Continuing to examine and hold a lively discussion of the Northern Virginia Real Estate market.
Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
RealtyTrac: April foreclosures rise 32 percentApril foreclosures rise 32 percent, with more bank reposessions likely to come Adrian Sainz, AP Real Estate Writer On Wednesday May 13, 2009, 5:50 am EDT MIAMI (AP) -- The number of U.S. households faced with losing their homes to foreclosure jumped 32 percent in April compared with the same month last year, with Nevada, Florida and California showing the highest rates, according to data released Wednesday.link
Another N. Arlington house recently sold for much less than asking and assessed value (about $1.3 mill):http://franklymls.com/AR6935742Selling price: $1125000
Interesting, Ace, can you see any problems with it (other than across from a school, which is a positive for some a negative for others?). The other big downside of course is just that at over 1mil, their taxes alone would be a reasonable rent. (not here, maybe, but in principle). But since that's the same downside for all high priced properties, it doesn't really count.It looks to me like a nice recent house. Sure, I don't care for that particular wallpaper, and the white-picket baby gate to the dining room is a bit much, but those are easily changed.
Calculated Risk reports that retail sales are down again in April from March and YoY. Green shoots, eh? Not getting much fertilizer, maybe too much rain?
sseedragonas always, CR has the most relevant take on this:"Much of this activity is at the initial stages of foreclosure - the default and auction stages - while bank repossessions, or REOs, were down on a monthly and annual basis to their lowest level since March 2008. This suggests that many lenders and servicers are beginning foreclosure proceedings on delinquent loans that had been delayed by legislative and industry moratoria. It's likely that we'll see a corresponding spike in REOs as these loans move through the foreclosure process over the next few months."
And it's semi-official, FHA will monetize the $8k buyer bribe to allow it to be used directly as a downpayment Housing Wire take on it. The real report is due out in a week. But it's official, the government may have taken away seller sponsored DAPs (downpayment assistance program), but for now it's fully replacing that with government DAPs for "all."FHA, serving knife-catchers everywhere since 2007.
The affordability index was 166.7 in March – down from an upwardly revised record of 174.4 in February due to higher home prices in March. The index remains 30.8 percentage points higher than a year ago. Oh, look, home affordability going down. More people won't be able to afford homes. Whoops, the reason for that is INCREASING home prices!
Home foreclosures are lagging indicator. Stock prices are leading indicator.
Indicator of what, exactly? The stock market has incorrectly indicated many a recession and many a recovery over the years.Unemployment is a lagging indicator (for the economy), and hence if the foreclosures are due to loss of income, they must lag another 3-6-12 months (3 in VA because of the quick foreclosure process here, 12 in CA). However, the drying up of foreclosures is a necessary step for a bottom in home prices to form, hence it is a leading indicator for the housing cycle. Since foreclosures are still increasing, and show signs that the moratoria primarily time-shifted default filings to now and the future, this forward looking indicator hasn't even turned the corner yet.
WSJ opinion piece on why the current stock trend is just a sucker's rally. Ah, patrick.net. Never fails. But this is actually an excellent piece, who's bottom line is, "there aren't sustainable, fundamental reasons for the market's continued rise.".
Hi, Cara, I didn't tour AR6935742 so don't have an answer. I view it as part of a pattern: with a few exceptions, the houses that are selling (as opposed to sitting indefinitely) in the range of this house (and maybe above and below) are selling for less than assessed value - in some cases, a LOT less than assessed value. Even in the relatively hot areas, this is sometimes happening - e.g., the house on Daniel St. that is now under contract was initial assessed near $1.3 but the homeowners appealed to Arlington and got a downward assessment (this change is not on the website - but I saw its earlier assessment before the website changed it).Yet, the new listings in this range keep coming out with asking prices over assessed values - some times $100K or more over, with insufficient discernible upgrades to justify it. Add them to the list of sitters.I would bet that the cool charts that you told us about on NoVAwatcher's site that showed some "blue spots" in Arlington are mostly clustered in neighborhoods with a higher proportion tear-down/new builds. Particularly in this era of 12-year-low sales volume, it's pretty easy to get an average 15% or more increase YOY if developers have torn down several $600K houses (incl. land) and sold a $1.5 mill. house, for example, since there may only be 5-10 sales in that neighborhood for the whole year.
Ace, that's novahomeguy (a realtor), but that's a really really interesting theory.
Very very interesting NY Times take on bank capital. Bailout mania began with the Bush administration’s attempts to boost bank capitalization rates. The Obama administration’s reaction to bank stress-test results marks an important change by asking failing banks to raise their own capital rather than injecting another round of taxpayer funds. Yet neither administration has admitted to the public how difficult it is for the Treasury to have an impact on bank capitalization, because the market works to offset Treasury transactions in bank capital....
sorry for the identity mixup!
Robert still believes in efficient market theory!I thought Kahneman killed that a long time ago.
That N. Arlington house sold for 850k in 2002, so the owner still made 250k in 7 years after commission.
Robert,You are now proclaimed a Knight of Lance Order! Inflation be with you!
This article:TARP Distribution Wider Than Previously BelievedHas a link to these maps:Mapping Geographic Impact of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)On the map above, you can show, by county, the number of HDMA loans for 2007 (Fairfax County = 41,160), and the number originated by TARP recipients (21,109, or 51%).Local Impact of the Capital Purchase ProgramClick on Virginia for a list of local banks which have received TARP money.
Obama administration to expand housing planThe new initiatives are expected to include ways to allow borrowers to avoid foreclosure by selling their properties or giving them back to lenders, according to people briefed on the plan who declined to be identified because it has yet to be announced.One way would be to encourage a "short sale," in which the home is sold for less than the amount owed on the mortgage but the lender considers the debt paid off. Another option is a deed-in-lieu of foreclosure - in which the borrower gives the property to the lender to satisfy a delinquent loan and to avoid foreclosure proceedings.Obama's "Walk Away" Plan. Jingle Mail as government policy. ROFLMAO.
contrarion,what does HDMA stand for? thanks
Cara,Absolutely nothing. One look at the link would show that I obviously transposed the HMDA to HDMA.
contrarion,geez, sorry. I just clicked on the first link which wasn't very explanatory and gave up..."home mortgage disclosure act"
Post a Comment
Subscribe in a reader