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Friday, May 8, 2009
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50 comments:
A nuanced take on the spring rally from the housing wire: Spring selling shows strength but the jury is out until the traditionally weak months roll around.
"Listing prices rose at the fastest rate in the California markets with San Jose up 3.7%, Los Angeles up 3.2% and San Diego up 2.8% in April. Prices in 18 markets are now showing three months of sequential listing price increases.
...
And and one of the most important questions is whether inventory growth will remain restrained — as it fell in 15 of 26 major markets in April, according to the report — or whether pent-up supply will come on to the market in succeeding months.
“There is no surer way to snuff out a recovery in housing prices than a flood of inventory that overwhelms demand,” says Michael Simonsen, CEO of Altos Research.
A recent report by Zillow.com shows one-third of homeowners indicate they would like to put their home on the market if conditions improve, which presents some fear that shadow inventory will inundate the market. “By our calculations, this could translate into as many as 20 million homes that could seep into the market as prices stabilize, maintaining a constant stream of supply that far outpaces demand, thus keeping prices flat,” Zillow said in a press release.
"
an exercise in the obvious but it does a good job of pointing out many angles and backing them with some poll numbers.
Very interesting article, Cara, thanks. This is the first time I have seen any estimate of how many would-be sellers on the sidelines might be out there, although I would guess that the 1/3 would vary quite a bit depending on exactly how the question was asked (e.g., "if you conditions improved to the point that you could get your full asking price and you found your dream home to buy, would you put your house on the market?", vs. "if the unemployment rate goes down by 1 percentage point, would you put your house on the market?" etc.)
yeah, it seemed particularly relevant to yesterday's discussion of when were everyone else who wants to move was going to finally list?
1/3 is pretty loosey-goosey and as you said strongly dependent on the question's wording and room for interpretation by the respondant.
This is the kind of thing that discourages me: http://franklymls.com/FX7044152
Boring, mid-50s rambler in Mclean. Foreclosure, but looks to be in good condition. Listed at $514k, and is basically under contract (per the comments section) in 9 days.
The previous sale was for $429k in late '03. So, while we have probably backed off of 05/06 prices, this foreclosure is still almost $100k above mid-bubble prices.
Fred, another way to look at it is that the '09 sale price (assuming it went for asking), is 85/429 = 20% higher than the '03 sale price. Which is barely or perhaps not even keeping up with inflation. Granted, that's still doing better than any stocks that were purchased in '03, but it's not a great return, and with interest rates lower than they were in '03 and factoring in the $8k, today's buyer might have close to the same monthly payment as the '03 buyer.
On 2nd thought, for a >$500k house the $8k might not be a factor with the $150k income limit, unless there is a large downpayment.
Everyone,
Let's not forget that it is spring. People temporarily lose their mind with respect to real estate this time of year. In another month or two things will settle back down.
Fred,
I think part of the issue with the price is that most of the value is probably in the land. People expect to pay less for a house in foreclosure, because of uncertainties (or sometime certainties) about the condition. Not so much with the lot.
I noticed that this is selling "as is". I'd bet that the current offer is from someone who wants to do a teardown, and doesn't care if its a boring mid-50s rambler. Go to the aerial view, zoom out and look at the surrounding areas. It looks like there are a lot of recent or in process teardowns and renovations. This is a nice lot in a nice area, and even post-bubble (or at least at this stage of the post-bubble) it can support expensive homes.
To continue with RatChoicer's excellent question from yesterday's bucket:
I think I'm in a weird situation in that I'm just observing what's happening instead of trying to predict what will happen. I don't know if we're near the bottom right now in, say, Arlington County. I wouldn't be surprised if median prices dropped another 20% from here but I also wouldn't be surprised if we stabilized where we are now.
All that's important to me is my own perception of value. I don't consider any house in Arlington County right now to be a good value. Prices are seriously out of whack with incomes considering what you get for your money around here. So we continue to rent - if the market goes down we'll probably buy a home in this area. If the market stabilizes near this level we'll move somewhere else.
If the market were rational I would be more interested in predicting what would happen in the future. But I don't think that's the case.
Chicago's North ShoreI don't know if anyone else is from the North Shore of Chicago on here, but if you are, you must read this.
Last night, I noticed our sale shows up among Redfin's recent sales. That made it more final and real, somehow. It's going to take a lot more rocking on the front porch before I believe we really bought our home.
