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Friday, July 24, 2009
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24 comments:
Mr. Contrarian,
Things are getting better or more accurately, it is getting worse at a slower rate.
The doom may win out but I am not betting on that. I am making small bets on equities and contracting for upgrades to my home.
"we just choose to spend our money in a different way"
Mr. Gte reminded me. Last year I put a large flat TV on my wall. It was $700. Twenty years ago, a tube TV, half that size, was about that much.
Recently I traded down my cell phone to a prepaid. My annual cost will fall from $400 to about $50. I do not use the phone that much.
Cars in my area tend to be small, easy to park, inexpensive, and paid off.
That frees up money for home purchases, repairs, and appliances. It reveals the mindset of some home owners in the immunozone, their priorities, and personal tradeoffs.
I am agreeing with Mr. Gte but pointing out that a subset of the population has analyzed the problem and reached the same conclusions that he has.
Their home is a priority over the "candy".
"Contrarian said...
Us doomers continue to maintain our position.
The question becomes: when do you concede you are wrong?"
Ahh Contrarian - bringing us some international doom aid to lap up -- glug, glug, glug...
Funny how you ask me to concede I am wrong on a future event. Its hysterical you are asking anyone to concede anything given that hal turner debacle of yours (you still insist he is a credible source of information).
As an aside, this dispenser of doomaid you bring us today says INFLATION will be a problem and recommends buying gold NOW. So is he wrong or are the deflationary high priests of the elliott wave wrong?
Take your pick...
Arkey--
Just curious why you decided to jump back in. Are you happy with the recent sales as comps? Impressed with the activity levels?
Pat-
You linked to a house in NE by Gallaudet in the other thread. I had a few clinic clients who lived in that neighborhood (Trinidad or near Trinidad) in law school. I refused to go there to see clients in daylight without my 6'4 boyfriend as bodyguard. I would call that the WORST neighborhood in DC. I felt much safer in Anacostia than that area.
Also, it is insanely rat-infested over there. Tons of those tiny little trash-filled back alleys.
If you live in that area already and are just a civic-minded urban pioneer, than kudos to you but when house-shopping keep in mind the very small pool of potential next-buyers for your place.
Tabitha we decided to go back because all the double wings went under contract. No, I'm not to happy with the price of 7005 but its not entirly their fault, the owner countered but then caved and called back to accept thier first offer which was at least 15,000 to low even if she was a bigtime fixer upper. The other 2 got more even the one on Bear Creek Dr. The bright side is they only plan to be here 2 years and are fixing to trick it out and they do have $$$ in their eyes. Our realtor had a va/fha/convention certified appraiser give us a FMA so I'm comfortable that we will not have appraisal issues so many have had at closing. We have already had 2 look at it and 3 for sure coming tomorrow for the open house. People sure do love coming to my house....giggle/snort..ya think its that dang pinball?
Arkey: good luck with your sale. My son lives near your house and teaches at Osbourn Park High School. He bought his place a few years ago and paid about $440,000 for it so he is not in a bad position financially. His yard is big and he cuts it himself. He takes about 2 hours on his riding mower and I take about 2 hours with my push mower on my quarter acre lot in Arlington and we laugh about it.
Reecon..what does he teach. My son went there and it is a fine school..fine and dandy. Yep, I'm also the maid and pool boy.
Arkey: Your Zillow/RE broker price doesn't match the Redfin price (about 15k difference). Out of curiosity, which one is lagging the other?
Very nice home, but an impossible commute for me to Tyson's from way out there. Something similar in my neck of the woods lists for 900k to a mil. :(
Good luck, Arkey.
Thanks everybody for your well wishes. Jeremy..that zillow is old..my new agent is Patrick Saltz and his price is the correct price or the lower price. I tried to delete it but I can't, it's a realtor feed. We have been off the market 3 months and it looks like that popped up about a month ago. He had a professional take pictures but they aren't up yet..world of difference between his circle of realtors and the other. The 2 that have shown already are definitely mover and shakers. I have high hopes that this time around I'll get serious buyers looking and not lookie loos.
"Funny how you ask me to concede I am wrong on a future event."
The Anonymous, that technique has a long tradition here.
Many, many arguments were won in the minds of some who closed with, "the wave will come inside the beltway." or "the ratio of price to rent or price to salary will cause prices to fall."
About 2 years ago, the concept of the immunozone started and has evolved into Immunington and Immundria
Lance ran away because as things were playing out there wasn't much more to say. Recently, the discussion changed to techniques for buying, negotiation, moving companies, and congratulations for buying the dream home.
The last great hope of housing doom is that the world economy collapses into the abyss. That could happen but it doesn't seem likely.
