Wednesday, June 24, 2009

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 6/24/2009

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.

81 comments:

Cara said...

The Economist:
Appetite for risk returns


LOW interest rates are intended to ease the burden on debtors, discourage saving, encourage spending and thereby revive the economy. But they also have a distorting effect on asset markets. By reducing the cost of speculation, they encourage bubbles.

So although it is good news that some indicators (such as the cost of bank borrowing) have improved, risk appetites also need monitoring closely. The “search for yield” which marked the boom of 2005, 2006 and early 2007 seems to have started again. Retail investors, disappointed with measly returns on savings accounts, are piling into corporate-bond funds. One British manager is reportedly raking in £1 billion ($1.6 billion) a month.
...

After all, the problems that existed at the start of this crisis have not gone away. Delinquencies on American mortgage loans are still rising: the seasonally adjusted rate in the first quarter was higher across all categories. European banks may still need to write down another $283 billion of assets this year and next, according to the European Central Bank. Worst of all, Capital Economics says American consumer debt is more than 130% of disposable income, double its level in the 1980s. Reducing this ratio will require widespread defaults, rapid inflation or a prolonged period of higher savings rates. None of those would be particularly good news for the markets. The crisis took a long time to build up. It will not disappear as a result of one good quarter.

spunky said...

"The crisis took a long time to build up. It will not disappear as a result of one good quarter."


That about sums it all up !!!!!!

shamrock said...

New home sales dropped 0.6% and median price dropped from $229k to $221k ( sourced from tv ).

Jeff B said...

Particularly if that 'good quarter' contained numerous cases where companies simply pulled the numbers in their reports out of thin air. The banks will have to pay the piper at some point.

Cara said...

for those of you that don't want to wait for CR's coverage of new home sales here we have it from the horses mouth.

NEW RESIDENTIAL SALES IN MAY 2009
Sales of new one-family houses in May 2009 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 342,000, according to estimates
released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.6
percent (±17.8%)* below the revised April rate of 344,000 and is 32.8 percent (±10.9%) below the May 2008 estimate of
509,000.
The median sales price of new houses sold in May 2009 was $221,600; the average sales price was $274,300. The
seasonally adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of May was 292,000. This represents a supply of 10.2
months at the current sales rate.

Cara said...

Looking through the report quickly, the drop in sales is statistically insignificant for the MoM, but significant at well above the 90% level for YoY.
May 2009 from May 2008 -32.8%
90% Confidence Interval4 ± 10.9

The MoM price drop is probably in the noise.

What may be notable is on page 4 the steadily increasing median number of months for sale since completion. It's now over 11 months. This suggests that despite the drastically reduced building activity there is still quite the overhang in NEW HOME inventory, not just existing home inventory. (although this may or may not be the case in any given portion of the DC area).

Cara said...

Hey Robert,

Now you can sort the news just for things that confirm a positive outlook for Housing, check out newssift:

News sift Housing Market Positive

Cara said...

This is a fun toy

If we delete the sentiment we find out that 4155 "neutral" articles out number both the 1464 positive and 2691 negative articles.

You can also limit it to Washington DC.

If only I had been tracking this to tell if this is the start of a contrarian indicator.

paKa said...

Here's a fun WTF listing for you. Can anyone provide an explanation for the price history?

Chastleton

Cara said...

paKa

that's bizarre. Maybe it's the bucket listing for anything that goes for sale in that building? Anielarke?

tiredbubblewatcher said...

I am shocked that Cara started the comments instead of @J@ or Robert. It's about time.

Cara said...

tbw,

It always used to be me, and hey I'd already been at work for over an hour by the time I ran into anything worth posting, so it's not like I didn't give them a fighting chance. Maybe Harriet banned them. Seems unlikely.

tiredbubblewatcher said...

Going back to yesterday's bank interest comment I have always found this blog helpful:

http://bankdeals.blogspot.com/

Many of the good deals it finds are local or credit unions but occasionally those local banks are in VA/DC/MD. And there are plenty of national banks that provide 2+% interest.

Scott said...

Good to see a post from a favored source of mine--The Economist.

"Reducing this ratio will require widespread defaults, rapid inflation or a prolonged period of higher savings rates"

Which do you think we'll have, by the end?

