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Thursday, May 7, 2009
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59 comments:
contrarian,
Just two days ago you said that most of the 19 largest banks would fail. You also repeatedly claimed your belief that 16 of the 19 were already insolvent. Please share with me your thoughts on today's Washington Post article:
http://tinyurl.com/c3q8a4
"Long-awaited results of the government's stress test of 19 major banks show that nearly all...have enough money to weather the recession."
"...the tests concluded that the banks have enough capital in reserve but may need to strengthen the ability of those holdings to absorb losses."
"Prevailing regulations require all banks to maintain a capital reserve equal to 6 percent of their outstanding loans and other commitments, so the bank can absorb unexpected losses. For the purpose of the stress test, regulators also required that banks keep most of that reserve in the form of common equity."
"Nearly all of the banks have enough capital to meet the first requirement, but many were unprepared to meet the narrower requirement."
"Regulators have been careful to note that all of the tested banks have enough capital at present."
Timothy Geithner NYTimes Op-EdIt's worth reading, I'll let others pull out quotes, but I strongly advise reading the whole thing yourself.
I would title this "timothy geithner says more than "blah blah blah" for once. (and if you haven't watched the "hey paul krugman" song you're totally missing out)
Question for all that I cannot seem to find the answer to:
The Northern Virginia Standard real estate Purchase contract is available publically online for anyone to download and fill out.
Questions:
Can I alter this contract by just editing the text?
Is this a copyright violation?
Do I have to use strike through or can I just edit the text?
I have been trying to figure this out and it is annoying me to no end.
-RJ
RJGEMS - I wouldnt worry too much about copyright violation. Only real concern is that if you simply edit, but still present it as a "standard" contract, you run the risk of the receiving party will bring an action for "fraud in the inducement" or some other nonsensical action.
Not saying you will lose mind you. A party is charged with reading and abiding by the actual terms of the deal, not what they thought it said (i.e. they didnt read because they thought it was "standard").
Still, you can sue anyone for anything - and even if they wont win, the aggreived party is more likely to file a baseless suit if they feel they were "wronged".
Thus, if you want to lessen the chance the receiving party will even bring an action against you (even one where they would lose), just strikethrough and edit as necessary. This way, they can see where the changes were made, making it that much harder for them to later claim, I thought it was a standard form.
Hey, John Fontain,
The seller of your (un)favorite skinny house (some of you call it the Spite House) at 711 N Barton has finally decided to get serious about selling it (price drop from $1.125 mill to $950000).
I know, I know, you wouldn't buy it at any price!!!!
ttp://franklymls.com/AR6920391
I wonder if they were just leaving at an unreasonable price to serve as a marketing tool. It's gotten plenty of press and plenty of people walking through it over the last few months.
I wouldn't say that I wouldn't buy it any price...but certainly not at $950k. I'd be utterly surprised if it sells at this price.
Jeff B, I hope you're right. But here's a smaller house that went under contract very quickly, asking $1.1 million. They're very different but my point is that I would never have guessed that the Irving St. house would sell for anywhere close to asking. Of course it hasn't sold yet and I don't know the final price but the pattern in Arl. has been if it sells quickly it usually sells for close to asking.
http://franklymls.com/AR7032614
Ace,
Are those new pictures of the semi-Spite house? It's really the views out the windows that hurt it most (though I don't like the look of the outside either). They might do better with some high end shades that let in the light, but don't make it so obvious why the house had to be that shape.
The 1.1 mil one is cute, and more widely attractive on the outside. I like that they have what I'd call the kitchen as science lab look. Friends of ours redid their kitchen in that style years ago, glad to see they're not alone.
Do you get any sense of whether there are more or fewer high end listings this spring where you're looking? (I know one could just check the MRIS website by zip and price-range).
Ace,
Interesting to see the price drop on Barton St. I think it is worth a lot less than that, but I could see someone stepping up and buying it for another 5% off the current price.
I toured the Irving St. house and was surprised it went under contract so quickly with a $1.1 million price tag. The outside is a lot more appealing than the inside (some of the bedrooms were practically closets).
