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Tuesday, December 8, 2009
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62 comments:
When Kiplinger has an article that says it's not time to buy yet, (as tbw pointed out yesterday) and the NY Times is giving tips on buying REO's and short sales:
NY Times on REO's and short sales
My take-away is that the real deals are well behind us.
Remember way back when, when we used to say that when the mainstream media hopped on the doomsday wagon then we'd know the bottom had passed?
Irvine Renter from the Irvine Housing Blog has become a broker, and switched over to selling real estate including taking down the forums. Patrick and Calculated Risk comments are filled with nut-cases (whereas they used to be a useful insightful
bunch). The old guard around here mostly only comes out to whine and point figures at each other about who was dumber or meaner two years ago.
Price could go lower. It's true. But that's always true. House prices, whether on a nominal or a real basis CAN and DO go down some of the time.
The shift is zeitgeist is here. Buyer's who are buying now are buying homes. Not investments. (aside from the flippers providing needed liquidity to the REO market). That's the sign of the bottom. When sentiment and motivation has changed.
This is still bad news for condos and townhouses. Because belief in the ladder has been shaken, and people will still stretch for that longer term home, especially now. I'm seeing demand for any TH over $320k shrink dramatically, unless it's one of those that is demonstrably nicer than a single family home of a similar price.
Will there be more of a shake down? There could be. Will there be a winter price correction? I assume so, I see no reason why there wouldn't be. Will there continue to be some good REO and short sale deals out there to be found, as well as long-time owners with the wherewithal to accept a lower offer in order to sell quickly? Of course. The next 3 years should all be good times to buy.
Good luck all, keep saving that down-payment and emergency funds and retirement and 529... and when you're ready, I hope you all find homes that you'll enjoy for many many years to come.
Cara-
I agree with most of your points, and while I think there is a little downside left it will be small compared to the drops that have already happened.
I have heard that banks are starting to push short sales instead of foreclosures, to reduce loss severities. If this is true and the share of short sales/REOs increases I think there may be some better deals for buyers.
Personally I think short sales are win win for the buyer & bank assuming the buyer is patient. Short sales tend to have comparable prices with REOs but less damage since someone is still living there. The banks win, because the process takes 6 months rather than 2 years so they lose less interest and fees related going through the foreclosure process.
Frankly has a new feature. Now shorts that have "approved" in the comments section have a light green star rather than a black star next to the price.
(at least that's what I think he did...)
Thus it's now easier to look for shorts that might have a shorter time frame for closing than others, while still looking at the full MLS inventory.
housebuyer,
Do you really think it takes 2 years in Virginia? Our system is not the same as other states that require things to go before a judge at somepoint. The bloomberg article was still putting short sales at a 1 to 25 ratio with foreclosures, so they're still having a miniscule impact.
And I have to say, some of the shorts I've seen, having the "owners" continue to live there is not a plus in terms of the maintainence or upkeep. The number of in-use showers I've seen with bottom-level tiles that are just propped against the wall is astounding. Having them continue to shower there every day is hurting the property, not helping it.
But yes, some short sales are in good condition, and are good deals. As are some REOs.
Cara-
I guess that is true that REOs are quicker in VA than many states so 2 years is probably long. Either way most short sales take 4-6 months. Most banks would not have even started the foreclosure process until this time period is up so make it only saves 6-12 months rather than 18.
I have seen PDFs that show short sales as ~25-30% of 2006 vintage loan sales. It is possible that this number agrees with 1 in 25 when you account for all vintages, but it seems unlikely. Also on franklymls I have seen only slightly more REOs than Short Sales so unless almost all foreclosures don't make it to REO I have trouble believing the Bloomberg articles.
speaking of shorts, we saw this home yesterday morning, and in the afternoon i saw the price dropped another $25K. i don't think it's gonna happen at current price either. it's the kind of short that even though it's vacant it still feels like occupied. it also sort of has to compete with this regular sale home two doors down listed at $499K.
Cara,
I agree with you. I saw a friend in Dec of 2008 purchase a foreclosure and ended up with a really great home right in Falls Church. Sure there might be a little more downside on normal sales but he got in at a great price.
Thing is, he wasn't a RE guru. He was simply going through as many REOs as he could to meet a price point. And he ended up with a great deal.
When I started looking in April, there were significantly fewer options to look at than he had.
