wall street, All of the GOP has voted for wall street.
there is a shred of hope for a progresive party in the democratic party.
There are no moderate republicans, where are the lowell weickers, the Mac Mathias's or the rest?
Examples in Loudoun County: Our townhouse went up slightly, by less than 2%. The house we've got a contract on went up in value by 7%. (I don't think that bodes well for the bank accepting our lower offer.) Another neighborhood where we've spent a lot of time looking seems down quite a bit (20175 zip), one house decreasing by 12% in value. I don't quite understand the lack of uniformity, but that's what appears to have happened.
I don't think that info helps inform much without more context: our short sale contract is in a relatively new neighborhood, where houses range from ~500 to ~600. The neighborhood's foreclosures have not really gone for lower than that price range (with the exception of a relatively smaller starter home sold for just under 450k) The other 20175 neighborhood has had short sales ranging from about the 370s to the 440s and regular sales peaking at about 525k during 2009. Those houses were built no earlier than 2001. I suppose so many short sales killed the values.
REDS,
I suppose much depends on prior year declines and the level of reo activity.
The areas I cited were hard hit and the assessments hint at a stabilization. They seem to match up with current comps over the year. I wonder what time frame the various Counties use in establishing new assessments.
Many here rely on the 8K credit as the sole reason prices increased. I guess we will have to see how that shakes out after the 4/30 contracts have closed.
I was hoping for lower numbers as that would increase cash flow for me. My personal home only dropped 5% last year, which I believe was well under actual market conditions. Due to FX County raising tax rates, I actually paid more in RE taxes.
I just talked to someone at the fx assessor's office and was told Feb or March for new assessments. I can't recall last year, but when I bought the numbers changed during Feb. I believe it was mid-Feb.
"Barney is a dirtbag but Chris Cox
who was running finance was a huge scumbag.
Barney is a dirtbag but Tom Delay was a huge dirtbag.(Rapist, mobster).
While a wedge of corporate dems believe in wall street, All of the GOP has voted for wall street."
I can see that attempting to have a mature discussion of anything related to politics is pretty much out of the question with you.
Leroy,
First of all I'm a Democrat. Maybe my arguments with Robert about federal spending make me sound more conservative than I am. I do not oppose federal spending. I oppose federal spending without paying for it. If the current leadership wants to expand spending they need to discuss ways to pay for it.
I also would rather they cut or freeze spending on the military side. I'm not convinced we still need to be in Afghanistan or Iraq. I'm not a dove but almost a decade in both countries seems excessive.
Anyways, if you read carefully you would have seen I said that Frank was one of many people to blame. And my main point was just that you cannot say a ranking member is powerless.
Robert,
You are moving the goalposts. Your argument was "it's different this time." You were not arguing that Obama would be like Reagan or Clinton (btw Clinton did do a lot of cutting).
You argued Obama would be like FDR in the 1940s and massively expand spending. It's pretty clear that is not going to happen (nor was it ever.) So even if it's modest 1-2% growth in gov't spending that is a loss for you. Your projections about Northern Virginia were based on a *massive* expansion of gov't.
"Anyways, if you read carefully you would have seen I said that Frank was one of many people to blame. And my main point was just that you cannot say a ranking member is powerless."
I am not sure what you are referring to. My most recent post above was not directed towards you.
(plus I was the one arguing that a ranking member is anything but powerless in the first place...)
Leroy,
You quoted me and then wrote
This is just another case of someone who's brain is paralyzed by partisan thinking.
So I thought you were saying that about me.
So Case-Shiller shows DC down 0.5% at 179.20 (previously at 179.71). I imagine Harriet will post her chart later today.
I can think of few places as miserable a place to work as DHS (RE: new DHS HQ). I have to wonder how many people dread the fact that all of DHS will be in one place, not unlike H E L L.
DHS routinely finishes in top 5 of everyone's list as "Worst Place to Work" ala the Federal Gov't.
