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Monday, April 20, 2009
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67 comments:
Jim Cramer's Mad Money says the housing bottom will be on my birthday on June 30th. Do you agree?
I asked him first hand!
http://blog.franklyrealty.com/2009/04/bank-foreclosure-moratorium.htmlDo you agree?
Do you think the bank foreclosure moratorium being lifted will result in another flooding of bank properties?
Frank
contrarian: I would NOT cite anything from Turner. He's a white-supremacist, holocaust-denier, a fraud, and hyped fake Ameros on his web site.
Or to quote someone from CR:
Stop posting the "Turner" "leak" about the stress test. The guy "leaking" it is a semi-employed janitor from a slum in Jersey City, New Jersey. All of his "leaks" are all bullshit lies designed to drive traffic to his failed white supremacist radio show/blog so he can solicit donations. His last "scoop" was when he bought one of those novelty "amero" coins and said that he had a friend inside the treasury department and a major bank tell him that they had shipped pallets of these new currency units to various fed reserve banks. High ranking federal officials hang out with and leak info to janitors in jersey slums all the time, don't you know.http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hal_Turner
Frank,
While it's cute that he picked your birthday for the housing bottom, Jim Cramer is now and always has been on crack-rock.
contrarion. Wow. just wow.
based on the shadow inventory in CA and all the option-arms and I/O on tiny or non-existant equity purchases on mortgages over a million dollars, I'm thinking September or October, the next leg down happens if it hasn't already. Why? because thats when the high-end foreclosures stalled from the CA moratorium will hit the market and will start needing to be written off. Of course if this report holds up, then it won't take until then.
I read every day but post little. My bid was accepted on a short sale. 45.5% off the 2006 sale price. It is cheaper than renting.
JOhn,
accepted by the bank? Congrats!! Good luck and smooth sailing with the rest of the process.
novawatcher
good to know, I was skimming the comments in CR to find out why in particular this "leak" wasn't believable but there are so many comments I didn't find it.
Still, the stress test results will be interesting May 4th...
Regardless, I'm still predicting another leg down when banks need to write-off a large chunk of their jumbo loan holdings from CA this fall. While we may not have much of these shenanigans here, if they adversely affect the banks, they will affect lending and the economy again. I'm seeing 20-30% downpayments as requirements in the near future... 50% for condos. And even more job losses nation-wide.
JOhn, hope we can celebrate with you at closing.
Frank, I just wish TPTB would declare the bottom on the few properties that interest me - but not at their current prices, and it doesn't have to be a birthday present, either. It's just a small request (hundreds of thousands of $, that is). Hope you can pull some strings.
"Do you think the bank foreclosure moratorium being lifted will result in another flooding of bank properties?"
Frank if YOU can predict that one for us it would be great!!! (For OUR area/NoVa, not Cali, heck we all KNOW that's toast..!!)
Should I buy now or wait until Aug/Sept when the foreclosure fall out is in full swing here & possibly lower prices again???
Anyone have a crystal ball?
Cara - regarding your comment yesterday regarding shadow inventory locally, JF provided us with a link last winter that gave us some hints:
This is the REO by county (Oct 2008) compared with the stated inventory (Oct 2008):
Arl/Alex/FC - 500 vs 1800 stated
Fairfax - 4200 vs 6800 stated
Loudoun - 1700 vs 2700 stated
PWC - 5700 vs 4800 stated
Assuming that was correct, shadow inventory is
+27% in Arl/Alex& FC
+62% in Fairfax
+63% in Loudoun
+119% in PWC
Again, we werent sure this was the shadow inventory reported to the MLS. Also, this was 6 months ago, and given the dramatic fall in stated inventory since then, its hard to say whats happening with the REOs. Finally, recall my anecdotal evidence from the bulk purchase I got to work on - 90% of the stuff the bank wont list is really junky stuff.
In any event, I do think the shadow inventory is (or at least was) a sizeable issue in this area. As such, even if the stated inventory is so low (in comparison to sales) that prices should rise, I doubt you will see that happen. My guess is the prices will stay flat til the banks exhaust all the shadow inventory, and only rise once the majority of that is gone - whenever that may be.
thanks CRT for digging those up.