Was it you and I that were discussing the cost to build a house a few months back?
(Ace: and in case you logged out of yesterday's bits bucket, I just wanted to apologize again for letting a discussion turn into a fight. It was my fault, I'm sorry.)
Ace,
It's surprising to me that the Irving St house sold for that much. I guess I'll just keep being surprised because I can't place myself in the mindset of the people that pay that much for those houses.
I do like the Irving St house better...it looks nicer, imo, has to have a much nicer interior layout than Barton, has a yard, is in an actual neighborhood instead of being right on 50/Pershing, is closer to downtown Clarendon and the metro, appears to have a garage, etc. I don't know of any advantages that the Barton St has over it except for total interior square footage and the possibility that someone might like the look of Barton better.
So maybe I shouldn't be surprised when these places sell but I can't help but remain bewildered every time :)
Yeah,
but in Irving st. house you can live and have some kids. Barton one is not bad from architectural standpoint, but surroundings are much worse than bland. No advantages of the house (i.e. land, backyard) while price premium is there. It is essentially an overpriced low-rise condo.
Konstantin, Jeff B, I agree, but there's now a $200K difference (approx.) in price between the two that should compensate for some of those disadvantages.
I still think the Irving house is grossly overpriced relative to the market in general. I toured it also and totally agree that some of the rooms are very small - the garage really is a shed, and you can't drive a car up to it. As Cara implies, you either love the kitchen (which is out of character with the rest of the house and its heart pine floors upstairs) or you, er, don't. And the neighborhood and location are great, but there are still some houses "in transition." There are two houses in the same general area at about the price of the Irving St. house that are under contract but those are bigger houses and in many other ways comparable.
Thanks, Cara, that's kind of you but no apology is needed. I apologize if I said anything offensive.
I am hopeful that the Barton house price drop (along with several other drops in this range, which resulted in sales) is an indication that there is no magic to moving houses in Arlington - you have to be priced for 2009, not for 2005/6. Cara, re: your question, I only pay attention to homes that I think should sell for around $1 million or less (though I can't schedule the email alerts precisely, so sometimes I get informed about more expensive houses that we can't afford). As anielarke and others would probably tell you, that definitely is not high end in Arlington. But from what I can see, there aren't many new listings this spring - just a ton of stale, overpriced IMHO old ones. There are also some expensive huge houses that may not be overpriced relative to their value (whatever that means), but are so much bigger than what we need and can afford. These houses may sell if things loosen up in the credit markets, etc., so in that sense, they may not be overpriced like the other ones, but I suspect that there just aren't many buyers who can afford them, want them, and really need the space these days.
oops - where I said in many other ways comparable, what I meant was equal to or better than.
Cara,
On your four town homes from yesterday, consider location. The expensive two backed up to Burke Lake and a forested park, the second two backed up to another townhome. Being on or near water is probably worth 30-50k alone, I grant you not everyone wants it but enough do that there's a premium for it.
The other major factor is that Braddock road backs up more than most roads I've driven even as late as 7 pm. There are a bunch of folks who live out there, and almost all of them take Braddock to get to work and home, so being closer in on Braddock would be a significant advantage for a driver. A couple miles doesn't seem like much but the differnce between those two locations is substantial.
Thanks Ace. You didn't say anything offensive, I just took an implication that wasn't there and felt the need to clear the air.
I had noticed that you were posting fewer new finds lately, and rather than this third hand measure of what's going on, I thought I'd ask. That's frustrating that the listings are drying up like that.
Related to that, there was a comment in calculated risk the other day that said something to the extent of, "My favorite listing went just under contract. Darn, I'll have to wait another year before it comes back on the market as an REO. " Not so true here in DC, and I told it poorly, but it made me laugh.
Ace,
The amount of the location premium was what I was trying to gauge originally.
