Here is an inventory chart that includes the "Jim Ratio", assuming that the difference between "active" and "total" is in fact "pending" according to these numbers at Virginia MLS.
The Jim Ratio is Realtor/Blogger Jim Klinge's ratio of the number of active listings, divided by the number of pending listings.
Score Guide
under 3 -- Hot market
3-4 -- Regular market
4-5 -- Market in trouble
5-7 -- Too many choices, buyers are winning
7+ -- Freefall
Caveats: This isn't a perfect measure for our current market because of the high number of REO sales; also, it is likely that many "pendings" will not make it to closing.
These inventory numbers were extrapolated from VirginiaMLS.com. The total "Northern Virginia Inventory" represent the combined housing inventory (that's listed on the MLS) of Alexandria City, Arlington County, Fairfax City, Fairfax County, Falls Church City, Loudoun County, Manassas City, Manassas Park City, and Prince William County.
Update: (h/t CR) Jim the Realtor gets a story in the LA Times!
Thursday, April 2, 2009
Current Inventory and the "Jim Ratio"
Posted by Harriet at 9:49 AM
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36 comments:
Harriet said...
"Caveat: This isn't a perfect measure for our current market because of the high number of REO sales."
I think you should add another caveat in that for whatever reason, alot of these pendings just arent going to closing.
I think too there is some overcounting because we see some properties go pending, then fall out of contract, only to be re-listed and then become pending again.
It does show that buyers are out there - no doubt about it. But the closing part is still what worries me. Until that improves, I see some potential problems especially for the close in areas.
The total inventory numbers are still interesting regardless.
down dramatically in PWC. down a tad in FFX and Alex, mostly flat in Arlington (YoY)
I don't know what Jim Klinge's quant expertise is, but he seems to be the only realtor out there with a clue.
doesn't make sense to me. how can we be in a "hot market" with price declines at its largest yet.
My PWC observations:
Nothing is coming on the market.
<$350K is going under contract like hotcakes.
>$500K keeps dropping asking prices, to no avail. No one is buying.
Many of the listings that go under contract do not close.
So SEGMENTS of the market are white-hot, but in a somewhat fake way.
For what it's worth, I'm starting to see houses from last year relisting this year.
Tabitha..which zips are you watching? 20110,20111,20112..since3/23 have had 8 go under contract..nothing over 500 is available in any of the Woodbridge zips except 1 or 2 new builds and Gainsville has numerous like 7 or 8 million plus go under contract..high end in Gainsvilles and Haymarket are popping like crazy. Most are selling over 08 assessments. the 300,000 and under SFH sells before list if the agent has plenty of contacts. I know 2 people that have been trying since last summer to buy a foeclosure and haven't successful yet. I hope you close soon because buyers are now going through expired listings looking for sellers.
MI paying out only 60% on claims held by Freddie Fannie and BofA
I'm telling you the days are coming when FHA and 20% down are the only two options. Mortgage insurance is going the way of the dodo.
(too bad everyone in my price range qualifies for FHA)
arkey--
20110, 20111, 20136, 20181
Since I have been distracted by our purchase and the upcoming move, I have not been watching as carefully. But for >$500K, I see at least 10 price drops for every "under contract." Just now, I did a clumsy Redfin experiment: first, a >$500K map search over roughly PWC, then "exclude under contract." 289 listings became 259. And many of those come back on the market. That's 10 MOI even if they all closed.
And for Woodbridge, that's where I still see new listings coming on. Manassas City is particularly dead.
Our sellers are getting a sweet deal. But I will be reassured when we get an actual closing date. Since when was that so hard to do--set a closing date, I mean?
And what happens to your rate lock if the bank's underwriting is not done through no fault of your own?
maybe thats the difference. I don't use redfin..I use Frankly and other stuff..we have less than 730 homes "open" for sell in the >400 to max in the county. I'm talking with realtors and such plus potential buyers.
tabitha,
they honor it if they can. but rates are still dropping, so you should be okay (i.e. they'll be happy to honor it since they're now offering even lower...)
cara,
thank you. i'd love to ditch the lock and take what's going on now, but do i need to pay for the lock if i don't use it?
Tabitha - didnt you use Navy Federal or USAA?
