Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/30/2009

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WSJ: FBI Looks Into Losses at Freddie

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/29/2009

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S&P/Case-Shiller® February Home-Price Index

The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index (graph here) for the month of February was released today.

"'While the declines in residential real estate continued into February, we witnessed some deceleration in the rate of decline in some of the markets,' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor’s. 'All 20 metro areas recorded a monthly decline in February, but 16 of the 20 metro areas saw an improvement in their monthly returns compared to January. Nine of the 20 metro areas showed improvement in their annual returns compared to their returns in January. Furthermore, this is the first month since October 2007 where the 10- and 20-City Composites did not post a record annual decline. We will certainly need a few more months of data before we can determine if home prices are finally turning around.'
. . .
Cleveland, Charlotte, New York and Washington were the only MSA’s showing larger declines in home prices in February compared to January’s report".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/28/2009

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The Case-Shiller house price index for February will be released today.

Calculated Risk has some notes from yesterday's talk by Robert Shiller at Seattle Pacific University.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/27/2009

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Builder Uptick

I thought I'd put this in a new post since the Bits Bucket has a discussion started today.

This is the first upward builder price adjustment I've seen in Fauquier County since about 2005. I receive these alerts in my e-mail. It's a very modest uptick, but it was so unusual I thought I'd post it.

Ryan Homes (part of NVR) is the only large builder still actively building in Fauquier County. Toll Brothers had a big development (Warrenton Chase) in the works but it's been stalled for a few years, and Centex bailed out of a large retirement community they were planning (retirement homes were going to start in the $800's, which was jaw-dropping).

Listing: FQ7002808 for $319,990 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $314,990 0 LAKE WILLOW CT WARRENTON, FAUQUIER, VA

Listing: FQ7002751 for $369,990 Update Type:Price
4 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$364,990 0 LAKE WILLOW CT WARRENTON, FAUQUIER, VA

Listing: FQ7002759 for $359,990 Update Type:Price
4 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $354,990 0 LAKE WILLOW CT WARRENTON, FAUQUIER, VA

Listing: FQ7002774 for $344,990 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $339,990 0 LAKE WILLOW CT WARRENTON, FAUQUIER, VA

Listing: FQ7002806 for $329,990 Update Type:Price
4 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $324,990 0 LAKE WILLOW CT WARRENTON, FAUQUIER, VA

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 4/25-4/26, 2009

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Hoocodanode?

One of CR's favorite terms is "hoocodanode?"

2005:

"This is not the dotcom situation. . . . Homes that are occupied may see an ebb and flow in the price at a certain percentage level, but you're not going to see the collapse that you see when people talk about a bubble. And so those of us, on our committe in particular, will continue to push for homeownership."

Earlier this week during an interview on the Tavis Smiley Show on PBS:

"One of the causes of the terrible crisis we had over the last two years, which has given us today's problem -- it came from people being pushed into buying houses, taking out loans they couldn't afford . . . part of that was a Conservative view that rental housing was a bad thing."

March New Home Sales

From Calculated Risk:

"Although sales were at a March record low, there are positives in this report - especially considering the upward revisions for previous months. It appears the months-of-supply has peak, and there is a reasonable chance that new home sales has bottomed for this cycle - however any recovery in sales will be modest because of the huge overhang of existing homes for sale."

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/24/2009

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The Quotable Toll

“'I don’t want to overstate it,' Toll said, Cramer hanging on his every word, 'but I told you I’d give you a call when I saw things differently. And I definitely see them as different now.'

Toll cited the increase over the past five weeks in 'expressions of interest,' which are refundable deposits that start the home-buying process, as proof that the sector was finding its footing. The number of these deposits was better than any other time over the past year".

Video at link.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/23/2009

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(H/T Contrarian): NVR Ekes Out a Profit (NVR includes Ryan Homes, NVHomes, Fox Ridge Homes, Rymarc Homes).

"A Place of Their Own" (Hanky Time)

"County Outlines Program -- Fauquier Times-Democrat:

Roy and Ferneil White of Warrenton keep close track of the area's $200,000-and-under home market.

