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Friday, December 11, 2009
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49 comments:
Pat said:
"Just remember we now have a wave of IO and Option ARMs going bad."
Reports are that will be a factor nationally. It will probably be a blip in our area. Option Arms represent 1.3% of mortgages and are primarily concentrated in Florida, Nevada, California and Arizona.
Government Report on HAMP
My limited on-the-ground guesstimate of the number of NOVA homeowners participating in the government's home affordable mortgage program is that the numbers are fairly significant, due to personal anecdotes and due to seeing empty homes in upscale neighborhoods. However, it would be more interesting to have actual numbers. If you can open the PDF on the gov't's HAMP website (I cannot for some reason), it provides "a break-out of the 15 metropolitan areas with the highest program activity."
Pat-
In addition to c's comments, option arms will not be as bad as any of the reports show. The charts you see were based on the resets when the loans were issued. The problem with this is that about 15-20%/year of these people have been defaulting since basically 2007. So by the time you get to mid 2010-2011 over half of the people are already gone so the wave just isn't as big. Also due tot the low fed funds rates payments will probably only go up 30%-40% rather than the 100% that was projected. Also seeing that it is taking almost 2 years to liquidate loans from when they first go delinquent you will not see this inventory until 2012-2013.
So nationally there will likely be some impact, but it just isn't going to be that big.
"Housebuyer said...
The problem with this is that about 15-20%/year of these people have been defaulting since basically 2007. So by the time you get to mid 2010-2011 over half of the people are already gone so the wave just isn't as big."
Housebuyer, in addition to the early defaults, add in the smattering of sales and modifications that have taken place...not to mention that even at its peak, there were only about 1,000 IO and Option Arms issued in close in Arl & Alex (respectively).
Also of note -- thanks to the losses seen thusfar, the peak of the option arm is no longer in 2011, it is actually right now.
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_kQmcDGJ6WuI/SKK_-yziY0I/AAAAAAAAAK0/6CmRnPRdi_g/s1600-h/0604_arm_reset.jpg
Mr. Mortgage was so right -- by the time the Option Arms hit we buyers will be awash in a TSUNAMI of inventory...glug, glug, glug...
Higher prices will snuff out any remaining foreclosures. + Investors are as active as ever. + Job creation is brining new people to the area and adding demand for housing.
Anonymous-
To be fair we won't see REOs from these for a long time, do too the lengthy foreclosure process. Given that this area doesn't have many and nationally the reset is a smaller problem than the job losses. I don't see this being very newsworthy.
As long as interest rates stay low we will only have minor declines.
Although treasuries yield has gone up pretty quickly. Since November 30th the yield went from 3.2 to 3.56 on the 10 year. I am not predicting this to continue, but if it does demand for new homes may fall slightly.
cut and pasted from the pdf
bottom line the DC, MD, VA, WV area has 3.5% of the HAMP activity. with 25k modifications in progress. Virginia as a whole only has 18k in progress, so I'll take a wild stab and say 12k in the NoVa area, tops?