If you did, dont worry about their underwriting - if they approved you for that amount you will close.
A lot of other lenders use that as an excuse to jack the rate. Ya know, 2 days before closing and - "Sorry, underwriting said you didnt have x or y to get that rate - but we can get you 1.5% higher! :)"
Now the home appraisal- that might be an issue if that falls through. Both of those lenders hire legit appraisers. I have a friend who has a loan through USAA and he has been turned down twice on refi's due to lost equity. I feel bad for him - bought at the peak for 400k+, now worth less than 200k.
tabitha,
uh. generally, yes... look at the paper you signed to get the lock to find out the terms. if you're still going with the same bank, then I don't think they'll let you out of the rate lock. You did quite well, I wouldn't sweat the small stuff.
Tabitha,
I'm sure closing offices are swamped. With refis especially. Hang in there.
I recall reading a short while back that almost anybody other than Navy Federal or USAA will screw you. Does anybody know about this? My broker is at Wells Fargo. Recommended by my father, but I'd like to be as adverse to getting screwed as possible.
Kevin,
I've never had any problems with brokers that have been recommended to me.
somebody help me out here...
this home sold for how much?
MM,
seems like 500k, more than the list price. seems that for some people having a single-family home in nice condition in this area is a big deal. and 500k seems like a good price to them. this house is nice, but it is tiny, tiny, tiny.
NEXT BAILOUT: FHA
WASHINGTON -- Rising mortgage defaults could force the Federal Housing Administration to seek a taxpayer bailout for the first time in its 75-year history, housing officials and lawmakers said during a Senate hearing Thursday.
If defaults drain the FHA's insurance fund, the Obama administration will have to decide whether to ask Congress for taxpayer money or raise the premiums it charges to borrowers. That decision will be spelled out in President Barack Obama's 2010 budget, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan told lawmakers.
"We are looking very closely at that issue -- at the premiums that we charge, at the losses that we have," Mr. Donovan said.
The New Deal-era agency has become the main source of financing for buyers who can't make a big down payment or who want to refinance but have little equity. Most lenders have sharply curtailed credit to those borrowers unless their loans can get backing from a government agency. The FHA's market share jumped to nearly a third of all mortgages in the fourth quarter of 2008 from about 2% in early 2006, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication.
Borrowers who make at least a 3.5% down payment can qualify for a 30-year fixed-rate loan backed by the FHA, which insures lenders against defaults on mortgages.
Rising defaults are now eating through the FHA's cushion of reserves. Roughly 7.5% of FHA loans were seriously delinquent at the end of February, up from 6.2% a year earlier. The FHA's reserve fund fell to about 3% of its mortgage portfolio in the 2008 fiscal year, down from 6.4% in the previous year. By law, it must remain above 2%.
Asked at the hearing whether the FHA would need a bailout, HUD Inspector General Kenneth M. Donohue said he couldn't predict. "Based on the numbers we're seeing, I think it's going in the wrong direction," he said.
http://tinyurl.com/d9gx6l
Cara, have you looked at properties like these instead of TH's in Burke? I thought I posted this but I guess the Internet must have hiccuped.
http://franklymls.com/PW6599030
http://franklymls.com/MP7015452
http://franklymls.com/PW6599030
Nothing says 'half-assed' like a Juliette balcony.
Oh, Cara, if I could sell you on the townhouses by the VRE in Manassas or Manassas Park, you would be set! You could come and swing on one of the tree swings in my front yard--I'd only be a couple miles away ;)
Seriously, the Mulder Court house is in the same neighborhood as a couple of my friends--quiet and pretty, with a huge park across the street with a waterpark in it. Also, that side of Manassas is growing, with truly attractive shopping complexes sprouting like weeds. The VRE is less than a mile away.
Yes, you're out here in the boonie slums, compared to the urban feel of the closer-ins, but the VRE keeps you connected, and there are amazing private schools in the Manassas area. And truly, much of the area has remarkably cleaned up, reclaimed from those who did not care about the community. Roseberry Farm is a nice neighborhood.