My $0.02
House Flipping Makes a Comeback
Not endorsing this, but some posters here may find it interesting.
housebuyer,
I just think that both are national numbers. Given the percentage of REOs that are in Vegas/Miami... a 1 to 25 seems totally plausible to me. 1 short sale completed here for every 25 foreclosed homes in Phoenix. That's plausible.
Here I think the shorts actually drag out the process, or length of time an underwater delinquent borrower is allowed to stay in the home. Most shorts are under contract in my area, but still there are plenty that have now sat on the market for a very long time with or without offers, because the bank won't accept the reality of the price they'd need to accept in order to sell the place.
up to $450k shorts
Okay if you sort by DOMp, then I'm being misled by outliers, out of almost 200 SS listings (not all of which are shorts, I didn't do the search quite carefully enough) only 15 have been on the market over 150 days or 5 months. I'm just being misled from the dragger in Woodwalk, and this one house that's a short that keeps increasing its list price....
MM,
but is the fixer upper in livable condition? How much money is it going to take to make it so?
It does indeed make the short seem overpriced, and from the pictures the bedrooms and kitchen seemed tiny.... It does beg for a buyer who loves gardening... At the same time it is cute. But I know nothing about prices in that area. (or rather I'm too lazy to find out).
And frank's got %list in the solds data!
Just picking on a random agent, because she had the lowest percent of list in my neighborhood in the last year:
Shryl Lambson 2009
Anyway, 'tis good fun.
(it may be a little buggy for the time being, and you can't sort by it yet, but go have fun)
Cara,
Perhaps ole Shryl is "buying listings".
p.s. can't help but think that I read that reo article info very recently....
Robert's link, that is.
Cara-
She is the buyers agent on some of those including the one listing that was 74% of list.
She did a good job as a buyers agent in getting people places well below list. The 3 listings she got buyers were all 91% of list or better.
housebuyer
Indeed, she didn't actually come out too bad.
And there are two columns. %0L and %List. The 74% is compared to the original list price. In terms of deciding on who to hire as a listing agent, this info is useful. Are they just buying the listing? Are they only interested in selling quickly (i.e. do too many sell for within 98% of list)? But in terms of bidding, this tiny terrible sample, would say that price drops are how lower sales prices happen not low-balls, but 10% under list is totally within the realm of the possible.
housebuyer,
Wrong column, those are 98%, 99% and 100% from the final list price.
Cara-
Thanks I didn't see the correct column. I am not sure it is that useful on the listing side either. She may just accept people who are willing to put really high offer prices, but tells them that this price is high so they end up taking a large percentage off of list.
I guess with little to no other information this is as good an indicator as anything else so you are right that people may want to avoid her as a listing agent.
housebuyer,
I wouldn't say this list says to avoid her. Of course I also feel terrible for chosing someone at random that I've never even met. It's just that this list show you should take her advice with a grain of salt. Which doesn't mean you should't pick her on either end.
Mostly these are going to reflect the general trends in the sub-markets. Which is part of what Frank's intending us to use them for. To help decide how to interpret list prices in terms of what they actually mean about what homes are selling for.
Such as if everything you like is priced at $500k or up, and your absolute max is $450k, should you be bothering to bid now or not? If most sell for 5-8% off list, and a few for slightly more than 10% off list, you should be seriously considering putting in offers, despite the lists in the low $500's.
http://franklymls.com/FX7217915
The REO deals are coming. SFH listed for $331,900.
c, are you there?
For those looking for REOs there will be more again soon. (I just don't think it will be significantly better than last year).
Cara, that sold for $146k in 1998. I would pay that price for that house if it were in Vienna, but not Springfield.
Nov. Jobs Report "Looked Fabricated", Expect Harder Times in 2010
"Cara says - My take-away is that the real deals are well behind us. "
I respect your take-away. I have to disagree, we haven't seen the real bottom yet.
Kevin,
The Franconia Springfield blue line station only opened in 1997.
Do you really think the convenience of that was already priced in by 1998? Given that Springfield entered the last long slow flat period with no rapid transit, I don't see how that holds water. (VRE opened in 1992).
kev,
Albeit I agree that even $331k is a bit ambitious, and way tooo close to the prices of recent "organic" sales to be considered a real deal.
The deals were last winter:
Newington Forest detached 3bd,4bdr,5bdr
Think we'll see those ~$250k prices again? We may.... but if this sells close to asking we won't.
