Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
Funny video 3:30 minsLink
WSJ and Calculated Risk:IRS Examining Many Suspicious First-Time Homebuyer Tax Credit Claimssurprise surprise, free money the object of fraud. hoocoodanode? Perhaps this will decrease the stated cost of the program...seems like a good reason not to expand it to all buyers to me.
From yesterday, TBW said to Cara "It sounds like even if he's a recidivist (and sounds like he might not be) he prefers teenagers. So it sounds like an issue for 2020 or beyond (and really more like 2023+)."Cara, why would you try to figure out whether or not this couple will be a problem now or later? They might never be a problem...so what? Move on. If you're analyzing things like "hey, it sounds like he prefers teenagers...", something's wrong. Think about how silly that sounds. Another thing to consider is resale. If you buy this place, many future buyers will cross it off their list as soon as they find out there's a SP in the neighborhood. I agree that you can't control who moves into your neighborhood after you're already there, but you might as well use the information you have available to avoid known problems.Don't know what the real recidivism rate is for sex offenders, but i wouldn't trust stats on that anyway. It only counts in the stats if they get caught.
novahog,tbw said that not me.What I was trying to sort out is more like what arkey said. Would our kids actually be safer in a different neighborhood. To which the answer is, not necessarily, not to the extent that I'd be comfortable giving my kids the pretty much unlimited unsupervised freedom I had when I was little.I run every possible angle I can think of on everything, why would this be any different?Yes, it will effect the resale value if we have to move before our 35 year plan is over. But it effects our purchase price too. I have no problem passing on to the next buyer, discounts I recieve from unchangeable issues. Especially when those issues actually will change, some day.
Cara,I also frequent another blog focused on parenting, and this topic comes up all the time - should I buy next to a SO and not surprisingly the overwhelming response is not just no, but no hell no. I think people's perspective may change significantly pre and post parenthood. Thought I'd share.
MM,thanks.But if people only read this blog they'd think that all buyers were holding off for better prices.Days on market for homes in the area doesn't seem to have been effected. I think a lot of people just don't look, despite the Megan's Law sheet being amongst the required documents in the Regional Agreement.Hopefully this will be taken out of our hands and someone more eager than us for the tax credit will bid higher. (va_investor's right, sometimes I do have a passive-agressive streak).
All in all I think my husband may be right. Let it age. While trees in both directions may be nearly unique, trees/lake/parkland view is not (hence why we love Burke/Springfield). If it's still there in a few weeks, when we know the status of the extension, we can decide to make a bid accordingly.
cara said "tbw said that not me."Yup, i was disagreeing with TBW's opinion.Every time i see a story about some creep abusing kids, i want to reach through the TV and put their head through a wall. I have zero tolerance for these people. I don't want to live near them if i have any control over it.As for resale value, you might get a discount that you could easily pass on to the next buyer. You would also get a discount if the house was next to a landfill."Would our kids actually be safer in a different neighborhood. To which the answer is, not necessarily, not to the extent that I'd be comfortable giving my kids the pretty much unlimited unsupervised freedom I had when I was little."I agree, but why move close to a known creep?
I really hope these stories of fraud get pounced on in the news. Get as much pressure building against Isakson and his plans to extend the buyers bribe as possible. I also hope they can do something with FHA, maybe raise it to 10%. But I hope for world peace too, so there aren't any high expectations here.
novahog said:I agree, but why move close to a known creep?or, to play devil's advocate (almost literally)at least you know about them, and so can take precautions, rather than moving into a neighbourhood with any number of invisible unapprehended sexual predators...
Kevin-Although I would also like them to raise the down payment requirement to 10% there is virtually no chance of this happening. I am pretty sure it has never been that high. It is possible it will go to something like 5% and that the 8K will go away. If both of these happen in close proximity it will obviously reduce the number of buyers as you hope. Although both of those would lower prices some I think mortgage rates are far more important for prices than either of those. So if rates go up housing prices would likely come down, but this would not help new buyers get more affordable prices, but instead it would just help lower the assets price.