If Cara would come join us, I think she would find her neighbors more inline with her educational and professional background. Of those 2 with a 1,000 difference is a million dollars worth of difference. I'd highly recommend that Cara not buy in Blooms Crossing or anywhere with an MP address. Her children will go to MP schools not Prince William which I personally think rival FX. The other sub-division is a winner all around. If they had any problems, they were few and far between where BC is/was IMHO close to 80% with lots of investors coming in to rent properties. VRE has stimulus money. If your employer is part of the metro check system..ya gets 100% of the commute till at least 2011. Thats tax free moolah.
Thanks all,
but while my husband can comfortably take the VRE (and would be doing so from Burke) there's absolutely no good public transit option to my workplace. (It would literally take over 2.5 hrs each way) So, no, I have to drive and I'm not driving that far. With two parents working and day care I can't afford to lose more hours out of my day away from my (at the moment still imaginary) kids.
Are you working in Maryland? Are you sure that you can't take a non-I66 route to 495 and save a lot of time?
Anacostia.
Right now I have a 20 minute commute just hopping up to 495 from Kingstowne at Van Dorn, Burke will add another 10-15ish. I'm not giving these up. I had the 45 minute commute from Rockville down to Anacostia, and the difference between 45 and 20 is night and day. Why? because occasionally 20 turns into 30 or 40, but 45? Can turn into 2 hours and often is 1:15. The further you go, the more places can get snarled and mess you up. It's one thing to do it for 2 years or so while renting if you have a good reason, it's another thing entirely to tie yourself to it by buying.
I don't guess you can work at home at all? Many people don't mind the commute because they only have to do it 2-3 times a week.
Max work-from-home time is 1 day aweek.
Well, hopefully you can find your dream townhouse in Burke. I happened to see those two houses and thought it might be a good alternative for you since they are already move in ready but it sounds like they wouldn't be. The main advantage to a house is that you would have more yard for future children to run around in and that they (usually) recover value after a downturn faster than a townhouse or condo.
Maybe the townhouses will continue to fall in price. Even if they don't, it's unlikely that prices are going to suddenly rebound. I'd guess that at the very worst all we'd see would be a stabilization of prices until the jobs market recovers.
Jeff,
Thanks. Those were very cute, absolutely in our price range, and probably a good value. But I'm pretty sure we'll be able to find a TH we can be very happy in in Burke for under $250k, if not this year, then next. With the number of price drops I keep seeing, I think it will be sooner rather than later. Things are still going under contract for well north of $250k, but that just means that there are buyers ready to pay that, not that that's a stabilizing price level... I will be very surprised if T doesn't get an offer after this weekend with the gorgeous weather we have in store, but that's not inconsistent with us getting a bargain later.
Maybe you can make an offer on something like this? Come in with an offer 10% below asking and wait for their counter-offer?
http://franklymls.com/FX6974083
(is this Jeff, Jeff Royce, otherwise known as my realtor?)
Anyway, yes, that's our basic plan, but we're not quite ready to start making offers yet. That one is indeed a real seller and move-in ready and within bidding distance of what we're willing to pay, which is why I feel we'll be able to find something this year. It doesn't meet all our preferences, but if you are Jeff R, then I'll be letting you know what those are soon, when we're ready to start looking in earnest.
Sorry, not the same Jeff. There are a lot of us (Jeff's) out here.
Just askin.
:)
But yeah, there are at least 6 TH's that meet all of our criteria, at least superficially, and are listed under $275k. So I think it's looking pretty good for us buying this summer.
One sort of nice thing about buying a TH? They're reasonably interchangeable or at least there's a good swath of TH's that have similar characteristics, so if one gets sold, there's pretty much always another one coming on the market that you'd like just as well. So, for instance, this one I'd been looking at has gone under contract:
http://franklymls.com/FX7012993
but even if they had bid it down to under $250k, I can't say I mind.
MM Look at the house around the corner on the exit ramp from Carlin Springs Rd to George Mason Dr. House came on market at $450,000 on Thursday, already has offers, winner announced after Sunday's open house. The refugees from the Arlington housing market have already begun to upgrade the prices in Fairfax Co with Falls Church mailing address with bidding wars. The short sales brought the prices down, the current crop of short sales is slowing down, must sell sellers (estates, relocations, divorces, new babies) are moving and pricing their non-short sale houses at short sale prices. The bidding wars are inching the prices upward.
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