Cara, for the most part I do. I think as soon as it's announced that the metro is coming, there's an immediate increase in the fundamental value of houses in the area. But assuming that it wasn't, it was bought in 2007 for $479,900, more than three times that amount. Now it's listed for 70% of this "peak price". Not a good deal, as far as I can tell. But you know the area better than I do.
kevin,
The Springfield/Burke areas houses didn't start appreciating until 1999/2000, they were literally flat during the last flat period, so, no, a new metro station needs transactions to get priced in, like anything else. Do you even remember how cheap gas was in 1998?
30% off peak is more than the region as a whole has done... Compared to the steals of last year's REOs it's a rip-off and that it's only at most 5-10% off the recent real sales, I'd say it is "ambitiously priced". But ambitiously priced REOs is the norm right now for Springfield/Burke. Whether they will sell with only a 10% discount or not is another question.
In any case, my initial purpose, which I did not convey well, was to point out that the winter's REO's are starting to blossom. Whether there will be enough of them to force prices back down to the $210-$260k of last spring is the question.
"Cara said...
Remember way back when, when we used to say that when the mainstream media hopped on the doomsday wagon then we'd know the bottom had passed?"
Im still waiting for Time Magazine to say "housing will never come back" that will be the best v shaped contra-indicator possible.
"Patrick and Calculated Risk comments are filled with nut-cases (whereas they used to be a useful insightful"
No Kidding!!! While CR continues to put out good stuff, I am shocked at how much the comment quality has degraded (I never was that high on permadoomer Patrick to begin with).
"The old guard around here mostly only comes out to whine and point figures at each other about who was dumber or meaner two years ago."
We are now entering into the one year anniversary of some of the peak "glug glug glug" period of comments on this site. I look back at them now and really have to bite my tongue...
Can someone please clarify: what does it mean for the agent to "buy the listing?"
Right now, I'm looking at a place that is way over our budget (like, 50k over), but we're considering it because it is a short sale that has had numerous price drops. We're thinking that a lowball offer just might fly. I used frankly to check out how the listing agent fared with his other sales. It seems that he got way less than the listing price, in most cases. But perhaps he "bought the listings?"
REdealseeker,
We don't mean they literally paid to list it, we just mean that they flattered the owner with a higher price than was reasonable to expect to get. Once a listing agreement has been signed, then they try to convince the owner to drop their price later.
Sounds like you're dealing with one of those. And thus that a low-ball may fly. On short sales, the seller essentially doesn't care what the offer is (so long as the bank lets them out of any further obligation). So if you are the only buyer out there, you might as well offer your wishing price. It's the lender that will be effectively countering that price later on, once they've reached a decision on how low they should accept.
Has the listing agent closed any other shorts before? (*'s on the price in both sales and lists)
Thanks, Cara. I'm glad it was just a metaphor for having overpriced a property. It's passive aggressive: sure, I can market the property at your delusional price, but then you'll see that we have to get down to the business of pricing the property realistically.
On frankly, I see 5 solds under his name, one of which was from the boom years ('06). The one, plus three others, were short sales. One of them has the green asterisk, so it was approved before the time of sale. So, he has SS experience.
What I also notice is that he has currently has 11 active listings, with all but 3 under contract. ALL of his current listings are short sales. I am wondering why there are so fewer solds. Even if he does have SS experience, it might mean that a lot of these will fall through the cracks? Or, are short sales that don't make it to the sold table just par for the course?
"Cara, that sold for $146k in 1998. I would pay that price for that house if it were in Vienna, but not Springfield."
Yeah, you and 100 other people.
You aren't going to see 1998 prices again.
That was at the end of a long stagnant period to start with and there has been a decade of inflation since then. A house priced at 146k now would be a significantly cheaper house than one priced at 146 ten years ago.
REdealseeker,
It's about par for the course. The time-span is bank dependent not realtor dependent. How old are the under contract listings? If you go to sawbuck you can find out when they went under contract and whether they've fallen in and out.
Short sales not happening has more to do with buyer's giving up on them or finding better deals in the meantime. As far as I can tell...
That only one had a green astericks is actually a good sign, it means he's sincerely trying to close the deal for the first buyer, not trolling for an offer, just so that he can get a solid price from the bank to bring back to the market.