That's alot of shadow inventory for FFX County. Wow. yeah we're in this for the long haul...
spunky,
I have this sick feeling that there are just a ton of us in the same position. Everyone that has been shut out from 04/05 forward that has accumulated a good down payment and are looking to take advantage of the low rates, rebate, and lower prices. I know I've been very discouraged by the lackluster inventory so far this year and also wonder if later in the season will be a better time. I'm starting to question that, though.
My wife and I are having a fundamental discussion about what price range to look at. We've considered everything from $250k foreclosures to $550k houses in better areas. Do we go really cheap and rack up a ton of savings over the next five years and trade-up when any theoretical children are ready for school, or do we go all out and buy as much as we reasonably can now with the absurdly low rates and have a locked-in mortgage in a good area for a long time. We're both feds, so barring something unprecedented (which doesn't really seem that far-fetched) we are on solid financial ground. It is just so strange because our lives would be so different in either situation.
fred,
yup. and we're all here on this blog...
I'm not in a position to go the $550k route, but it's a related question. Whether to buy as cheaply as possible now, or rent a year or two more hoping that the $450k houses now are $350k or less in a few years. I say related, because that's the risk you're thinking about taking with a $550k purchase now. Because that market segment is only beginning to see any reductions compared to the beating the low end has already gotten. My only advice would be that if you decide to go the nice house route, don't go all the way to your max price. Keep a nice comfort level cushion, and demand value, demand that what you get for $450-475k now is worth every penny as far as you're concerned. Take advantage of the market uncertainty to get the biggest bang for the buck you can manage.
But no matter what, don't buy a house that you won't be happy in 5 years from now. There's no reason to incur that much transaction costs on an asset that may very well not have recovered at all in that time frame.
I get to wait regardless. I'm not in the financial position to buy now, even if I thought it was a good time. So that probably colors my thought process to believe that now isn't a good time, and that later will be better.
But I do occasionally see houses at a price range I find attractive (if I had my full dp saved) that I'd be interested in looking at more closely with a Realtor (again, if I had full dp). So I know where you guys are coming from.
Fred/Cara/Everyone-
I/We (hubby & I) are older than most on this blog, so we've played the game before.
I think the best that any of us can do if we want to buy now/soon is to really hone in on the area we want to live in and watch the pricing with a microscope.
We are looking in Loudoun Co, East of 15, which no one else here seems to be looking. We work here, not in DC.
I have seen (last week) a short sale come on the Market for 650K that sold for 1 cool mill in '06.
There are 4 other houses for Sale in this hood, and whenever this 650K closes it should lower the rest of these Sellers comps, GREATLY.
This will take several Months & may well be worth the wait.
I guess if "we" all can lowball a house we like, for a price (per sq/ft) that we KNOW is reasonable, then maybe we should buy now.
But only buy if it's a deal.
Most projections are for another 15-20% decline in RE over the next year. So if I/We (all) can get that 15-20% off a list price now - I say go for it!
Novawatcher -- Re: Mr. Turner thanks for reminding us that its very important to vet the credibility & accuracy of all the self styled gurus out there.
Contrarian, FWIW, It looks like Mr. Gordon is interpreting the scriptures to suggest a 64% drop in real estate prices...
http://www.advisor.ca/advisors/news/industrynews/article.jsp?content=20090409_100454_9368&r=true
Spunky,
If it costs the bank less than $350,000 to foreclose on that property that was previously sold for $1M, then I can't imagine why the bank would agree to a short sale for $650K.
I will be very interested to see if the closing goes through, so please send us that info once you know it.
As a potential buyer, I would love to see short sales as a realistic possibility, but at this point, I just don't believe a bank will accept any low price that a desperate seller lists their house for.
Contrarian,
I think those predictions are quite far-fetched, but let's say that they are correct. This 90% fall in both RE and equities would, in effect be a massive deflation, i.e. increase in the value of the dollar. So are you all in cash? Any other tangible asset, even those preferred by bears like you (Gold, oil, canned goods, ammo) would be worth less of these newly valuable dollars.