There's a lot out there in that price range, said Ferneil, who directs the before- and after-school care program at Coleman Elementary School near Marshall. But they're really fixer uppers, and they've got some age on them.

Making them habitable would bust the couple's budget, she suggested.

But there may be hope for the Whites, who have rented a home at Bethel Academy since 1998, and others who want a place of their own.

Through the state, Fauquier will apply for federal stimulus money that allows local governments to buy and, as needed, rehabilitate foreclosed homes and sell them to low- and moderate- income families".

Here are some really old, nasty, fixers -- total "budget busters":


779 GENERAL WALLACE CT (Under Contract)
WARRENTON, VA 20186
Year built: 1994
List Price: $175,000

Comments: Nice end unit with large deck and fenced backyard. Home shows well. This is a short sale.

14325 SNAKE CASTLE RD
SUMERDUCK, VA 22742
Year built: 1987
List Price: $184,900

Comments: BRING ALL OFFERS! BANK OWNED CAPE COD ON AN ACRE AND A HALF IN A PEACEFUL SETTING CLOSE TO WARRENTON, CULPEPER, AND FREDERICKSBURG. NEW PAINT, CARPET, AND VINYL THROUGHOUT. THE EXTERIOR BOASTS A CIRCULAR DRIVEWAY, SCREENED IN BACK PORCH, FENCED REAR YARD, & SHED. BRING ALL OFFERS, THIS ONE WON'T LAST LONG!


535 HIGHLAND TOWNE LN
WARRENTON, VA 20186
Year built: 1997
List Price: $197,900

Great like-new home in nice, commuter-friendly neighborhood. Home has been renovated with new paint thru-out,new carpet,new flooring,new master bath vanity,new stove & dishwasher,new lights & interior doors,new front storm door. No work to be done, just move right in! This one is truly a gem!

387 DRIFTWOOD CT
WARRENTON, VA 20186
Year built: 2000
List Price: $199,900

BEAUTIFUL 3 LEVEL COLONIAL IN WARENTON!! GREAT EAT-IN KIT. HRWD FLOORS, FIREPLACE, MASTER SUITE W LUXURY BATH AND WALK IN CLOSET, FULL WALK-OUT LOWER LEVEL AND MAIN LEVEL REAR PORCH.** DON'T MISS IT! SEE IT TODAY!!
Subject to a Potential Short Sale
Subject to 3rd Party Approval


Oh, look! Here's one in their very own subdivision. It's already under contract, though. To be fair, perhaps it was bid up much higher (I don't know).

7144 ACADEMY RD
WARRENTON, VA 20187
Year built: 1979
List Price: $208,500

Very lovely home in quiet and beautiful Warrenton. Just a walk from Airlie conferentce center and most attractive drive.Excellent features includes 5 large well appointed rooms, harwood flooring, media basement, fireplace,contemporary kitchen, extra basement kichen and more.Seller requests that buyers complete pre-approval with Champion/Northstar Mortgage. Don't lose this one.

Questions

Sad and upsetting news this morning:

AP: "David Kellermann, the acting chief financial officer of Freddie Mac, was found dead at his home Wednesday morning in what broadcast reports said was an apparent [but unconfirmed] suicide.
. . .
Before taking that job, Kellerman served as senior vice president, corporate controller and principal accounting officer. He was with Freddie Mac for more than 16 years".

He was only 41. Prayers for his family.

An odd coincidence -- "Confessions of a TARP wife" appeared yesterday:

"Here is the reality: TARP managers are scared to death. The executives of these companies are desperately trying to hold their businesses together while complying with a slew of damaging bills flooding out of Congress. My husband has battled the shutdown of the credit markets and a deteriorating business environment for two endless years without respite. He's exhausted, terrified of losing the company, and beaten down by the constant criticism hurled at him."

Update: Another unusual circumstance:

From the Washington Post:

"Kellermann has figured in several recent controversies at Freddie Mac. He and a group of company lawyers tussled with the company's regulator in early March as the firm prepared to file its quarterly disclosure. The group insisted that Freddie Mac disclose the $30 billion cost to the company of carrying out the Obama administration's housing recovery plan, but the regulator urged the company not to do so.

