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Thursday, August 13, 2009
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42 comments:
Robert's right, just got more under contract/contingency notifications, If you're a potential seller in Burke right now, it's the perfect time to put your house on the market. Price it right and you'll find a buyer in under two weeks!
The other upstairs unit with a real seller in "my" community is now under contract:
http://franklymls.com/FX7122539
I wouldn't chose it myself because of the location with respect to two major roads, but with a fully redone interior and all new appliances (according to the listing) it's a good deal (in today's market anyway). (i.e. I feel the location has been priced in).
Contrarian So you are saying that we will need about a 3 year supply of cash, medication and groceries to last from Dec. 1, 2009 when the $8,000 subsidy expires until Dec. 21, 2012?
reecon,
With deflation, I'd say a 1 year supply of cash in today's dollars should last you through the three tough years. ;)
NY Times:
France and Germany bottoming out?
The economy of the 27-nation European Union shrank 0.3 percent in the three months through June. The 16 countries that use the euro, the common European currency, registered a 0.1 percent decline in activity for the second quarter.
...
Underlying the surprisingly strong reading were solid performances in France and Germany, both of which grew by 0.3 percent in the second quarter, government data showed.
Cliff diving is ending, let the L shaped recovery begin...
Here's a nice depressing story on job loss from yesterday's WaPo:
Lying Low After a Layoff
My company had layoffs at the end of last year and another round last week. The current job market, at least in the tech areas I watch, is terrible. Times are tough out there!
Some in the MSM are presenting the new unemployment claims and retails sales reports for July as changes for the worse, but really CR has it right, we're bumping along the bottom, when some were "expecting" a "v".
WaPo on retail sales
Anyone who has driven down Fox Mill Rd. has seen this spec-built monstrosities. The free section of Yahoo Foreclosures suggests that one of these is being foreclosed on:
(yahoo foreclosures first)
http://tinyurl.com/qzl4rt
http://franklymls.com/FX7023268
http://www.boterohomes.com/portfolio/SFFox3.pdf
http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3235-Fox-Mill-Rd-Oakton-VA-22124/72489685_zpid/
novawatcher,
good find. I like the Zestimate of 1.6 million on something that the yahoo foreclosures says is going to be auctioned at a start price $600k less. Tax records show Fox I LLC as the owner, sounds like the builder? From google maps it looks like this was the last one built. (i.e. it's not there yet...)
Home prices fall a record 15.6%
I wish that articles like this went into further detail about the mix of homes and how it is affecting the median price. I think whenever the 8k homebuyer tax credit expires it will actually cause an increase in the median home price purely because of the new mix of sales - no more sales to people who can't save up their own down payment. Is there a way we can track and analyze this for ourselves?
Maybe Yahoo is wrong, because this said it is sold:
http://www.boterohomes.com/portfolio/fox-III.html
On the other hand, the tax records don't show any sales.
Jeremy,
honestly I don't know who to believe anymore. Perhaps that confusion itself is a sign of the bottom.
But yes, anything that slows sales in the low end will move the median up. Whether it's a slowing of REO supply or slowing of the supply of low-down-payment buyers.
At some point you've just got to analyse the comps yourself. Case-Schiller is the next best thing, but it doesn't tell you what you want to know, where is my target neighborhood headed, or is there a better value out there I should start thinking about?
PurpleMan,
Please keep us posted on this. I hope others can advise you, a few have watched foreclosures in their neighborhoods, but not I.
I doubt "forever" will be longer than 8 months, based on the list date/purchase by the bank date of REO listings I've seen. You can use frankly to search for listings with "bank" in the listing, and then click on the FFX county tax records, and then click on the sales header on the left to get the date of trustee's sale for REO listings in your general area.
But it's going to depend on the bank, their REO process, if they have an investor like Capital LLC lined up to buy it and rehab it, a lot of things. After auction you should be able to find out who bought it.
If you're friendly with the neighbor you could also just ask if they'd let your friend walk through it to decide if they wanted to bid on it at the auction itself.
Somewhat OT again but I'm obsessed with Asian Tiger mosquitoes and how annoying they are. The Post had an article about residential spraying services in this area:
Mosquitoes be gone!
I wear long pants and long sleeves when I work in the yard and cover all exposed skin in this stuff:
Repel Lemon Eucalyptus
It smells somewhat strong but works great, without DEET. How far north do I have to move to outrun these jerks?