Actually, perhaps my latter point about his lack of solds is not relevant: all but one are in 2009. Perhaps there is not complete information about his solds on frankly. (Of course, we retail consumers wouldn't have this information available to us if it weren't for frankly.)
Leroy,
I think you misread what he meant. I'm pretty sure he meant $331k for "that" price. I.e. he'd consider paying $331k for that home if it were in Vienna, but not Springfield.
Cara, yes 30% off of peak is correct for the region as well, hence housing prices overall are way too high and due for some serious correction. We've seen some serious corrections in the outer areas that might well have bottomed. But IMO that price for Springfield is too high.
REdealseeker,
Have you tried reducing the search queries down to just the agent's first and last name? He may either be young, or have switched brokers.
Correct, Leroy misread my poorly written post. I would pay the current listing price for that house were it in Vienna. No way am I expecting something like that in Springfield near the metro to fall to its 1998 value.
kevin,
Whereas I think that the 15% metro premium hadn't been priced in yet. And the real wage-inflation adjusted prices won't be reached until 2013, such that 1.04^15 * 1.15 gives a bottom price of 2.07* 1998 prices in 2013.
Otherwise known as $302k, or 10% off current list. Which, is easily within bidding distance.
Doubling in 11 years during which time the proximity of the metro got priced in, is not as unreasonable as you seem to think it is.
The point I'm trying to make is, when you see a good REO deal this winter, in Vienna or wherever you're looking, don't pass it up. Bid on it, you might get lucky.
Now, maybe Vienna Oakton won't get enough REOs to make for any real deals. That's possible. But I think you are vastly underestimating how many REOs there were in Springfield/Burke compared to Woodbridge/Mannassas in terms of our progress towards true and sustainable price discover. I know, to you this implies that Springfield should also be just as low in price as Woodbridge, but there I just have to say your geography sucks.
Interesting take on having only one price approved short sale prior to sale. Sort of counterintuitive for the buyer thinking about what the best kinds of short sales are, because pre-approved short sales seem extremely attractive for their low price and lack of wait time. That preapproved SS was on the market for quite awhile, so I can imagine the preapproval might have
happened sometime in that long duration of being on the market.
Haven't checked Sawbuck yet, but it sounds like a great feature.
Well, since we're not currently living in an uncomfortable rabbit hole, and my husband's commute isn't unbearable, we can probably sit and wait it out if we make an acceptable offer.
Cara, all good points. Believe me, I'm ready to close in two weeks if I see something good appear on the market. I'm probably not *as* picky as I portray (though I'm adamant about my preconditions from buying in Vienna, which are at this point very unlikely), so who knows what will happen.
It's an interesting question about when something like the metro changes the value of a house. I think it starts as soon as it's rumored and increases even more when it becomes official, gets built, etc. This is something I've considered maybe writing a dissertation or using as a thesis study example some day in the future. I'd like to try to answer the real questions about the fundamental values of real estate based on location. The data is out there, and it can be modeled. The problem is that the bubble screwed everything up. It would be too hard to build controls into a model like that. I'd have to either study an area that didn't see a housing bubble or use a time period that's at least a decade old. But that's neither here nor there....
Ah ok, my mistake.
I see your frustation Kevin:
vienna solds with bank somewhere in the listing
Only one of these all last year was within your price range and not a total wreck:
http://franklymls.com/FX6925612
But note that it sold for over 10% off list!!! For a final price of $333k.
I see why, given that you'd prefer a single family or a garage townhome, you only have one salary, and you feel your upper limit is under $350k, why you're so certain prices must come down to meet you. But given that even in the depths of last winter, REO prices mostly didn't come under $375k... I'd say a better bet is to continue in your incredibly cheap rental, until your savings make a $400k+ pricetag do-able for you.
Or when you see those $375k ones again, bid on them, you might win.
It's not that I feel the prices must come down to meet me, but rather reality. I remember when I was house hunting back in '02. I was considering one of those old Vienna houses, but they were slightly out of my price range at the time. Here I am making probably 60% more than I was then, and the houses are unaffordable by a much higher margin. I would only stretch myself above $350k for a house I really like, I will stay in a long time, and that I don't believe has significant price discovery in the future. Vienna fails on at least the second and third of this criteria and given that I'm not too wild about these lower end tear-downs, probably fails the first as well.
Also, nothing has been on the market since the awful tax credit started that's even worth glancing at. Maybe when this garbage goes away and reality rears its ugly head I'll be more serious.