As for Chastleton, that's crazy! 45% decrease, 74% price increase, 45% decrease, and 50% decrease all in the space of 3 months?

TIMING IS EVERYTHING, apparently.

Maybe the owner is the lead character from the movie Memento?

@J@ said...

From TBW's link:

" 4.01% Reward Checking Account at Mutual First Federal Credit Union in Nebraska - Local Only

* 4.01% APY on balances up to $25,000

* 1.01% APY on the portion of the balance over $25,000
* 0.10% base rate if qualifications are not met
"

and

"My last post on this bank was in 2007 when their 7-month CD special was 5.50% APY (the good old days). They were also offering high rates on their Index Savings Account. It's interesting to note their Index Savings Account now only pays a top rate of 0.15% (and that requires $250K!)."

Thank you.

Good find. Not everyone has the same requirements.

Scott said...

Hey that newssift is cool--it allows those of us on this blog who need to closed-mindedly hold to one side of the argument about the future, to easily find their supporting material and avoid any counter-evidence.

Here's an interest article I found in the negative list for DC, although I don't know why--

http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2009/05/12/home-prices-and-jobless-rates-by-metro-area/

Seems to quite clearly show that you can't rely only on job market health to set house price changes.

Not that anyone on here would push an argument that you could, or anything! :)

tiredbubblewatcher said...

@J@,

I think everyone here is intelligent enough to look at the blog I linked and see that there are banks providing interest in the 2% range (for all deposit amounts) and that you cherrypicked from the blog.

tiredbubblewatcher said...

Scott,

Interesting link. Looks like all the Texas markets are doing quite well comparatively speaking.

I did not know Atlanta real estate was hurting so much.

Cara said...

Scott,
"Reducing this ratio will require widespread defaults, rapid inflation or a prolonged period of higher savings rates"

Which do you think we'll have, by the end?

Well, we're working pretty hard on the "widespread defaults" angle already, higher savings rates are true now but may not be prolonged enough, and the fed is doing it's best to merely balance the loss of private borrowing not exceed it, so I don't see rapid inflation (i.e. greater than 3-4%) unless for some reason they choose that route. So my guess is for a little bit of each, dominated by defaults, and the ratio not righting itself for a long time.

Isn't news sift great?? I think it's hilarious, but some degree of negativity seeps into some of the positive links and vice versa.

Leroy said...

"After all, the problems that existed at the start of this crisis have not gone away."

That is one of the facts of this bubble/recession too few in the media or government seem to have grasped.

There are major structural problems in our economy, and in the world's economy right now.

Temporarily throwing mountains of money at the problem and cutting interest rates to zero will ease the pain, but it won't solve the problems.

It is not possible to blow a never ending series of bubbles to avoid paying the piper indefinitely.

Leroy said...

"Hey Robert,

Now you can sort the news just for things that confirm a positive outlook for Housing, check out newssift:"


Yeah, that is just what we need...

Leroy said...

"I think everyone here is intelligent enough to look at the blog I linked and see that there are banks providing interest in the 2% range (for all deposit amounts) and that you cherrypicked from the blog."


Those banks don't count if KH/@J@ can't examine their books and personally vouch for their stability.

Cara said...

Leroy,

chuckling. I say this just levels the playing field since we already had patrick.net to sort the news for us.

Maybe the pumpers can go bask in the glory of the confirmatory news and leave us to our nattering nabobs of negativity.

tiredbubblewatcher said...

Leroy,

Let's hope Christina Romer's view becomes the administration's view (or Bernanke's view):

For Bubble-Free Growth Look to the 60s

And then the vision for beyond: “In a bubble-free economy, more of our output will take the form of things that raise productivity, rather than investment goods that turn out to be worthless and consumption goods,” Romer says. “Our saving will be higher, so that domestic investment will be financed more by domestic saving, with the result that the fraction of our output that is ours to keep will be greater than before. And, the reorientation of production to investments in the people, products, and energy of the future means we will be able to produce more with less pollution in the years to come.”

Robert said...

