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Thursday, December 24, 2009
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17 comments:
Some nuggets from calculated risk:
Linky
Housing starts are now moving sideways ...
New Home Sales are now moving sideways ...
The housing market index (HMI) was at 16 in December. This is a decline from 17 in November. Note: any number under 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.
MBA Purchase Index - The four week average is close to a 12 year low, and has declined sharply over the last two months.
LoanPerformance announced this week that house prices fell 0.7% in October. The Case-Shiller index will probably show a decline in October too.
The excess housing unit problem could be fixed by lower house prices and lower rents. Rents are now falling, and house prices have started falling again - so that will help.
Oh, spider. You and the national news again. Here are some nuggets on the local economy:
Over the course of the national
recession employment in the D.C. region has only fallen by 0.7 percent.
As I've said before we will surpass our pre-recession job totals by 2Q10. Probably sooner based on this report.
In the third quarter of 2009 alone, the number of
government jobs in the D.C. region increased 0.9 percent.
That's around 25,000
Gross metropolitan product (GMP) in the Washington region expanded for the second consecutive quarter, at a faster rate in the third quarter than the second quarter.
Since the fourth quarter of 2008 output (GMP) has risen 1.6 percent after dipping slightly in the first quarter of 2009. This was the second strongest performance
among the top 100 metros after Austin, TX.
During the third quarter, Washington-area GMP increased by 1.6 percent in the Washington region, up from 0.6 percent in the second quarter of 2009.
And if you dig deeper, you'll see that NOVA and parts of DC are driving all of this growth.
Robert -
As I said before and say it again & again - there is no evidence that our region performed any differently during the bubble, after the bubble or the market reaction in last 6 months to government intervention. This is a fact....
You might say, it will behave differently from now on...my point is that - it hasn't been the case. I will believe it when I see it in the data....
yesterday Anon and @J@
were wondering why we dont have massive inflation.
Simple M3 has been collapsing.
while the feds and bernanke have been printing money the banks have been cutting lending. As they continue t deleverage the toal amount of cash adn credit in circulation have ground to a halt, that's why we have such massive
excess reserves in the banks
they got free money from TARP and they loan it to bernanke at 2.5%
easy money.
pat said.. the banks have been cutting lending
BINGO!
It'll be the bears worst nightmare when they start lending again.
spider said...Robert -
As I said before and say it again & again - there is no evidence that our region performed any differently during the bubble, after the bubble or the market reaction in last 6 months to government intervention. This is a fact....
You might say, it will behave differently from now on...my point is that - it hasn't been the case. I will believe it when I see it in the data....
What data do you want? I think I have it.
Why would banks lend when they know assets are still inflated and will correct in due time?
Why would any banker in their right mind make the same mistake again?
Simple answer is - they won't - beyond some window-dressing.
Now you see - why government needs 8k tax credit and significant FHA participation to barely hold the false bottom.
I wonder why NVR Inc.is trading at less than 2% off its 52 week high while most of their competitors are trading at 20-50% from their 52 week high?
Could it be that 50% of their business is in the Washington/Baltimore area? Could it be that they can raise prices and increase profits?
Robert - you exactly know what I am talking about - that NoVA has followed the national pricing trend until now. There is no reason to believe this will change from now on...
On the lending front - once FHA/Fed withdraws, private lending will not support the current price levels - you know what that means....
Robert - you exactly know what I am talking about - that NoVA has followed the national pricing trend until now. There is no reason to believe this will change from now on...
Without giving you any data, why do you think there is so much angst on this board that prices haven't fallen? Isn't that enough to prove the bubble just hasn't deflated like it has in other places?
Scroll down the the fourth chart. Clearly WDC has outperformed every other market in the list since 2000.
What the hell are you talking about?
"Robert said - Scroll down the the fourth chart. Clearly WDC has outperformed every other market in the list since 2000."
You are missing the point. For example, if the national index drops 20% more, NoVa may drop 12% and flatten there after. This is still called out-performance - that doesn't change the broader trend, which is still down.
I was just watching a documentary on housing bubble - "bubble decade" on cnbc.
If you haven't yet - you should see it, if you have time. Specially, folks who are looking to buy/sell house in the near future or flippers/investors.
Merry Christmas!!
Robert
The Banks have stopped lending for basic and sound reasons and they aren't going to start lending again anytime soon.
Banks lends against Capacity, Credit and Character.
Capacity: American households are tapped out, people borrowed far above their capacity, and didn't save. if americans begin saving 6%/year that's an ass load less borrowing they will engage in.
Government is equally in debt.
Business, they don't invest, they flip, so it's all 24 hour lending to the Fortune 500.
Credit: lending to the poor was driven by securitization, that model doesn't work for the buyers of the debt. The taxpayers are going to freak out when they figure out bernanke used their money to buy their debts to keep them debt slaves.
Character: well that still appears in short supply.
banks don't lend when they think the assets may depreciate a bit, their lending biz was driven by securitization and high growth, with 14% growth, how could they lose. with 203% growth, they need 20% down, which most buyers don't have.
Okay. No more bank lending. That's really going to suck.
That figure of 25,000 jobs in my earlier post is wrong. My bad.
Housing Bust Isn't Over - Fannie, Freddie in Trouble
Robert
Not "No more bank lending"
but rather continued de-leveraging.
look at mortgages.
The banks allowed buyers in 05/06 to grow lending 300%, now, aside from
FHA, normality is returning.
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