Realty Track has a questionable methodolgy but here are their July numbers:
Virginia
Rate Rank 14
NOD 5
LIS 0
NTS 3,927
NFS 0
REO 2,474
Total 6,406
1/every X HU (rate) 511
% from Jun 09 23.48
% from Jul 08 11.51†
District of Columbia
NOD 267
LIS 0
NTS 219
NFS 0
REO 35
TOTAL 521
RATE 546
June Change 24.94
08 Change -6.80
Maryland
Rank 11
NOD 0
LIS 3,521
NTS 0
NFS 633
REO 998
TOTAL 5,152
Rate 450
June Change 66.19
09 Change 65.98
† Collection of some records previously classified as NOD in this state was discontinued starting in January 2009
Report methodology
The RealtyTrac U.S. Foreclosure Market Report provides a count of the total number of properties with at least one foreclosure filing reported during the month — broken out by type of filing at the state and national level. Data is also available at the individual county level. Data is collected from more than 2,200 counties nationwide, and those counties account for more than 90 percent of the U.S. population. RealtyTrac’s report incorporates documents filed in all three phases of foreclosure:
Default — Notice of Default (NOD) and Lis Pendens (LIS);
Auction — Notice of Trustee Sale and Notice of Foreclosure Sale (NTS and NFS); and
Real Estate Owned, or REO properties (that have been foreclosed on and repurchased by a bank).
If more than one foreclosure document is filed against a property during the month, only the most recent filing is counted in the report. The report also checks if the same type of document was filed against a property in a previous month. If so, and if that previous filing occurred within the estimated foreclosure timeframe for the state the property is in, the report does not count the property in the current month.
FWIW.
DC has a lot more notices and foreclosure sales than it does REOs...
Maryland appears to be getting drastically worse on the notices of default front.
Virginia no longer reports it's NODs, and has only half again as many NTS's as it does REOs, so it may be pretty much just a continuation of the same, with a slight increase in REO's to be expected soon, but not a huge amount.
That is, if you think Realty Trac is in anyway accurate.
Ok so here's my question O'the Day
I've seen several REO'S that are listed as "Active" on Frankly.
When my Agent call the REO listing Agent, we find out that they are "collecting" Contracts & the Bank is taking the highest/best bid.
So, the Banks are now creating bidding wars.
If this is the case, (and they are getting good returns on their REO'S)
then why aren't Banks releasing a lot more of their "shadow inventory" that we all know they hold?
Spunky-
It is a timing thing. They will keep the supply of REOs pretty low so that they continue to get a bunch of bids. If they released all of their REOs at once it would depress all housing prices and seriously depress the prices of REOs and other properties that need work.
They really have no incentive to try and bring housing prices down...
spunky,
Leaving the listing open for 2 weeks or so for all offers is just the MO of REOs, and has been for as long as I've been looking (2 years).
Where I'm looking I don't think there is any "shadow inventory", there is just stuff working it's way through the pipeline of default, trustee's sale, rehab, and REO with side branches off to flippers when possible.
The speed of the pipeline may depend on the area, and the banks feeling they can get their money's worth for putting in the effort to bring it to sale...
Well, I have serious doubts about shadow inventory. I know some think forclosures are up because of the reading of the zipcode foreclosure list but the numbers are from Jan. 07 thru June 09. It still has 20111 Manassas as the biggie which is an error and has been since they started reporting the 50% property value declines. So you have to take info with a grain of salt. PWC had 12,000 (roughly) foreclosures in 07 and 08if you look at the volumn of U/C and sold you will find the shadow inventory just hasn't been recorded, yet. PWC/MP 20111 is fifth in foreclosure over Woodbridge (3)and the real Manassas area codes 20109 and 20110. 20111 shares Manassas Park where they got clobbered in a couple of neighborhoods and in real low end and Ellis Plantation high end in the county for the true picture of the 20111 foreclosure mess.
Thanks for the input Arkey
I watch 20143, 20155 & 20169 in PWC
"Here's a nice depressing story on job loss from yesterday's WaPo:"
Check out the reader's comments. That story is even worse.
Thanks Spunky..I'll keep my ears posted for you. Up our way from listening..er..easy dropping..on VRE people I know for a fact there are no real foreclosures avaiable. Some of these people have been trying since late 07 to buy one. One tip I have is to get on the listing agents email notification. I do know there are some coming up for release and the banks have people waiting in line for them..that's where you see alot of the 0 list dates. As soon as it hits the MLS an email notice goes out. I did have one friend that actually gave up in early Mar this year. She got the email that it would be listed at 12 noon, took leave, got there at 4 pm on a cold, nasty, spitting snow day and was number 30 to get inside. Just so you know, not to scare you off but just a glimpse of how difficult it truely is to get one.
If you want to see what I consider a flip here you go.
http://franklymls.com/FX7123997
The person is trying to sell the house for 50% more than he bought for less than 3 months ago. It looks like the only work was some pergo flooring and replacing the the stove and fridge. My favorite part is they didn't even get the right color for the appliances. The dishwasher and microwave are black and they got a white stove and fridge so they do not match at all.
I really be really sad if someone actually pays anywhere near asking price for this.
Dang Contrarian-
You sure are scaring me right out of wanting to buy RE now!