Harriet, do you remember the house you showed me, on five acres out on 12010 Valley View in Nokesville, with a pretty sunroom? I went and saw it, even though it had no basement and was not terribly big (4BR/2.5BA/2800sqft)? I was very curious to see what it sold for, because it assessed for $344K this year, but they were asking in the mid-$500Ks, and the realtor called me almost every day, assuring me that she had found a great comp, so she was certain the house would appraise for the asking price, but if it didn't, the owners were willing to work with the appraised value.
Well, I saw it sold for just about asking price, $530K. This floored me--$200K over assessed value?! Now, it was a horse property, with a beautiful barn and paddocks, and the house was well-maintained and cozy, but IMHO, that sold price added that house to the ever-longer list of houses I've seen sell for almost absurd prices this spring. It's really like people have lost their heads.
It begs the question: did we get a fantastic price (relatively speaking) for our 11-acre, 5000sqft+ house right by a closer-in VRE stop, or did those buyers fall madly in love with their house and get taken for a ride?
Also, in my daily updates, I have noticed three trends:
#1 High-tier ($500K+) properties dropping their asking prices
#2 Mid-tier ($200K-$400K) properties going under contract quickly
#3 Contracts on all tiers falling through, and properties coming back to active status
#3 happens more and more all the time...
Tabitha,
I think long-term you got a great deal. I also think that the other folks overpaid for that other property. So, a little from column A, a little from column B?
On the low-tier front, #3 is a huge factor. You wouldn't think so, because a lot of the deals are cash investors. But these things are falling in and out of contract fast and hard. That's interestingly causing a reduction in inventory though, as while they're under contract they vanish for a while from some searches.
This will continue to be a fun spring.
Tabitha, you got a good deal and they got a good deal because they saved realtor fees.If you bought the place on Pineview you are in the county and zip 20111 which means you are safe from further tax assessment lowering and you contributed to that. When people here PW they automatically assume Manassas. Property in 20111 is priced at or below market value in almost all price points. Everyone assumes everybody lost 30 to 50% of value in Manassas..not so..I'll give you one example of one of my "buyers"..they offered us 505,000 for the house and bought at 515,000 in 20112 for a real fixer upper..same year, crudy location and worn slam damn out..anyway, they paid 10,000 more for a house that the 09 assessment was 100,000 less than my house with at least 50 to 70,000 worth of updating to do. But 20112 hasn't received all the press that we have. I watch Woodbridge all the time and I'd estimate at least 95% are being sold 10 to 15% above there 08 assessment. What really, really sucks is that this is one the areas where PW County estimates where they could see another 10% decline in 2010. Lots of foreclosures coming down the pipeline in Woodbridge,Gainsville and Nokesville some Bristol. As I have said before the only safe investment or purchase is in Manassas 20111 with your eyes open.Oh when I said you helped..you set the market value of your home with your purchase you told the assessor it was more valuable than 09 assessment and your futher assessments will be based off your market purchase. That is why assessments range from one house to the next in a neigborhood.
As I mentioned on a recent thread, Lenders are increasingly going with cash offers even when this results in a lower sales price.
Some sales of reo's are falling out, but my guess is that the majority of those are financed deals.
Some of you may not be aware of this, but you do have an inspection period once you are under contact on an reo. It's usually a week or more.
If your inspection shows issues, you can request a price concession and drop out, receiving your deposit back, if the Bank won't cooperate.
So you are not buying an as-is pig in a poke. I recently took my contractor with me so that I would have more precise numbers. I've asked the bank to drop the price 20K (15%) and am waiting to hear.
And the "poignant" portion of the North Shore article for those who don't know the area was this gem:
Debi, a Lake Bluff resident and real estate agent who preferred her last name not be included in this article, has experienced the steps that lead to foreclosure firsthand. She bought her brick ranch home in 2003 with 5 percent down and renovated it with about $100,000. "Then the real estate market was escalating. So this was like part of my retirement plan," she says. Then in 2006, she saw a slowdown in her industry and decided to sell her home. She started with an asking price of $599,000. But it didn't sell. So she kept reducing it.
Meanwhile, her income dramatically declined, from six figures in 2005 down to around $20,000 in 2007. Then in the spring of 2008, her three-year adjustable-rate-mortgage payments increased by $1,000. "So here I am then by July going, 'OK, I'm done. I can't make my mortgage payments,'" she recalls. In October, she received a foreclosure notice. Now the house is on the market for $435,000. If she sold it at that price, she could pay off her two mortgages and break even.