It always used to be me, and hey I'd already been at work for over an hour by the time I ran into anything worth posting, so it's not like I didn't give them a fighting chance. Maybe Harriet banned them. Seems unlikely.

I told Leroy that I would let him post first.

Newssift is cool, thx, but not interested in national housing statistics.

John Fontain said...

paKa, I think Cara is right. The MLS is getting confused by other properties listed at the same address. Here is another unit for sale in the same building. Notice the price history matches the unit you linked to:

http://franklymls.com/DC7045335

tiredbubblewatcher said...

Cara,

Someone once informed me the quote actually was nattering nabobs of negativism.

It's not intuitive because negativity sounds better (at least to modern ears.)

Cara said...

Robert,

You can limit it to articles with relevance to DC, (or any other region you like).

tiredbubblewatcher said...

There's Robert. I was beginning to think he took an impromptu trip to Austin, TX to scope out investment properties.

Cara said...

tbw,

I think you're right. and I also can't remember if it was actually about the press or not. AP History is a long time ago now...

And Robert, you're right, I did steal Leroy's first posting slot. Sorry Leroy.

Leroy said...

"“In a bubble-free economy, more of our output will take the form of things that raise productivity, rather than investment goods that turn out to be worthless and consumption goods,” Romer says. “Our saving will be higher, so that domestic investment will be financed more by domestic saving, with the result that the fraction of our output that is ours to keep will be greater than before. And, the reorientation of production to investments in the people, products, and energy of the future means we will be able to produce more with less pollution in the years to come.”"


Sounds good... but I couldn't actually identify a plan anywhere in there.

It is easy to say you want a nice sustainable, prosperous, economy with low debt and blah blah blah, but the hard part is getting us there from here.

tiredbubblewatcher said...

Sorry if this has been discussed before but did people know that Virginia allowed selected localities to have an income tax of up to 1%? I was shocked. The City of Alexandria even did a study on how much it would raise:

Estimated Local Tax Revenue

Looks like the odds of this ever happening though are very, very slim. As the memo points out it has to be approved by referendum, only for transit, has a five year limit, and has to be a flat tax (no income brackets).

The Anonymous said...

"Cara said...
Leroy,

chuckling. I say this just levels the playing field since we already had patrick.net to sort the news for us.

Maybe the pumpers can go bask in the glory of the confirmatory news and leave us to our nattering nabobs of negativity."

Im always amazed at Patrick.net's ability to find negative stories. A year ago when everything was negative it was easy. Now with some negative some positivie, it makes his "all negative all the time" outlook that much harder to maintain. Yet somehow, he seems to find enough stories to fit the bill!

Cara said...

tbw,

" Revenues
generated from the above mentioned local income tax, can be used for transportation
purposes only, and may not be used to reduce other sources of transportation funding. "

This seems like another strong reason it won't happen. But local income taxes are all over the place in MD and freaking substantial too. My rent increased coming down here but my income tax went down by more.

anonymous,

Well, the negative hits outnumber the positive hits by quite a bit still. (2600 to 1400) And people do email him stories. Maybe we should tell him about news sift.

tiredbubblewatcher said...

Leroy,

I agree it would have been nice to have a concrete plan, but I just feel a little better that at least Romer does not have this philosophy:

Recession Plagued Nation Demands New Bubble

The Anonymous said...

"Well, the negative hits outnumber the positive hits by quite a bit still. (2600 to 1400) And people do email him stories. Maybe we should tell him about news sift."

I guess what Im sayin is im a bit surprised his outlook hasnt changed one bit. If the score is now 2600 - 1400 (which sounds about right to me as its clear there is more pain ahead), im just amazed he still posts 2600 - 0.

Its funny, he posts many things to combat the "green shoots" and "bottom" calls, yet if his site was your only source of news, you wouldnt have ever known anyone was calling bottom or green shoots in the first place because those stories never made it to his blog.

If this is the bottom, I wonder how much longer he can go on as if its still far far away?

tiredbubblewatcher said...

If Harvard is forced to make these cuts, one only wonders what GMU, AU, UMD, G'town, GWU, (etc) are required to do:

Harvard University announced 275 job cuts on Tuesday, the latest cost-cutting measure at the world's richest university after the financial crisis triggered big losses in its multibillion-dollar endowment.