Contrarian,
To carry on this line of reasoning, -- so with the unemployment and social unrest etc. why wouldn't the govt. simply print more of these very valuable dollars? They could Bury them in mines as Krugman jokes about, or drop them from helicopters as Bernanke famously joked. But joking aside, we have seen that Govt. has political pressures toward inflationary policies, wouldn't this moderate your scenario?
contrarion - When I watch Ian Gordon's make his top-down predictions I don't see one very important thing - supporting evidence. He says prices will fall 90% but doesn't offer any explanation or rationale for them doing so (and no, I don't consider a single anecdotal example of a house price declining 90% during the Great Depression as appropriate support for why all house prices will fall that much today).
Since it appears that you agree with Gordon that prices will fall 90%, I'd like to challange you to do something - support your prediction with a bottom-up analysis of a single house. Pick a house in say, Fairfax County, that sold near the peak of the bubble and is currently for sale (that way we can all see pictures and evaluate the property). Then, explain to us in detail why the price should be only 10% of it's peak price.
For example, here is a house that sold for $780,000 at the peak in 2005. Please explain why you think the price of this house is really only worth $78,000:
http://franklymls.com/FX7003404
Or here is a house that sold for $625,000 at the peak. Tell us why this house is really only worth $62,500:
http://franklymls.com/FX7008173
Please ensure that your explanation is a bottom-up analysis related specifically to the house selected. And feel free to pick any house, if you'd rather use another example. Thanks. Looking forward to your analysis.
john fontain,
good idea.
I wasn't asked but I'll give it a shot.
On that second one, (a) it backs to FFX Cnty parkway. Which is loud and heavily traversed and a source of pollution. (b) it's too close to Springfield, the random teenager attacks last year could break out into full fledged violence any day now and spread to this neighborhood (c) the house? (1)Marble floors? where do we live CA/FL? not practical for this climate. (2) the whole great room concept has one fatal flaw that no one seems to recognize yet, which is lack of sound containment. no one can get to sleep at night upstairs if anyone's still in the living room, especially with those marble floors (3) other than the garage it's kind of tiny (4) the upgrades other than the kitchen are pretty low-brow. So once the new base housing at Fort Belvoir complete with a town-center feel is completed, and now that it's clear more jobs aren't coming to fort belvoir, and Franconia/Springfield station becomes as scary as Huntington station already is, then this place is toast.
(though I still bet it would go for at least $200k)
"Eponymous said...
wouldn't this moderate your scenario?"
Maybe not Eponymous. One of the many criticisms of wave theory is that it really undercuts the presumption of free will in individual human actors. In essence, there is nothing anyone can do to stop the wave.
It also assumes people cannot really learn from their mistakes. In this case, since the wave theorists are forecasting a depression (curiously, they always are forecasting pessimism, wave theorists in the 50s & 60s were suggesting imminent doom), they expect we will make essentially the same decisions we did in the 1930s, resulting once again in deflation.
I just heard on a recent Schwab market update podcast this morning that the May 5 release of the bank stress testing will have the result that ALL of the tested banks will pass.
Kind of opposite to that "leaked" version, eh?
Now, I can see where journalism has been headed lately, but still, which is more believable? A breathless shrill doomsday fantasy scenario from some web site, or a fact-heavy report from Charles Schwab?
(I also can see the argument that the stress test is DESIGNED to allow most every bank to pass--after all, if I was the government, staffed with all kinds of people from the financial industry, and didn't want to see the Dow go to 3000 or lower, even I might be tempted to tweak the stress test into a nice, calming marketing tool!)
I won't comment on the credibility of Gordon/Whitney because anyone who posts something as suspicious as the "leak" piece without admitting any skepticism, loses some credibility with me on anything else they post. However--
I DO believe SOME house prices in SOME areas will approach an 80%-90% drop. Slab houses in ghost town burbs of Phoenix? Empty condo highrises taken over by crack addicts in Miami? Detriot certainly has some stories too.
And, in 1996 I was offered a condo unit near the U.S. Capitol for $70,000--could it have gone up 5 times since then? Sure. Could it get close to it's old value? MAYBE. Depends on jobs, credit, crime, foreclosure, condition, condition of the houses attached next door, etc.
But mostly in DC, I doubt jobs or crime will ever get so bad again that it will feel like 1994. It's just changed around here. 2002, more like, and I'm finally seeing some downtown units I like dropping by 1-2% a month---but they won't make it back to 1994, let alone 1974.
