S&P/Case-Shiller® January Home-Price Index

The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index (graph here) for the month of January was released today.

"'Home prices, which peaked in mid-2006, continued their decline in 2009,' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index committee at Standard & Poor’s. 'There are very few bright spots that one can see in the data. Most of the nation appears to remain on a downward path, with all of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines, and nine of the MSA’s falling more than 20% in the last year. Indeed, the two composites are very close to that rate and have been reporting consecutive annual record declines since October 2007. The monthly data follows a similar trend, with the 10-City and 20-City Composite showing thirty consecutive months of negative returns.'"

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/31/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/30/2009

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(h/t Cara) The Washington Post had its "Housing Review 2009" feature up this past weekend.

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 3/28-3/29 2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/27/2009

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Bottom

(h/t The Anon.) "And, the caveat is, this assumes that we are not, in fact, entering another Great Depression. It assumes that the recession lingers through much of this year but that there is some recovery in 2010".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/26/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/25/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/24/2009

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Existing Home Sales

AP: "The National Association of Realtors said Monday that sales of existing homes grew 5.1 percent to an annual rate of 4.72 million last month, from 4.49 million units in January. It was the largest sales jump since July 2003. . . . Sales had been expected to fall to an annual pace of 4.45 million units, according to Thomson Reuters."

The median price is 15.5% lower than last year.

See Calculated Risk's "More on Existing Homes Sales" for more analysis.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/23/2009

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A real estate blooper. (H/T Tabitha)

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 3/21-3/22 2009

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Added to the Blogroll: Northern Virginia Real Estate Examiner by Brett Widness.

Northern VA Market Update

I appreciated receiving this March real estate letter from the William and Alexandra Lohr team of Long and Foster. It was written earlier this month, prior to the 2009 Prince William County assessment release.

It sounds like they're keeping busy!

Real Estate Live

You asked for it -- you got it.

Q & A with Haggerty & Razzi

Off With Their Heads?

Fannie and Freddie and AIG are a hot topic today -- see today's "Bits Bucket" post for comments from readers here.

@J@ provided this link: Fannie, Freddie Decry Bill to Tax Bonuses.

Yesterday House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, "We want our money back now for the taxpayers. It isn't that complicated."

(I'm picturing Nancy Pelosi with her hanky weeping over the poor taxpayers).

I thought these two Washington Post articles let some cooler air in:

Let's Put Down the Pitchforks by Steve Pearlstein and Inside AIG-FP, Feeling the Public's Wrath:

A sense of fear hung in the room -- the palpable, unsettling kind that flashes across people's eyes. But there was anger, too. No one would express it publicly, of course. Who wants to hear a wealthy financier complain? And yet, within those walls off Danbury Road lies a deep sense of betrayal -- first by their former colleagues, now by their elected leaders.

The handful of souls who championed the firm's now-infamous credit-default swaps are, by nearly every account, long since departed. Those left behind to clean up the mess, the majority of whom never lost a dime for AIG, now feel they have been sold out by their Congress and their president.

'They've chosen to throw us under the bus,' said a Financial Products executive, one of several who spoke on condition of anonymity, fearing reprisals. 'They have vilified us.'"

So now I've quoted three articles from the Post. How unusual. Maybe there is something about March . . .

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/20/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/19/2009

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Goosed

"Calculated Risk says: 'All, this is a huge move. Announcing the buying of longer term treasuries has had a huge impact. This will push mortgage rates down significantly too.'"



"BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- Home-builder stocks were higher Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it will provide more support to mortgage and housing markets by purchasing up to an additional $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, bringing its total purchases of these securities to up to $1.25 trillion this year. Also, the Fed will increase its purchases of agency debt this year by up to $100 billion to a total of up to $200 billion".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/18/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/17/2009

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I thought this was an interesting example of price changes in Warrenton -- a single-family house that recently went under contract in 17 days for (I assume) close to the asking price of $400,000.

