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Today's Humor Break.
Wednesday, April 15, 2009
Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 4/15/2009
Posted by Harriet at 6:00 AM
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30 comments:
More humor from patrick.net:
For dummies
Cara,
Submitted by Lance?
presumably it's a different lance. But he did always kind of have a sense of humor.
Theres a kinda portly mustachioed "office space" looking guy on the bubblemeter blog who goes by the handle "Lance's Smart Money". I would like to think that was the true "90% of the area is stagnant or up" Lance.
Very good!
I was looking at a couple of houses and wanted to get a second opinion on the asking prices.
http://franklymls.com/FX6985088
http://franklymls.com/FX7023821
I like both of these properties, but think both are asking to high. Am I crazy to think the first one should be in the $250K-$270K range and the second should be in the $370-$380K
housebuyer,
1st off, click on the tax assessment button from frankly to get to the FFX assessor from which you can then click on neighborhood sales to get a quick sense of the going price for those neighborhoods.
The second one is more richly updated than the first, but it is also more of a lipstick on a pig thing, based on the outside... I mean it's an ugly TH that they way way overdid the inside on, so I wouldn't overpay for that. It looks a tad bigger, and if you like those finishes, then maybe it's worth 30k more than the first one, tops!. Don't pay extra for other people's taste and choices.
Intrinisically?? I would say niether are worth more than $270k. But I'm not familiar with that area. Hopefully someone with more local knowledge will chime in.
I take part of that back. The littler one is only 2 bedroom and 2 levels, so quite a bit smaller. so subtract $30-40k for the intrinsic differences as well as the $20-30k difference in upgrades.
(which means I think the littler one is worth no more than $220k intrinsically, and that's being generous IMO)
Of course keep in mind, I also haven't bought anything yet...
Cara thanks for the thoughts. Yeah I don't really like the outside of the second one, but I like the inside and it is right next to the Vienna metro, which makes the location worth more. I am not really sure why the tax assessment is so high on the little one.
Housebuyer,
I don't know that area well enough to comment on prices, but I would say watch out for the condo fees. The first one has a fee of $355/month, which is quite high, particularly if it's not covering utilities and such. With interest rates as low as they are, an extra $355/month can get you much more for your money in mortgage dollars.
Water's Edge unit is priced in line with recent comps of $350,000 (3/09); $360,000 with $7K seller paid closing costs (9/08) but note that the $355 condo fee is increasing by $40 per month to cover costs of replacing decks and other capital repairs outside reserve funds. Big attraction is that it is an enclave with a small pond/lake surrounded by not so great Bailey's Crossroads and the big Mosque which jams traffic on Friday. However, it is close to South Arlington with access to Pentagon, Crystal City, airport.
Vienna t/h is priced higher because of renovations (like them or not). Aug 2008 foreclosure sale was at $320,000 and Dec 08 sale of long time rental was $340,000.
t/h is not within walking distance of Vienna metro but is in desirable Oakton High district which probably drives prices up for single moms who have few alternatives in the Vienna/Oakton single family housing market
Someone please explain this to me:
Condo goes on the market today for 300k. That same day, the listing agent changes price to 250k. Later on in the day, the listing agent changes the price to 380k
What in the HELL is going on?!?!?
Everyone thanks for the info it was very helpful
What in the HELL is going on?!?!?Maybe the listing agent has Multiple Personality Disorder?
Pacman,
Listing agent is a busy busy person(or an incompetent dofus).
I've seen ones with a misplaced zero not getting fixed for a week. Yes, 2,690,000 for a TH. So, 2 changes in one day is unusual, but it's probably just one typo and one miscommunication. (or putting up two properties at once and mixing up the prices and/or property info).
Intrinisically?? I would say niether are worth more than $270k. But I'm not familiar with that area.Well, I know nothing about Falls Church, the DC area, or housing in general, but I'm going to say you'd be a fool to pay more than $120k for either of those. That's what they'd go for if they were in NE Colorado...
IBC,
I don't know if you were just making a joke, but the perspective is just as true. You can easily argue that the structure portion is only worth $120k (perhaps a bit more due to higher construction costs here), and then add on the land.
My $270k estimate was taking the $220k I think they'd be worth in Burke based on rents and maintenance costs/HOA fees and adding a $50k premium (at semi-random) for being in Vienna/Falls Church instead. It is not, however, what you'd need to pay to buy them right now though.
Weekly Mortgage applications down despite lower rates 1 month doesn't make much a of a trend, and 1 week even less so. But this is really just color for my prognostication for the stress tests.
Here's my prediction. The stress tests and Q1 earnings will both show that the 19 major banks are all in viable condition. Not necessarily stellar, but not "zombie banks" under the "more adverse"(actually nominal) case. The DOW/S&P 500 will soar up at least another 5-10%. Then, come July or August when the spring buyers have bought, and more importantly, everyone who can refi has already done so, the tap of fast cash from closing fees will dry up. And one of the giants will falter and need to go into recievership. And that will be what makes the markets retest their lows and then some.
How likely is this? Well, the refi's drying up is a sure thing, that's just a question of time, so 90% on that part. Times 60% chance that all of the banks passed the stress test this time around, Times 80% chance that if some of them barely passed that they'll go under once the free money stream trickles down. Eh, so only 43% chance of the whole thing coming true. Not much of a prognostication. Of course, if one or more of the banks fail this time, it will just crash sooner.