Freddie Mac employees argued they had a legal obligation to disclose the information and would have to get the Securities and Exchange Commission, which oversees such disclosures, to sign off if they didn't. The regulator backed down."

From the NYT:

"In addition to taking criticism over the bonuses, he was recently involved in tense conversations with the company’s federal regulator over its routine financial disclosures, according to people close to those discussions who also spoke on condition of anonymity. Freddie Mac executives wanted to emphasize to investors that they believed the company was being run to benefit the government, rather than shareholders. The company’s regulator, the Federal Housing Finance Authority, had pushed to play down that language. Freddie Mac reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission that changes it had made in practices to help the government “have increased our expenses or caused us to forgo revenue opportunities.”

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/22/2009

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Frank's Famous!

Frankly Realty Blog

VirginiaMLS has updated its Northern Virginia inventory as of April 19.

Total Listings:

4/19/2009: 9,342
4/19/2008: 18,681
4/19/2007: 16,158
4/19/2006: 16,641
4/19/2005: 3,590

A note in my inbox from William Lohr at Long and Foster: "The Drees company raised prices on two home models in Glenkirk Estates today. $429,900 to $470,900 and $419,900 to $460,900".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/21/2009

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April Market Update

I received this April real estate letter from the William and Alexandra Lohr team of Long and Foster.

I was interested in their anecdote about the Morris Farm subdivision in Gainesville selling enough houses to raise prices twice this year. I haven't seen that since 2005. It reminded me of Calculated Risk's position in his Housing Activity Forecast yesterday:

"My view is:

New home sales are at or near a bottom.

Existing home sales will fall further".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/20/2009

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Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 4/18-4/19 2009

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News: Congratulations, Tabitha! (A delightful new residence has been secured for our blog friend and her happy family).

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/17/2009

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The Unparsed News

From the Post: "Nevada and Arizona had the highest foreclosure rates during the quarter. Foreclosure filings in the District and Maryland fell during the quarter, but they increased in Virginia".

Also, the WSJ reports that "Year over year, housing starts were 48.4% below the pace of construction in March 2008".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/16/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/15/2009

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Today's Humor Break.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/14/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/13/2009

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There They Go Again

H/T Contrarian for posting the link to today's Washington Post article on buying foreclosures, which in typical Post fashion, finds two or three anecdotal stories and tries to freak its readers out. There's always an obligatory bad guy du jour -- this time, the banks.

First, we are set up with this:

"Bargain Hunters Flock to Bid on Bank-Owned Homes, but Settlement Is Often Delayed."

"Often" -- is that twice as often as when dealing with a regular seller? Or three times as often? Or just "oftener?"

"As bargain hunters turn their attention to foreclosures, many are discovering the toughest challenge is dealing with the banks that repossessed the homes".

"Many" -- is that like one quarter? One half? If Northern Virginia sales are any indication, the banks are getting this done to some degree.

Next there's the quintessential victim story -- in this case a buyer who can't figure out why the bank's delaying closing. After four months, they got proactive and went to the courthouse -- and realized that "all the bank needed to do was submit paperwork to the court confirming that it had foreclosed on the house prior to the bankruptcy filing".

Did they have a real estate agent? Wouldn't an experienced agent know to look up the court records immediately, and not four months into it?

"But that letter didn't materialize until their congressman, Rep. John Sarbanes (D-Md.), intervened".

Did his staffers use Google to make a phone call to the right people? Or did he threaten to take away their bonuses? What did he do?

"Things go wrong, and it takes the bank a lot longer to deal with them," said Vivianne Couts, a Virginia real estate agent. "There are a lot more people involved, many more layers. The Realtor can't always call the bank and say, 'What's going on here?'"

Actually, you can. We bought a bank-owned property last autumn. When I had an issue, I discovered it was because of the bank's local real estate agent not getting her job done fast enough. I called some very-surprised ladies at Wells Fargo, and they impressed me with their efficient competence and instant e-mailing of a needed document. (Google was our friend -- it took me about five minutes to find the right person to call).

Next up, Foreclosure Buying Success Stories. (Do you think the Post would dare?)