Another appealing reason for the short sale I'm looking at, the price I'm interested in paying is about 30% lower than the highest priced properties on that street. I think that the properties are comparable enough to say that the price difference makes this one a true deal. So, I'm assuming that even if the market does fall, it's not too likely that we'd be significantly or at all underwater.
kevin:
"It's not that I feel the prices must come down to meet me, but rather reality. "
It's your unshakeable determination that "meeting reality" and "meeting you" happen to coincidentally occur at such a similar price point that I question. You could end up being correct, but to call it "reality" is to assign to yourself a greater degree of infallibility than I think anyone has the right to.
Now I'm just being a bitch, and for that I apologize. The $475+ and higher that the regular sales are going for are enough to make anyone feel that a further correction is just what the doctor ordered.
REdealseeker,
Shorts when they work, and when the bank let's them go for under market value are some of the best deals around.
If you have the patience, go for it!
what's wrong with this new listing? nothing, except accordingly to anielarke, two doors down live "one of Arlington's most notorious hoarders." it seems that it's listed just below market but not with a 'terrible neighbor discount' i wonder how many agents would tell interested buyers that...
worth go take a look though.
Cara: "It's your unshakeable determination that "meeting reality" and "meeting you" happen to coincidentally occur at such a similar price point that I question."
If you were to take the equivalent of my experience and salary now, and place it back in 2002, I could easily afford those Vienna houses (one of which I'm renting very easily right now). They don't "happen to coincidentally occur" there. It's not like I'm taking some Great Falls mansion and projecting it to what I can afford. I'm talking about houses that haven't come down much from peak prices and whose rental price comparisons are outrageously far off. Good grief.
Cara: "Now I'm just being a bitch, and for that I apologize."
Forgiven. I'm not even serious about buying one of these anymore as I don't really like them.
Afaik banks have only recently started letting short sales go through without much of a fight - how can this be a signal that the 'deals are behind us'.
It says to me they are realizing it's time to stop fighting the wave and instead start mitigating losses.
Honestly Cara you might've well have said 'Never a better time to buy'.
Kevin-
I consider this something near average. I am going to use its tax assessments rather than its sales prices because that helps your case (the sales price in 2001 is actually 10% higher than the 2002 assessment.)
http://franklymls.com/FX7120665
I think too be conservative you could say an equal position paid 20% less in 2002. This is probably slower wage growth than actually happened. I will assume you make 100K now and 80K then the numbers are not really important just that you made 20% less back then.
In 2002 the house was 290K and interest rates were ~7% so your payment would have been 1929. 1929/(80K/12)= 28.9% of gross income going to your mortgage
The current assesment is 464K and interest rates are 5% so your payment would be 2491. 2491/(100K/12)=29.9%.
So 1% more of your income would be going to housing now than it was in 2002. In reality in 2002 this house would go for more than the assessment and now it would go for less than the assessment making it more affordable now.
I understand there is a big risk that interest rates could go up putting you underwater, but the monthly payment is just as affordable as it was in 2002. Do you disagree with my math or do you think this house is not representative?
Housebuyer, I don't disagree with the math but find the house to be highly unrepresentative both of that neighborhood (which I'm pretty familiar with), and a SFH in that zip with a 2-car garage.
Kevin-
I agree that was a little surprised about the 2002 assessment for that house. Which is why I used the assessment rather than saying that in 2002 you probably were paying something close to the 2003 assessment.
Here are a couple of other options
http://franklymls.com/FX7166745 (it is list 7% below assessment as a short sale. At this price the house has only appreciated 22% in 7 years)
http://franklymls.com/FX7000711 (This was sold for 287 in 2000 and is listed for 449 now a 56% increase. Although this is a low the monthly payment has only gone up 11% in the last decade)
http://franklymls.com/FX7155525 (for this one you need to assume that in 2002 the house would have sold between the 2002 vs 2003 assessment for payments to be similar)
I am sure that I could check more and find plenty where the payments have not gone up once you adjust for wages. I think the problem is people care about their payment and don't think about what would happen if rates went to 7 or 8%. I guess they figure if that happens they will just need to stay there a little longer. The problem is that as an investment you want to buy when rates are high and going down rather than the other way around. Although if you just think of it as a cost of living the total homeownership cost right now really isn't that bad.