On the other side of risk--I think there is a GREAT risk of the credit situation turning around dramatically and perhaps suddenly, and the same goes for (wage) inflation and the local stimulus-zapped job market--including where I work, which is getting billions in stimulus and is trying to hire like crazy.
I HOPE not--I hope the market continues to soften close-in prices for several months more, because I'm a slow-moving potential buyer. (Same for the stock market, too, because I'm mostly waiting on the sidelines for that too.)
But I think the above two risks become GREAT risks the longer you wait, except in the Black Swan scenario.
As an antidote--I remember staying away from certain websites--or only treating them as entertainment, like astrology and fortune cookies--and instead spend time reading The Economist magazine.
And, lo and behold, here's a press article about the stress test, which perhaps gets exactly to what my sentiments about that were...
http://enews.earthlink.net/article/top?guid=20090421/49ed44c0_3426_1335020090421-1800137823
RE: stress test results.
Time will tell. In fact, May 4th we'll know a lot more. Anyone who needs to hedge their bets has been forewarned.
Personally, I have no problem waiting until then to find out. But I'm not heavily in the stock market, and don't own a home. I would be sad if my bank went into recievership, just because I quite like their particular web-banking system. But I'll live.
Inflation- too many dollars chasing fixed amount of goods
Deflation- too few dollars for fixed amount of goods.
You posit that inflation and deflation are separate and distinct. How can there both be too many AND too few dollars existing at the same time?
"Contrarian said...
The deflation - the implosion of the last 70 years of credit - needs to occur before the inflation can take place."
Contrarian, you do realize of course that if "Helicopter" Ben Bernanke were to live up to his moniker and literally drop money from helicopers, we would have hyperinflation, and every home would explode in value. Nothing indicates he is planning on doing that now, but if wages were to start dropping precipitously, I can virtually guarantee he is going to start printing checks and sending them to every man woman & child in the USA.
"Contrarian said...
If you want a specific example, look at Detroit. Prices there have already dropped 90%. Homes are selling for under $1000."
The problem in Detroit is you have housing for 800,000+ in a city that now has 600,000 people. If I were to build 100,000 homes in death valley, they would go for less than $1,000 each just because there is little chance there will be anyone living in the area.
Thus the problem with Detroit is supply exceeds demand. If you want to prove your point, you need to show an example where population is increasing, and prices are nevertheless down 90%.
"Contrarian said...Because of the loss of credit lines, real estate will essentially dry up. Houses will become a place to live again, not investments."
Throughout most of history, when credit dries up, volume of transactions declines as everyone becomes renters, (or sharecroppers earlier, or serfs earlier than that), but prices do not follow without wage deflation. Even without credit, installment sales contracts/owner financing with baloon payment terms will return as it was for most of human history before say the 1930s - and still exists in much of the third world. Thus, without wage deflation, I suspect me people will use these informal methods of credit and keep prices in line with incomes.
And, just to add a comment about June 30th, I think that for neighborhoods and condo buildings that have prices dropping 1-2% a month right now, in downtown DC, etc, I doubt they'll be done softening by June!
On the other hand, perhaps Cramer is saying that because CME house price futures for DC show a flattening starting before the end of this year?
http://www.recharts.com/cme.html
contrarion - I agree that house prices will drop significantly from peak levels in our area. In the vast majority of our area, they have already fallen anywhere from 20% to 60%. But you still haven't answered my challenge to pick a local area house and support it's value at 10% of peak prices. Let's see some numbers and calculations in arriving at that value.
Cara, I'm with you in certain ways. Lower prices favor savers, which I am one, as long as one keeps their job and the same wage.
I'd like another chance to get back into stocks and housing at lower prices--but I don't want to lose the online-banking that I'm currently happy with. (But, if the bank were taken over by the FDIC, I wonder if a typical depositor would be able to tell at least at first, from the standpoint of ATMs, features, etc, unless it was actually shut down rather than kept and later sold.)
And, I also don't want 25% unemployment, a cut in wages, riots, food lines, empty ATMs, or the rest of the Black Swan scenario...
"Contrarian said...
How can you be ordered not to release something you don't have?.
'Nuff said."