I think more to the point is going to end up being, why buy this place now, when it would take every dime we've saved up to do so (at our absurd self-imposed restrictions of putting 20% down) when we could just wait and save a tad longer and see what's on the market in February (or sooner if prices drop post November). There are other lakes and parks in Burke, lots of them.I could also come up with plenty of post-facto justification of things I don't like about this place, but they are really the forest for the trees stuff. Really what I don't like is paying that much, when we're not ready to quite yet.(and by "that much" I mean our potential offer, not its list price).
buy now if you think $8K will expire. that free money would look like a $1M dollar on 4/15/2010.
Housebuyer,That's a good question: which would hurt the market more, a DP requirement of 5-10%, or increased mortgage rates?Say the typical just-above starter home is $300k, which is probably around what most young couples in the area can afford. Rates go up to 8%, and they can all of a sudden only afford $225k. Second scenario: they have to have a DP of 3.5% ($10,500), 5% ($15,000), or 10% ($30,000). Excluding this nightmare scenario of $8000 buyers bribes that can be bridged into a down payment, now they need $15k. Or, they will be looking at houses that are about 30% cheaper. Our $10.5k down payment bought us a $300k house, now it only gets us $210k. Same with 10% DP, where all of a sudden their ability to buy has been dampened some ~67% to $105k. (note: I don't think this would be a bad thing at all. think of how much more equity they would have in the long term and how much of their money can be invested and spent in our economy rather than a stupid mortgage payment if this were to occur)Thinking about that in the aggregate, I believe that the FHA rules changing and the DP requirement increasing would easily kill the market for first time buyers, but would have practically no effect on move-up buyers other than their struggle to sell, which is more a problem with their stubbornness and beliefs that their houses are worth their 2003-2006 values. But price-stickiness aside, this drop will be inevitable, but they'll still presumably have well over a 10% DP. Changing the rates will have an impact on what they can afford more than the DP rules.That's my from-the-hip take on which would do more damage. On the lower/middle end of the market, easily the down payment requirements. We're a society of spenders, not savers. That is the problem. But don't get me wrong, I think that the rates going from 5% to 8% would have a depreciating factor on the markets by about 25%. That's huge, and it's probably inevitable.
MM,Are you being facetious?It would still look like $8k....Anyway, good news, some one else has removed our dilemna by making an acceptable offer on the house.Fine by me.
Cara, that's awesome. Hopefully you're not too heart-broken=)
Moving next to a known creep might be a good financial move: the house is discounted because of the creep, but eventually, the creep will move/die/etc. With the creep no longer around, the house could become more valuable.
every year on tax day the $10K tax owed looked like $1MM to me...
20 Year Old Buys Home With $183,000 FHA Loan And Just 3.5% DownThe comments below the article are hilarious.
kevin,Relieved really. If we decide we absolutely must have a view, we can buy a TH with a view in February or later once our cash catches up with our wants. (assuming that the one thing prices won't do is rise in winter, which if that's wrong, I'm sticking it out and renting).
I'd be pretty surprised if prices don't tank this winter. For me, I don't mind waiting, even when I do see these price increases (which were predictable given the govt interference). There's just sort of an inevitability to this whole thing. Bubbleheads welcome efforts by the govt to "stabilize" the market, i.e. prop up bubble prices. If, god-willing, this credit is allowed to die a quick death and the market forces do their thing this winter, we'll see some new record-low prices by spring time. If we're blessed with a colossal dumping of foreclosures on the market all while there are no more first-time buyers out there, I'll probably laugh myself to death. We'll just have to wait and see, but you obviously know what you're doing, and I think you made the smart move for reasons particular to your wants, and to the market overall.
kevinAs I've said before, never trust me I bought Cisco at $40 on the way down.