Honestly, from what I have seen, the way they treat their employees is an eye opener. I wouldn't work there unless I was working as a contractor with a nice fat paycheck to offset the stigma of working in that heck-hole. Even them I would not want to work in D.C. If you have to work in hell, you might as well be near the edge rather than dead center.
Granted, there are a few islands [agencies] there that seem palatable, but again, in general, one of the worst departments to work for IMHO is DHS.
"
You quoted me and then wrote
This is just another case of someone who's brain is paralyzed by partisan thinking.
So I thought you were saying that about me."
Ah, I see the confusion.
Yes, I was quoting you but I was actually agreeing with you and talking about pat at that point, sorry for the confusion.
Leroy
you would like to believe that these guys are 2 sides of one coin.
That's partly true but largely not.
The Republicans have fallen in hard with the christian conservatives and the corporate types.
The Dems are far more split, you have corporate dems, blue dogs, independents, progressives.
The lock step of the GOP opposition does show up in their party discipline. How many Republicans voted against the war? How many as a percentage of Dems voted for it?
Now Obama is falling into the corporate dem, centrist way, and if nothing else wrecking his brand.
Barney Frank will bear a lot of weight for the next fiscal crisis which is headed this way, and, fast and hard, but the last one?
Stick that on Phil Gramm. Leach,
and the others.
I find it interesting that in the stress test numbers the government significantly underestimated unemployment, but also significantly overestimated how bad housing was going to be. housing stress case
HB,
Read between the lines - may be they haven't overestimated. You assume it is over, I think it just got postponed.
Unemployment has to be the primary variable in their housing price analysis. If they underestimated unemployment, it is highly likely housing hasn't corrected yet fully.
Fed/Treasury knows housing is overvalued & their base scenarios for stress test prove that.
HB, does that chart indicate the baseline with the assumption that there would be a buyer's bribe or other stimulus? I suspect it doesn't, and that the bribe was put in, in the hope of bringing about a more favorable scenario than the baseline. If that's correct, then they didn't overestimate how bad housing would be.
Ace & Spider-
I don't think they knew exactly what they would do for housing or unemployment when they came out with their numbers. What this shows is that their unemployment programs have not been successful, while their housing programs were a success.
Spider-
I also agree that they are likely just prolonging the process, but for banks extend and pretend works as long as you can extend. Even if housing starts to go down at the rate they expected the banks now have a year of solid earning to help bolster their balance sheets. Super steep yield curves are great for banks, so allowing them to get rid of legacy assets in a slow fashion while their new earning power is high does solve many banks problems.
Also now that the pace of layoffs has slowed I would think there is less people trying to sell immediately, meaning they can prolong the house decline at a slower pace going forward than the original estimates.
HB,
Stealing from responsible savers to fill corrupt bank's balance-sheets is a great justice. I understand your point, just being sarcastic towards fed/treasury policies to solve our problems in every wrong way possible. This is exactly why I think Bernanke/Geithner should have been fired already. But, corporate-run media and their fear-mongering would not let that happen. Nothing different than the way bail-out theft was sold to uninformed American public...
This would go down in history as the biggest financial crime committed without punishment when it all ends. Worse part is 99% of victims don't even know they have been looted.
And, let me not get started on bonuses being paid out at all this firms milking money from steep yield curves financed by responsible savers!!
tiredbubblewatcher said...
"So Case-Shiller shows DC down 0.5% at 179.20 (previously at 179.71)."
I just don't understand how they get the 179.20 number. 179.71 * .995 = 178.81. Where does 179.20 come from? I know they update previous months' numbers as new data comes in, so is the previous 179.71 no longer accurate?
Forcing negative real interest rates on public should be made a crime by law-makers. I wonder if I can sue fed on this....
Funny thing is, the Chinese did the same thing in the 1990s. In the first two decades of promoting economic growth, ordinary Chinese people began to save more. But when they put their money in the bank, the government gave them a very low rate of interest. The purpose of doing so was to prop up ailing SOEs, or State-Owned Enterprises. If the government didn't do this, then the manufacturing institutions that employed such a large percentage of the workforce and provided things like healthcare and housing would not be able to operate, leaving a huge potential for instability. (This is the theme of Nicholas Lardy's China's Unfinished Economic Revolution.)