What's funny is that for me, being further from Braddock is better, because I want to take either Old Keene Mill or Fairfax Parkway. And the one that backs to water is in one of the worst elementary schools for locations near the VRE stops, and both upper priced ones are in the second choice High School District. The uglier cheaper one is actually the most convenient walk to the VRE, and in the best elementary district in Robinson's pyramid that's still walking distance to the VRE. Of course it also went under contract in like hours... so it might actually have sold too quickly to get its full worth.
There are tons more that sold under $250k, some of which were move-in ready but not spiffy, but which were either 200-400 sq feet smaller or not as "nice" of a development, or other differences that were more significant than the two I picked.
For my weekend's research I'm thinking to try to isolate the back-to-woods, back-to-water price effect by looking at the full sales history for all THs in a couple complexes that have both good and poor views but constant TH size. This will have the side benefit of giving me a full price history of a couple of complexes that I might be interested in buying in. It will be interesting to see how the price premium changes with market conditions (if I can get a big enough data set to tell, or if the prices are so regular that it's obvious).
Oops!! I meant Adam....
Cara, did you see this listing? It's pretty new:
http://franklymls.com/FX7045091
opps, that's not burke. Sorry. I searched Burke and just assumed it was there but strangely it is not.
Thanks, Cara,
I'm just getting discouraged with what's (not) out there.
The house right across the street from 714 Irving is nice, has great features, but is very big and I think will sell for a high price. I'm surprised it didn't sell before the bungalow.
http://franklymls.com/AR7033878
I see the relatively small # of new listings in this range as anecdotal information suggesting that some (how many?) would be sellers think this is a crummy time to put their houses up for sale if they don't have to move. They look at how many competitors are sitting, and they know their prospective buyers have a lot of paper/real losses in investments that in other times might help pay for a house, which they may recover later.
On the other hand, Clarendon still seems to be relatively hot, though maybe not to bubblicious standards. Here are 3 that are somewhat near the Irving house that are under contract - I said 2 in my earlier post, but now 713 Cleveland has joined them.
http://franklymls.com/AR7045924
http://franklymls.com/AR6939880
http://franklymls.com/AR7034257
Jeff,
Yeah that's the one I went to last weekend. It is in Burke, Burke Centre actually. Jeff Royce's pictures there are the ones he took when we looked at it.
My comments after touring itsearch on the page for Cara.
They were only accepting offers until Monday at 9 PM.
That's fine with me. I've got my house. I closed last month.
Ace,
Yeah that's confusing. That first one is indeed way better than the one that sold (in addition to having my old kitchen table in it, and my great grandmothers desk...). All I can guess is that the buyers either loved the lab-like kitchen or couldn't go above 1.1mil (or talked them down off that price a bit).
That's a lot of activity at the 1mil level. I personally like the 713 Cleveland one best (liked the detail on the windows, liked the simplicity of the kitchen, and the other two both had some of my pet peeves, most notably those trendy bowl-sinks.)
I can't remember where I read it, but someone was saying something along the lines of "people who don't need to sell should take their properties off the market so those that have to sell, can sell". Gah! Whatever. I don't understand the motivations and dynamics of over $800k houses at all.
Cara,
Just curious, but are you set on Burke or are you looking anywhere else - i.e. the Clifton, Centreville area?
contrarian,
"JP Morgan has more in derivatives than they have in assets."
At December 31, 2008, JP Morgan had a GROSS derivative liability of $121.6 billion and a NET derivative asset of $41.0 billion. You read that right, a NET derivative ASSET balance of $41.0 billion. See page 134 of their 10-K.
Even if we ignore the derivative assets, the derivative liabilities totaling $121.6 billion are absolutely dwarfed by consolidated assets of $2.2 trillion. See page 119 of their 10-K.
Therefore, your claim that they have more in derivatives than they have in assets is incorrect.
If I had to guess, the mistake you made was in your comparison of the notional value of such derivatives - rather than the fair value of the positions - to total assets. The notional value is $79 trillion per your link, but a comparison of this figure to total assets is completely meaningless. Why? Because notional value is simply a measure of the "underlying" on which the derivative contract is based.