Metropolitan Statistical Area
Modifications
% of Total
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA
43,873
6.0%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
42,777
5.9%
Chicago-Naperville-Joliet,
IL-IN-WI
36,208
5.0%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
34,860
4.8%
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
34,688
4.8%
Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ
30,830
4.2%
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria,
DC-VA-MD-WV
25,318
3.5%
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
22,893
3.1%
Las Vegas-Paradise, NV
16,003
2.2%
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI
15,237
2.1%
Orlando-Kissimmee, FL
14,609
2.0%
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
12,758
1.8%
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
11,627
1.6%
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy,
MA-NH
11,615
1.6%
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
11,334
1.6%
State
Modifications
State
Modifications
Alabama
5,086
Montana
982
Alaska
439
Nebraska
1,238
Arizona
37,208
Nevada
19,247
Arkansas
2,055
New Hampshire
3,301
California
148,350
New Jersey
24,299
Colorado
10,574
NewMexico
2,506
Connecticut
9,327
New York
32,305
Delaware
2,410
North Carolina
15,037
District of Columbia
1,304
North Dakota
182
Florida
90,575
Ohio
16,107
Georgia
28,305
Oklahoma
2,256
Hawaii
2,575
Oregon
8,241
Idaho
2,939
Pennsylvania
16,848
Illinois
37,552
Rhode Island
3,399
Indiana
8,224
South Carolina
7,940
Iowa
2,338
South Dakota
352
Kansas
2,181
Tennessee
8,492
Kentucky
3,240
Texas
23,963
Louisiana
4,496
Utah
6,073
Maine
1,985
Vermont
534
Maryland
23,930
Virginia
18,652
Massachusetts
16,401
Washington
14,193
Michigan
24,626
WestVirginia
1,285
Minnesota
14,154
Wisconsin
7,421
Mississippi
3,050
Wyoming
383
Missouri
9,026
Other*
645
* Includes Guam, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.
Note: Figures include active trial and permanent modifications. They do not
Maryland has more active/trial and permanent modifications than Virginia. What does that say?
Thanks, Cara. Looks like these include "active trial and permanent" mods, so the denied applicants are not included....and cannot easily be estimated. But with so much other positive news, I'm wondering what inventory we'll see in the coming few months, before spring season. Given our requirements (newer home, lower price, decent commute to the tech corridor), I think Loudoun is our best bet.
My husband saw the short sale we'd thought we'd get for a steal. He said that for a 500k+ home, the rooms were really small. It was a home built in 1995, in Sterling, in the relatively good school district. So, we're back to the drawing board, at a time when we should have already found a deal, I think!
Given that the courts are involved in MD foreclosures (I think it's a "judicial" state), wouldn't that mean that troubled homeowners would been in that troubled state for a greater length of time? And would have more time to apply for HAMP? By contrast, troubled VA homeowners might have faced speedier foreclosures? These are simply assumptions.
REdealseeker,
That's my assumption too, more distressed MD homeowners survived until the HAMP started up.
Then again, when you said that the bottom is in, you are referring to properties under 500k?
And if the bottom is not in for properties over 500k? What does that mean for mid-level prices?
REdealseeker,
Don't take my comment too seriously, spring/summer and under $300k was what I was planning on buying, so it was mostly a wishful thinking prediction. IIRC.
I'm just desperately looking for tiny silver linings, and am about to start going crazy, I've been searching so hard, to the point where I just might consult a psychic. But, it's also personal - my husband is very particular about certain things, while I tend to be more flexible. When he expresses aversion to white kitchens, and demands full brick fronts, I sometimes have to tell him, "get over it," especially since we're looking for a deal. He's beginning to "get it" and seems to be "getting over it."
REdealseeker,
I can totally empathize on the picky husband thing. I was totally fine with a townhouse. Dragged him around to tons of them. He occasionally would be okay with one of them, but really he hated them all. Suddenly I show him some SFH's and everything changes. He thinks they're all adorable. (once they're over 1200 sq feet)
So there could likewise be something he really wants in a home, that would cause it to be outside your comfort-zone price-wise, that's making him nit-picky about the homes you're seeing. Maybe he really wants over an acre. Maybe he really wants a barn. Maybe he really wants to be in Great Falls, or Arlington or something but doesn't want to admit it to himself because it would cost too much.
In my husband's case he laid enough background that it was clear that a single family home was really his heart's desire. I just wasn't listening to it for the longest time, because he also was adamant about keeping the price-tag under $300k.
Are there hints your husband is laying? Do you stand a chance of being able to make them happen?
I know, now I sound like the worst schill ever, but given my experience and waiting_too's experience (in a higher bracket) perhaps this is a common problem. Not admitting to ourselves that our taste is both expensive, and yet totally within reason for our incomes.
HB
While there aren't that many Option ARMS here in the DC MSA there are plenty of IO's.
