Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.Oh, and have a happy Thanksgiving!
More on Ace's lead on how to milk data from Frankly.Several surprises:Only 52 places sold in 22305 in the last 4 years, if I'm reading Frankly correctly.Most were "As-is" or "Short Sales".The median priced place was 211 Tennessee at $278K. Looks like a lot of units were pulled off the market and not sold.
Using Ace's technique w/ Frankly, here are the last 4 years of Solds in 22305/Immundria.Pat asked for an assessment and I flat don't know what to make of the data.Couple shockers for me. Mostly dirt cheap, As-Is, short-sales sold in the last 4 years. SFH, OK street, have not sold. Were they pulled off the market and are they now "hidden inventory"? The "sold" prices are much lower than I expected. These are not reflected in the city's assessments. I'm eagerly awaiting the report that Immundria produces about February.Of the 52 places sold, only 5 cleared for above a half mill. On the other hand, is there a problem w/ Frankly. This place, 3108 Circle Hill Rd. does not show up in the sold list. 1 $118,340(7/09) 207 GLEBE RD E #207B2 $130,000(12/08) 710 FOUR MILE RD3 $141,000(9/08) 3735 MARK DR4 $140,553(5/09) 320 ASHBY ST #320A5 $147,000(4/09) 23 REED AVE6 $152,000(10/08) 3755 MARK DR7 $157,000(5/09) 19 REED AVE8 $169,900(12/08) 104 REED AVE9 $162,850(4/09) 57 DALE ST10 $170,900(5/08) 3307 COMMONWEALTH AVE #3307D11 $178,000(3/09) 3008 MANNING ST12 $175,085(7/08) 53 DALE ST13 $190,000(11/08) 239 EVANS LN14 $198,260(3/09) 153 WESMOND DR15 $215,000(8/08) 3739 MARK DR16 $220,000(11/09) 3601 EDISON ST17 $225,000(1/08) 3710 EDISON ST18 $240,000(11/07) 638 FOUR MILE RD19 $237,650(12/08) 3102 MONTROSE AVE20 $250,000(9/06) 50 REED AVE21 $250,000(5/07) 156 LYNNHAVEN DR22 $245,000(7/08) 225 LYNNHAVEN DR23 $252,200(5/08) 20 REED AVE24 $260,000(7/08) 312 WESMOND DR25 $261,900(8/09) 130 GLEBE RD26 $278,875(2/09) 211 TENNESSEE AVE27 $296,000(10/07) 411 LAVERNE AVE28 $301,000(9/06) 19 REED AVE E29 $303,245(11/08) 228 TENNESSEE AVE30 $320,000(3/09) 204 CLIFFORD AVE31 $340,000(7/06) 158 WESMOND DR32 $335,000(9/07) 217 WESMOND DR33 $342,925(7/09) 2902 SYCAMORE ST34 $351,450(3/06) 152 WESMOND DR35 $350,000(4/06) 713 FOUR MILE RD36 $362,600(8/08) 3838 BRIGHTON CT37 $361,000(10/07) 134 GLEBE RD38 $371,510(1/07) 3701 EDISON ST39 $394,044(9/08) 3841 ELBERT AVE40 $395,000(8/07) 119 CLIFFORD AVE41 $400,000(8/06) 206 CLIFFORD AVE42 $400,000(9/06) 29 REED AVE43 $410,000(3/06) 162 WESMOND DR44 $464,000(2/06) 226 GLEBE RD W45 $464,000(2/06) 228 GLEBE RD W46 $461,100(3/07) 2719 HEMLOCK AVE47 $475,000(8/06) 3100 CIRCLE HILL RD48 $517,500(12/06) 3100 CIRCLE HILL RD49 $553,313(10/09) 509 MONTICELLO BLVD50 $590,000(6/09) 213 LAVERNE AVE51 $682,000(12/08) 3317 OLD DOMINION BLVD52 $743,000(2/07) 2708 MOSBY ST
@Jthatss my problem i cant make sense of the dataanywhereno clear trends lots of evidence of shadow inventory,prices everywwheretells me it is a market of air not substance
Here's 3108 Circle HillYou have something wrong with your query. Last 4 years in 22305 shows 691 results. I do see one listing in Gaithersburg, but that's because the house address is 22305.Here is 22305 sold in 2009. 151 results.Your query puts the word "sold" in the "Search for" field. I think that's filtering your results based on the word "sold" showing up in the listing but not the status.Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
Thanks Hog!That's better but it's still strange. The $250K, $500K, $750K, and $1M distribution aren't what I expected.The realized prices are much, much more biased toward the low end.