Letting the Market Clear

Law professor Todd Zywicki of George Mason University was featured in Forbes on Friday in an article by Peter Robinson. He makes a case for letting the housing market clear:

"Assistance for the relatively small number of people who are facing really tragic circumstances makes sense," Zywicki says, "but if the administration tries to push overall housing prices back up, it will only be asking for trouble."

Zywicki says regions like ours aren't King-Learish:

"The second type of market, which appears in New York, Boston, San Francisco and Washington, D.C., demonstrates a long history of price volatility. 'The housing stock in these markets is constrained,' Zywicki says, 'either by geography--San Francisco is surrounded on three sides by water, for example--or land use controls.' When demand in such a market increases, prices soar. And when demand weakens, prices plummet.

'But the people who live in these markets expect big price swings,' Zywicki says. 'They've learned to live with them. They're holding onto their homes because they're confident prices will eventually recover. Again, there hasn't been any tragedy.'"

Just aggravation on all sides.

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 4/11-4/12 2009

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Northern Virginia March Housing Sales

March housing sales were up year-over-year in every Northern Virginia county with the exception of Arlington County, where sales were down 6% (to a record low for March with 168 sales). Months of inventory in Arlington reached an 11-year high, but inventory showed a year-over-year decline in every other area. Prince William County now leads the region with the lowest months of inventory (under 4 months' worth).

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/10/2009

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MRIS March sales should be out today.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/9/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/8/2009

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News: "Pulte Homes Inc. agreed to acquire Centex Corp. Wednesday in a stock-for-stock deal valued at $1.3 billion that will create the nation's largest homebuilding company".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/7/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/6/2009

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Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 4/4-4/5 2009

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Beating a Dead Donkey

"You do not imagine, I hope, that we pigs are doing this in a spirit of selfishness and privilege?"

"WASHINGTON (AP) -- Mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac plan to pay more than $210 million in bonuses through next year to give workers the incentive to stay in their jobs at the government-controlled companies.
. . .
The companies' federal regulator, James Lockhart of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, defended the bonuses in a March 27 letter to Grassley, noting that the collapse of the company's stock prices "destroyed years of savings for many" workers. The companies' stocks now trade below $1, down from more than $60 in fall 2007".

Is Mr. Lockhart talking about something like this?



Oops! Wrong chart.

"Lockhart denied a request Grassley made last month to release names of employees receiving at least $100,000 in bonuses, citing 'personal privacy and safety reasons'."

No bus trips for us, then.

"But many lawmakers have little sympathy for that argument amid a public outcry over roughly $165 million in bonuses paid out last month by bailed-out insurance giant American International Group".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/3/2009

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The $300 Billion Dollar House

(h/t Jeff in today's Bits Bucket):

"In the five months since it has been in effect, HOPE has helped exactly one homeowner to avoid foreclosure. This despite Congress having made $300 billion available to back these loans and estimating that the program would benefit as many as 400,000 families".

Fauquier County Wants Your Money

How fitting that the public hearing is on April 15th.

From the Fauquier Times-Democrat:

"Foreclosed homes in Fauquier could prove a boon to low- and moderate-income people.

By June 1, the county will submit a grant application to the Virginia Department of Housing and Community Development (VDHC) for up to $2 million to buy bank-owned homes and sell them to eligible candidates".

Current Inventory and the "Jim Ratio"

Here is an inventory chart that includes the "Jim Ratio", assuming that the difference between "active" and "total" is in fact "pending" according to these numbers at Virginia MLS.

The Jim Ratio is Realtor/Blogger Jim Klinge's ratio of the number of active listings, divided by the number of pending listings.

Score Guide

under 3 -- Hot market
3-4 -- Regular market
4-5 -- Market in trouble
5-7 -- Too many choices, buyers are winning
7+ -- Freefall

Caveats: This isn't a perfect measure for our current market because of the high number of REO sales; also, it is likely that many "pendings" will not make it to closing.



These inventory numbers were extrapolated from VirginiaMLS.com. The total "Northern Virginia Inventory" represent the combined housing inventory (that's listed on the MLS) of Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County.

Update: (h/t CR) Jim the Realtor gets a story in the LA Times!

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/2/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/1/2009

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