As for investors, I welcome them, I encourage them, they are greasing the way down.
There are 2 types of investors, people who invest for Flips and people who invest for cash flow.
The rents are still below the cost of purchase so if investors want to subsidize the rental market cool.
As for investing for flips.
I"m not sure that's a sustainable model.
Honestly i think Bernanke is waiting to get reconfirmed and then he's going to jack up interest rates.
The desire to squeeze the dems pre election is just too strong in him.
REdealSEEKER
be cool, lots of deals coming.
pat-
Goodluck on having Bernanke jack up interest rates. It is possibly but I really doubt it. Basically everytime I hear him he says that tight money is why the great depression was so bad and that he will not make this mistake. We have some IO loans, but I still doubt there are enough to really kill prices. I still contend unless interest rates go way up prices will not fall very much.
pat,
You seem to be grasping at straws. A different reason everyday for the inevitable crash.
Whatever makes you happy. I've tried to be a realist, while acknowledging no crystal ball.
I've never thought it crucial to catch the bottom. Timing is a fool's game. Although my prior comments have been grossly misrepresented (to what end, I don't know), I don't profess to have the ability to predict the future.
RE has always been cyclical. Buy when it makes sense, but I clearly wouldn't require an absolute bottom (only seen in hindsight) to buy.
"housebuyer said...
Anonymous-
To be fair we won't see REOs from these for a long time, do too the lengthy foreclosure process."
True, but before they disappear into the quagmire of the shadow REO pipeline, we would expect many of these sellers at least try to sell (either on their own, or via short sale). Yet, inventory just keeps on going down, down, down...
"Va_Investor said...
pat,
You seem to be grasping at straws. A different reason everyday for the inevitable crash."
Pat has seen the stats showing a scarcity of IO/Option Arms in the DC areas that have held up, yet he refuses to believe them. Its a coping mechanism. Seeing the stats was a real "kick in the nuts" for those of us hoping for the fabled TSUNAMI Mr. Mortgage glug glug gluged about (before he went into hiding and pulled his infamous "the quickening" video). I understand his reluctance to accept it, but give him time, he will come around.
Leroy said
This isn't that different from their college rankings... that is to say their primary goal is to sell their publication, not give a true "ranking."
To that end it is advantageous for them to tweak their ranking system every year so that schools move up and down the lists.
Do you really think high-schools or colleges are changing that much on a yearly basis?
Actually there *is* a lot of stability to US News's college rankings (and law school, medical school, and business school rankings). Colleges do move up and down the list but in relatively limited manners. Yale might be #1 one year and then #3 the next.
Here we are seeing high schools go from top 100 to not making their top 2,000 or however many get "honorable mention" or above. That's a lot more volatility than we see on their other rankings.
Anonymous-
I agree you would likely see some amount of them trying to do a short sale, which as of now has been pretty limited. I think most people know my position that housing is still a little expensive compared to most metrics, but time will fix this. One thing that is also nice is that there is a lot of distressed inventory out there so it is fairly easy to find properties that are 10+% below comps so you are decently protected against modest moves.
Va_Investor said
I've never thought it crucial to catch the bottom. Timing is a fool's game.
I don't think anyone is trying to time the market. Jeremy hits at the dilemma most of us are facing yesterday when he said:
Here is the home that got me worked up about the WTF pricing yesterday:
FX7218481
Seriously, they paid 310k in 1998 and now want 829k.
I don't think Jeremy or I (or almost anyone here) claim to know what the bottom is for FX7218481 or the many, many homes like it. We know that the bottom will be something between $310k-829k. That is a HUGE range. We are not talking about mistiming it and only overpaying $40k. We are talking about potentially overpaying hundreds of thousands of dollars.
I don't care what any of you claim about how scared you were when you bought in 1981 or even 1993. There just has never before been potentially six digit volatility until these recent years.
Here is a point I've made before (and many others have made).
In the stock market a bottom may only last a day. Or a week.
In the housing market a bottom can last five years.