Although obviously it would be great to be in most of the country were prices are only up 5-10% from 2002, so your mortgage is actually much lower than it would have been back then.
Housebuyer,
What is your perspective on the stickiness of home prices to go down in response to increasing interest rates?
It seems to me that the real answer hinges on one's expectation for wage inflation. How does one predict that accurately?
Regarding the Franconia-Springfield Metro stop...
People in that area have had a local Metro stop since 1983 -- Huntington on the Yellow Line. Then Van Dorn Street opened up in 1991. Franconia-Springfield was last in 1997. Obviously F-S is more convenient for many than Huntington in terms of location and starting on the Blue Line but it's not like someone in Springfield would have found driving to Huntington a humongous schlep (or transferring to the Blue Line a couple stops in if needed). So some value to F-S (and Van Dorn) but probably not as dramatic as when Huntington opened up.
When I was a little kid taking the Metro on field trips I remember how the Metro maps had many, many stops that were dashed (to show they were planned). Most of the dashes (this was late 80s-90s) were the Green Line but there were dashes showing the extension out to Franconia-Springfield (and on the eastern side out to Morgan Boulevard and Largo Town Center.) So it was well known for years that stop was coming.
Cara/Kevin/TBW,
The Newington Forest subdivision is adjacent to Lorton and the former prison site. Congress passed the law to close the Lorton Reformatory in October 1998 and the prison land was transfered to the county in July 2002. There has been a huge transformation in that area since the prison closed.
Some of these subdivisions, I think, also got an extra bubble effect when South County opened in 2005. Newington Forest was redistricted from Hayfield to South County. SCSS was the first middle or high school built in that part of the county since Lake Braddock opened in 1971.
I could definitely see closing a nearby prison raising property values!
Ivan,
People on here have been successfully buying short sales for at least 1.5 years. And I'm talking regular folks buying for themselves like dgg.
What part of anytime in the next three years didn't compute for you? But truthfully I think this winter's REOs and shorts may be the last of a good thing. Why? because by the time next winter rolls around, the DC area will be out of the recession. As will many other parts of the country. Which means more buyers, and more competition for the remaining deals. If REO's like the one I posted sells for over $300k, then the next REO listed won't need to list under $300k to find a buyer... It's a bunch of strung together if's. But you need a chain reaction. And with some move-up buyers freed up... this winter could go either way. But by next winter? The real steals may be gone.
kevin,
Ever heard the expression you never step in the same river twice? Just because the market has circled back doesn't mean that the pockets of affordability will be in the same places. That's what you're asking for. Or what you think constitutes "reality". Even if prices in the overall metro area returned to 2003, the places that are the best values are not going to be the same ones as they were then. It's never the same river.
Besides-which 2010 is not comparable to 2002 in market dynamics, it's comparable to whenever the end of the last bubble was. Dynamics matter.
thanks Hayfieldgrad,
Yeah, closing a prison, that's a pretty darn important detail.
Do you agree that if you could get it for 10% off list that this house is a pretty good deal?
tbw, kevin,
I think the stumbling distance premium gets priced in ahead of time and the most quickly. Being a convenient 1-3 mile drive, first of all is true of many many more homes, like 5-10 thousand? At least? and second of all, buyers aren't going to be factoring it in until they're going to be able to use it. With it spread across so many more houses, why buy from the seller who's pre-pricing in the better commute 1-2 years ahead of time, when their neighbor isn't? Yes, one can drive to Huntington, but that garage isn't that big. It's packed now, with Franconia Springfield taking some of the heat away...
And I think Hayfield Grad has a big point about the addition of South County. As Arkey would point out, look where they're building schools, that's where things are improving.
Jaime-
I think that prices will be pretty sticky around current levels. I think during this winter to when the buyers credit ends we may see 5-10% drops, but I expect prices to settle around that area and then be stagnant for 5+years, before you see normal appreciation.
I agree the answer is very dependent on wages inflation, which is tied to normal inflation. My best guess is that the week job market will keep inflation subdued for the next year or 2 in the 0%-1% range. After that I see the lose monetary policy pushing it to the 3%-4% for several years. I don't think there is really any way to perfectly predict what is going to happen. If there was you could make a fortune betting on inflation rates and things like that.
My best guess is the exciting part of this story is played out. If you keep your eyes open there will probably be some good deals with distressed properties but I don't see housing getting dramatically cheaper going forward.
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