LOL well everybody is bound to make bad stock purchases here and there. I'm normally pretty smart with my money and pride myself on my purchases. For example, a couple of years ago, the car I wanted would have cost me $20k. Because it's an SUV, I bought it when oil was peaking and got it for $13k, simply because the supply and demand had caused such a massive shift in the values of SUVs. Oil could have stayed there and I think it would have been a good purchase, but it fell and made it an excellent one. Contrast that with my decision three and a half years ago to buy a yellow sports car. I sold it this summer for $10k less than I bought it, and barely put on 10k miles. That was just stupid of me.Point is, we can beat ourselves up over stupid financial decisions we make, but we learn from them and hopefully our smart decisions outweigh the dumb ones in terms of $ and the times we do them. When it comes to buying a house, that's the biggest purchase of them all, hence our common hawk-like attention to the markets and what we're doing. Quite unlike the person in that article I just posted, paying 54% of her net income on her FHA mortgage that she'll likely default on in the near future, at the expense of taxpayers.
Hey Cara, I have as many regrets about NOT buying Apple stock on its way up (several times).Kevin's right; it's what we learn from the experiences that matters. But I'm still trying to sort out what I've learned from real estate fiascoes.
ace,kevCisco's just my running joke. I only bought 23 shares. In the scheme of things, that's nothing.And it did definitely teach me about not buying what I don't understand and not buying on the way down if you can help it. I just like to joke about it.
LJJ said: "at least you know about them, and so can take precautions, rather than moving into a neighbourhood with any number of invisible unapprehended sexual predators..."You have an equal chance of unknowns in both neighborhoods, so why guarantee you have one in yours by choosing the hood with a known SP?NovaWatcher said: "Moving next to a known creep might be a good financial move..."Can't tell if you're joking. I assume you are.
contrarian,Ah, jeremy must have posted that in the old bucket:Jeremy has left a new comment on the post "Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 10/19/2009": From CNN Money today:Homes: About to get much cheaperHowever, I was not able to get the Washington area local data to show up in their "Local Forecast" tool. Cara has left a new comment on the post "Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 10/19/2009": Jeremy,thanks for the link. I heard the story this morning, but hadn't bothered to follow up:Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Forecast change: June 30, 2009 – June 30, 2010 -11.5% Forecast change: June 30, 2010 – June 30, 2011 +5.6% Market fundamentals Median Family Income(2008) $97,200 Median Home Price(Second quarter 2009) $350,000 Change in Home Prices(From second quarter 2008 thru second quarter 2009) -10% Worst 1-Year Home Price Change(1980-2009) -21.6%(2008:Q4)
04/11/2007Fiserv is forecasting flat prices nationwide over the next 12 monthsDo people pay for their "research"?
Thanks for finding the local data Cara, and copying my post to the proper bucket. If prices really do go down 11.5% where I'm looking by this coming Summer it will be hard for me to keep renting another year. One can always hope.
Now for a little anecdote from the bright side. Just met a new neighbor while walking my dog. They've already closed on the new purchase and just listed the old house a couple of days ago. 26 couples at yesterday's open. 28 agents at today's broker's open.Since they didn't have to sell the old to buy the new, I don't see a foreclosure in their future. They are at least 70 yrs old. My guess is cash for the new home.New home price was in the 8's. Old ???? Don't know for sure, but I'd bet it's a trade-down situation.p.s. new house went at peak for 950 or so.
tbw,My comment was intended to show that there is activity in the mid-upper price ranges, nothing more.I've already put forth my opinion about prices going forward (most recently on the last thread).
Va_Investor,i think 26 buyers showed up at the open house was very very impressive. but does 28 agents at brokers open mean anything?
VA_Investor, thanks for the anecdotal evidence. Then, I stumbled upon a couple listings that have been on the market for over a year and concluded that nothing is selling. I'm so confused.=)
Over a year? Could we get a zip, Kev?I imagine you are looking in the under 500K range; exactly what subdivision are these places in?tbw,The one that sold was priced a few percent under assessment.
VA_Investor, it was a joke. But I'm sure if I were still in the habit of serving you data upon request and without reciprocity, I could find some.
Oh, I'm quite certain you could Kevin...I'd start with 5 million dollar homes and work my way down. And, there is always WVA.
MM,Broker's opens are important. I doubt many would show up if the place wasn't an attractive buy. For the most part they are there to preview and see if the house is suitable for any of their clients. Of course, a catered lunch can be another incentive.