So what's the rush? Even if we hit bottom this year (doubtful) we are unlikely to see much upward movement until 2014 or so. Let's see a non-volatile Case-Shiller index. Let's see flat county assessments. That screams housing bottom.
Right now everything points to the market still being volatile and something to avoid.
a short-sale question...
so my *agent* thinks a short sale's listing price reflects money owed to the bank. i think not, i think it's the 'wishful' price the seller wants the bank to agree. who's right?
MM, if its an approved SS then that is what the bank thinks is fair market value and offering less than that they will either reject, counter or have the seller bring cash to closing. If it hasn't been approved, yet..then it just might be a sellers wishful thinking
MM-
Sellers often start out with the money that they owe the bank. After it doesn't sell they regularly bring is down fairly quickly. They do this so they can tell the bank that they tried their best to make the bank whole on the loan, but the house just isn't worth that much.
MM,
I concur with housebuyer. "Normally" it starts at the money owed, and then drifts down as the market silence proves to the bank that getting all their moeny back is not in the cards.
Although now that shorts are more common, some try the opposite tactic, list 20% under comps to generate an offer to take to the bank, such that the bank is forced to come up with a number they would approve, and then sell it to the first buyer if they're willing to meet the bank, or put it back active as an approved short sale.
If there's one you're particularly interested in I recommend running a CRA (press sold and active near the LA's name) on the agent. Assuming they've done shorts before, follow through to each listing's page to see the price history.
thanks all.
the one i'm interested in has been on for 50 days but no price drop yet. 'on paper (haven't seen it in person and not enough pix, but is occupied.), it's about 20% higher than comps, and perhaps as much as 30% higher than shorts comps.
my agent keeps pushing me away from shorts. it's starting to irritate me.
BTW the house we liked but has two incurables? pulled from MLS today. there goes my 'back-up' plan...
MM-
A lot of agents do not like to do short sales, because they take a very long time and have a much lower chance of making it to closing than a normal sale. (e.g. Cara and I both were under contract on a short and decided to bail after a couple of months). If you are really interested in it and your agent will not take it than I would just call up the agent listing the house. Agents always get very excited about the prospect of making both the buyers and sellers commission.
VA_Investor
For deals that pencil out, sure,
look last fall and this spring there
were TH's in Hoodbridge selling for 80K that had sold in the low 300's.
Those were screaming deals, you rent
them out, you get 750/month easy,
it's a nice little cash machine.
But, My Girl doesn't like the area and doesn't want to go hang out there while I fix a busted toilet or
deal with a tenant drama issue.
Then there are deals in SE DC, you
can get houses there for pennies,
but you have to go to the Hood to collect rent. Really, who wants to
be a slumlord?
Now the Fed Charts seem to show some minor percentage of IO loans and Option-Arms but, Metro DC was a bubble state, it didn't get as crazy as Florida or California but there was plenty of madness.
The Case-Shiller indexes match this.
Now is Bernanke trying tokeep the bubble up? sure.
But, every time you spot a listing at 40-50% down, it's a comp killer.
Every time i go to google maps and ask for a spatial map of foreclosures i see a ton of spots,
most of them werent' there 3 years ago, and many of which haven't been processed.
Now maybe investors are going in and in bulk buying, but that's just moving Res RE into Comm RE, and that's a zero-sum game.
CRE is sick, real sick, one of my buddies who has made a couple hundred million in real estate,
and used to Poo-Poo my concerns in 06 is now really freaked out. He says he's never seen it this bad.
He says he's lucky he has nothing coming due in 18 months, but, there is no capital to roll loans, the rates are decaying, vacancies are growing and that it's all "Extend and Pretend".
Even in Arlington Vacancies are starting to rise. That puts pressure on rates.
Now the 8K buyers bribe has had a good lever increasing prices about 30K over trend, but people are changing their behaviour. They are treating housing as an essential not an investment and they are no longer stretching hard.
