Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 5/30-5/31, 2009

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Morning Lecture from the AP

I was skimming the "Yahoo Finance" headlines today and ran across this. It's not marked "opinion piece", so my morning coffee and I were unprepared for the closing sentence.

ALL BUSINESS: Ex-Countrywide execs to aid housing

"PennyMac's leadership could help fix the economy, or stuff they [sic] own pockets. Let's hope capitalism doesn't rule".

Cash Advance

"WASHINGTON (AP) -- Thousands of first-time homebuyers will be able to get short-term loans so they can quickly make use of a new $8,000 tax credit to pay for some of the costs of buying a home purchase.

The Federal Housing Administration on Friday released details of a plan in which borrowers who use FHA loans can get advances from lenders that let them effectively receive the credit in advance, so they don't have to wait to get the money from the IRS."

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/29/2009

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First Quarter -- Record High Mortgage Delinquency

H/T Contrarian -- From the Washington Post:

"Government efforts to cut foreclosure rates have not been enough to offset the impact of the recession on struggling borrowers, the data from the Mortgage Bankers Association showed. . . . About 12.07 percent of mortgage loans were delinquent or in the foreclosure process during the quarter, according to a survey by the industry group. That is the highest level ever recorded by the survey, which has been conducted since 1972. It is up from about 8 percent during the first quarter of 2008.

. . . Delinquency rates in the Washington region have also risen. In the District, 5.07 percent of loans included in the survey were seriously delinquent or in foreclosure, compared with 2.39 percent a year ago.

Locally, the rate was lowest in Virginia where 4.41 percent of loans were in trouble, up from 2.52 percent last year. It was highest in Maryland where 6.49 percent of loans were seriously delinquent or in foreclosure, up from 3.02 percent in the first quarter of 2008."

I am not aware if the 4.41 percent of delinquent loans in the first quarter represents a new record for the entire Commonwealth of Virginia. Also, I assume the writer is speaking of the entire Commonwealth as well as the entire State of Maryland, so it's not broken down to the D.C. statistical area. I don't have access to MBA's data, but it appears to be broken down simply by state.

The article goes on to cite the 10 months of inventory number, which is twice the supply we have regionally. As of the end of April, Northern Virginia's months of supply [PDF] was 5.33, down 28% from the prior year.

May Market Update

I received this May newsletter from the Lohr team at Long and Foster. Prince William County is still in the lead with the lowest months of inventory.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/28/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/27/2009

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S&P/Case-Shiller® March Home-Price Index

The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index (graph here) for the month of March was released today.

"'Declines in residential real estate continued at a steady pace into March,' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. 'All 20 metro areas are still showing negative annual rates of change in average home prices with nine of the metro areas having record annual declines. Seventeen metro areas recorded a monthly decline in March, with Minneapolis, Detroit and New York posting record monthly declines. On a positive note, nine of MSAs are reporting a relative improvement in year-over-year returns and nine of the 20 metro areas saw an improvement in their monthly returns compared to February. Furthermore, this is the second month since October 2007 where the 10- and 20-City Composites did not post a record annual decline. Based on the March data, however, we see no evidence that that a recovery in home prices has begun.'".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/26/2009

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The S&P/Case-Shiller® March Home-Price Index will be out this morning.

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 5/23-5/25, 2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/22/2009

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Yet More on "Busted"

Megan McArdle has all the details about our recently-discussed non-housing bubble story and book:

"Andrews married a woman with a lengthy history of debt and spending problems."

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/21/2009

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New Credit Suisse Recast/Reset Chart

Via Calculated Risk.

From the OC Register: Loan reset threat looms till 2012.

"Homeowners nationwide with good credit but artificially low mortgage payments could be forced to pay more to the bank sometime within the next three years, according to Credit Suisse.

If low interest rates remain, some of these borrowers will be spared payment shock. But those with extremely low payments via deferral of interest/principal owed, will not".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/20/2009

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"Busted" -- The Irony Factor

We've been discussing here the saga of the mortgage deadbeat Edmund Andrews who writes for the New York Times. The story's still making it around the blogosphere with the advent of his new book: Busted: Life Inside the Great Mortgage Meltdown.

The Amazon "Product Description" reads thusly:

"The fiasco that sank millions of Americans, including one journalist, who thought he knew better. A veteran New York Times economics reporter, Edmund L. Andrews was intimately aware of the dangers posed by easy mortgages from fast-buck lenders. But, eager to buy a home and start a new life, he gave in to temptation and began a surreal adventure into the mortgage mayhem that nearly wrecked our economy".

The Atlantic's Megan McArdle last week wrote a sympathetic article about hard times for writers. But after reading the book, she blogs:

"Andrews spends a lot of time defending not feeling bad, because after all, the banks shouldn't have lent him money. This is true, they shouldn't, and anyone who did should be profusely apologizing to their shareholders. But when you read the book, what you discover is that while the book is ostensibly about our Great National Borrowing Binge, for Andrews, the debt is really a sideshow. He couldn't afford to get married. At all.
. . .
Andrews took on the obligation to support two adult women and, by my count, six children. Middle class people can't do that. That's something that's only ever been possible for very rich men".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/19/2009

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Another Builder Uptick

On April 27, I wrote about the first upward builder price adjustment I've seen in Fauquier County since about 2005. I receive these alerts in my e-mail.

It was a very modest uptick, but it was so unusual I thought I'd post it.

