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Friday, August 21, 2009
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30 comments:
Economist Article on Housing Crash
Analysts at Goldman Sachs, no fools when it comes to housing, hint at several years of stagnation. They argue that the rate of home ownership, currently just over 67%, will fall back to the 64-65.5% level that prevailed before prices took off in the mid-1990s, cutting deeply into demand for properties. This view is supported by a recent Fed study, which found that more than half of the boom-era rise in ownership was due to “innovative” mortgage products, many of which are now history.
It could be even worse. Now that the myth of ever-rising house prices has been shattered, it may be time to embrace another inconvenient truth: that prices can take decades to recover, at least when adjusted for inflation. A study in June by the Federal Housing Finance Agency, a regulator, pointed out that in parts of Texas house prices still languish some 30% below their 1982 peaks in real terms.
I liked the Realtor review on this house (go to the bottom of the page):
http://franklymls.com/AR7123220
LOL, Ace!
I saw one today that mentioned problems with an "imposter heir." Never seen that before!
AR7140057
haha, paKa! I guess that Realtor figures the imposter won't be viewing MLS listings. Maybe s/he's angry that the imposter didn't remove the blue bins from the porch?
http://franklymls.com/FX7139805
LOCATION**LOCATION**WALK TO GIANT AND CVS, AS THEY ARE IN YOUR FRONT YARD
Ace,
Great find!
I would not buy anything that close to I-66. It's not just the noise. I think it's inevitable that they expand the number of lanes in I-66 inside the Beltway -- although Arlington sure has been able to slow it down over the decades. I've read that they can do so without any additional eminent domain but I wonder if that's really true.
Statistics repeatedly show that I'm not poor, no matter how I feel, or how poorly my income and debt status prepare me for purchasing a home here in D.C. But it's still frustrating anecdotally to see these things.
Then I read something like this, from Ben's blog, and I suddenly do remember that we are making a heck of a lot more money than most people in the country.
“She and her longtime companion stopped paying on their $840-a-month mortgage in February and their house has gone into foreclosure. They attended a mediation conference in county court Wednesday with their lender but are not optimistic about saving their home. Now making $120 a week as a part-time supermarket cashier, Kennedy says she commiserates with her co-workers, some of whom are also facing foreclosure.”
“‘We talk about it and laugh,’ she said. ‘It’s not really a funny situation, but sometimes you have to laugh to keep your sanity, so you don’t make yourself nuts.’”
NoVAWatcher,
Not shocked that is a foreclosure. When they tore down the ramblers there and built them up they should have built a fortress of trees to separate it from Chain Bridge Road (many of the nearby developments did this) and gotten an easement to have those houses connected to a secondary road. Honestly who wants to try getting out of the driveway onto Chain Bridge Road? Or turn into your driveway from Chain Bridge Road? Probably very doable in 1950-60 but pretty tough during rush hour nowadays.
Interesting notation in the county records. Here is the guy who bought it from the developer:
Date 12/19/2006
Amount $1,500,000
Seller REMCO GROUP INC
Buyer FAROOQ IBAD
Notes Atypical price - could not be verified
Deed Book and Page 18995-1706
I wonder if "atypical price" means they thought something fishy was going on it. It assessed $1,081,450 in 2007. Maybe the county was saying even in these crazy bubble days we find it hard to believe someone paid $1.5M for a home we assessed at $1.08M and the county was admitting maybe there was some fraudulent activity going on? Can anyone figure out that county notation? I've never seen it before.
Farooq Ibad worked for Remco?
http://www.connectionnewspapers.com/article.asp?article=240607&paper=81&cat=104
Wow excellent sleuthing NoVAWatcher. I wonder how many of these spec houses ended up being "bought" by the development company. Of course he hypothetically could have wanted the home for himself but seems fishy.
Cara,
This looks like a steal..
Shiplett
compared to this...
Fort Coloran
Some investor should make some quick money here.
Shiplett has bars on the windows and looks likes it needs to be fumigated.
New unemployment numbers are out.
Unemployment in VA fell from 7.2 to 6.9.
DC fell from 10.9 to 10.6.
MD increased from 7.3 to 8.4
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/08/21/AR2009082101636.html
This isn't totally unexpected since the national unemployment rate went down 0.1 percent. So not too shocking to see some jurisdictions like VA and DC go down 0.3 percent.
What is shocking is that Maryland went up 1.1%. What is up with that?
was chatting with a co-worker who recently closed a SFH in MD via an 'organic sale.' he surprised me when he said he gave up on SSs after wasting seven months and three offers coz he learned that banks never really want SS because if they foreclose but lose money the gov't gives them TARP money to make up for the loss. is there any truth to this at all?
MM. I just don't know. But something is "fishy". We had a short sell in our neighborhood that friends of one our neighbors put under contract...much later..like 4/5 months..it was canceled because the house went into foreclosure. Its back on the market at the same list price as a foreclosure as it was as a SS.
Arkey, you mean this house, right?
http://franklymls.com/PW7138572
Because we watched that house for a long time. But they had been asking much for for it as a short sale than the bank is asking for it now:
PREVIOUS LISTING PRICE HISTORY
3/13/2008 $568,000
213 days at price
10/12/2008 $560,000
4 days at price
10/16/2008 $498,900
Now the bank is asking $431,900, just over the 2009 assessment of $400K.
But maybe you mean another house?
No Tabitha thats the same house...notice it doesn't have the 09 listing price which was the same as this.
Yaay! We have new neighbors at last! The SS next door http://franklymls.com/MP6875694 finally sold.
We met the new homeowners yesterday and they said they finally closed on the house the same day. The relieved couple said that the process took 11 months and was a real nightmare. They are busy giving their new house tlc.
What is shocking is that Maryland went up 1.1%. What is up with that?
It's wrong. Maryland is 7.3%. The Post still hasn't corrected the story.
Maryland’s unemployment rate creeped to 7.3 percent in July, but employers in the state still added 10,000 new jobs during the month.
It's corrected now - from 7.2 to 7.3 for Maryland.
Lots of excuses in that article about why the numbers are "wrong."
Over the past 12 months, Virginia has shed 104,000 jobs.
William F. Mezger, chief economist for the Virginia Employment Commission, attributed the drop to the timing of the survey, which was later than usual and picked up people who had just returned to work from vacation furloughs. Furloughs were up 60 percent over last year and mostly took place in June through early July, Mezger said.
The timing of the data collection also excluded graduating students who had been looking for work in May and in June. They have either found work or left the workforce. And the size of the labor force overall increased because of a normal surge in agricultural workers.
Does anyone believe that recent college grads who couldn't find a job "left the workforce"?
arkey--
My bad. I could have sworn the last asking price was higher, but then again, I was distracted this spring, so I must be wrong.
NVW, only those who decide to go to graduate school because they can't find a job.
Isn't June a little too late to decide on graduate school for the fall?
The unemployment stats are so ridiculous, they aren't even worth paying attention to. Garbage in/garbage out.
Meshell, I am not arguing that there are many of these people; I'm just noting that they are the only ones I can think of who would have pulled themselves off the job market.
Some of them apply (and get admitted) while they are looking for jobs, well before June.
Yeah, most places make their decisions in February - early March, with some Masters programs making decisions in May.
Robert,
I guess. Those both just look ugly and unappealing to me. I don't like either location. The more expensive one looks marginally prettier from the street and looks a lot bigger. And is more convenient to the VRE at the price of also backing right up to the tracks...
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