As Debi lowered and lowered the price on her home, she started to fret about the value of her neighbors' homes. "They're going to kill me for reducing the price of my house again," she worried. But fortunately, her neighbors have shown only compassion.
schadenfreude anyone?
Cara,
This is more like stupidity. There are mmany stupid people in the world and, yes, some are realtors.
va_investor,
Yeah, this whole article, (but that part in particular) was an amazing condensation of every possible stereotype of the entire mess. It was really the prototypical aspect of it that amused me. How many stereotypes can we trot out in one article? And I just wanted to tell her to click her shoes. If $435k would have gotten her out of her debts all along why didn't she list it at that as soon as she saw her income falling? Because she was worried about hurting all her neighbors...
My answers for RatChoicer's question yesterday:
I'd create or complete my conviction of a bottom or near bottom if a couple or more of the following occurred:
If the economy got so good that the Fed started hinting its first rate increase of the next cycle.
If the TED spread drops closer to .5 than it's recent 1.0 values.
If the banks stop talking about NEEDING capital and start talking about having so much and needing to find people to lend it to.
If the national conversation stops talking about clamping down on bank regulation and starts letting Wall Street run wild again.
If retailing reports said that all the recent prudent personal saving for the future had been called off, and foolish americans were once again back to shop-till-you-drop, and retirement be damned.
If Case Schiller tiered and non-tiered said that DC house prices had a price change of 0%, in a month or two that weren't the three or four month's that are the annual spring peak of price support.
If MRIS inventory graph for DC was truly improving for a couple of months on a year over year basis.
If the downtown DC and very close in properties I've been watching and am interested in and which have mostly just recently been showing 1-2% drops PER MONTH in listing price adjustments, stop showing such drops in listing prices.
If the condo I purchased in early 2002 and sold in 2007, or condos in the same building or other ones I deem very equivalent, get close, in closing price (or listing price plus a negotiation premium) to my 2002 buy price plus a 20% or so inflation adjustment.
If good downtown properties are selling for at or below $350/sqft.
If I stop hearing about 2-3 month free deals on rentals, and stop hearing about new downtown condo inventory coming on line and having trouble selling, or converting to rentals, or having trouble with purchase contract cancellations.
If we start a new war on a new front, and/or the Pentagon stops saying it wants to slash costs by firing a lot of contractors and hiring a lot of cheaper-salaried full-timers to replace them, and/or they start saying just kidding, we're back to spend spend spend.
If important local close-in companies, such as Marriott, BNA, Metro, Fannie-Mae, Discovery-Channel, Washington Post, USA Today, stop saying they are hurting and start saying they are happy/hiring.
If my favorite large local techie recruiting company stops saying they're business has shifted to 70% government and starts saying it's shifted back to a health 50/50 gov/commercial again.
If we hit the upcoming peak months of expected Alt-A and option loan resets, and someone reports that they've been no big deal as far as defaults, or, we pass those peaks and a large number of defaults happened but have been priced in.
As you can see my list is quite downtown centric--some of these local criteria may already have happened in, say, Prince William County.
Cara..I have the same concerns with my sale. Luckily I don't have to sell but there isn't anyway I'm going to adversly effect my neighbors unless a gun was held to my head. Now, you guys may call us sellers stubborn and unrelistic and maybe even stupid but its not going to change the fact that I have watched my neighbors kids coming home from the hospital, learning to ride bikes, roller skate and finally drive cars. I'm not going to sell at a steep discount of 09 and lower standards just to retire. My house is/was at market value. I can't help it if buyers still want to get a screaming good deal. They can keep right on looking with my blessings and I hope they find it. I can list my house for the same price next spring and still be at market so I'm in no rush at all.
arkey, have you had any feedback about your house from lookers/potential buyers? Was there anything beyond the market conditions cited for their lower-than-asking offers?
arkey,
You're not facing foreclosure or about to lose your major source of income. She is.
And, she's a real estate agent, it's her job to know how to price houses to get them sold, and she couldn't apply this "knowledge" to her own house.
Not really the same situation as you're in, where you've already stated before that you'd rather pass the property itself on to your offspring than get less that you think it should be worth now.