A simple example might be you and I contracting in 2007 to pay each other depending on the US GDP. For example, if US GDP is above $14 trillion in 2008, I pay you $1 for each percent the actual GDP exceeds $14 trillion. You pay me $1 for each percent going the other way. If actual GDP was $14.2 trillion, I must pay you $1.43 (yes, one dollar and 43 cents).
Can you see now why the $14 trillion notional value of a derivative contract might be completely meaningless when measuring the materiality of such a contract to a bank's balance sheet?
For you to make such a comparison, tells me that you don't fully understand the subject.
Further, you said:
"That is before you include JPM's Level 3 (leveraged) assets."
Your reference to Level 3 being the leveraged derivatives again shows that you lack a basic understanding about the matter of which you speak.
Levels 1 through 3 have nothing to do with leverage employed, but rather relate to the precision with which fair value is measured. Level 3 involves the most "guesswork," but it has nothing to do with leverage.
I could on, but my point has been sufficiently made. With all due respect, I think you are doing yourself a disservice by taking an inappropriately negative view based on misunderstanding and misinformation. I say this as someone who was one of the biggest bears on housing and the economy a few years ago (but who now believes undue mania has given way to undue depression).
contrarian said:
"So, according to you, JF, being leveraged 30:1 or 40:1 doesn't matter? You're crazy!"
I never said nor implied that.
And I notice you did not address my response to your various claims about derivatives. Care to respond to those specific points I raised?
Cara, I dislike those bowl sinks too. And in < 5 years, there will be designers on HGTV making fun of houses with them, tsk-tsking over how "dated" they look, and that they will be more than happy for a proper fee to do a makeover.
To me it's obvious that the worst is behind us. How do I know? Well I don't have any of this fancy smancy technical stuff to show but I noticed allll the way down people kept saying, "Buy buy buy! You want to buy because it's low and we're going to have a bottom any day now!". Now these same "bulls" are saying, "The sky is falling the sky is falling! We're in a bear rally, we're in a bear rally! Sell Sell Sell!". Talk about capitulation.
Seriously, the economy isn't an exact science and most people are wrong, otherwise we'd all quit our jobs and become day traders. If everyone and their brother thinks this is a bear rally, then the bear market is over and Joe Schmoe, who transferred his 401k funds to a bond fund at DOW 7,000 is going to put it back into stocks at DOW 9,000.
I'm no expert that's for sure but I can tell you that *I* moved my money out of stock funds in June 2008 and back in prior to the huge rally (though I didn't get all of it).
Personal pet peeve: Just read a headline "Stress Test Results cause markets to plummet". I think, jeez that sounds bad, til I click and see the markets dropped about 2% on average.
Sorry, but a 2% drop isnt enought to say "plummet" - thats a pretty mundane decline, especially these days where theres lots of volatility.
Basically, my problem is the media loves to use emphatic words like "Plummet" "plunge" "soar" "spike" etc. to describe pretty typical movements. If thats the case, what do you call the massive, 5% or more daily movements we saw earlier this year?
Official stress test results:
http://tinyurl.com/ddmhs2
I'll be curious to see how these compare to Hal Turner's leaked copy - which I'm sure will be released at any moment - that showed 16 of the 19 banks were insolvent.
dgg,
Yes and no, for where we work, Burke is as far around the beltway clockwise as I want to go. Our other options are really Springfield, Kingstowne, and Alexandria, but of these Burke has the best schools.
Vienna, FFX City are also vaguely options but my impression is they are more expensive so I haven't bothered to research them in depth.
If we wanted to buy something cheaper, we'd probably go in the direction of Woodbridge, but I really don't want that commute.
check out page 6.
Do these loss rates really seem "more adverse" to you?
HELOCs 8-11, CRE 9-12? (sorry, this computer doesn't let me cut and paste from pdf files...)
CalculatedRisk (profile) wrote on Thu, 5/7/2009 - 2:22 pm
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We need to account for previous write-downs, but the BofA numbers look like a fantasy. The indicative rates for first lien mortgages are 7% to 8.5% - and I believe BofA is in worse shape (with their acquisition of Countrywide) than most banks. So I was expecting losses substantially higher than the indicative rates. Instead they are lower.
