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Thursday, November 26, 2009
Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 11/26/2009
Posted by Harriet at 6:00 AM
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11 comments:
More on Ace's lead on how to milk data from Frankly.
Several surprises:
Only 52 places sold in 22305 in the last 4 years, if I'm reading Frankly correctly.
Most were "As-is" or "Short Sales".
The median priced place was 211 Tennessee at $278K.
Looks like a lot of units were pulled off the market and not sold.
Using Ace's technique w/ Frankly, here are the last 4 years of Solds in 22305/Immundria.
Pat asked for an assessment and I flat don't know what to make of the data.
Couple shockers for me. Mostly dirt cheap, As-Is, short-sales sold in the last 4 years.
SFH, OK street, have not sold. Were they pulled off the market and are they now "hidden inventory"?
The "sold" prices are much lower than I expected. These are not reflected in the city's assessments. I'm eagerly awaiting the report that Immundria produces about February.
Of the 52 places sold, only 5 cleared for above a half mill.
On the other hand, is there a problem w/ Frankly. This place, 3108 Circle Hill Rd. does not show up in the sold list.
1 $118,340(7/09) 207 GLEBE RD E #207B
2 $130,000(12/08) 710 FOUR MILE RD
3 $141,000(9/08) 3735 MARK DR
4 $140,553(5/09) 320 ASHBY ST #320A
5 $147,000(4/09) 23 REED AVE
6 $152,000(10/08) 3755 MARK DR
7 $157,000(5/09) 19 REED AVE
8 $169,900(12/08) 104 REED AVE
9 $162,850(4/09) 57 DALE ST
10 $170,900(5/08) 3307 COMMONWEALTH AVE #3307D
11 $178,000(3/09) 3008 MANNING ST
12 $175,085(7/08) 53 DALE ST
13 $190,000(11/08) 239 EVANS LN
14 $198,260(3/09) 153 WESMOND DR
15 $215,000(8/08) 3739 MARK DR
16 $220,000(11/09) 3601 EDISON ST
17 $225,000(1/08) 3710 EDISON ST
18 $240,000(11/07) 638 FOUR MILE RD
19 $237,650(12/08) 3102 MONTROSE AVE
20 $250,000(9/06) 50 REED AVE
21 $250,000(5/07) 156 LYNNHAVEN DR
22 $245,000(7/08) 225 LYNNHAVEN DR
23 $252,200(5/08) 20 REED AVE
24 $260,000(7/08) 312 WESMOND DR
25 $261,900(8/09) 130 GLEBE RD
26 $278,875(2/09) 211 TENNESSEE AVE
27 $296,000(10/07) 411 LAVERNE AVE
28 $301,000(9/06) 19 REED AVE E
29 $303,245(11/08) 228 TENNESSEE AVE
30 $320,000(3/09) 204 CLIFFORD AVE
31 $340,000(7/06) 158 WESMOND DR
32 $335,000(9/07) 217 WESMOND DR
33 $342,925(7/09) 2902 SYCAMORE ST
34 $351,450(3/06) 152 WESMOND DR
35 $350,000(4/06) 713 FOUR MILE RD
36 $362,600(8/08) 3838 BRIGHTON CT
37 $361,000(10/07) 134 GLEBE RD
38 $371,510(1/07) 3701 EDISON ST
39 $394,044(9/08) 3841 ELBERT AVE
40 $395,000(8/07) 119 CLIFFORD AVE
41 $400,000(8/06) 206 CLIFFORD AVE
42 $400,000(9/06) 29 REED AVE
43 $410,000(3/06) 162 WESMOND DR
44 $464,000(2/06) 226 GLEBE RD W
45 $464,000(2/06) 228 GLEBE RD W
46 $461,100(3/07) 2719 HEMLOCK AVE
47 $475,000(8/06) 3100 CIRCLE HILL RD
48 $517,500(12/06) 3100 CIRCLE HILL RD
49 $553,313(10/09) 509 MONTICELLO BLVD
50 $590,000(6/09) 213 LAVERNE AVE
51 $682,000(12/08) 3317 OLD DOMINION BLVD
52 $743,000(2/07) 2708 MOSBY ST
@J
thatss my problem i cant make sense of the data
anywhere
no clear trends lots of evidence of shadow inventory,
prices everywwhere
tells me it is a market of air not substance
Here's 3108 Circle Hill
You have something wrong with your query. Last 4 years in 22305 shows 691 results. I do see one listing in Gaithersburg, but that's because the house address is 22305.
