Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
(h/t Cara) The Washington Post had its "Housing Review 2009" feature up this past weekend.
Monday, March 30, 2009
Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/30/2009
Posted by Harriet at 6:00 AM
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36 comments:
so, we're begining to begin to start to get serious about looking for a TH in Burke. The plan currently is to get preapproved 3 weeks from now and start house hunting after my mother-in-laws visit over the weekend of April 19th.
Our hesitations are, (1) trading the metro convenience for the better schools and lower prices of Burke, (2) that if we only waited one more year SFHs with space for in-law suites might become available in our price range (3) that there might be a lot more down-side risk on TH prices than we think there is because we've become acclimitized to the near metro prices.
Any last sage advice before we start our search in earnest?
Cara - my opinions are:
You can't put a price on quality of life or your kids education.
Prices in Burke have fallen a lot.
Even though it is "metro convenient", you could not convince me to buy a house near the Springfield metro. I have seen the affect it has had on that area since it has been built, and it has not been a good one.
If you are a growing family and looking for a deal as well as a great place to live for 5+ years, I would not put undue concern and worry on yourself about finding the perfect "bottom". Considering you think Burke has dropped a lot and is now quite reasonable, grab the incredible deals that are out now, with the inventory to choose from and the interest rates.
Activity is definitely picking up, we had a great weekend at my TH in terms of showings and other developments.
You know the market as good as anyone on here. If you are comfortable with how far Burke has fallen already compared to other cities such as Springfield and the Franconia area, I would definitely begin your "search in earnest" and have fun doing so.
Personally, I would trade my house value (not assessed value, but true market value) falling another $10-15k in the next year and not rebounding for 3 years for the quality of life with my family for those 3 years. After that, prices will improve, whether it is in 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 years, and you will have made money on your purchase and had that quality of life improvement.
Thanks T,
We're definitely in the "if we lose our downpayment so bet it" camp. It only took 3 years to build up, we can do it again if for some reason we're forced to sell sooner rather than later. It's just the REO's listed at $160, $190k that scare me. I don't want to buy them, because they're either really quite far from the VRE, teeny-tiny or need a huge investment in repairs. But I worry that spending anything over $250k now will feel really foolish if prices drop down to $230k from the collective weight of the defaults. But for now I'm hopeful that a lot of the price differences I'm seeing are "real" and reflect the variety in size, layout, location, crowdedness, back-yard views, maintanence and updates, rather than just, "we want you to overpay for our house".
Here's fingers crossed that the foot traffic translates quickly into a few good offers!!! Now that I've been looking at what's priced over 300k, I can really better appreciate how well you've priced your TH. It's such a good size and location, someone should grab it.
Cara - just a gut feeling, but 1 and 2 are legit concerns, but I wouldnt worry too much about 3.
Otherwise, no advice from me - you are probably the most prepared person on the planet! Good Luck.
Ted K - to answer your question, assuming you are buying in fairfax, you might want to contact this guy about a contract.
http://www.johncarterlaw.com/1177965.html
Note - just make clear all you want is a residential real estate contract drafted (i.e. no negotiation necessary). He should be able to do it and likely give you a flat fee quote. If for any reason you dont feel comfortable with him, ask for a referral in the area.
Terms you will need to tell him are:
1. the sellers name (including spouse or others on the title)
2. Property address at minimum, (a legal descripiton if you have one is better).
3. Price.
4. Deposit amount. (you may also want to see if he will act as the escrow agent and hold your deposit).
5. Transfer & recordation taxes (i.e. who pays - do you plan to split them)?
6. Contingencies. Do you want it subject to financing? A suitable home inspection?
There are likely several other things he will ask you, but if you know the answers to these issues before you contact him, it will make the process much more efficient.