Each bank certainly knows how IT did with respect to the stress test (thus the Treasury telling them not to report how THEY did).
However, I seriously doubt each bank does not know how all the OTHER banks did. Thus no bank can announce the results of THE stress test because no single bank has THE stress test.
Isnt that the simpler answer here?
Contrarian--
Who are you saying is lying?
The Federal Reserve has completed the stress test results but sworn the banks to secrecy.
The Treasury has not received the results from the Federal Reserve yet.
The Treasury is not the same thing as the Federal Reserve.The Treasury is a cabinet department supported by taxes and run by presidentially appointed Geithner, and before than, Paulson.
The Federal reserve is a private institution run by bankers and supported by member banks, but run by presidentially appointed Bernanke.
(The fact that it's a pseudo-governmental hen house run by banker foxes and headed by an appointee beholden to the government is why there are lots of people trying to get it abolished!
Also, lately Bernake/Paulson and Bernanke/Geithner HAVE been working very closely together, which makes BOTH taxpayers AND bankers nervous...)
So, if the Fed hasn't told Treasury the results, where are you getting this LIE stuff??????
but prices do not follow without wage deflation. Even without credit, installment sales contracts/owner financing with baloon payment terms will returnPrices will tend to fall if there are wage falls--but there is a limit to this in the D.C. area.
Prices will tend to fall if there is oversupply, and sellers have to compete mainly on price, and buyers no longer have to compete. (Especially given the growth of rows and rows of nearly identical same-age units.) This has happened in the D.C. area but there is a limit to this also here.
Prices will tend to fall if money supply becomes tight--not really possible right now.
Prices will tend to fall if credit is tight, and this has been true, but there is a limit to this because the way banks make money is extending credit.
House prices will tend to fall if sellers (including banks with foreclosure inventory) need the money more than they need the hard asset and/or investment. This has been somewhat true but will stop/reverse if the Fed overshoots on money supply creation and stimulus.
House prices will tend to fall if buyers need the money more than the place to live and the square footage, which is why I think even health care costs, the commodities/energy spike, and looming baby boomer retirements have had a hand in breaking the back of the house bubble. But we're relieved of this somewhat right now.
House prices will tend to fall if credit is too expensive--not so true right now but if Treasuries default and/or the dollar crashes this could contribute big time to the Black Swan scenario.
Contrarian,
I agree with you that local/state governments are a thing to watch.
If they start laying people off and/or raising property/sales taxes because they can't finance their pension liabilities, debt, and cash flow with bonds, a lot of places will be in trouble and those housing markets will then really be in a hurt.
I think bond yields are low right now, which helps the cost of municipal financing but makes pension liabilities worse and makes less of a market for the bond offerings.
Which is why they always say "watch the bond market" for economic cues. First, it's a lot bigger than the stock market. Second, if investors around the world stop being willing to buy Treasuries and U.S. corporate and municipal debt, interest rates will back up, dollar will fall, commodity prices will rise, and we could be in real trouble.
(If my posts taken as a whole sound like I'm schizophrenic about this stuff--it's because I am!)
"Contrarian said...
I simply do not believe Helicopter Ben can stop one (deflation) by implementing the other (dropping $$$$)."
Contrarian, lets be clear here. Are you saying he "cant" stop deflation, or he "wont" stop deflation?
If you are saying he "wont", fair enough - here we are talking about political restraints and the like. I disagree vehemently with you, but I understand your point.
If you are saying he "cant", I can most certainly assure you this isnt correct. If he sends out enormous checks to everyone in the country - and says hes going to keep doing it til deflation stops - thats it - boom - deflation over - massive inflation starts right away - home prices start increasing right away. This is basic supply and demand - there is no getting around this...
Im not saying this is likely right now. Current washington consensus is that enough has been printed and injected into M1 to keep deflation in check. However, if there isnt, why wont he simply do what he promised to do in this position paper from 2002:
"But the U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or, today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at essentially no cost. By increasing the number of U.S. dollars in circulation, or even by credibly threatening to do so, the U.S. government can also reduce the value of a dollar in terms of goods and services, which is equivalent to raising the prices in dollars of those goods and services. We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation."