Another 40 staff were offered reduced work hours.

Harvard has also taken other steps to cut costs, including keeping salaries flat for more than 9,000 faculty and staff in the 2009-10 academic year.

More than 500 staff opted for voluntary early retirement under a program offered earlier this year, said Harvard President Drew Faust.

Full Article

Cara said...

anonymous,

I think patrick's based in CA, where there's still a long way to go. They have more Alt-A, more I/O more of everything bad that will hit the middle to high end market like a hammer now/soon.

So, given his target market? I'm not surprised at all. The bottom is a long long way away there, with the possible exception of the bottom rung, but even there with job losses and population losses the bottom rung may still drop further.

Leroy said...

"Im always amazed at Patrick.net's ability to find negative stories. "

I wouldn't know, that isn't a site I read on anything like a regular basis.

Scott said...

"Well, we're working pretty hard on the "widespread defaults" angle already"

Ya, I'll agree to that observation and take the others under advisement--but the core question is, can the Fed/congress/president thread the needle and avoid igniting another bubble while also not popping the recovery too soon?

I'm debt and RE free and almost all in cash so I'd like nothing better than deflation IF I can keep by job and pay rate. Well, one thing I'd like better is "instant" deflation in house prices, not waiting another 2 to 6 years.

But that 5-sector deflation article says food is up 3% in a year, and I think health care up multiple percent. Not MY idea of deflation. Meanwhile, prices for DESIRABLE cars are not really falling, and some DESIRABLE real estate is falling only gently.

Scott said...

"You can limit it to articles with relevance to DC, (or any other region you like)."


I'll correct your typo there--

"You can limit it to articles with relevance to DC, (or any other religion you like)."

The Anonymous said...

Cara lets put it this way - when the bottom comes, be it in 2009 or in 2019 do you think Patrick.net is going to in any way recognize or acknowledge it?

@J@ said...

"everyone here is intelligent"

Thank you.

Robert, he's talking about you too.

contrarian said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Cara said...

the anonymous,

Patrick might. But I think only if his target rent-to-own ratio is reached in his favorite city. Since that may never happen, he may never acknowledge that the bottom is in, because the bottom would be irrelevant to him if renting is still the better financial choice.

contrarian said...

When the Daily Sentiment (DSI) is high (bullish) on a given Index, you know it is giving a bearish (sell) signal.

Sentiment is a contrary indicator.

The same goes for newspaper articles. When newspapers are printing mostly positive articles, you know the market (in this case, housing) has further to fall.

When all you read is doom and gloom about housing, it will indicate the bottom is near.

The Anonymous said...

"Cara said...Since that may never happen, he may never acknowledge that the bottom is in"

Thats my guess too. I feel bad for anyone who goes there seeking to find evidence of the actual bottom regardless of whether or not it makes sense to Patrick.

housebuyer said...

Contrarian-

You must have been reading different articles than I saw. Everything I saw in 2008 particularly the end of 2008 said housing will continue going down if you buy you will lose money...

As a side note did you see Buffet said there was no risk of deflation? I am curious if you would use him as a contrarian indicator or whether his 50+ years of solid returns is enough data to say he knows what he is doing?

NoVAwatcher said...

TBW: I don't think GMU faculty/staff have had raises in 18 (or is it 24?) months. There was a stink about their President getting a raise last fall when no one else did. Also, IIRC, their endowment is tiny (I think that was one of the many reasons people were critical about their president getting a raise).

Cara said...

Dude,

Is Chase trying to run itself out of business?

Credit cards are pulling a bank run on consumers, great....

Chase minimum payments go from 2% to 5%

Why they were ever as low as 2% is another question, but it wasn't actually causing negative amoritization for most of these customers. This is gonna sting. My guess, they're trying to trick people into moving their existing balances away from Chase, thereby paying Chase off in full...
Rather than calling in to get their debt reduced. They've gotta act fast before that meme is absorbed by the population.

contrarian said...

The Anonymous said...

Cara lets put it this way - when the bottom comes, be it in 2009 or in 2019 do you think Patrick.net is going to in any way recognize or acknowledge it?