Anyone else care to hazard a guess?
Cara,
I agree with your analysis, also have to remember, that right now some people still do cash-out refis, so that will support the consumption for a while, but in 6 months it will gone...
Cara,
I don't think all the banks pass the stress test right now regardless. The question is who they throw to the wolves in an effort to demonstrate that they are 'serious' about saving the rest of them. As much as I'd love for it to be one of the top dogs, it's probably going to be someone middle of the pack.
The rest of your analysis seems solid. I'm just frustrated by the possibility of another huge rally in between me and the retest of the lows.
xpovos,
alright so you've got dibs on someone actually "failing" the stress tests. If that's the case, I say the data won't be released until a buyer is already in place, hence the delay until May. So, one of the big 19 will be eating another of the big 19, and they just have to figure out whom. Hopefully there will still be a short receivership time during which the FDIC cleans up the closing bank before force feeding it to the buyer. Given the buyer's precarious position, and simultaneous stress test results announcement, that's gonna be needed.
Don't worry, this bear rally is a great time to reallocate your risks if there's anything weak you'd like to dump. Getting in at the bottom isn't crucial except for day traders given the probable L-shaped recovery.
A couple of ones that interested me:
http://franklymls.com/AR6886041
Colonial on Carlin Springs, N of 50 in Arlington. Was on the market for over 6 months. Went to the open house a couple of months ago. Couldn't believe how small it felt. And the 2/1 isn't a lie. Still, it was listed at $519k and eventually was reduced to $475k before going under contract. I'm very curious to see what it went for.
http://franklymls.com/FX7030234
22042 Falls Church (Fairfax Co.). I am following this neighborhood and the surrounding ones very closely. This is an instance where the assessment does no justice to the house. Went from $523k to $325k in two years. But it is a ton better than the other $320ish houses in the area. But still, asking $539k for a house when in an area with a healthy supply of foreclosures and short sales in the $200s is probably wishful thinking.
Well as far as this one,
http://franklymls.com/FX7023821
400k is a joke.
If you look at the sales records back in Sept. some "investor" bought it for ~240k. We'll suppose that they put in 60k in upgrades (I think that is extremely generous). That means that at 400k you are paying the investor company 100k or more just for the privilege of them upgrading it for you.
I personally say 240k is too high, but given this area, whatever. 400k is just ludicrous.
Seriously people, in what and where do you think half of the population lives. If ~100k is the median household income over half the population cannot afford a townhouse in Fairfax . . . it's not even inside the Beltway! Where does half the population live . . . in a cardboard box?
If a townhouse is worth 400k, then a condo on the low side would be 300k, @#$ even at 300k this population's income can't support it.
If you want to plop down 400 grand for that pos (townhouses, while serve a function IMO are pos's and not for raising a family) . . . have at it, you've got more money than brains . . . and you will soon have neither.
Fred, that first one is very small ~ 1000 square feet. As a long term rental there is obviously a lot of work to be done, some of which may not be obvious. In bubble days, I'd say it would be a prime tear-down candidate. But now, I don't think so, because of its poor (for N. Arl.) location and small lot size. Carlin Springs, is very busy with speeding cars. This lot is too close to Rte. 50 and too far away from the metro. Zoning restrictions adopted since the bubble peak may prevent a sizable house from being built on that small lot.
Do you have a prediction about the selling price? I'd guess close to $420K.
Fred,
For the second house you listed, I watch that neighborhood too. A friend just purchased a bank owned property in that area for just over 300.
At their asking price, they're basically asking you to buy the most expensive house in the cheapest neighborhood you can afford. A bit of a twist on the old wisdom, no? :)
My $0.02
Fred and Ace: For the Falls Church house, they had it on the market in 2007 for $599,000 and it did not sell. They probably put it back on now because a stone cape in the neighborhood listed at $425,000 just sold quickly.
Speaking of neighborhood sales sparking another sale: the colonial on Carlin Springs which had been around for a while benefited from the sale of the rambler a few blocks away on Carlin Springs. Rambler went on the market last week and 5 offers later was bid up above the asking price of $450,000. Two of the people who did not get the rambler bid on the colonial. I'll take the bet on the $420,000 selling price -- because it sold for way more.
Well, Anielarke, I have to disqualify you from my better competition since you already have inside information!
Thanks for sharing it with us. How far off was I?
"better" should have been "betting"
Whoo! I have dibs on a bad situation.
I agree, though, when they announce the results, and someone as failing, they'll also be announcing the take-over at the same time. There's going to be a lot of backroom dealing on that.
Most of my investment money is in the hands of 'wiser' heads than mine. I've got a small play account (tax refund money), but the bulk of my stocks are owned via mutual funds. That doesn't give me a lot of flexibility though.
anilarke,
Good info. I was wondering what happened to the rambler on Carlin Springs. Having that go over bid is a little discouraging I must say. Since you seem to be "in the know", any word on the $425k house near Target? I went to the original open house with heavy foot traffic, then was surprised to see they had scheduled another one.
http://franklymls.com/AR7014623
In referring to the stone cape at $425k, I assume you are talking about the one on Summerfield. That was actually a reduction from $449k where I think they de-listed and relisted. It'll be interesting to see the final on that one. But you are right, it went quick after the reduction.
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