Despite the FHA pouring in 97% financing, the deals pressure is not the madness we saw in 03-05.
Pat,
I don't see what your grasping at straws has to do with "Hoodbridge" or being a slumlord.
I truly don't care if you buy or not; it just seems that your reason for a continued/coming major retreat seems to change depending on the news du jour.
The Anon:
consider this property
http://franklymls.com/DC7051205
Sold for 400K 3 years ago, went
to foreclosure sold for 200K,
they were having trouble closing it,
the place went UC twice and they had
it listed for 249K.
50% down is a pretty good indication of the C-S index reverting to mean.
The places across the street are 3BR and went for 240K.
honestly i think these places will
float around the price should be middle 100's but with H Street becoming popular, they may find the
price in the low 200's.
pat-
I assume part of the reason there was trouble closing is the house was gutted. At least all of the appliances were taken who knows if anything else was taken. So saying that a house that was gutted is representative seems a little biased.
I think this example also is not particularly relevant, because virtually no one on this blog is willing to live in a neighborhood where safety is a big enough issue that everyone houses metal bars on their doors and windows.
Pat -- Regarding your response @ 4:01 PM -- thats all fine and good. Just recognize that it has nothing whatsoever to do with a "wave of IO and Option ARMs" which was the entire point of this discussion.
CRE is sick, real sick, one of my buddies who has made a couple hundred million in real estate,
and used to Poo-Poo my concerns in 06 is now really freaked out. He says he's never seen it this bad.
See pages 26-32.
Bulletproof. Not surprisingly, the country’s preeminent recession-proof market, Washington, D.C., regains the survey’s number-one ranking in all investment and development categories, except for industrial properties. The nation’s capital lacks a primary distribution center, but features all the other attributes investors want—plenty of government jobs that don’t get cut in slowdowns, high-tech and biotech industries that feed off government programs, a slew of area universities, and, most importantly, a diversified 24-hour center linked to other global capitals and national gateway cities by three major airports. No wonder it’s one of the few markets to register even a slight ratings gain over last year’s survey.
He says he's lucky he has nothing coming due in 18 months, but, there is no capital to roll loans, the rates are decaying, vacancies are growing and that it's all "Extend and Pretend".
Even in Arlington Vacancies are starting to rise. That puts pressure on rates.
While many metropolitan markets around the country are enduring steep increases in vacancies in their office and retail sectors, the Rosslyn-Ballston corridor in the Northern Virginia suburbs of Washington is an oasis of stability — and even of prosperity.
Link
Now the 8K buyers bribe has had a good lever increasing prices about 30K over trend, but people are changing their behaviour. They are treating housing as an essential not an investment and they are no longer stretching hard.
They're still stretching, but the financing isn't there. Self-employed and those with variable incomes are locked out. Look for credit to ease in 2010, allowing a segment of borrowers back in the market.
Robert and others,
I agree CRE is bad, bad, bad. Lender's are reducing loan amounts and rates, unlike residential. They are not foreclosing because they would have to book the losses. I know of people/companies that can't service the debt and have not been making payments for months. It's kind-of a mexican stand-off.
Venture/vulture funds are raising cash. There was an Article (Post or Wall Street about this a couple days ago).
We saw this a few years ago with RE. It's the worst people have seen in 30 yrs; which of course means deals are on the horizon.
Cara My husband had always wanted to look for a single family house but I was the one who listened to colleagues and thought a townhouse would be better for 5 years and then we would buy a "real" house. Our experience living in a rental townhouse taught us that the actual 4 walls were important but the neighborhood was also important. I don't know while suburban townhouses feel so isolated but it wasn't for us. We are happy with our fixer upper and can even expand it if we think we need a bigger house as our children grow or we add to the family.
Tired Bubble Watcher My comment about Costco was a little tongue-in-cheek. We actually go to Target much more and there are several good Targets in the area. I would not be surprised if the Costco site is re-developed as it is a primo piece of land and very underutilized.
waiting too,
It may take 5 or 10+ yrs, but any one level shopping centers or box stores in good locales are going the way of the dinosaur.