I have corresponded with Patrick on several occasions. I don't think Patrick really cares whether the market is in a bubble (renter's market) or if the bubble has popped (buyer's market).

I have reason to think he will acknowledge when it is a buyer's market again.

Cara said...

contrarian,

so, we can nominate you to pass on the fabulous news sift thing to patrick then, yeah?

contrarian said...

housebuyer said...

Contrarian-

As a side note did you see Buffet said there was no risk of deflation? I am curious if you would use him as a contrarian indicator or whether his 50+ years of solid returns is enough data to say he knows what he is doing?


housebuyer,

You have to take what Buffet says with a grain of salt these days. A little over a year ago, he said everything in the economy was fine. He then made many investment decisions where he lost (or will lose) substantial amounts of money.

He also said the worst was behind us and it wasn't and isn't.

cara,

His published e-mail is: p@patrick.net

Send it and ask him to post it tonight and he usually will. He appreciates receiving recommended links from other people.

tiredbubblewatcher said...

I don't think people will be debating if there's a bottom when it occurs.

One of two things will happen:

(1) Prices stagnate, 95% of us will say we have an L shaped recovery and a while before prices go up again. Robert will be in the 5% saying V.

(2) Prices bottom, then start increasing. We will debate whether it's V or W. Robert will obviously be V. Where the rest of us go I don't know. If the bottom occurs in 2014 I could very well see a V recovery because the gov't delayed the bottom for so long that it made an L into a V. But if the bottom hits in 2010 or 2011 I'm guessing it will be an L as we wait for unemployment to get back down and income growth to come back.

contrarian said...

As a follow up on the economy, in February we had a Dow Theory Sell Signal down into the March lows.

When the stock market came out of the March bottom, the Transports did not reach highs in conjunction with the Dow Jones, which translates into a bearish Dow Theory Non-confirmation signal.

On top of that, we have had the largest Insider Selling in years.

I'll repeat what I said a few weeks ago. In the months ahead, many months from now, I anticipate much lower numbers in the stock market. That's deflationary, not inflationary.

tiredbubblewatcher said...

contrarian,

I just have trouble putting faith in the notion that the stock downturn not a huge portion hysteria. I think it overcorrected. It would be interesting to see what percentage of sellers were 55+ (believing they needed to sell right then to salvage retirement) and what percentage of losses come from banks becoming penny stocks.

The economy certainly is weaker but weak enough that the stock market should have gone down 50%? I just don't see it. Why should we be back down to late 90s levels?

I don't feel as confident though in these comments though as I do with the housing market (and quality of TC Williams HS.)

Leroy said...

"Is Chase trying to run itself out of business?"

Wow, after reading the complaints in that link I find myself wondering who the heck these people are.

"I received a noticed in the mail that my credit card payment was going up from 180 monthly to 435. I have a very low fixed interest rate on both cards and since they couldn't raise the rate they raised the payment to 5% of the balance. I am retired and this means that I will be not be eating very much in the future."



"Like Jack of Texas, I have 40,000 in Credit Card Debt with Chase at 3.99%, which by contract they cannot change. Now they increase the minimum payment from 2% to 5%, arbitrarily and without explanation. This increases my required payment from 800 to 2000, which will be impossible for me to do."

etc etc etc

What is especially puzzling to me is how many of these people somehow believe that because Chase took bailout money they shouldn't be able to raise the minimum payment.

I wonder if anyone has ever considered putting a floor on minimum payments. Basically mandate that credit cards set a minimum payment that will pay the debt off in no less than 2 years or something. That at least would make it harder for them to lure the unsophisticated(nicest term I can come up with) into becoming perpetual debt slaves.

The Anonymous said...

"housebuyer said...
Contrarian-

You must have been reading different articles than I saw. Everything I saw in 2008 particularly the end of 2008 said housing will continue going down if you buy you will lose money... "

Yep - if that was the contrarian sign, the bottom was in 6 months ago. I just didnt want to bring this up because im sure if there were 1,000 articles written back then, Contrarian will find the 1 that said "housing will go up" to prove that it just wasnt bearish enough. For him it must be 1000 out of 1000, and he will say we arent there --- yet.

Cara said...