Tabitha..I've been delisted since Monday. I don't consider the 505 people buyers. I mostly had lookie loos and people that couldn't afford the place to begin with. 2 buyers..one could't get a loan because they wanted to rent it out for a year. They aren't due back stateside till 2011, the other was gonna pull equity out of their home and keep it and buy ours..2 major boo boo's in todays market. Live and Learn..second buyers that couldn't pull equity is listing their home for sale. So, there you go..lots of interest..we have had 3 or 4 come for a second look and still thinking..thinking about what I don't know but thinking anyway. Everybody is so afraid they are getting screwed that they run right out and really get screwed by buying 150 to 200 over market and this is with buyers agents. I don't get it, I really don't except for the media always clammoring about Manassas being a money pit of worthless homes.
Cara..Oh we agree on that. I just posted to Tabitha how realtors have these fraidy cat buyers that look and look and look afraid they are paying to much that when they finally make a really stupid offer, they keep their mouth shut.
Oh yeah, I'd much rather give it to Sam than sell below value.
Arkey,
But you are not in the market. If you are beyond the bid/ask spread it means that you are not going to sell at this price and since you do not have to sell immediately ---you are not going to change a price --- i.e. your listing has nothing to do with a market. Some hassle for you, nothing more.
Given your situation I would probably behave similarly, I hate losses (even against whatever unrealized gains I have). At the same time taking a "loss" against unrealized gain (i.e. still pocketing some money after the sale) can be more beneficial to the overall mindset. Again, in my experience, I can live with my decisions after they've been done, they do not haunt me. So my advice is --- whenever you really need to sell your house --- disengage from the concept of your own "market value" and relate to the comps only, comps that sell, true comps by location/finishes/size/style, etc. Otherwise can ponder about this issue too much (same applies to house buyers, when they really need to buy, with the caveat that may be they don't have to).
Also, perfectionism is extremely dangerous. I have to constantly remind myself, that I want to live in similar location and slightly larger place and preferably with slightly better finishes, and not pay too much more for it that i currently do. Otherwise my list of requirements can lead me completely of my price range.
Cara: "schadenfreude anyone?"
In this case, yes, absolutely. Thanks for posting that.
arkey,
the other thing is, by market confidence and dynamics, you indeed may do much much better next year, as your house is priced in the move-up range. So, until your buyers sell their houses, they can't buy yours. They're not just afraid of buying your house, they're totally unsure about what they'll get for their own. So, market confidence needs to return to the tier underneath you before it can return to your tier. (To an extent, obviously it's not that cut and dried).
Calculated Risk
s take on Fannie's conflicting missionFannie Mae, which took $15.2 billion in aid on March 31, cited the “unprecedented” housing market slump and government- mandated programs that are creating “conflicts in strategic and day-to-day decision making,” according to company filings today with the Securities and Exchange Commission.
We face a variety of different, and potentially conflicting, objectives, including:
providing liquidity, stability and affordability in the mortgage market;
immediately providing additional assistance to the mortgage market and to the struggling housing market;
limiting the amount of the investment Treasury must make under our senior preferred stock purchase agreement with Treasury in order to eliminate a net worth deficit;
returning to long-term profitability; and
protecting the interests of the taxpayers.
...
Accordingly, we currently are primarily focusing on the first two objectives listed above ...
arkey, I was just wondering if the fact that there is a smoker in your house has been cited as a limiting factor for your pool of buyers. Not knocking your house--it's lovely--and your neighborhood really has held its value well compared to the surrounding area. It's something I have always honestly wondered about.
Also, nothing in your neighborhood has sold since last year. I find this curious, as well, since it is a quality neighborhood with an excellent location. I have been trying to figure out if it is just that you hover right above the high-end line, or if there is something else at work.
I know you do not have to sell, but what if someone does? Will that tip you down?
(And you found me...good detective work.)
Does anybody have any experience dealing with banks to discuss buying one of their REOs that has not been listed for sale yet? Any tips?
For us Arlington watchers, just got an alert from Frank's site on that rambler on Carlin Springs near the intersection w/George Mason that was up about a month ago. One of the posters here said there was a bidding war on it, and they were dead right. List: $450k, Sold: $502k w/$5k subsidy
http://franklymls.com/AR7021797
Tabitha..yes, we got pinged on the smoker in the beginning but I washed down the walls and ceiling, bedding everything except the light fixtures and that got that solved for awhile..then it resurfaced as stale smoke..aha..the light bulbs! I kid you not. Light fixture and bulbs washed down and nothing since. It was only his bedroom/bath but the ahole stayed up all night before my open house smoking. I love him..what can I say. A habit he started with his year of debachery at Shepherd. We have had around 50 lookers, statistically maybe 10% of those noticed the smoke or mentioned the smoke. Nothing since early March. One of my serious lookers/complainers looked numerous times from open house up until they bought had a realtor that smoked..funny..as heck if you ask me. I think it has way more to do with what current buyers can afford, most have to stay at or below 500,000. I can't get that low without really going below 09 assessment and I'm not ready to do that. I hope you have a most splendid Mothers Day, you have certainly earned your keep this year! Both of my potential real buyers didn't have a complaint about smoke and they were from the open house when it was the worse.