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES/2002/20021121/default.htm
Sorry, broken link - lets try that again...
http://www.federalreserve.gov/BOARDDOCS/SPEECHES
/2002/20021121/default.htm
Again, he can stop it tomorrow if the govt decides to stop it. Most extreme example of "helicopter drops" is Zimbabwe - unemployment is rampant, the govt is on the verge of collapse, etc. However, because of the currency printing, man woman and child has literally billions of Zimbabwe dollars and a typical house price in Zimbabwe rises 27,000% per year.
So understanding he "can" prevent deflation by printing, tell me why you wont think he "wont" prevent it as wages drop 10-20 even 50%?
Sorry - that should be "EVERY man woman and child has literally billions of Zimbabwe dollars"
Also, it looks like I mispoke when I said home prices rise 27,000% per year. Accordaing to wikipedia, they rise 516 quintillion per cent per year.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zimbabwe#Economy
Again, not saying it will ever be like that here - and if Bernanke prints he will certainly cause other problems for the US economy. However, if a deflationary spiral sets up, and wages are falling 10-20 50%, why wont he just do what he said he would do - long before prices drop 90%?
Crt,
Your view that the Fed can prevent deflation is the view shared by most economists. Of course, there is a fine line between preventing deflation and causing hyper inflation, and even Bernanke, with all his access to the data that other people don't have, cannot time it perfectly. He may stop stimulating too soon or may stay on it too late and cause too much inflation. After all, Bernanke is the guy who said, cluelessly, that there was no housing bubble and that 'subprime is contained.' So I wouldn't put too much faith in his ability to handle it well.
Regardless, that the Fed can always stop deflation is the correct view. Dogmatic wave theorists like Contrarian are wrong in their denial of it. They are stuck with theories developed in an era when there were no central banks. Moreover, they lose all credibility when they have to link to nut cases like Turner.
NY Times, the rain in SpainSpain which has tied itself to the monetary policies of the whole continent, is not so lucky however...
Do you really think Germany, which sees itself as already on the road to recovery, letting the interest rate go to zero for the sake of Spain?
Maybe the Euro wasn't such a grand plan afterall. Anyone remember the original motivation for a single european currency and whether it had anything to do with monetary policy? (I suppose I could wiki it couldn't I)
Another thing most people are not talking about is that some inflation is already here--to keep the illusion of stagnant prices, retailers are packing smaller quantities for the same price. I was wondering that no economist was talking about it, but recently Marketwatch economist Irwin Kellner seems to have made this point as well.
"Ted K said...
So I wouldn't put too much faith in his ability to handle it well."
I agree Ted. I believe Mr. Bernanke has the best of intentions, however I have little faith it will be handled "well", just that it will be handled. The economy is like a huge ship. You have to turn the wheel long before you want the ship to respond. Whether we make the right turn or not remains to be seen, but there is no doubt the captain has turned the wheel - and can turn it alot harder if necessary.
Like you said, the wave theorists who wont address the power and stated goal of the fed to tackle deflation baffle me. You could construct a semi-credible situation where political constrains prevent Ben from printing too much and we will get 90% deflation. However, you never hear that from the wave theorists, its just allways a never ending liquidity trap/deflationary spiral as if no one can do anything to prevent it. It just makes no sense...
Cara,
Please don't lump all of Springfield together. That Afton Glen home is 5 miles from the Springfield Mall. All of Kingstowne is closer to the mall and Franconia/Springfield than that neighborhood. This neighborhood is only 2.5 miles from the Pohick library in Burke.
Also, that neighborhood is actually elevated above the parkway. It is also located on the bike trail side so it is sits further back from the parkway than other neighborhoods in the vicinty.
The Ft. Belvoir housing is being replaced, but there will be no net increase in the number of housing units than there was. The housing must be at a capacity now, because Ft. Belvoir elementary School is bursting at its seams. BRAC has already brought more workers to Ft. Belvoir than were there before the re-building began. Also, an enormous new hospital is being built at Ft. Belvoir as some of the Walter Reed personnel will be coming there.