So, Spider, this low interest rate phenomena is not an uncommon "trick" to help prop up ailing structures.
RDS,
I hear you...I almost forgot we are no longer a capitalist society.
May be we need someone like Ron Paul to kill the fed and stop the corruption.
Jeremy-
The index went from 180.09 to 179.2, which is .5%. I am not sure where TBW got his numbers.
Spider-
You can also take advantage of the steep yield curve if you want. Get a decent broker short 1 year treasuries and buy 10 year treasuries. If you think it is a huge injustice that the curve is steep, why not take advantage of it.
As for forcing people to take negative real rates, you can always buy TIPS that way you can make sure that you have a real savings rate no matter how high inflation is.
I'm sorry that you feel you are being screwed, but the government thinks this is a necessary evil in order to fix the economy. I am not sure why you always want to blame the banks. You can just as easily blame all the people who got over levered and can't afford their depreciating assets. I guess maybe you want the government to be vindictive and punish everyone who made mistakes no matter what this does to the economy.
Well, I don't know that we ever were purely capitalist, and I don't know if pure anything works to our benefit. (Even pure oxygen is dangerous.)
I think that capitalism (and socialism alike) should be well regulated and well governed for fairness, so that such interventions need not happen.
Spider-
Our country has always had a decent amount of socialist philosophies in it.
HB,
I get socialist philosophy; my problem is fairness. Selective socialism is as bad as selective capitalism.
Like RDS said, we need some ground rules in this capitalist/socialist selection process. Apparently there are none....
To others...sorry to steer this completely off-track - I will stop now...
housebuyer said...
"The index went from 180.09 to 179.2, which is .5%. I am not sure where TBW got his numbers."
They must have updated last month's number then. If you look at the old chart Harriet posted for last month you can see the number was the 179.71 when it originally came out.
Spider-
I agree it would have been good to know ahead of times what the rules would be. Seeing that we will likely continue our too big to fail policy I would be perfectly happy with the government charging these banks an insurance fee that will cover the cost of the next disaster they cause. I know I sound like I am a bank cheerleader, but I just think they are systemically important, so I don't want them to fail. Other than this I am very happy with adding regulation and fees to cover the governments cost.
Jeremy-
Yeah I guess they must have changed the numbers from the previous month slightly.
TBW, RE: Federal Spending -
Dude, the burden of proof is on you. The Fed has expanded spending, massively.
Sure, there's a bunch of talk, but isn't there always?
You have words, I have actions.
As Jeremy suspected I got the 179.71 from Harriet's chart. I guess they revised the numbers.
Leroy
You don't think tom delay is a monster?
Read about the marianas, and then call it.
institutionalized slavery, rape, child abuse, and you want to defend that?
Sorry Leroy,you are backing monsters.
"Sorry Leroy,you are backing monsters."
I don't like repeating myself.
First off,
I am non-partisan. I don't have a party you can smear or attack, so save your time.
Second off,
I will not discuss politics with people who can not or will not think.
I can think of no greater waste of time than to try to "discuss" something complex with someone who can not rise above petty partisan mud-slinging.
You obviously feel compelled to respond to any perceived attack on your team by trying to attack the other team.
It really doesn't matter which team you see yourself attached to. I would be no more eager to attempt a mature discussion with a hard-core Republican partisan than I would with you.
Leroy
Have you ever read anything that went on in the Marianas?
You claim the mantle of the cool sophisticated observer.
It merely shows your ignorance.
I said I am not going to discuss politics with someone who isn't able to demonstrate a level of maturity sufficient to make it worthwhile.
I don't have a party you can bash. I don't feel obligated to defend any Democrat or Republican you want to drag into an unrelated discussion.
Those sorts of tactics are just meaningless to me.
I really think this whole concept is going over your head and I honestly feel bad for you.
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