Source: MRIS
Friday, October 9, 2009
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15 comments:
Thanks, Harriet and Robert (from yesterday).
Looks as though Arlington is loosening up, at least in some price ranges, though this may simply be a one time blip. The sales volume isn't near the 11/12 year bottom as it usually has been over the past year or two; it's creeping toward the middle, and the price drop is bigger. Hard to know, without seeing a breakdown by price range and type of house, whether my anecdotal observations posted earlier this week are correct.
Interesting also how its performance is different from those in the other counties.
We have much further to go across northern VA - prices are just way to ultra-inflated given the long terms price trends. Folks who are being lured into getting the tax credit will find themselves jumping in too soon!!
Expect at least 20% or more price correction this coming winter across all counties!!
For once I was close on my median price call for FFX! I said 8-10% up, it was 11.68% up.
Did you look at Fauqier, Culpeper and Stafford? Yikes! Who would have thought they could keep going lower?
Anyway, in my little ol Burke prices are up 15% but pretty clearly that's half because the 400-600 range is now selling and half because the low range is up 5-10% because of the interest rates and $8k. BUT in fabulous news? This is the first month since like February or March with more new listings than contracts and pendings! 74 new listings, not 60ish. Good, inventory is not going to plummet to nothing in the winter as things that are active get sold.
This flip looks terrible in several ways. First it looks like they did very little to warrant the 100K increase in price. I think this more outrageous thing about this house is that it has 7 bedrooms and only has 1400 sq. ft. above ground and 2 bathrooms. Those must be some tiny redrooms.
http://franklymls.com/FX7179676
I look at the 2008 numbers as representing a major clearing out of low-end reo's and 2009 as the beginning of a truer market picture.
Absent a tsunami of shadow inventory or further shocks to the ecomony, my guess is that the flattening has begun. The very low end overcorrected and has returned to FMV. Overall increases will reflect more a change in mix than price increases.
Bargains will still abound for those that take the time and effort (and risk) to find them and capilalize.
Va_investor,
If you're interested a great REO came up today in Burke, stumbling distance to the VRE, the "right" school districts, a perfect rental size of 1200 above ground plus full walkout basement. The only reason we're not interested is it's on the corner of a major road and the main road into an extended subdivision. So location-wise its not someplace I'd want to live in the long term, but to rent? I'd rent it in a heartbeat. It just needs to have the linoleum replaced with lino from this century and get a new refrigerator and its good to go. $239.2k list.
FX7179460
Yes it's more expensive than the TH's out near Braddock Road, but it's also in a more desirable location and not hideous architecture.
Given it's corner lot I don't think it's a steal at that price, but the lot isn't going to change what you could get in rent.
Off topic Tabitha...the Owens Woods Peabody house sold for $400,000
It's decent flip material, but not great with that location. The timing with seasonality doesn't seem great either.
I downloaded the Sept. NVAR report (.pdf) for Arlington. Here are some numbers that pretty much tell the story of the change in the mix and the lack of movement (still) in higher end SFH:
124 condos sold vs. 90 last year, at about -2% median sales price.
17 attached sold vs. 35 last year, at about +4% median sales price.
78 SFH detached sold vs. 66 last year, at about -1% median sales price. Of those:
<$800K: 214 active/61 sold = about 3.5 months of inventory
$800K - $999999: 48 active/9 sold = more than 5 months of inventory
> $1 mill.: 108 active/8 sold = more than 12 months of inventory.
The market never overcorrected, it rebounded from immense government intervention. Anybody with half a brain can see this. $8000 buyers bribes, taxpayer subsidized low-rate FHA loans, like the ones described in the NYTimes article the other day.
"I knew in my heart I could not really afford the house, but they gave it to me anyway," said Mr. Fullenkamp, 22. "I thought, 'Wow, I'm surprised I pulled that off.' "
Welcome back to the insanity of the housing bubble.
Kevin-
I think VA and you are talking about different locations. I agree that the orange line area never over corrected. I do think places with a ton of foreclosures in PWC did over correct. Many of these places fell below 2000 prices. I think it is hard justify housing being cheaper now than it was 10 years ago.
It depends. The housing bubble arguably started in 1998. I'll agree that if prices overcorrected anywhere, it happened in PWC. But I don't think they did in most areas.
Kevin-
I could agree with that. If you draw a circle with a radius of ~15-20 miles around DC most areas inside the circle did not over correct and most areas outside of it probably did over correct.
That said, there isn't necessarily anything wrong with overcorrecting either. Let's say Manassas overcorrected by 15%, for a period of 6 months. Well think how awesome that is for those that bought there in that period. They'll be positive-equity and non-foreclosure stats. Hopefully they bought well within their means, but these new shady FHA regulations have me worried.
I have been following the market trends for quite some time in NoVA. I feel it funny to see people talk about over-correction. We barely corrected yet in this region.
You need to look at the trend starting from late 1990. Homes are still listed at 3 times their prices 10 years back. Talk about sanity... I see people again flipping homes left and right - feels like 2004-2005 again.
When we look back at this period in next few months - when it would be apparent this was just a summer euphoria and sweet trick by fed/treasury to lure you in!!!
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