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Wednesday, January 20, 2010
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12 comments:
tiredbubblewatcher--
Referring to your discussion on the previous thread: Times were very different then. Not only was it perfectly legal for landlords to discriminate against couples with children this was quite common in some parts of the country, including California. The difficulty finding apartments that would allow children was one reason my first husband and I bought.
Other differences? Wives' income was not counted in calculating ability to pay-- the thinking being that we would just quit when we got pregnant anyway. And we didn't acquire credit in our own name if we had accounts with our husbands. Oh, yes, and want ads were divided in the newspaper by sex.
It's always hard to think yourself back into a time with limitations which no longer exist. I remember researching the internment of Japanese-Americans in WWII, reading accounts in newspaper archives on microfilm and thinking cynically that my mother's 'tale' -- that there was no discussion of the internment-- that Japanese Americans at her high-school simply disappeared without explanation- was a bit like the Germans' claim that 'no one knew'.
It only occurred to me long afterward that her town didn't get the newspapers that were available to me then on microfilm- (nor, for that matter, did libraries have microfilm archives for her to research) and so she very likely had no access to the Hearst papers' rabble-rousing and her story was actually quite credible.
I always find it funny that the market reacts poorly when housing starts are below expectations housing starts
Personally I think the market should take this as good news. Sure GDP will be a little lower in the quarter if we build fewer houses, but it is the best way of getting rid of the glut of houses. A lot of our nations problems are based on having created too much housing. I would have thought that the best way to fix this problem is by creating fewer houses going forward, but I guess that is not what Mr. Market thinks...
CR:
"As I've noted before, this is both good news and bad news. The good news is the low level of starts means the excess housing inventory is being absorbed - a necessary step for housing (and the economy) to recover.
The bad news is economic growth will probably be sluggish - and unemployment elevated - until residential investment picks up".
Housebuyer,
Apparently the markets care more about current builder transactions and activity than they do about solving the long-term health problem of the market by eliminating oversupply.
Who wants those old pre-lived in houses anyway? Let em rot. Just kidding.
Cara,
There is alot of money being spent on renovations and new buyers often buy furniture, etc.
I drive by a short near me frequently. There were contractor trucks there for a month and yesterday I noticed a Bray and Scarf truck (new kitchen and baths?).
Looking at reo's last year and the year before, I saw many, many work trucks throughout hard-hit neighborhoods.
I don't know how the dollars compare to whatever number of new homes that would be "normal".
Va_investor,
I was just kidding.
Calculated Risk discounts the renovating as minor to the economy compared to new home construction, but with new home construction as low as it is now, perhaps renovation is becoming a strong mitigating factor. One would have to see some numbers.
Not having lived in my neighborhood before now I can't judge relative to other winters, but there were "a lot" of people throwing out old junky furniture and stuff this past weekend, and looking as if they are starting or working on renovations. I don't know if these were REOs, are regular home-owners splurging on a renovation or basment remodeling or new furniture, if these are people preparing to sell this spring, or if these are hard-pressed folks reading to hand back the keys. But there were about 5-10 houses visibly doing something when driving by maybe 50-100 homes....
My gut instinct is that 75% or more are people sprucing up to prepare to sell. But I have no proof.
Lack of historical perspective sucks...
Cara,
How many places are currently available in your subdivision?
I would think 5 or 10 would be soaked up pretty quickly.
Are you expecting a bump in pricing?
Va_investor,
There's 4 active listings with DOM between 2 weeks and 4 months. 7 short-sales under contract. 1 real sale under contract. Just over 1000 homes in the whole subdivision.
I'm just thinking that last summer's rally may bring out more sellers this spring. That and the $6500 credit.
I wonder if Obama still gives himself a "good solid B+"?
I wonder if Obama would delete all his comments rather than be proven wrong.
Boy would that make tapes of his campaign speeches short!
(Sorry, couldn't resist...)
Gas up the truck!
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