Leroy,

The closest thing I could find easily was:
MSNBC key provisions of the credit card reform bill

Paying off on old terms
Card issuers can’t change the terms for repaying a balance, except that the issuer may give the cardholder either:

* Five years to pay off the outstanding balance at the old rate; or
* An increased minimum payment that has no more than twice as much of a contribution to paying down the balance as the old minimum payment.


Sounds to me as if this minimum payment hike is just about exactly in line with the new rules, in that the increased amount of principle payment is about twice the current amount.


These stories are bound to be biased towards those who thought paying the minimum payment was a good idea, and a reasonable method for getting out of debt. There are a couple of people with statements like, "on the upside, my balance will be paid off in 2 years" Which is not technically true (1) because they're not counting accumulating interest and (2) they'd need to keep up this higher payment as that 5% minimum will keep getting smaller...

The balances these people were carrying and only paying the minimum on were stunning though. I think Chase is probably "right" to up the minimums now and get back as much as they can from whomever they can, because anyone who is only paying 2% monthly on a 20,000 balance, well, you might as well write that off now.

Robert said...

Anonymous said...I guess what Im sayin is im a bit surprised his outlook hasnt changed one bit. If the score is now 2600 - 1400 (which sounds about right to me as its clear there is more pain ahead), im just amazed he still posts 2600 - 0.

Its funny, he posts many things to combat the "green shoots" and "bottom" calls, yet if his site was your only source of news, you wouldnt have ever known anyone was calling bottom or green shoots in the first place because those stories never made it to his blog.

If this is the bottom, I wonder how much longer he can go on as if its still far far away?


Gloom and Doom is a profitable business, always has been. The economy could come roaring back, but Patrick.net won't believe any of it. Look for him to write a book for his readers to cash in on his website. He may believe it, he may not, but there's always a niche out there that eat that stuff up. Contrarian is lining the pockets of those prophets of doom.

tiredbubblewatcher said...

Robert,

I think there was more money to be made with housing boosterism. More realtor cuts, more contractor projects (and higher rates), etc.

Don't forget NAR Lereah wrote books like "Are You Missing the Housing Boom?"

Robert said...

TBW,

I'm bullish on Texas. Poor man's Washington DC.

Thanks for formatting your links!

(1) Prices stagnate, 95% of us will say we have an L shaped recovery and a while before prices go up again. Robert will be in the 5% saying V.

Uh, the V is already in place in our region - sub $500k. It's over. It's now fact. Put your 'L' away.

Robert said...

This needed to be repeated...

You must have been reading different articles than I saw. Everything I saw in 2008 particularly the end of 2008 said housing will continue going down if you buy you will lose money... "

Yep - if that was the contrarian sign, the bottom was in 6 months ago.


BINGO!

Robert said...

I think there was more money to be made with housing boosterism. More realtor cuts, more contractor projects (and higher rates), etc.

Don't forget NAR Lereah wrote books like "Are You Missing the Housing Boom?"


Works both ways, agree.

Robert said...

I guess everybody went home. I was just getting started...

tiredbubblewatcher said...

Robert,

You are wrong as always. Texas has tons of rich areas:

100 Richest Zip Codes

I spy six Texas zip codes before you get to McLean and five before you get to Potomac.

Robert said...

That data is pathetic.

anielarke said...

The Chastleton is a co-op rather than a condo. In a co-op, you do not own real estate but shares in a co-operative society. Those shares correspond to particular units. You have to pay the mortgage for the unit (if you borrowed to buy it) and a portion of the underlying mortgage for the building's common areas. In this case the agent is saying the portion of the underlying mortgage assigned to this unit is $73,380.13 and the monthly cost for that underlying mortgage is $570.83. On top of that you have a monthly maintenance fee of $437 -- so you are paying over $1000 a month for the underlying mortgage and the maintenance fee. I think some of the agents are advertising the price with the underlying mortgage (this agent is doing that and says so) and some agents are advertising without the underlying mortgage so the price is lower. Co-ops are a little harder to sell in this area because of the difficulty in obtaining financing, having to pass co-op review committees, etc., etc., so the housing downturn may have had a bigger effect on co-ops because buyers were able to purchase condos at similar prices and with fewer hassles.

