Wednesday, November 4, 2009

Current Housing Inventory

As we head into the quiet months of November through the end of January, total housing inventory in Northern Virginia is at its lowest point since June-July, 2005. The big question is what's in store for the Spring selling season (which tends to get an early start after the Super Bowl).

Also from Virginia MLS is a roller-coaster-looking graph of the percent of active homes that are available.

The total "Northern Virginia Inventory" represents the combined housing inventory (listed on the MLS) of Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County.



(Here's the spreadsheet on a separate page).

6 comments:

Va_Investor said...

The graph appears to show a leveling off. Inventory is still crazy low. I still haven't gotten a definitive answer on whether UC Shorts are counted as available. I've seen a ton come up as available when they have been UC for quite some time.

I got final approval on a short today that has shown "available" since April (when I signed the K) - and still does!

spunky said...

"As we head into the quiet months of November through the end of January"

IMO, this is the Prime season for Buyers

While inventory is low, you must also realize that only the motivated (desperate) are on the market during the Holidays - and the empty ones someone has to heat & keep the pipes from freezing.

Just this morning I saw a home I've been watching for 100 days list "Bring all offers".


Find a Seller that has some Equity & go get yer deal

I fear Spring will be a repeat of last year and now another tax credit deadline to make eveyone scrambble

Robert said...

VA_Investor -

Maybe this will help with your UC shorts question.

Short (pun) answer is that, 'yes', UC Shorts show as active/available.

We've had numerous posters complain that they've ventured out to look at properties that later turned out to be UC/unavailable. The recommendation is ALWAYS to call first and not rely on the MRIS.

Cara said...

Robert,
No, this is the Virginia MLS one which only counts actives. The MRIS one counts all inventory active or not. So this one has the problem of shorts that really are UC not being properly listed as such, but I still say that problem is way overblown. There are only half a dozen shorts that aren't under contract where I'm looking, so how much of an effect could it possibly be? Yes it happens, but in places where shorts aren't common it's negligible, and in places where shorts are common, the vast majority of shorts are listed as UC so that only leaves whatever fraction of remaining shorts are mis-labeled. It's in the noise.

Or rather, find me a zip or two in frankly for which more than 30% of "active" listings are shorts, and then I'll worry about it.

Va_Investor said...

Cara,

You are correct. From the Article that Robert linked, there was a rule change in May '09. So it can depend on the search method. I talked to an experieced reo/short lister yesterday who told me that there has been a huge crack-down.

Banks used to require that shorts remain "active", but they can't do it anymore. We should see other listing data reflect UC soon.

Cara said...

Va_investor,

Ah, rule change, that explains a lot. Because it really was a big and pervasive problem. But that makes a lot more sense for why the shorts now are more likely to be listed as UC and have fewer mislabeled than before.

Good to have not just my observations of my area from frankly but also some explanation behind it. Thanks.