Reston Town Center is on hold, but those "plaza's" are history.
p.s. many people are quite happy in TH's.
Guys
I looked at the house i cited, now
i could only look from the windows,
the listing agent was far too lazy to
come down and show it, but,
it wasn't in bad shape.
it needed a fridge and a stove
but that's not bad.
and do try and remember, that place had bars on it when it sold for 400K
so if you think a missing stove knocks 200K off a property, well,
what can I say.
Now I like that area, so does my Girl, we are both city people, so its not a big deal.
It's just when I point out there are properties that have dropped 50%
and that makes all sorts of other people underwater, all of a sudden I get accused of "Straw Bailing".
he C-S index for DC has over the long term been at 100, and that will lead to a long series of depressed prices or a sharp fall and then a return to trend growth.
Right now FHA is printing money like crazy, so is Ginnie Mae,
but the hand is much weaker now then it was in 2005.
Pat-
Clearly the appliances are not why it is down 50%. I think everyone on here admits that there was a correction in the DC area probably ~30% and distressed inventory sells for less than regular so its not that surprising to see the house sold for 200K.
People are going to continue to be underwater for probably 10 years so if you really want to wait until people are not underwater goodluck. Finally you keep saying that DC has historically been at 100 on the CS index. Do you have any justification for this? The CS that is by city is not adjusted for inflation, and in that one DC was only around 100 in the year 2000.
The inflation adjusted one is a national index. Plus if it stays at 100 adjusted for inflation that means houses are going up a couple of percent every year.
Cara,
We have seen many houses that would be perfect for us - perfect house, in terms of size, newness, price, and condition - but they're too far west. I think my husband will go as west as we are now, but no further west than that (where there are even less expensive homes).
We looked at an REO that we could practically walk to last night. While there didn't appear to be massive destruction, there were hints of anger from the last home owner. A shower stall tile missing here, a bathroom floor tile smashed there, a kitchen cabinet that was pulling away from the wall. The heat was on, it sounded like a low roar, in a house only ten years old. So, we passed on that one as well.
Last weekend, we also went to see the townhouse on Greg Roy Lane in Herndon that I had watched under contract for months and months. (It's in a district with a problematic elementary school, but I thought, with the school not making AYP, I could send my daughter to another school....) The townhouse, now foreclosed, was in almost perfect condition. It was big (for a townhouse) and elegant. We would have to spend almost the maximum budgeted amount, the amount we're willing to spend for a house, and we only get a townhouse. My husband thought the basement was too small.
People swarmed to it like bees. We saw the inside on Saturday, where there were other potential buyers (talking to the listing agent! ahem!) and when we drove by on Sunday, we saw a car from Georgia there, then another set of potential buyers after that. By Tuesday, it was off the market.
So, at his price range, he thinks he should be able to get a nice newer, big house (3500 sq ft) with a better commute.
I think what sums up our problem best is Frankl LLosa's "Do Miracle Deals Exist" Article. Our moving plan is counterintuitive. A bigger house, closer in. Everyone else does the opposite, because it's all they can do. We may not move.
REdealSEEKER,
It is a tough time to find a good/great deal. Cash is king right now. If you agree with some here, prices will go lower. I'm in the camp that believes we will see stagnation ala 90's. Interest rates are the only wild card that I see going forward in my mind (absent some huge financial crisis).
I was fortunate because my husband would usually agree with my decision. In our 20's, we had a lot of fun looking! I always have my eye out because that is what I enjoy. It no longer takes the arm twisting that it used to as my husband trusts my judgment. I figure out/arrange the financing and he pays little attention. He's been to one closing in the past 15 yrs - and that was only because he was getting a "dream come true" for him.
I've seen homes in Potomac Falls that seem quite reasonable. I am of the opinion that this spring will be a "hot" market.