Hey Cara,
Delurking here to share a few thoughts :-). We're military and have had three assignments here in the DC area during the last decade and have lived in Kingstowne, Franconia, and West Springfield near Burke (both before and after having kids). All areas had their plusses and minuses. My advice would be to look in both Burke and Kingstowne. While Burke schools definitely score higher than 22310 and 22315, I know several people with kids at Franconia, Lane, Hayfield ES and Island Creek that couldn't be happier. As for high schools, while Robinson, Lake Braddock and W. Springfield clearly score higher than Edison and Hayfield, it's awfully hard to tell what the difference will be when your yet-to-be-born children are high school age. The demographics of 22310 and 22315 have changed significantly in the last ten years as the area has grown. And, if you are anything like my family, you may discover once you do have kids you want to move up into a SFH. I know when my husband and I were childless (and then when the kids were small), we loved Kingstowne and Franconia (being able to walk to metro, grocery, restaurants, etc.).
On a final note, I'd also suggest trying the commute on VRE from Burke and see how it compares. I know my husband prefered Metro, but everyone is different!
So I'd say keep your options open until you look at properties in both areas. I don't think you'll be disappointed in either.
Thanks GiGi!!
We definitely need to have him actually take the VRE one day, and me drive all the way "home".
The thing with Kingstowne is that for similar properties the prices are easily 60k-70k higher than in Burke. Which makes the difference between, 1 salary could pay the mortgage on this now, and we need to build up an even bigger DP to be able to get the mortgage small enough to withstand any income shocks. So we'd have to buy something a lot smaller and older if we wanted to buy this year in Kingstowne. But I really will miss the area, mostly just the walking to the metro and hopping on the next train into DC part. Walking to restaurants and grocery stores is just as possible in the communities we're looking at in Burke.
Yeah, everyone keeps telling me that I'll want a SFH once my theoretical kids get bigger. But I grew up in a TH myself, and never really missed the SFH of my early childhood all that much. I just want to avoid the living on a 4 lane highway (2 each way) across from the freight-rail tracks aspect of my childhood home. But yes, we could very well move 10 years from now to optimize the school choice for high school and get a home we'd be comfortable even retiring in.
Cara,
We definitely loved the Kingstowne area, and the metro vs. VRE was a dealbreaker at the time for my husband (fewer VRE trains and more expensive, I think ... but you can drink your coffee on board, so that's a plus!). I hear you on the price, though -- you'll definitely get more bang for your buck in Burke (how alliterative)! It'll be interesting, however, to see what the spring inventory holds in terms of pricing.
Also, just FYI, if you weren't aware -- the Springfield Mall area is supposed to be going through some major changes over the next few years. It's a little sketchy there now at times, but the *plan* is to transform it into an urban town center. The details are at www.springfieldtowncenter.com.
In any case, I know where you're coming from -- husband and I rented in Kingstowne our first go-round here and ended up buying in Manchester Lakes as it was less expensive than rent. We spent a long time looking, running numbers, driving our realtor nuts, but it worked out well for our first place.
saw this listing for a burke TH
Price Reduced: 12/02/08 -- $200,000 to $175,000
Price Reduced: 12/11/08 -- $175,000 to $150,000
Price Increased: 03/12/09 -- $150,000 to $180,000
on market 140+ days...
Hit a couple of open houses on Sunday. One was the $425k house north of 50 in Arlington. Not shockingly, that was a well-attended Open. I have to think that I'm not the only one on here that made it to that one. The bizarre part was that there were these two guys, probably in their 20s, just sitting there watching tv as everyone walked around them (as an aside - way too much furniture for the size of the house). From the pictures on the wall, I'm guessing they were family members, but isn't the whole point to get out of there for the opening? I guess I could see staying if you really had some stuff that you didn't want stolen, but they weren't exactly "on the lookout".
Review of the house: small bedrooms, horribly placed fridge in a smallish kitchen, family rooms too narrow, and no real backyard. That said, the location was good, on a non-through street, not as much noise from 50 as I would have figured, and it wouldn't take too much work to spruce it up. A deck or screened in porch on the back would go a long way.
http://franklymls.com/AR7014623
Fred, could this have been on Sunday around 2:15pm?