I don't know about your target area @J@, but when I look at Redfin with 6 months of sales turned on, the homes I see are surrounded by sold homes with much cheaper prices (~100k). That to me says that yes, the bubble is finally popping in nicer Fairfax County (Oakton, Vienna, Tysons) and the only homes left are the ones with stubborn "bubble wishing price" sellers.
Don't bother Jeremy, @J@ (previously known as KH) has been on this blog a long time trying to insist that her neighborhood is special and that its price drops aren't real. She could be the poster child for delusional sellers.
Shoot, the Lance she is referring to finally ran off when his statements became sufficiently absurd that he had become a running joke. At the time he left he was claiming that "90% of the region is holding steady or climbing" if that tells you anything, and that was in 2008...
Meshell
"You linked to a house in NE by Gallaudet in the other thread. I had a few clinic clients who lived in that neighborhood (Trinidad or near Trinidad) in law school. I refused to go there to see clients in daylight without my 6'4 boyfriend as bodyguard. I would call that the WORST neighborhood in DC. "
i don't know when you were in law school,
but yes in the 90's gallaudet was real rough
but it's a lot better now.
I went with my Girl and she's small town white girl
and she was comfortable with the neighborhood.
Good Luck Arkey!!!
I think the move-up market has heated up considerably, with those who have gotten their old home under contract and are now scrambling to buy their dream home. Way more than half the sales are NOT foreclosures or shorts, so that's a lot of fresh buyers out there with equity to spend, good luck!
Thanks Cara..I appreciate it..the open house went extremely well..they started getting here early..before the schedule open and stayed till after it was scheduled over. More than one stayed for over an hour..one a hour and half..of course I turned the pinball machine on..its really alot of fun ( Its a Tommy..Pinball Wizard)..and..on a day like today that pool looked good..
Regarding the gentrification debate. I agree and disagree with CRT's contention that people who would have been white suburbanites have decided to move in.
Think of this why, despite all these new white people in DC, are there no more "good DC public elementary schools" in 2009 than there were in 1998?
My answer: Because all the additional white people are childless or have children five years or younger.
I don't think a lot of white people moved in and said to heck with the suburbs I want city life. I think (as I've noted many times before) a lot of people are marrying later, having kids later, not having any kids, etc and this increases the size of the pool of people who always were more okay with urban life than suburban life.
Despite the fact that Dupont Circle is now pretty heavily white and yuppie, the local elementary school is still poor and mostly black. That local elementary school btw is the one that the Obamas decided not to send Malia and Sasha to.
One other note -- I think for a lot of people the notion that their mayor would be Marion Barry was a deal breaker. I have no evidence of this other than that in the 1980s and 1990s a lot of people found him ridiculous and it was a national laughing stock that he was mayor of DC. DC residents electing someone respectable like Anthony Williams I think was important to a lot of people but I may be overestimating that factor.
Jeremy,
That to me says that yes, the bubble is finally popping in nicer Fairfax County (Oakton, Vienna, Tysons) and the only homes left are the ones with stubborn "bubble wishing price" sellers.
That is why I was surprised the other day that housebuyer was willing to pay 30% over assessment for a home in Dunn Loring. I agree with you that the bubble is slowly popping in the fanciest parts of Fairfax County but it is. The fact that some sellers won staring contests with buyers in 2007 through the present does not change what I see as an ultimate victory for buyers as those seller wins are few and far between. Most of the homes asking 2006-07 prices no matter how well regarded the Ffx neighborhood seem to be sitting there whenever I look at redfin.
oops ignore that "but it is" typo
Hi folks. I have some Maryland open house reviews up.
http://marylandbubblefallout.blogspot.com/
TBW-
The assessment has been off for the houses for some time. I don't really know why. I was willing to pay 30% more than the assessment, but this was 20-25% less than the places were selling for in 06. So I was not paying anything close to peak prices. 20-25% off is what most places near the metro have been selling for.
It was a little weird most places near it had their assessment fall 10% last year, but its assessment fell over 30%. In some ways it is a good thing because taxes are lower. Also its assessment was lower than TH that were way smaller, older, and less nice. Either way I am bailing on the place in order for something that is less nice, but 20% cheaper that is selling at tax assessment.
"I don't know about your target area "
Immunington and Immundria
"Well, lets be clear, these areas have seen declines - albeit very slight. "
TBW, I agree with you on all points and would also add that there are lots of empty nesters who have decided to move into the city - they want all the restaurants and other recreation of the city, don't need good schools personally, they have the $$$, and they want access to metro in case driving is or becomes a problem later. I know people who fit all of your categories, and some of them specifically mentioned that Williams (and Fenty) were big factors in their decisions. It gave them hope that the city would progress rather than regress.
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