These inventory numbers were extrapolated from VirginiaMLS.com. The total "Northern Virginia Inventory" represents the combined housing inventory (that's listed on the MLS) of Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County.
Total inventory is at its lowest point since July-August, 2005.
(Here's the spreadsheet on a separate page).
Saturday, August 8, 2009
Current Housing Inventory
Posted by Harriet at 9:50 AM
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11 comments:
Striking.
Demand is greater than supply.
My brother tried to buy a rental property in Manassas recently. He offered $15K above asking (that's 13% of the asking price!) after it had been on the market 4 days, 25% down, huge earnest money deposit. There were already 8 offers. He didn't even get a "give us your best and final" request--the bank just went with another offer.
But there's still lots of places for sale in the ghetto.
FFX Cnty, 800 fewer listings since May, is there any easy way to tell how many of those are people pulling their houses off the market like in that WaPo article (I suspect not so many in FFX), and add back in all the SS's that are "under contract", but which have about a 66% chance of coming active again when the bank gets its act together and decides on an acceptable price?
The math still sort of works out for SS, because every U/C represents a potential buyer, but still it's hard to interpret these numbers in such a wierd market.
I've had to explain to at least 3 people at work what a short sale is in the last 2 weeks. This market really has some totally unheard of phenomena that throws any rules of thumb out of whack.
Wake me up when FFX county available inventory gets under 1500. Then I'll worry. (unless there are also 3000 UC SS's at the same time).
Tabitha,
I helped my neice get a place early this year in Manassas (City, I think). What are the ghetto areas? She is in Battery Park. Is that OK? It looked good to me.
Va Investor,
I am unfamiliar with Battery Park. Could that be Battery Heights, close to the VRE? Do you remember the name of a nearby street?
Yes, Battery Heights.
how many of these places compare against
NOT/NOD for the jurisdictions.
the folks at pigington have been covering
shadow inventory by comparing NOTs
to actual sales, it appears to be running 3:1,
that the banks are sitting on inventory because
MTM is no longer in effect and Bernanke is loaning them free money to sit on this, so, they are trying to
reflate the bubble.
Pat,
First of all, you have to admit that rising prices -- like we're seeing in the sub $500k market in NoVA -- will snuff out foreclosures and short sales going forward.
Second, the actual hidden inventory is, "reverse shadow inventory." This is inventory currently listed as "Active" in the MRIS, but really isn't available to purchase.
Here are a couple of snippits from South Riding "Active" listings:
1. SHORT SALE PROCCES HAS BEEN START,BACK UP CONTRACTS MORE THAN WELCOME
2. NEED BACKUP OFFER(8/9/09)!!
3. We are accepting back up offer.
These house are basically sold, but listed as Active. Inventory is 20-30% LESS than listed in the original post of this blog.
Check here:
South Riding Blog
Robert: Demand is greater than supply.
Supply is being manipulated as well as demand. Pretty simple, my boy.
kevin,
I see the "manipulation", as it may be/is, continuing until we are out of the woods.
Clearly, the buying spurt (esp. reo's) is generating alot of spending - Home Depot, appliances, contractors, furniture, etc.
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