Buck you mean this one:
http://franklymls.com/FX6919263
BATHROOM WILL BE READY BEFORE SETTLEMENT*RECENTLY RENOVATED STEP DOWN LR GIVES IT A VERY OPEN SPACIOUS FEELING*PERGO FLOOR IN LIVING & DINING*3 GOOD SIZED BRS W/GOOD CLOSET SPACE*FRESH PAINT INTERIOR*LOTS OF ATTIC STORAGE*FENCED YARD W/STORAGE CLOSET*NEW CARPET*2 BATHDROON IN UPPER LEVEL RENOVATED(NEW)
I think that either indicates that the renovations are now finished or just that it's spring. It's also a short sale, meaning any prospective buyer would have to "really" want it. But I definitely will be taking a look at these bargain basement properties to see if any of them are a steal rather than a money-pit.
Speaking of adding rooms/bathrooms:
http://franklymls.com/FX6994544
I went in this one right before I set the price on mine. It was $300k and 4 BR. As soon as we walked in the front door, gasoline fumes overpowered us. The owner came upstairs and my realtor asked why it smelled so bad. The guy had a generator running in the basement. We walked down there and he was barely started with roughing in the 4th bedroom in the basement. Although it could not even qualify as a bedroom once finished, as it had no window (egress) and no closet. Anyhow, he had it listed for about 21 days prior as "4 BR" yet he won't have that 4th one for a while, and it's not even legally a 4th one. He asked if I could help him move his generator outside for the fumes (which I did).
Aside from that, the house was in terrible condition. It is just surprising that people can advertise things, like having 1 more bedroom than there even is, and get away with it. I'm sure it happens all the time... it was just a humorous visit due to the circumstances of his 4th bedroom as well as the overall condition of his house. All the owner could do is keep laughing and telling us all about his new bedroom. I think he was getting too many fumes because everything was funny to him.
T,
We must have been there more like 2:30 or 2:45 on Sunday. Had to make a Target run first. Convenient location. ;)
Fred - I would 100% guess these two were watching the MSU/Lou NCAA BBall game. They probably were in their little "zone" and refused to leave because the tournament game was on TV. My guess is they would have been completely oblivious to anyone around them.
Okay, now I'd like to tap into the collective wisdom of folks on this board. As mentioned, husband's military. We've owned here in the past (pre-bubble and pre-transfer). We're back in the area on another assignment, but will most likely transfer out in a couple of years. We're currently renting. However, this area is where we will most likely settle when hubby retires from his military career. A year ago, the cost of renting was clearly less than owning, but now it's getting to a near break even point. So, the way I see it, we have three options:
1) Continue renting and look towards buying the "forever" home when husband retires in 5-7 years.
2) Buy a TH in a desirable area to live in while we are here, then keep as a long-term rental property.
3) Buy the house we'd like to live in upon retirement, live in it now, rent it out when if and when we are transfered, then move back in upon retirement (at which point the mortgage will be paid down 5-7 years, vs starting fresh with a new house/mortgage).
It seems to me the wild cards are potentially falling home values and/or rising interest rates in the future and inflation. That, and the prospect of being landlords, of course. Although, we know plenty of people who have successfully rented their homes to fellow service members with the intention of doing number 3 above.
Thoughts?
GiGi
If you can find a house you like that much at a good price, I would vote strongly for option 3. The key is it being at a price that you feel is historically reasonable. Given your strong familiarity with the region, you should be able to judge that pretty well.
OTOH, if you're talking a 30 year mortgage, 5 years in doesn't get you very much further than your downpayment did. It's tough to judge inflation that far out or economic conditions. But if you love the place and can easily afford it now, I don't see that much downside risk, over the possible risk of buying under high-inflation conditions 5 years from now. Basically it makes sense for now and has a large potential payoff of having fixed your costs low. Sounds like a win win.
Thanks Cara -- I'm of a similar mindset on number 3, but like you said only if it's well within our affordability level. We will keep watching the market. It's nice to come here for a reality check -- after several moves and a couple of kids the urge to nest can get pretty strong!
GiGi
As someone with a huge nesting urge myself right now (~33 and wanting to start a family soon, and sick of moving 4 times in the past 6 years) I may not be the right person to talk you out of it. But I applaud your willingness to rent as anything other than a last resort at your stage of life. Most people over 40 won't even consider it as an option except as a last resort or a planned stage during new home construction. Very open minded of you.