Considering that this home sold for 234k in 1999, I find it hard to believe that it would go that low now. Last month, someone paid 450k(regular sale) for the same model down the street. While 450k is probably too much, 200k is much too low.
hayfield grad
it was a joke. Yes, with bits of truth thrown in, but it wouldn't be funny otherwise would it?
hayfield grad
But in all seriousness the article GiGi pointed to last week said that before the improved housing, occupancy at Ft. Belvoir was only 40%. And the increases in it's personnel as detailed by someone else's link recently weren't very impressive, like on the order of 5000, a lot of whom will probably commute there via the convenient metro, not move to the area.
but in all honesty, I'd probably be quite happy with that place for $300k not the $200k of my "if the world goes to heck in a hand-basket scenario".
Here is another post from our leak source -- Mr. Hal Turner -- basically the US is secretly printing this replacement currency and shipping it to China in bulk.
http://halturnershow.blogspot.com/2008/10/i-have-obtained-actual-amero-from.html
According to his posts, this all has something to do with the "filthy tribe of Zionists who are responsible for this most massive theft in the History of the Earth" and "Must be hunted to extinction".
Wow, what an unbelivable, repugnant and downright disgusting blog. Contrarian, please tell me you dont subscribe to this sort of thing. I dont think you do, but I urge you to vet your sources more carefully. I almost feel bad providing the link less I am inadvertently spreading this guys hateful propaganda.
Postings from Jim (Dow 36,000) Dent and Robert (the depression starts in 1991) Precther are one thing, but to think there is any credibility to anything this disgusting human says is beyond me.
I think you mean Jim Glassman for Dow 36000. H.S. Dent said other various guesses, some of which haven't come true, or haven't yet.
All are excellent ways to risk and sometimes lose a lot of money...
"I think you mean Jim Glassman for Dow 36000. H.S. Dent said other various guesses, some of which haven't come true, or haven't yet."
Oops! You are right, I meant Harry Dent who Contrarian sometimes cites. Hes the guy who interpreted the scriptures of the wave to suggest that the dow would hit 40,000 by now.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid={7BF5D98A-0D62-4502-9972-3983E49E490A}&dist=¶m=archive&siteid=mktw&garden=&minisite=
Dent is not to be confused with other wavers who predicted here that Y2K would trigger a global downturn rivaling the plague of black death
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/mbutler120299a.html
Regardless, the problem as I see is the inability to vet sources. In my world, once someone makes a horrendously bad financial call, (like Robert Precther's call of the depression starting in 1991) I am very reluctant to cite them again. Moreover, it appears that Contrarian's newest source is a raging hatemonger, filled with consipracy theories about the jews.
The single uniting thing to all of his posts is pessimism - the type of pessmism that attracts the most radical fringe elements of society. If Contrarian wants to continue to cite these sources, and thereby directly or indirectly associate himself with their views, then fine. I for one however think its important for others here to understand that the sources we are talking about here come from the extreme fringe of society.
Also, thats not to say that anyone pessimistic should be ignored. Guys like Nouriel Rabini, I get, Guys like Peter Shiff I get. Same thing with Meredith Whitney. I dont agree with everything they say. but I respect all their views til they are proven wrong.
However, none of them have to my knowledge been spewing venom about the Jews, or saying other things that make me want to puke. If they were, I think I might just think differently about citing them.
contrarian said: "I don't need to pick "a local area house" to prove my point."
This is exactly the response I expected. A prediction without absolutely no substance behind it.
contrarian,
Lots of substance? So far you haven't produced any evidence that shows why houses in our area are properly valued at 10% of peak prices. You've posted lots of predictions, but not an ounce of substance to back them up.
Again, feel free to pick a local area house and crunch the numbers to show everyone why it's only worth 10% of peak prices. That is your best and only shot at making a convincing argument.
"Contrarian said...
The Anonymous, it's not pessimism. It's reality. Sometimes reality is not good news."
Right - thats why I said, I listen very carefully to guys like Nouriel Roubini & Peter Shiff.
"But I choose to live in reality (wolf) instead of living with the wool pulled over my eyes (sheep)."
Does your version of reality involve Ameros secretly being shipped to China in exchange for dollars, and this somehow being connected to the "filthy tribe of Zionists who are responsible for this most massive theft in the History of the Earth" and "Must be hunted to extinction".
http://halturnershow.blogspot.com/2008/10/i-have-obtained-actual-amero-from.html
Is that your version of reality?
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