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Tuesday, November 10, 2009
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30 comments:
Hey Cara (and anyone else with kids):
http://disney.go.com/disneyvideos/animatedfilms/up/couponoffer/
http://www.birdseyevoilapaper.com/blankform.html
http://pastaandamovie.com/rebate.cfm
Okay so that wasn't related to real estate at all but it will sure make the kids happy.
on that note a housing crash Dilbert while we await the MRIS releasing the October sales data.
It's out.
Burke's about what I thought average sale price randomly almost exactly flat YoY, median up only 4% YoY, # sales up 37% YoY, and most tellingly, Avg sale price as a percentage of list price was a whopping 97.3%! Holy $8k batman.
Inventory is essentially flat as more new listings came on then new contracts or pendings.
A lot of the marginal stuff I've taken a look at that we thought was way overpriced has gone uinder contract lately. No way to tell if that's seller's capitulating to "low-ball" (but totally reasonable w.r.t comps) bids or buyers giving up on ever seeing anything better hit the market. I assume it's some of each, some lucky sellers and some lucky buyers.
Burke continues its trend of being hotter than FFX Cnty as a whole. FFX cnty sales #'s were only up 6%, prices were statistically flat YoY (up well under 1%), and close price was 94% of list which is still remarkably good for October, but not the impressive 97.3%.
Calculated Risk
mortgage insurers in trouble, hoocoodanode?
It'll be interesting to see how this plays out. Certainly it means more losses for MBS holders, that won't be absorbed by the insurance, but beyond that? Has the purchase market already fully bifurcated into 20% down or FHA/VA? Or does MI still have significant market share such that fewer writers would have an impact on demand? If so, would FHA/ginnie mae step up to fill the void? How much more insurance can FHA write? Would more market share for FHA actually help it?
It would be really helpful at this point to see a 2009 breakout of GSE conforming purchase loans by LTV.
could this be it? the end of the wait and the search? when a listing lacks any picture it actually allows me to dream up thousands of possibilities, haha...
Does anyone know of any data on how long the average person stays in a house historically? I am curious if there is any data that says that during the bubble people switched houses very quickly, but before the bubble people used to live in a house XX years, so without a future bubble we can expect people to stay in a house this long?
MM,
From the description it could very well be. Or they could be on acid. No way to know, gotta go see it. Is it really on that busy corner?
housebuyer,
Last time we looked at this it was all comments from within articles, not charts persay. I would google for articles by Case or Schiller for something like this.
MM, I've learned that when:
1) there is no mention of recent updates, such as "new kitchen", in the description and
2) the house is in N. Arl. and is being offered at around 2009 assessed value
it is usually a serious handyman/woman special. It may or may not have other flaws.
You can at least find out the size of the place and lot and whether it has a garage and AC on the Arl. site.
There will probably be photos added soon, since it's only been on the mkt. one day.
Cara,
Yes I'm very certain it's at the corner. However the bigger concern/flaw in terms of traffic is the proximity to 66.
Ace,
No doubt in my mind it needs (major?) update but I'm fine with that. In fact I'd rather a unfinished basement. It has carport no garage. Listing says 1800 interior sq. which is adequate short-to-mid term. Though the lot is too small for addition. Again I think the major incurable is 66 hence the asking prices.
MM, that's good, but I just mean that you'll have to add on the cost and hassle factor of a major reno. So it may not be such a great "deal." One more red flag - when you see "TR" (trustee) next to the owner's name, it often means they inherited the place from parents, so it may look like granny's house.
The listings always count basement square footage if the owner considers it "finished" and there's no audit of the #s that the owners report - I once saw a house where the owner was counting the garage as "finished square feet"! Arlington does not. It counts above ground finished square footage for the living area, using the same metrics for everyone (except that for split levels and bi-levels I think it counts the lower level space, which you may not count the same way). So in some ways it is easier to compare apples to apples to use the Arl. assessment. I'm not trying to rain on your parade and I do hope it turns out to be a gem; it just doesn't look clearly to be a great buy from the little info that we have.
Ace,
BTW, this N Arl "Fantastic Renovated and Remodeled all brick Colonial" sold at 90% of 09 assessed value. Not disagreeing with what you said but I was scratching my head when I saw the sold price. But like you said before no basement in N Arl is a major problem.
MM said...
"could this be it? the end of the wait and the search? when a listing lacks any picture it actually allows me to dream up thousands of possibilities, haha..."
I just looked at the same house and thought the same thing! Inventory is pretty low these days.
If you look at redfin's listing, scroll to the bottom of the page, and click on "Street View" above the map, you can see the front and sides of the house.
http://www.redfin.com/VA/Arlington/1014-N-Madison-St-22205/home/11240645
It's too close to 66 for me personally.
MM, yes, I think that 2nd one was/is a pretty good deal too. In addition to what you said (basement) Old Dominion is a major street, isn't it? and the exterior style of the house may not be appealing these days.
(not to beat a dead horse - I'm not saying that renovation guarantees above asking; I'm just speculating about why the house you linked appears to be cheap, based on other houses - owners and their agents usually like to include mention of costly upgrades if they have been done.)