Ryan Homes (part of NVR) has raised their prices just slightly again, so now each model is . . . $8,000 more than it was in March. ($8,000 from the government is now up in smoke for the consumer, but the economy is getting its taxpayer stimulus, I suppose).

5/18 Listing: FQ7002808 for $322,990 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $319,990 0 LAKE WILLOW CT WARRENTON, FAUQUIER, VA

4/27 Listing: FQ7002808 for $319,990 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $314,990 0 LAKE WILLOW CT WARRENTON, FAUQUIER, VA


5/18 Listing: FQ7002759 for $362,990 Update Type:Price
4 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $359,990 0 LAKE WILLOW CT WARRENTON, FAUQUIER, VA

4/27 Listing: FQ7002759 for $359,990 Update Type:Price
4 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $354,990 0 LAKE WILLOW CT WARRENTON, FAUQUIER, VA


5/18 Listing: FQ7002774 for $347,990 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $344,990 0 LAKE WILLOW CT WARRENTON, FAUQUIER, VA

4/27 Listing: FQ7002774 for $344,990 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $339,990 0 LAKE WILLOW CT WARRENTON, FAUQUIER, VA


5/18 Listing: FQ7002806 for $332,990 Update Type:Price
4 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $329,990 0 LAKE WILLOW CT WARRENTON, FAUQUIER, VA

4/27 Listing: FQ7002806 for $329,990 Update Type:Price
4 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $324,990 0 LAKE WILLOW CT WARRENTON, FAUQUIER, VA


5/18 Listing: FQ7002751 for $372,990 Update Type:Price
4 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $369,990 0 LAKE WILLOW CT WARRENTON, FAUQUIER, VA

4/27 Listing: FQ7002751 for $369,990 Update Type:Price
4 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $364,990 0 LAKE WILLOW CT WARRENTON, FAUQUIER, VA

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/18/2009

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Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 5/16 - 5/17, 2009

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"Hello, Anybody in There?"

7268 Joffa Circle
Warrenton, VA 20187
List Price: $535,000
Square Feet: 8,470
Bed/Ba/Ba½: 7/6/1

Prior Sale: 01/26/2007 $889,990

I would love to hear the echo.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/15/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/14/2009

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Foreclosures Up Up and Away

MIAMI (AP) -- The number of U.S. households faced with losing their homes to foreclosure jumped 32 percent in April compared with the same month last year, with Nevada, Florida and California showing the highest rates, according to data released Wednesday
. . .
April was the second straight month with more than 300,000 households receiving a foreclosure filing, as the number of borrowers with mortgage troubles failed to abate.

The April number, however, was less than one percent above that posted in March, when more than 340,000 properties were affected. The March data was up 17 percent from February and 46 percent from a year earlier.

"We've never seen two consecutive months like this," said Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's senior vice president for marketing. "It's the volume that's surprising."
. . .
Rounding out the top 10 were Arizona, Idaho, Utah, Georgia, Illinois, Colorado and Ohio".

From the Realty Trac press release:

"The 10 states with the most properties with foreclosure filings in April accounted for more than 75 percent of the national total."

Foreclosure activity graphic of US.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/13/2009

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About that Inventory

From CBS News: "It's a Good Time to Work for Uncle Sam"

"There's little belt-tightening in evidence in Washington, D.C.: Counting benefits, the average pay per federal worker will leap from $72,800 in 2008 to $75,419 next year.
. . .
"Some of the Feds' hiring increases have been stunning. If you look at the four-year period from 2006 to 2010, the number of Homeland Security employees has grown by 22 percent, the Justice Department has increased by 15 percent, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission can claim 25 percent more employees. (These figures assume that Congress adopts Mr. Obama's 2010 budget without significant changes.)"

Still, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reports that D.C. and all 21 jurisdictions surrounding it had a higher unemployment rate in March than a year ago:

From the Washington Business Journal:

"The City of Fredericksburg had the highest unemployment rate in the area at 10 percent, followed by D.C. with a rate of 9.5 percent. Those two jurisdictions exceeded the unadjusted national rate of 9 percent unemployment in March. The remaining 20 jurisdictions were below the national rate.

Arlington County recorded the lowest unemployment rate at 4.4 percent. Other Northern Virginia unemployment rates include Fairfax County at 4.7 percent, Loudoun County at 4.8 percent and Prince William at 5.7 percent."

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/12/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/11/2009

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Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 5/9-5/10, 2009

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Northern Virginia April Housing Sales

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/8/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/7/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/6/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/5/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/4/2009

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Current Inventory

These inventory numbers were extrapolated from VirginiaMLS.com. The total "Northern Virginia Inventory" represents the combined housing inventory (that's listed on the MLS) of Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County.

Unlike the prior four years, inventory in Fairfax, Loudoun, and Prince William Counties has decreased from March-May instead of increasing.

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 5/2-5/3, 2009

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Local MLS Numbers

I realized today while searching FranklyMLS that the MLS numbers have changed as of about 45 days ago -- for example, Culpeper County now has "CU7" in the front, Prince William "PW7". Listings older than 45 days still have a 6 (such as FX6 or AR6 for Fairfax and Arlington). Searching all active listings in Arlington with a DOM of over 45 days would mean typing in "AR6* active" (without the quotes). "AR7* active" will bring up the newest listings.

Fairfax isn't affected as much -- one can search on "fx* active" (without the quotes). But Arlington would require "AR7* active" or "AR6* active". (More words have "AR" in them than "FX").

Some of you have probably encountered this already . . .

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 5/1/2009

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