The major co-op waiting game in Virginia is for River Place Co-op in Rosslyn. It is built on leased land, minutes from Key Bridge and with spectacular city views. The land lease expires in 2049. Whatever will happen then??

@J@ said...

"The land lease expires in 2049. Whatever will happen then??"

It's spelled out in the land lease contract, there is no mystery.

In some cases, the land owner repo's the building and boots everyone out. There are other variations.

Two places in the U.S. play the land lease game, Baltimore and Honolulu.

Land . power . money. I love this stuff.

@J@ said...

"I was just getting started..."

Then, please, crank it up.

@J@ said...

"I anticipate much lower numbers in the stock market."

A bold prediction. I like it.

Please quantify.

DJIA 7,500 ?

DJIA 6,000 ?

DJIA 4,500 ?

DJIA 3,000 ?

And when?

This fall?

Next summer?

Thank you.

anielarke said...

@J@: Despie the involvement of the things you love: land, money and power, every party to the land lease contract will strictly adhere to the terms as spelled out in 1949 when Arlington was a sleepy blue collar town and Rosslyn was where the junk yards and auto body shops were located. All parties (now most likely their heirs) will do exactly what the land lease dictates without a hint of controvery, much less litigation. Yeah, right, believe that and I have some leased land to sell you in Hawaii and Baltimore.

contrarian said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Leroy said...

"I guess everybody went home. I was just getting started..."

Don't worry, I am confident we can all imagine what you would say.

Leroy said...

"You are wrong as always. Texas has tons of rich areas:"

Part of the "it's different here" theory is that that particular housing pumper's area is simply the very most special and unique.

What the heck does "poor man's Washington DC" mean anyways?

I mean you are comparing an entire state, with multiple large cities, each of which has one of the stronger economies in the country ...to a single city that Robert happens to live in.

pat said...

i watch the case-shiller index to see what is a rational index.

@J@ said...

"All parties (now most likely their heirs) will do exactly what the land lease dictates without a hint of controvery, much less litigation."

Are you suggesting that someone who inherited granny's seventy-five grand of a lease-hold condo apartment is going to mount a credible legal offense against the corporation that owns the forty million dollars of underlying land? In some cases the corporation is a non-profit, the endowment for a hospital, university, or a local charity.

This is American and anyone can sue for what-ever they wish, just as any angry web-troll can hump anyone's posts. The lessee is unlikely to prevail though. Mostly the courts have upheld property rights and long standing contracts.

(You earned a gold *. I am teasing and having a little fun, just so that the oddly literal-minded and humorless understand.)

I better fire the woman who runs the convenient local bank so I can get another 0.35% off an Internet website.

Thank you. ... today's going to be a great day....

contrarian said...

Fees Likely To Double on Dulles Toll Road by 2012

@J@ said...

"Fees Likely To Double on Dulles Toll Road by 2012"

I believe this is on the order of twenty-five or fifty cents more per exit.

That means what to RE or people going to $500/day jobs in DC?

Mr. Contrarian, please understand that generally, I enjoy your posts and I consider myself a fan of doom and gloom and occasionally will invest in counter-trend venues.

I believe that tolls and gas prices can affect housing price distribution and was one reason we have the immunozone. I don't think fifty cents will change the calculus much. Time is a bigger factor, at least for me.

By the way, I had raspberry-chocolate at the Dairy Godmother last night. It was delicious.

Thank you.

NoVAwatcher said...

"That means what to RE or people going to $500/day jobs in DC?"
----
Exactly. Just as a rise in gas prices should not cause folks to pay double in Arlington for what they could get in Sterling for half a much.

Robert said...

Part of the "it's different here" theory is that that particular housing pumper's area is simply the very most special and unique.

It's different here. Our area very special and unique.

What the heck does "poor man's Washington DC" mean anyways?

Makes more sense than a, "rich man's Washington DC", doesn't it?

I mean you are comparing an entire state, with multiple large cities, each of which has one of the stronger economies in the country ...to a single city that Robert happens to live in.

You should be happy, at least I didn't compare it to the Atlantic Ocean or the Moon. BTW, I'm bullish Moon property, it is "very most special."