I'm not going to sell at a steep discount of 09 and lower standards just to retire. My house is/was at market value. Isn't market value what the house will actually sell for?
If after a reasonable time, the only offers you get are what seem to be low-ball offers, then that's where the current market value lies. Mr. Market doesn't care what you think is reasonable or what you think the market value is or what the assessment is.
It might make a lot of sense to wait if you think the housing market is going up, but I don't think you do it to help your neighbors. Selling at the real market value won't make the value of your neighbors houses go down - they've already gone down. It just helps them realize how far. If they have to sell in this market, they're going to find that out on their own. If they're not selling in the next couple of years, your sale isn't going to make any difference. They'll sell at the current market value at the time of sale.
Yeah,
If you mark-to-market your assets every day and worry about their fluctuations, you become a maniac very soon. Better leave this to CFOs and portfolio managers, they at least are compensated for that.
From the comments to Calculated Risk: Actual Fannie Mae status Check out page 30, for the loss severities on Fannie's books for sub-prime and Alt-A's. These are pretty stunning.
copied and pasted here, go to orginal for formatting and context:
Table 24: Delinquency Status and Loss Severity Rates of Loans Underlying Alt-A and Subprime Private-Label Mortgage-Related Securities
As of
March 31, 2009 December 31, 2008 September 30, 2008 June 30, 2008
Average
Average
Average
Average
³ 60 Days
Loss
³ 60 Days
Loss
³ 60 Days
Loss
³ 60 Days
Loss
Loan Categories Delinquent(1) Severity(2) Delinquent(1) Severity(2) Delinquent(1) Severity(2) Delinquent(1) Severity(2)
Option ARM Alt-A loans:
2004 and prior 26.05 % 41.93 % 22.97 % 37.67 % 18.88 % 38.52 % 15.95 % 32.37 %
2005 32.18 55.14 26.48 50.34 21.65 46.84 17.35 42.77
2006 39.33 57.69 32.84 55.22 27.97 48.84 21.44 42.84
2007 31.77 53.24 24.16 51.00 17.17 44.60 10.79 32.99
Other Alt-A loans:
2004 and prior 5.97 47.27 4.75 41.80 3.87 36.89 3.36 38.15
2005 15.18 53.90 12.18 49.59 10.27 45.30 8.78 41.12
2006 23.57 57.08 19.70 52.49 16.99 46.54 15.40 42.38
2007 31.34 63.33 26.05 54.96 21.55 47.71 17.55 39.21
Subprime loans:
2004 and prior 22.09 71.47 21.09 65.56 20.71 63.27 21.51 61.00
2005 42.82 66.76 39.86 60.22 38.58 55.11 36.51 50.33
2006 47.82 68.18 44.60 62.30 40.19 55.97 36.13 50.36
2007 41.81 64.93 35.37 57.90 29.62 50.52 23.87 44.76
(1) Delinquency data provided by Intex for Alt-A and subprime loans backing private-label securities that we own or guarantee. The Intex delinquency data reflects information from remittances for the last month each quarter. However, we have adjusted the Intex delinquency data for consistency purposes, where appropriate, to include in the delinquency rates all bankruptcies, foreclosures and real estate owned.
(2) Data obtained from First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance and is based on most current data available as of each date. The average loss severities reported for March 31, 2009 include performance data for January 2009 and February 2009. We expect that the average loss severities as of March 31, 2009 will be higher than the amounts presented in Table 24 when the performance data for March 2009 is incorporated.
Cara,
Keep in mind that this is collateral level data, so the securities that they have (senior tranches mostly) will not experience that much of a loss (plenty to destroy their shareholders equity though). But the folks who bought the subordinate tranches will be wiped out completely.
psst - do I hear whispers? CRT - anything yet on whisper #s for April?