(in the 2nd paragraph of my post above, I was referring to the first house MM posted, that had no photos)
i'm tired of renting.
i was just informed that the rental home could be put on the market soon. will be getting the official 30-day notice.
(for those of you don't know, 2 years ago we're chased out of a foreclosed rental apt.)
i need a drink.
MM that sucks I'm sorry. Are they kicking you out or can you stay as long as it is on the market?
MM, I'm sorry too. Very unfair that this has happened twice in two years to you.
VA_Investor asked
If your career was in Tyson's, why would you consider those other far-flung areas? Stick within a 5 mile radius of work. It's easily doable if you work in Tyson's.
I disagree that the areas I mentioned are "far-flung." Most are a 30-40 minute drive to Tysons. I don't consider that far flung. I don't need to break the bank to live 10 minutes from work.
I'm probably going to be looking at a 45-60 minute commute once I move to Vienna (part of why I don't really mind so much if it takes us a while to bottom because I get to rent closer-in during the mean time.) Of course that's offset by most of it being on a train and I can read which makes it easier than a 45-60 drive. So I don't see why I would fear living somewhere a 30 minute drive to Tysons. Particularly given how much money I can save.
Remember that many people like me who work in DC find it hard to live west of central Fairfax County because the commute is bad enough from there. If I worked in Tysons I don't see any reason to compete with those people for housing.
housebuyer,
Not sure if this matters for why you are curious about mobility rates but I'd certainly like to see it broken down between people who moved within the DC and those that moved out of it.
I think if you look at people who lived in the DC metro area between ages 30-60 during the pre-bubble period that the vast, vast, vast majority of people will have owned 1-2 houses with a plurality having owned one house. Those that got the second house will have (a) gotten a big promotion or inheritance that provided the means for a move-up home or (b) had a divorce and so at least one spouse (often the breadwinner) gets a new home.
Has anyone ever seen this before in the real estate records, "name withheld by request"?
http://icare.fairfaxcounty.gov/Forms/Datalets.aspx?mode=sales&taxyear=2010&ownseq=1&roll=REAL&jur=&sIndex=0&idx=1&LMparent=138
and MM, that sucks big time :(. Maybe you can make it worth your while-like telling your landlord you will make the sale go easy if he pays you some convenience money, or something ???
Well TBW, I lived in Burke near the Wal-Mart and can tell you that my commute to Tysons was always over 30 minutes, usually 45 and sometimes an hour. The inner loop of 495 gets really backed up, especially now with the HOT lane construction - and I'm betting it would take an hour consistently right now to make that drive (getting to destination 9am and 6:30pm).
P.S. Since my wife and I both work in/near Tysons we save almost as much in gas as the difference in rent we pay to live here. We keep different work hours and don't carpool. What little difference there is left over in price is well worth the sanity saved not sitting in traffic every day.
Meshell, I have frequently seen that in FFX Co. records, but not in Arlington Co. records. I don't know how one qualifies to keep things private, but I would certainly request that if Arl. let us.
interesting, thanks
Jeremy,
Did you ever try roads other than 495? I'm sure all routes take more than 30 minutes, not denying that. But I think avoiding 495 might avoid hour long nightmares because of some crash.
Looking at the map I see a lot of different ways to try. Up Guinea Road to short distance on Little River Turnpike up Prosperity Avenue, take 29 or 50 (try both ways) to Gallows Road, Gallows Road to Tysons Corner.
Or maybe Roberts Parkway to Roberts Road to Main Street to Pickett Road to 29 or 50 to Gallows Road to Tysons Corner.
Mix and match until you find a good design. You have to be creative.
During non-peak hours of course take the Beltway.
TBW-
I used to go from Fairfax Station to Tysons, so I have done almost all of the routes that you talked about. They are all generally pretty slow and if there is a bad accident on 495 then they all become terrible.
housebuyer,
What did they run on average? 45 minutes?
There's plenty of congestion on the routes from the Fox Mill/Oakton area I think Jeremy is looking at as well. Taking Lawyers Road or Vale Road is not a fun task. Nor is taking the Dulles Toll Road -- join everyone from Loudoun County.
Burke/Fairfax Station/West Springfield would not be such a nice place to live if there were not a lot of professional/white collar workers living there. Clearly a lot of people find the commutes doable.
Also plenty of people can get to work before 9 AM. Arriving at 8 or 8:30 can make a major difference.
Of course, since few young people want to wake up that early it makes sense for many in that age group to rent and live closer to work. But this just goes into my theme of why people who are relatively young (24-28) have different home buying thoughts than those who are in the median first time homebuyer age of 33.
TBW-
I think the median commute was 45 minutes, but the mean was probably a little longer. Basically it was never faster than 40 minutes but it was close to an hour about once a week.
I only know about the morning commute, because I left work after rush hour was done. You are correct that a lot of people have fairly long commutes there. I think most of them accept the commute so they can get a nice home for their family, a good sized lot, good schools, and great neighborhoods. For this reason there were almost no families without kids that lived there.
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