Here is 22305 sold in 2009. 151 results.
Your query puts the word "sold" in the "Search for" field. I think that's filtering your results based on the word "sold" showing up in the listing but not the status.
Happy Thanksgiving everyone.
Thanks Hog!
That's better but it's still strange. The $250K, $500K, $750K, and $1M distribution aren't what I expected.
The realized prices are much, much more biased toward the low end.
@J@
What it's saying is that like anywhere, the distress and the turnover are both concentrated in the low end.
It's also pointing to a steep rise in median sold price once the fear leaves the market and higher end stuff starts moving _even if_ that higher end stuff has to drop their prices to find buyers.
It's all about the mix. That's why we like the Case-Schiller numbers because the mix is somewhat taken out there, and views from the ground of people targeting specific price points, or looking for certain house types.
I agree, Cara. It's almost as if there are two or more mini-markets within the same zip - the market for the distressed low end properties, and the market for the higher end stuff.
Happy Thanksgiving to all!
@J@, interesting that you know of a lot of units pulled off the market and unsold. I think that's going on in other neighborhoods as well. I wish someone were tracking all of these.
Yeah Cara,
Looking closer at Hog's data, the low end of the market churned. Fewer places were listed and sold at the higher levels.
At any instant in time, there was an "even" distribution of places for sale.
The distribution of places sold was far from even. Many more places sold at the low end.
Within each band or category, E. Reed St., Warwick TH's, small SFH, large SFH, etc, the prices held up or the places were pulled off the market.
There are exceptions, 211 Tennessee (Warwick) at $278K sold at a deep discount from the more typical $400K-$450K. Someone got a nice deal on that one.
Ace, I don't know how to track pulled for-sales post fact. What happens is that I'll notice a place for sale down the street, then the sign comes down and it never shows up as "Sold".
Maybe if asked, Frankly will add that as a feature.
@J@, yes, I do that too. I suppose that someone with a lot of time available could track them with Frankly by comparing listings each week (?) with eventual "solds" that he posts and identifying those that never appear in his "solds." I would guess that he might be able to program his software to do that, whic would be a better solution.
Ace, here's my 22305-Warwick raw data from a few years ago.
I typed the "for sales" details including addresses, into a spread sheet, took totals, etc.
I kinda wish I had kept up with this but the raw data might be in Frankly.
date, units, average asking price.
10-Oct-05 10 $472K
oct 16 2005 9 $464K
22-Oct-05 10 $465K
Oct 30 2005 12 $461K
2-Nov-05 12 $460K
2-Nov-05 12 $462K
6-Nov-05 14 $459K
10-Nov-05 14 $460K
14-Nov-05 13 $458K
20-Nov-05 15 $461K
Nov 26 2005 12 $459K
1-Dec-05 13 $451K
6-Dec-05 9 $460K
16-Dec-05 8 $464K
20-Dec-05 9 $459K
23-Dec-05 5 $458K
Dec 29 2005 4 $467K
Jan 6 2006 4 $464K
11-Jan-06 4 $464K
24-Jan-06 5 $450K
27-Jan-06 4 $448K
13-Feb-06 3 $439K
24-Feb-06 3 $464K
4-Mar-06 6 $472K
7-Mar-06 8 $475K
21-Mar-06 11 $472K
25-Mar-06 12 $467K
12-Apr-06 11 $467K
21-Apr-06 9 $468K
26-Apr-06 11 $466K
7-May-06 12 $469K
19-May-06 13 $464K
25-May-06 13 $463K
June 3 2006 15 $461K
21-Jun-06 15 $456K
25-Jun-06 17 $452K
25-Jul-06 18 $447K
5-Aug-06 16 $448K
20-Sep-06 12 $430K
25-Oct-06 10 $422K
15-Nov-06 9 $429K
24-Nov-06 9 $427K
29-Dec-06 8 $433K
About November, places are pulled from the market. They show up again in April.
The highest asking prices are in the early spring, then as time progresses, the prices drift down.
Warwick's asking prices in 2005/2006 were slightly higher than now.
Frankly shows 2 for sale now, at $445K, and $439K.
The available units are way down from the 2005/2006 peak.
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