Prior Sales:

8/9/2002 (new): $363,755
3/29/2006: $567,000
4/8/2008: $411,000
3/17/2009: $400,000 (contract)

The 2008 sale was not a bank sale.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/16/2009

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Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 3/14-3/15 2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/13/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/12/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/11/2009

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Realtor Julie Emery reports: "If you're looking at properties in Prince William County that are under $350K we're back to multiple offers, bidding wars and potential buyers tripping over each other in houses." You can click to read her experience showing three houses there yesterday.

Staying a Step Ahead in the Foreclosure Market

Realtor Frank LLosa (creator of the indispensable FranklyMLS) explains how you (with the help of a real estate agent with MRIS access) can use the MRIS to scout out bank-owned properties that aren't yet on the market:

Northern Virginia February Housing Sales

February sales were up year-over-year in every Northern Virginia county with the exception of Arlington County, where sales were down 34% (to a record low for February with only 90 sales). Months of inventory in Arlington reached an 11-year high, but inventory showed a year-over-year decline in every other area, the most dramatic being Prince William County with a decline to 5 months' from 16 months' worth last year.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/10/2009

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February sales will be out today at MRIS. I'll post the sales data this afternoon.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/9/2009

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Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 3/7-3/8 2009

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Real Estate Market stories (h/t Zerodown):

Gloomy Outlook -- NYT

Time to Get off the Fence? -- WP

My favorite quote from the Post article:

"Nonetheless, they will both miss the thrill of the hunt.

'I actually just find it an interesting hobby at this point,' he said. 'I am a little addicted.'

'You get into search mode, and it's kind of hard to stop,' she said.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/6/2009

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Ouch:

(AP) -- A federal grand jury has charged the former chairman and chief executive of KB Home with multiple counts of fraud and other crimes related to a stock option backdating scheme that authorities say bilked the homebuilder's shareholders out of millions of dollars.

The 20-count indictment returned Thursday charges Bruce E. Karatz with 15 counts of mail, wire and securities fraud, four counts of making false statements in reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and one count of lying to the company's accountants, according to the U.S. attorney for the Central District of California.

Karatz, 63, faces up to 415 years in prison if convicted on all charges.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/5/2009

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/4/2009

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In the news: No agreement yet on Prince William County property tax rates.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/3/2009

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Current Inventory and the "Jim Ratio"

Here is an inventory chart that includes the "Jim Ratio", assuming that the difference between "active" and "total" is in fact "pending" according to these numbers at Virginia MLS.

The Jim Ratio is Realtor/Blogger Jim Klinge's ratio of the number of active listings, divided by the number of pending listings.

Score Guide

under 3 -- Hot market
3-4 -- Regular market
4-5 -- Market in trouble
5-7 -- Too many choices, buyers are winning
7+ -- Freefall

Update 3/3 - Cara clarifies that these numbers are fudgey for us in this current market where most sales in PWC (for example) are foreclosure sales (I don't know the exact percentage, but let's say conservatively more than half). I opened this post by saying "assuming" normal "pendings" are the difference between active and total listings. But this isn't a normal market, considering all the foreclosure sales. And inventory might be artificially low due to banks holding onto shadow inventory and sellers being reluctant to list unless it's absolutely necessary. Cara also makes a very good point about lingering listings that should normally be removed faster but tend to stay on and stink up the place.

"Cara said ... Another obvious thing to point out about the Jim numbers. In most market times REO and short sales are the exception. So, the average time from contract to close is longer now than normal, thus many more zombie listings (or nascent sales) are on the MLS than would usually be the case. At a guess this could be corrected for by adding 0.5 to 1.0 to the Jim ratio. This still makes PWC a healthy market, but not hot. Maybe this was too obvious for anyone to bother pointing it out. But comparing these numbers directly to years past when closings were less complicated is obviously fraught with fudge factors."

These inventory numbers were extrapolated from VirginiaMLS.com. The total "Northern Virginia Inventory" represent the combined housing inventory (that's listed on the MLS) of Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/2/2009

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