Banks giving away property at the Courthouse is a bad sign for most of the buying public. I don't know what to tell you; lower your standards or hope the right deal comes your way.
You can rent for 5 yrs, as some year are willing to do, or you can have a home and be 5yrs down the amortization schedule (and whatever intrinsic benefits come with having your own home).
If you put out your desired zips/schools, perhaps some here could point out some deals. Your recent experience has to be depressing.
I've started following the Courthouse sales as I hear that there is where the deals are.
"Pat said...
(T)he C-S index for DC has over the long term been at 100"
Pat -- once again, that is just flat out WRONG.
As Housebuyer correctly points out (and as many others have correctly pointed out to you in the past) the inflation adjusted CS index may be close to 100, however the nominal index is not.
Look at Harriet's CS entry on Nov 24. CS was pegged to measure change over time, so it was pegged at 100 in Jan 2000.
Every month prior to that it was somewhere below 100. Look at 1987 when CS was in the 60s. By your reasoning (i.e. always at 100) the late 1980s must have been a historic crash in housing. However, it was not, it was the 2nd biggest bubble to the one we had recently.
So again, the CS reported here and elsewhere is a NOMINAL number. Absent Contrarian style deflation, the govt moving to ohio, or some other similar catastrophe, the CS index will NEVER HIT 100 AGAIN -- EVER.
Sorry to beat on you -- but its annoying how we sometimes see (a) someone state something that is patently false, receive correction, and yet repeat the patently false statement at a later date.
If you missed where we pointed this out to you before -- fair enough. If you just forgot -- fair enough. However, just simply repeating a false statement will not make it any less false the 2nd time around.
Va Investor,
I really enjoy looking too, but I suppose too much of anything can be tiresome, as much as you love it.
We've looked in Potomac Falls, and came to the conclusion that we'd prefer the schools on the Western side of Sterling (Riverbend & Potomac Falls), would not want to send our children to Seneca Ridge (Eastern side of Sterling), where many of the nicer, newer houses are. Does anyone have any experience with Seneca Ridge Middle School? Any different perspective on that? We won't get near Park View HS.
Ashburn is good, generally. The prices are a problem. We orginally thought we'd stay north of the tollroad (20147), but we've just decided that the commute from the Eastern portion of Brambleton (20148) might not be so bad. I think Brambleton might be a positive move in terms of getting closer to the future metro, the end point planned for the intersection of the tollroad and Ryan Road. Brambleton's other plus is that the homes are really new (although, the benefits of newer construction may eventually be canceled by the shoddiness of boom era construction.) The negative is that, the expensive of taking the tollroad from Brambleton to Herndon everyday would become exorbitant.
We'd like to live in a newer house in Herndon, but the newer houses seem way too expensive. Even if prices float downward, I don't know if a 600k house will come down to 500k. Although, that lovely (Great Oak neighborhood) townhouse we saw sold in 2007 for 605k. Today, the houses in that neighborhood sell for around 600k, the cheapest having sold for 560k. We'd prefer Herndon south of the tollroad (20171), but we're willing to consider the northern portion as well (20170), as long as the neighborhood isn't crime-ridden, and the elementary school isn't the absolute worst (but then again, I'll probably have that transfer option). There was this (great deal with significant price drops, but then the crime report made a brisk walk through the neighborhood seem dangerous, so we passed.
We've looked at a townhouse in Tysons (Hahn Properties, 22812), at the top of our price range, and the least expensive one to appear in that neighborhood. However, we crossed that off our list as soon as we saw it. Small, barely had a driveway, and tight. Very classical looking architecture, though. It felt like Georgetown, and not 1988, the year it was built.
So, I certainly would not mind suggestions....but I'm thinking I've already thoroughly scoured redfin and franklymls.com. I'd love to be proven wrong about having seen just about "everything" everyday for these past nine months.
VA_Inv
I haven't seen harriets post of 11/24
it's hard to track posts
and that was before thanksgiving, when
we were otherwise occupied.
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