That makes no sense unless BofA has already written this down (I don't think they have).
Wells Fargo is estimating two year losses of 11.9% on First Liens and 13.2% on 2nds - that is more reasonable. I don't think BofA passes the smell test.
best to all
CR post on restultsIn the comments section he links to the full excel spreadsheet of the individual bank loss rates.
"In total the estimated loss rates are very high by historical standards" See how we made this graph to show it's never been this bad, hence you should believe us that it couldn't possibly be as bad as we're allowing for?
Oh, boy, what a load of...
sorry for the blow by blow...
"By its design, the SCAP is more stringent than a solvency test. Each BHC’s capital was rigorously evaluated against a two‐year‐ahead adverse scenario that is not a prediction or an expected outcome for the economy, but is instead a “what if” scenario. Thus, any need for additional capital and/or a change in composition of capital to meet the SCAP buffer builds in extra capital against the unlikely event the adverse scenario materializes and, in that way it may help to prevent that adverse event from occurring.
Are you believing this? I liked Geithner's op-ed better....
Cara,
I read the whole report, and I buy most of it. I agree some of the numbers look a little optimistic on potential write downs, particularly for seconds, but on the whole it looks legit.
Unfortunately, I think the previous TARP capital infusions are obscuring the largest chunks of blight on these balance sheets. What would these tests have looked like in October, 2007? That paints a much more realistic picture, I think, of who we ought to be even trying to save.
I've been rooting for a nationalized BofA for a while, though. It has a perfect ironic sort of sense.
Longtime lurker first-time poster.
Here's a question for the persistently negative (contrarian is one, but I'm really thinking of anyone who thinks that most of the market is overvalued):
What information could you find out tomorrow that would make you think that you are wrong? That is, suppose a new report on the NoVa real estate market came out tomorrow. What would it have to contain in order to make you think that maybe the market has, in fact, reached a bottom?
I ask because I am trying to figure out whether or not to jump in, but it sounds like no one is really changing their tune as more and more info comes out. I tend to think there is still some time before the real bottom hits, but it seems like most of the info lately has been to the contrary.
We ask this sort of question all the time in my academic department: what evidence would lead you to abandon your theory? If there is nothing that could come out that would make you reconsider, you're more zealot than observer/analyst.
ratchoicer,
Good question.
For the housing market, the stock market or the recession?
For all of these the answer for me is mainly time. If things still look this good in August or September, I'll believe the worst of the worst is over.
I believe we're very close to the beginning of the recovery for the recession. This is based on the initial unemployment figures dropping. If this continues and specifically if the continued claims abate, I think we're starting the recovery there.
For the stock market? I can't understand the stock market, so I'm guessing one more major dip down near or exceeding the previous low, but it's really just a hunch not an educated guess.
For the housing market? In my market segment of starter homes in Burke? I think we're very close, but I want to see it survive the late summer fall, because right now you have both the $8k buyer bribe plus the fact that now is the perfect timing for people with kids to move (and Burke's biggest asset is its schools). I want to see what happens 6 months out from the end of the moratorium occurs and those REOs hit in the off season, before I declare a bottom there.
For the banks? If calculated risk does a comparison of the loan portfolio holdings by region, FICO score downpayment amount and current values and finds that the stress tests were actually as the Fed says a true worst case scenario that can be avoided by shoring up their balance sheets, then I'll believe it.
I guess this means I'm cautiously optimistic, so not your target audience.
But for jumping into housing I think it depends strongly on which market segment you want to jump in to. As far as snapping up rentals for cash-flow I think we're there and have been for a while. For huge mansions, any potential REO steals are already happening. For everything in between.... Look long and hard and calculate in possible losses of another 10-15% and see where things have to be for it to be worth it to buy in uncertainty. Because really, there's the strong question of what do you think you will lose by waiting? I see no signs of inflation before 2010. I see no signs of interest rates going above 6 before then. So, where's the harm? Once the REO's dry up, we might get a jump of 10-20k in price, it's true, but then you'll get to avoid buying a house "as is" and the hassle that entails, and normal sellers will slowly start coming out of the woodwork (and continue to trickle out for years).