That was the part I liked about making the first 250k of capital gains on houses tax free as opposed to the one time thing. It allows people to rent without penalty if circumstance dictates that its the better plan.
Found a SFH in PWC that is in the wheelhouse for even my range, assuming we had the cash on hand for downpayment and closing costs.
The only thing that keeps me from jumping on the 'bottom' bandwagon for PWC is the fact that this is still a distressed sale. I don't think the bottom will truly set until the market has properly adjusted for all of this, and it's not just distressed houses going at these prices.
Cara,
Hate to tarnish the positive image, but I haven't quite passed 40 yet :-). I should restate the "retirement" part -- military retirement is after 20 years service, so we're looking at when to buy a home where we'll continue to raise the kids, husband will start his second career, etc. That said, I don't have a problem with waiting it out and renting until we're ready to start phase 2!
Fred: Ugh, I hate that canned music on those "virtual tours". Tacky, and a real PITA when it starts blaring at work.
Wow!
If we all felt like contrarian does, then I guess we would at the bottom.
"If we all felt like contrarian does, then I guess we would at the bottom."
Newsflash: Contrarian is right - we are in the middle of a severe economic crisis.
Who is ready to make some predictions about the month of sales for March?
"Tom (arlingtonva) said...
Newsflash: Contrarian is right - we are in the middle of a severe economic crisis."
Contrarian's views & predictions are shaped by his belief in the Elliott wave. Elliott wavers are the same people who predicted the Y2K computer problem would cause the world to implode, and think the upcoming depression will be worse for human society than was the plague of Black Death (circa 1320-1346).
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_99/mbutler120299a.html
Not saying hes wrong mind you. Just keep this in mind when you decide which piece of random advice you get on the internet to follow...
Cara,
I'm in West Springfield in the Orange Hunt/Hunt Valley/Sangster ES area. I like it here and will eventually look for an place in the area. Townhouses are in the mid 200s, whereas two years ago they were in the mid 400s. SFRs are still too high. Unless you want walking distance to Burke VRE station, don't discount this area.
Ralph
"We are not (and were not) in an X-wave as those authors suggested. Therefore, your entire attempt to connect Elliott wave to Y2K by constantly posting this article by these authors (who I have never heard of) makes you look really stupid. ;-)"
Well if you havent heard of Daan Joubert then clearly you dont know much about the Elliott Wave. Heres some of his work:
http://gold-eagle.com/research/joubertndx.html
So really, it comes down to the teachings of our lord and savior Ralph Nelson Elliott and which modern day prophets best describes the Elliott Wave Principle.
Contrarian tells us Jaan Doubert who interpreted the scriptures to say that y2K would be the precursor to the next major downturn is a false prophet. So really we have to decide which of the following prophets can tell us where we are in the Elliott Wave.
1. Robert Precther who interpreted the scriptures to say the great depression II starts in 1991.
2. AJ Frost who interpreted the scriptures to say that the great depression II starts in 1992.
3. Jim Dent who interpreted the scriptures to say that the dow would hit 40,000 by the end of 2008.
Take your pick :)
I know I know, all the calls were so good, its hard to decide which one of them is the real voice of Elliott.
crt, John Fontain,
Thanks very much for your advice. I will update you on how everything goes.
Sorry Contrarian - I just converted to the wave principal. As far as I can tell
Wave 4 ended with the long depression around 1879
Wave 5 ended with the inventon of the unicycle 1890
Wave A was the panic of 1907
Wave B ended with the popularity of the Charleston dance 1927-28
Wave C ended with the Great Depression. That was the end of the grand super cycle bear market. The new GSC bull market is only 50-60 years old now and we are now in a wave 2 (corrective) of this new GSC.
Thus we have 200 more years (at least) of good times ahead of us. investments in tadpoles, cold fusion technology, and select housing markets in parts of Fairfax, Arlington, Alexandria & DC will do well over that period.
ralph,
That is a really nice area, and friends of mine from work live there. But yes, we are looking for walking distance to the VRE. Trying to maintain the 1 car lifestyle... But at some point, as nasty as the traffic leaving the FS metro station is, it still might make sense to consider a place where we'd need to buy a second car sooner rather than later.
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