Jeff B--
Good Lord in heaven, what a comments section for the article you linked to! Sounds like a lot of adults failed to grow up emotionally...the post from the 13 year old daughter, if in fact she is the author, has way more class and dignity than the others...but then, this is the internet, so who knows what's actually going on?
Thanks, contrarian. I need to go change my drawers before I go take $20k out of my account and stuff it under my mattress.
housebuyer: is that the same place someone posted a few days ago? Either way, it's in a rough part of town, and there is no way in hell I'd pay $390k for that place.
Also, these nicer and cheaper units are just around the corner in a nicer part of town:
www.franklymls.com/FX7132233
www.franklymls.com/FX7121811
Regarding Cara's comment for more jobs convenient for Burke . . .
I think a good area for a lot of jobs would be Centreville. Routes 28, 29, and I-66 all have access to there. Those coming from 50W-South Riding would have easy access, so would Burke/Fairfax Station, Manassas side of PWC, and Chantilly.
Cons -- those various roads already have a lot of traffic and not sure the county wants to widen any of the roads any more (they have recently widened almost all of them).
Pros -- would help make an argument for extending the Orange Line down I-66W to Centreville (and Fair Lakes jobs).
I saw a clip of Roubini on CNBC (it was on Huffington Post). He still sees 40% down from peak (national figure) as the bottom.
But more important is what he reminded the viewer -- that $4+ gas was what pushed us to the global recession. Housebuyer has mentioned this recession factor in recent days.
It's easy to forget we didn't have a recession during the early days of the housing bust. It took that bust (lower equity meant less fake money/people not feeling as wealthy) + ridiculously high gas prices to lower discretionary spending. So lower home prices alone didn't create this mess.
So I think our economy can pick up and home prices can continue to decline a little more without creating a double dip recession.
Now if things pick up, home prices go down further, AND there's $4+ gas again then I can see a W. Given OPEC countries are suffering from the global recession they will probably do whatever they can to limit expensive gas (I don't think they were really trying all that hard). Of course, it's an open debate as to whether OPEC really can control the price of oil. That's above my pay grade.
*I don't think they were really trying all that hard to lower prices during the time period it go to $4 (since short term it was making them even more filthy rich.)
Contrarian, can we put a timeline on your Elliott Wave call of doom?
The reason I ask is because it sounds an awful lot like when your high priest of the Elliot Wave was calling for the exact same collapse....in 1989
"the 1980's bull market, whether it is over or has one last gasp, will be followed by a depression and plunging prices as a major and prolonged bear market begins. ''Once the market turns, it won't be just Black Monday, but Black Tuesday and Wednesday and Thursday and Friday,'' said Mr. Frost, who saw the rising tide of debt as one of the problems that would cause a financial collapse."
http://www.nytimes.com/1989/02/06/business/market-place-2-theorists-split-on-elliott-wave.html
Nova-
I think the first one looks like a much better deal. The second one looks a lot smaller and only has one full bath, which is an issue for a lot of people
Burke is much closer to the Springfield-Newington business district. There is already a lot of industrial/commercial office area near where Rolling, Alban and Fullerton road meet just west of I-95. That's where the Ft. Belvoir Engineering Proving Ground is and where those the jobs from the National Geospatial Intelligence Agency on Sunrise Valley Drive in Reston are relocating to in 2011. Some of the road improvements to both the Fairfax County Parkway and I-95, I believe, are already underway.
I was making a little joke (which no one picked up on) this morning asking Contrarian if we would need cash, groceries and meds from Dec. 1 2009 (when the $8000 subsidy ends) until Dec. 21, 2012, the last day on the Aztec calendar and the day many think the world will end. If any of you have been to the movies lately, they are running trailers for a hyped-up movie showing what will happen on Dec. 21, 2012. I am not sure what will wipe out the Federal Reserve but the aircraft carrier John F. Kennedy comes in on a tsunami wave and wipes out the White House. So if The Anonymous wants a timeline, the end will probably be Dec. 21, 2012 -- and not just for the wave, the W, V or L shaped recovery. Personally, I am just hoping Arlington gets that trolley running on Columbia Pike before Dec. 21, 2012. I have spent my life hearing about it, and would like to see it happen to see if people really will like it more than the buses.
"reecon said...
I was making a little joke (which no one picked up on) this morning asking Contrarian if we would need cash, groceries and meds from Dec. 1 2009 (when the $8000 subsidy ends) until Dec. 21, 2012, the last day on the Aztec calendar and the day many think the world will end."
I heard something on NPR about that 12/21/12 end of the world date.
Unfortunately, I think there will be calls by Elliot Wave theorists about the significance of that date. For example, after that failed 1989 call I noted above, some other Elliot Wavers wrote this piece detailing how the depression would start as a result of Y2K
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/mbutler120299e.html
Like moths to a flame, anything that portends doom is quite attractive to them.
I think it's the Mayan calendar that ends in 2012.
I got accepted at the school of my choice.. and I need to apply for housing and loans.
nyc short term rentals
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