Cara,
From yesterday's post: Even though you calculate that $105K may be excessive for the difference between the two THs, (and I may agree with you), the fact is that something is holding you back from buying the lower priced TH and fixing it for what you would consider a deal (since the upgrades THs are so expensive).
So, if you are not willing to invest in the lower priced TH and fix it for what you understand would be much cheaper than paying the extra $105K in the case of the TH with a view or whatever is the case, there is an additional value in having a fixed TH that you are not calculating. That is not dealing with the hassle of doing the upgrades, the unknown about how these will turn out, dealing with contractors, time lost from work, etc, etc. That is why some people pay the 105K difference.
dc2
Something is indeed holding me back, it's called (1) our lease and (2) our financial timing to reach 20% down plus closing plus renovation money plus emergency fund.
None of these have anything to do with the TH's themselves.
The other thing would be, the prospect that SFHs may come down into our price range soon and thus that'll we'll regret jumping in too early. So, yeah, again nothing about the TH's themselves.
Personally, I'd much rather choose my own floors, paint, counters, appliances, and not have to feel guilty for replacing stuff that was perfectly good.
So, yeah, what's holding me back from either set of THs is (1) our own personal timing, and (2) the strong strong preference against overpaying for any particular attribute.
john
don't believe the hype
"Here's a question for the persistently negative (contrarian is one, but I'm really thinking of anyone who thinks that most of the market is overvalued):"
Well, I am not contrarian, but I do think most of the real estate market in this area is still overpriced.
Of course, I also think we are nearing the end of this stage of the correction, especially out west.
I expect to continue to see falling real prices moving forward, but it is going to be a lot slower moving and a lot of it is likely going to be due to inflation.
It looks to me like the low-end is a lot closer to the "bottom" than the high-end.
As far as what could convince me to change my mind? There isn't much I don't think, some kind of data showing that incomes have absolutely skyrocketed in the DC area and seeing some serious movement in the higher end of the market where houses have largely just been sitting.
Ok, Contrarian... quick question.
At this point do you believe Hal Turner was telling the truth and actually had a pre-release secret copy of the stress-test results, results that showed something completely different from the version released to the public, or do you think he was lying again?
(True/False) Hal Turner received a secret version of the stress test results in advance. ___
It's kind of funny, because as far as upgrades go, I've never (until the recent shows on TV) ever heard that you get your money back when you upgrade, let alone heard of someone paying a premium for upgrades. I even know a statistician that did some contract work for NAR years ago, and the only thing that paid for itself was paint.
I'm not denying that there may be folks who would pay a premium, but that would be a change from historic norms and ways of thinking.
dc2
Actually, sorry on second thought, your main point was vacation days, which is a serious constraint that should not be swept aside.
Yes, vacation days are precious. And so, if you were looking at the TH market from the perspective of needing something that's move-in ready, then actually? These two were by far and away the best values currently on the market. The move-in ready stuff that's as big or bigger than these is priced at $350k on up, and most of those don't have the unbuildable parkland or lake views. So for your $100k premium, at least you're getting something immutably good in addition to getting move-in, live-in for many years without updating ready.
Of course what this also means is right now is a terrible time to buy if you're constrained to move-in ready places because then you're cutting yourself off from 60% of what's on the market and 90% of what's priced competitively. But some people always do "have to buy". Motivated buyers face the same problem motivated sellers do, lack of bargaining power.
ratchoicer,
another thing would be if reports came out showing that the late 2008, 2009 mortgage loans issued so far had median LTVs of 90% or "better" (i.e. more skin in the game for the borrower) and median back-end DTI's of 36% or lower, and that less than 10% of loans had either less than 5% down or back-end DTI's of more than 40%.
