Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
Is the Donate button new?
Hmmm, I had never noticed it before...Good question.
I actually have to wonder, with so many of the bubble blogs going belly up, I wonder how long will Harriet continue to oblige us with this site?
I think the story is basically over.
Housing Market Meltdown Not Over
Quote:"7.5 million foreclosure sales will have taken place between 2006 and 2011. The majority of these sales, however, have not emerged yet, with 4.8 million foreclosure sales expected between 2009 and 2011."
spider,38% decline by 3Q 2003, as compared to a 32% decline in early 2009. Ooo scary, another 6% to go from where it got to last year. Actually that's pretty dead on close to your prediction for the CS for the DC area spider.
Very timely article spider.
I wonder if Zandi predicted the bounce this Spring.
nationwide you do not have to be rocket scientist to understand that prices will trend down. only crazy people expect that there won't be many more foreclosures soon. and greater washington area is not an exception. when it get's to the zipcode level, gets more difficult to predict the future prices.
Cara,155 was for the composite index. There are many specific areas here that haven't corrected much at all. We have significant downside there. I am also basing my prediction on the fact that far-out suburbs don't have much more to fall (I could be proven wrong there).I am being quite conservative in my estimate of 155. As I mentioned before also, I am not discounting a possibility that we can fall below 155 (mid 2003 level). I am just not as sure about it.If we see the deflation completely taking over our economy like Japan, I think we have much more downside.My response to your prior bit's posting..Propping up housing values that have ballooned to unsustainable levels is nothing more than trying to create wealth by creating more money. Problem is, it doesn't actually work. Otherwise, everyone in this world might as well own a mansion.
Konstantin said..."Only crazy people expect that there won't be many more foreclosures soon. and greater washington area is not an exception."LOL. At the risk of putting word in your mouth - there are many people in this forum, that don't think NoVA & foreclosure go together.
spider,Who, who exactly in this forum doesn't think foreclosures are happening, have been happening and will continue to happen in the NoVa area?From the data that my realtor sent me, I know that there are 5 (potential) flippers, 5 currently bank-owned, and 5 pre-foreclosures currently on the books in the neighborhood I'll be buying in. Given that none of these has reached market yet, the reason that 15 more distressed sales doesn't scare me is that 1-3 homes per month added to the inventory of homes for sale can easily be absorbed by current demand. Your idea of what "we" think, and what has actually been hammered out here, are not really in alignment yet.The money printing isn't trying to prop up housing prices, it's trying to slow the decline to a manageable level that can remove the bad assets from the banks and investor's books and replace them with performing assets (even if those have a low yield). The incentivizing to date has over-compensated producing the effect here and in many other metro areas of increasing the seasonal swings to larger than normal volatility, which is undesirable I agree.
Cara - I wasn't talking about you. My reference was to someone like Robert and other bulls. And I meant that there are many people who strongly believe that prices in this region will not decline due to foreclosures.
So how many regulars on this site have donated?
blogger.com is a free service...
Va_Investor said... "I think the story is basically over."spider said... "Housing Market Meltdown Not Over"Kevin: LOLLLLLLLLLLLL
Just a reminder, CS is a composite for the DC Metro area. PG has been a drag. The district is flat. MoCo is slightly positive and Fairfax, LoCo, and PWC are carrying the entire index higher. I would guess NOVA is 40% of the index and MD+DC is 60%. If MD+DC is flat, NOVA is up more than double the CS numbers, which is what I think is true.
"I think the story is basically over."It never started, except for MaNascar and a few places way out there.Two places in Warwick sold below $300K this year. Congratulations to those two lucky buyers!!Frankly shows two places available at $445K and $439K.
I never said that everything is now a bed of roses, I simply said the "story" is over - ala last weeks news. Time to move along. It will play out, but the story is history.
I think this site stays active in part because we sometimes discuss other fun topics somewhat related to real estate. Like schools. ;) And how the local economy is doing. History of various areas. Ridiculous listings.I mean in reality we are just in a long holding pattern waiting to see when (Robert would say if) interest rates start trending up and how the market reacts to that. Also waiting to see if/when the housing credit ends and how the market reacts to that. Otherwise it's been pretty limited news lately.
Robert: are you asking if Zandi predicted foolish government intervention?
Novawatcher -Maybe Zandi didn't predict the "foolish" government intervention, but he should have.Long before the housing bubble ended, Ben Bernanke - before he was Fed Chairman - said he would drop dollar bills out of helicopters before he would let deflation set in. And, lo and behold, that is exactly what he is doing. So, for all the people on this board that claim to have predicted the housing bubble bursting, it should have been child's play to predict the government response.
I find this board solely interesting because of TBW's creative form of argument. He's simply smarter than I am.For instance, TBW says if the stock market goes up the real estate market goes down and vice versa.I know this isn't true. Over time, both stocks and real estate are worth more. But, can I articulate this with sound reasoning and lots of hyperlinks?Still, it helps me understand how someone like OJ Simpson and his million dollar lawyers can win an acquittal against overwhelming evidence. His lawyers were simply smarter than the government's.
Robert, It's a generational thing. Todays young adults firmly believe they can research and determine any thing of value thru the internet..making them quasi experts..I've warned my own on this delusion. You can inform yourself, educated your self in the basic understandings of any topic but you should always seek our experts in the field when making a decision. Today everyone believes they are experts on any given topic wehter its real estate, taxes, ecomney..you name it..The housing experts quoted are only running statistics and I don't even know how valid the data is. Housing gurus, investors, are buying. People with skin in the game, people planning on making a buck..thats as close as you will ever get to an expert in housing prices because housing has an incredble amount of variables that change and change without notice or on whim from commodity prices to a previously unknown factor. Robert, face it, we are old plugs that have lived through these markets but our "wisdom", experience or whatever you wish to call it is..an-ti-"dolt"all..as in dolts.
Robert,for the stocks and real estate being relatively countercyclical there is an extremely easy explanation even without interest rates/government intervention.If stock market is booming there is no reason to invest in homes where transaction costs are much larger and liquidity is much lower. So the housing prices in times of stock market boom may be increasing very little --- not more than incomes do. When the stock market boom is not there, but people still have incomes and savings they will tend to invest them in houses leading to a real estate boom. So if stock market rallies it will have somewhat negative effect compared to flat stock market --- CONTROLLING FOR THE STATE OF ECONOMY.
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