Konstantin, good point:
"The substantial portion of our Alt-A and subprime private-label mortgage-related securities were rated AAA when we purchased these securities; however, many of these securities have suffered significant downgrades since we acquired them. As indicated in Table 22 above, approximately 54% and 74% of our Alt-A and subprime private-label mortgage-related securities, respectively, were rated below investment grade as of April 28, 2009. Approximately 25% and 13% of our Alt-A and subprime private-label mortgage-related securities, respectively, were rated AAA as of April 28, 2009. Although our portfolio of Alt-A and subprime private-label mortgage-related securities primarily consists of senior level tranches, we believe we are likely to incur losses on some securities that are currently rated AAA as a result of the significant and continued deterioration in home prices and the increasing delinquency, foreclosure and REO levels, particularly with regard to 2006 to 2007 loan vintages, which were originated in an environment of significant increases in home prices and relaxed underwriting criteria and eligibility standards. These conditions, which have had an adverse effect on the performance of the loans underlying our Alt-A and subprime private-label securities, have contributed to a sharp rise in expected defaults and loss severities and slower voluntary prepayment rates, particularly for the 2006 and 2007 loan vintages.
Table 24 presents a comparison, based on data provided by Intex Solutions, Inc. (“Intex”) and First American CoreLogic, LoanPerformance, where available, of the 60 days or more delinquency rates and average loss severities as of March 31, 2009, December 31, 2008, September 30, 2008 and June 30, 2008 of the Alt-A and subprime loans backing private-label securities that we own or guarantee.
"
Fannie itself shouldn't go down much due to these losses, but whoever has the lower tranches is going to be taking it in the chin. The comparison being made in the CR comments is that these are the losses in the underlying loans, and they seem much worse than those in the stress test. But the stress test was vague enough, that I don't know whether the banks held anything other than the most senior tranches... Did they really manage to sell all their offal? Or has that already been marked to zero?
I hope most of the write-downs already occurred. Also have to separate projected defaults/severitues from observed. Actual ones lead to the losses to the principal/interest immediately, while projections affect your future losses (so they go to unrealized losses, still affecting capital), given the changes in mark-to-market accounting some banks may even reverse their earlier writedowns...
Keith K said: "Mr. Market doesn't care what you think is reasonable or what you think the market value is or what the assessment is."
Bingo. Right on the money.
That's what those who wail and moan about prices being "too high" in Arlington don't grasp.
Tom,
I think those of us that think prices are too high in Arlington grasp that just fine. Market price often has little to do with true value, particularly in recent years. Failure to grasp that is a much more dangerous error.
"Isn't market value what the house will actually sell for?"
Only when prices are going up...
He is just trolling Jeff.
Tom,
I agree, you cannot suddenly buy a house that's under contract for $1 million, for only 500k. Even 20-30% drop in prices in Arlington does not seem that realistic now (even though I have some reasons to believe that they will happen, albeit slowly and mostly through inflation).
Still, there is a certain difference here:
1) prices have no reason to go up, especially in Arlington, given price to income ratios.
2) it is still much cheaper to rent, than to buy in most areas, especially in Arlington.
So unrealistic seller has to pay his mortgage and be tied to the place he wants to get rid of, while unrealistic buyer saves some money delaying buying decision.
It is not a repeat of 2001-2005, when every half a year on sidelines were worth 10% more you have to pay. Not even close.
With rent-to-buy ratios like they are in Arlington, it's absurd to expect the values there to hold IMO.
Why are people talking as if prices weren't already falling in Arlington?
It isn't PWC, but prices are already down a chunk and still falling.
Leroy, you're definitely right. Some neighborhoods have changed more than others (which may in part be an artifact of low sales (e.g., if only a few, more run down houses were put up for sale and sold in your neighborhood, it will appear that the whole neighborhood had declined much more than in a neighborhood with a more representative set of sales), so neighborhoods down last year may hold their own this year and vice versa), but the prices are certainly down on a County-wide average by at least 10-15% since peak.
Forbes cites Fairfax the 3rd best place to live.
Leroy said: "Why are people talking as if prices weren't already falling in Arlington?
It isn't PWC, but prices are already down a chunk and still falling."
Depends on which part of Arlington you're talking about. In my area of N. Arlington, that definitely isn't the case -- prices are doing just fine here and occasionally bidding wars have broken out this spring.
"Depends on which part of Arlington you're talking about. In my area of N. Arlington, that definitely isn't the case -- prices are doing just fine here and occasionally bidding wars have broken out this spring."
Who said anything about your little self defined piece of Arlington?
Honestly, we get it... you think everything is just great...
... but we also know that you are never going to say anything else, so who really cares?
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