That would make me tickled-pink and feeling very very confident that the housing market is turning around,because it would mean all the current demand is real, well-funded demand, and that very few of the latest batch of loans will go under which would be fantastic news for the banks balance sheets and the lessening in REO's going forward.
That would be fantastic news. Instead we're seeing an increasing FHA percentage and some of those defaulting before even a single payment has been made. Now, those aren't on the banks sheets, they're on the tax payer, but still, not a good sign.
NoVAWatcher, not to beat a dead horse, but three things:
(a) it's a matter of degree rather than premium versus next-to-nothing. Some people assign very zero to low values for improvements, e.g., the agent who says that a new roof isn't worth anything because people expect the roof to be in good condition, but then advise that a price should be lower if the house needs a new roof (which are contradictory statements); at an average price for an average house, one does expect an average roof, but this is neither a brand new one or a very old one.
(b) I believe the NVAR studies and all others I have ever seen are based on builders' or Realtors' best guesses about what improvements bring. A good study of value would actually examine house selling price differences where other factors are held constant. This can be done statistically if it can't be done experimentally.
(c) value differences probably depend on many things - the nature of the improvement (a new kitchen, an added on room, vs. new paint); the nature; the skill and quality with which it has been changed (if I put in an ugly kitchen I won't get as much value as someone who puts in a better one for the same cost); the location (improvements probably return more in the DC area because time and handyperson skill is at a premium; and within the area, one can over-improve relative to the neighborhood (people don't like to buy the only $500K house in a $200K neighborhood), etc., etc.
Cara,
We bought in the Centreville/Clifton area in February, but looked a lot in Burke as well. I love Burke! I probably would have preferred Burke, but we found a great little neighborhood right on the Centreville/Clifton border that we loved and were able to get a pretty good deal on a short-sale. I still keep an eye on Burke listings from time to time. If I see anything interesting, I'll send it your way - although if you are like me at all, you're probably all over the new listings! Take care and good luck!
dgg,
What's the nieghborhood? It's always worth a look... better to keep options open. But yeah, I really am falling in love with Burke, the trees, the rolling hills, the lakes... I'm a sucker and a surburbanite, I must admit my true nature and stop pretending that I love cities when I don't.
hey Ace,
if you need an example of a fixer upper purchase that someone is going to regret, I've got another sold this morning. Overpriced at near $208k. Why? Only 1200 sq feet, in a TH community that's been pummeled by REOs, and who's renovations are exactly half done, such that now you have to finish them.
http://franklymls.com/FX6901782
(it backs to just a couple trees, it's one TH grouping to the west of where it's marked on the google birdseye.)
So many bad choices out there, so little time.
Cara,
We bought a TH in Westbrooke - which is off of Compton Road. The neighborhood is a mix of nice SFHs as well as THs. Because of that, it feels more like a traditional neighborhood - as opposed to rows of THs. The THs are in a court which is nice. They back up to open green space and a park - which helped me to not feel like I was deprieving my 3 year old of a yard! I wish I could pick up this neighborhood and transplant it in Burke though. The area off of Compton between 28 and Union Mill is nice and quiet, but I love the community feel of Burke. Hope you find something that suits your family there soon!
Cara,
Here is a new listing in our neighborhood that just came on the market. It is not a SS or foreclosure so it is asking about 20% more than we paid. It is probably a little too far out for you. It takes me about 8 minutes to get to the parkway going union mill to braddock rd.
http://franklymls.com/FX7051012
Thanks dgg,
yeah, sadly this would indeed be pretty inconvenient for us. Thanks for posting it though.
(man, did you get a load of that master-bath vanity? definitely a case of you better hope your buyer has exactly the same taste as you or you're sunk, that thing is massive and FUGLY, I don't care if everyone's buying them, everyone bought those funny plastic shoes too, what were those called? I liked the tile though and the size of the kitchen).
I doubt any information could come out tomorrow which would convince me to but now or forever hold my peace.
But a trend... that is convincing. This recent trend has had more strength than I expected, so I have to admit the possibility that I'm wrong already. That may have been the bottom.
I still don't think so. But I won't know for certain except with hindsight.
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