@J@What it's saying is that like anywhere, the distress and the turnover are both concentrated in the low end. It's also pointing to a steep rise in median sold price once the fear leaves the market and higher end stuff starts moving _even if_ that higher end stuff has to drop their prices to find buyers.It's all about the mix. That's why we like the Case-Schiller numbers because the mix is somewhat taken out there, and views from the ground of people targeting specific price points, or looking for certain house types.
I agree, Cara. It's almost as if there are two or more mini-markets within the same zip - the market for the distressed low end properties, and the market for the higher end stuff. Happy Thanksgiving to all!
@J@, interesting that you know of a lot of units pulled off the market and unsold. I think that's going on in other neighborhoods as well. I wish someone were tracking all of these.
Yeah Cara,Looking closer at Hog's data, the low end of the market churned. Fewer places were listed and sold at the higher levels. At any instant in time, there was an "even" distribution of places for sale. The distribution of places sold was far from even. Many more places sold at the low end.Within each band or category, E. Reed St., Warwick TH's, small SFH, large SFH, etc, the prices held up or the places were pulled off the market. There are exceptions, 211 Tennessee (Warwick) at $278K sold at a deep discount from the more typical $400K-$450K. Someone got a nice deal on that one.Ace, I don't know how to track pulled for-sales post fact. What happens is that I'll notice a place for sale down the street, then the sign comes down and it never shows up as "Sold". Maybe if asked, Frankly will add that as a feature.
@J@, yes, I do that too. I suppose that someone with a lot of time available could track them with Frankly by comparing listings each week (?) with eventual "solds" that he posts and identifying those that never appear in his "solds." I would guess that he might be able to program his software to do that, whic would be a better solution.
Ace, here's my 22305-Warwick raw data from a few years ago.I typed the "for sales" details including addresses, into a spread sheet, took totals, etc.I kinda wish I had kept up with this but the raw data might be in Frankly. date, units, average asking price. 10-Oct-05 10 $472K oct 16 2005 9 $464K 22-Oct-05 10 $465K Oct 30 2005 12 $461K 2-Nov-05 12 $460K 2-Nov-05 12 $462K 6-Nov-05 14 $459K 10-Nov-05 14 $460K 14-Nov-05 13 $458K 20-Nov-05 15 $461K Nov 26 2005 12 $459K 1-Dec-05 13 $451K 6-Dec-05 9 $460K 16-Dec-05 8 $464K 20-Dec-05 9 $459K 23-Dec-05 5 $458K Dec 29 2005 4 $467K Jan 6 2006 4 $464K 11-Jan-06 4 $464K 24-Jan-06 5 $450K 27-Jan-06 4 $448K 13-Feb-06 3 $439K 24-Feb-06 3 $464K 4-Mar-06 6 $472K 7-Mar-06 8 $475K 21-Mar-06 11 $472K 25-Mar-06 12 $467K 12-Apr-06 11 $467K 21-Apr-06 9 $468K 26-Apr-06 11 $466K 7-May-06 12 $469K 19-May-06 13 $464K 25-May-06 13 $463K June 3 2006 15 $461K 21-Jun-06 15 $456K 25-Jun-06 17 $452K 25-Jul-06 18 $447K 5-Aug-06 16 $448K 20-Sep-06 12 $430K 25-Oct-06 10 $422K 15-Nov-06 9 $429K 24-Nov-06 9 $427K 29-Dec-06 8 $433K About November, places are pulled from the market. They show up again in April.The highest asking prices are in the early spring, then as time progresses, the prices drift down.Warwick's asking prices in 2005/2006 were slightly higher than now. Frankly shows 2 for sale now, at $445K, and $439K. The available units are way down from the 2005/2006 peak.
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