There are definitely homes that have been on the market over a year - even in the Vienna/Oakton area I'm looking. They just don't show up easily on searches since they have been delisted a time or two. I'm constantly getting Redfin e-mails with "new" listings of homes that I've seen before. I think after 90 days they count as completely new listings, with no way to track the previous list price since they never sold (well, other than my saved up Redfin e-mails).
Anecdotes vs. statistical evidence...hmmm...For those interested in the latter, in Arlington alone, there are more than 10 houses above $800K that remain on the market unsold after a year. Some are under contract.Just for you, Kevin, these owners are celebrating :-) the 1000 day mark today:http://franklymls.com/AR6270667
Aw, man. I get busy at work and I missed the predators discussion. I could even have said it was work--seeing as it's tangential. Recidivism rates vary by study but are generally found to be 80-95% depending on sample size, etc.And mostly people have picked up on the fact that it's not the one that's registered and living down the block that's the biggest threat. The known threat can be protected against. It's the ones you don't know, who are likely to be trusted. Sexual abuse from strangers accounts for only about 11% of cases.Would I buy a house next door to a convicted child abuser? No, I don't think so. 14-month old daughter, and as much as I ignore my current neighbors, I see them all the time, and I remember spending a lot of time outdoors when I was younger, talking to the neighbors, etc. At that point a nice house isn't worth the protection effort I have to put in. Particularly if she gets siblings down the road.
"Ace said...Just for you, Kevin, these owners are celebrating :-) the 1000 day mark today:"Pshaw Ace - thats nuthin. These guys were on and off the market for the better part of 10 years - they mock 1000 days.http://franklymls.com/AX6528713Still cant believe they got their full 1.5MM price for that wierd place...
Ha, TheAnon, I had forgotten about that gem. Do you suppose the buyer got all those adjacent lots as well?
The Anon., it appears the buyer bought all the adjacent lots as well, for the total price of $1.5 mill. (see code G - "multi-lot sale", and the sale for 211, 215, 215A and 217 S Patrick):http://realestate.alexandriava.gov/detail.php?accountno=11464500http://realestate.alexandriava.gov/recent.php?study=0208&accountno=11464500&year=2009So you were probably generous in your evaluation of the property.
oops - make that S Patrick.The county's assessed value for all 4 is very close to $1.5 mill.
A story from the Fairfax Times about Fairfax County teachers and administrators burned by a NC land scam.Fairfax principals linked to North Carolina land scam
http://franklymls.com/AR6270667--damn, 1000 days. Just way overpriced?
TBW, good point, but the house also is really overpriced relative to assessed value. Plus it looks kind of awkward for a house of this price, and probably is in a neighborhood where most of the houses are a lot cheaper than it. So many sellers don't "get it." Just as buyers who buy $300K houses may be reluctant to be in a neighborhood where all the other houses are $125K, people who are spending what this seller is asking expect to be around houses that are similar in value. If they aren't they will discount the price accordingly.
Regarding AR6270667, the re-built house on 12th St. in Lacey Forest in Arlington, the only problem with the house is that its yard adjoins the yard of one of Arlington's most notorious hoarders who lives on Frederick St. facing Lacey Woods Park. Last year after one of the owners' teenage sons died in the house from an asthma attack, Arlington Co. took away the other children. Owners sued Arlington Co. and were successful in getting the children back. They continue to threaten the Co. with more suits if Co. tries to make them clean up the house and yard. It is not just this house affected by the hoarder. There was another good rebuild up the street that sat around for months because it was even on the same block as the hoarder house. My guess is that the Great Falls builder who re-did the house on 12th St. thought he could get the Co. to make the owners clean up the yard. The above-ground pool alone is a sight to behold.
Aw, anie, that is really sad. Those people need psychiatric help. I can't believe their son died. Horrible.
Ace -- good point. In all fairness, the multi parcel aspect of the sale likely complicated the negotiations.
"Contrarian said...My position is consistent with the anticipated correction in real estate prices discussed in media outlets today."Really? Sure about that? Cuz that fiserv source YOU cited says that prices in DC are going to go up +5.6% in 2010.Methinks this is another example of you not researching your sources thoroughly enough. So why dont you go ahead and start tap dancing to distance yourself from what you just said.
Post a Comment
Subscribe in a reader