Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, on-topic ideas, and links here.
Happy Friday the 13th!
More fun for those of you with triskaidekaphobia:
From AP on today's $789B stimulus passage: "officials estimated it would mean about $13 a week more in people's paychecks this year" . . .Good thing it's not a cool $1,000,000,000,000, 'cause that has 13 digits . . .
35 comments:
Here are the Alexandria assessment maps going back to 2003.
@J@ Cool, more data!!!
okay, this is not really noteworthy in anyway, but just annoyed me:
http://franklymls.com/FX6969511
6028 BUTTERCUP CT
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22310 map
List Price: $329,900
Original Price: $339,900
08 Tax A : $394,170
Bed/Ba/Ba½: 3/3/1
MLS #: FX6969511
DOMm(p)? 16/59
County: FAIRFAX
Community: VAN DORN VILLAGE
from REMARKS:
*****BIG PRICE REDUCTION****WILL NOT LAST****
10k? 10k is your "big price reduction"? What are you trying to say here? Offers more than 5k less than list price need not be submitted? Your place is in a neighborhood that corners onto two major 4-6 lane roads. Similar places at the next metro stop are listed below $220k. Sure, those are smaller, but not that much smaller, and in a better neighborhood for raising kids as regards traffic, pollution and walkability.
The waves of emotion involved in wanting to buy a place. Today it's pure anger at each and every seller whose list price is more than 100k above what I personally think their place is intrinsically worth. Okay so this place is only maybe 75k above where it should be, but still. There are plenty of other more egregious listings, they just don't reach my inbox because they're outside of my price window.
"Today it's pure anger at each and every seller whose list price is more than 100k above what I personally think their place is intrinsically worth. "
ROFL!
Seriously you need to get a new hobby, life is too short.
Doug,
I'm here to entertain. :)
I guess I should take comfort in the fact that these jokers aren't really doubling their money (if they find a seller for near their price) because in all likelihood they'll be "moving up" into the completely overpriced next layer of the housing pyramid. So, it's not as if they're likely to keep that money.
CR: Attorney Layoffs
anyone familiar with these firms enough to know whether these have any presence in the DC metro area?
Cara,
I'm an attorney in DC, so this has definitely been hitting home - a number of those firms have significant DC presences, but it appears that the majority of cuts like that have been done in New York and other offices that are much more exposes to the swings of the capital markets and other parts of the finance community. That being said, there were a number of California firms and Philly firms that took hard hits as well.
And to think that a lot of those attorneys probably went into law over finance because of the "job security." Yikes.
crt--
would you mind posting the foreclosure #s you have for PWC this past fall, so I can fill in my missing data a little? just the hard # for each month.
here's a reposting of my yearly total foreclosures for PWC (from the Post, which cited RealtyTrac):
2008: 8,773
2007: 3,344
2006: 282
2005: 52
please note the the January total, 866, while down from December, is still higher than most months in 2008, so this year looks to be busy...
especially because PWC led the way in foreclosures largely because of subprime mortgages plus a large transient population. now those folks are gone, but the neighbors they left behind are staring at their houses having lost half their value. how long will they keep paying?
from another angle: economists continue to point out that housing led the way in this crisis, so the effects of the recession have yet to be felt. because of the huge amount of foreclosures that have already happened here, won't it be easier for more to follow?
I'm thinking of these neighbors:
http://franklymls.com/MN6979741
I think he lost his job. Nothing but foreclosures have sold in this neighborhood for the past two years, so they are selling in the low $200Ks or less, while in 2005, they were selling in the $500Ks. why should he keep paying for his (really pretty) house when it is worth less than half what he paid?
one last question for people who are good at math: how do you calculate total % down from a peak of $388,535:
2007: -12% YOY
2008: -24% YOY
2009: -47% YOY
the median sale price now is $136,500, so is that 136,500/388,535=35%, or 65% down from peak?
sorry, math is just not my strong point (cara, half of the reason I went to Brown was because I'd never have to take math again, God bless the open curriculum)
(I am going to feel the need to make insider Brown comments with you now. ;)
Hmm. Anybody know what this is about?:
PUBLIC NOTICE -- ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA
NOTICE IS HEREBY GIVEN THAT THE COUNTY BOARD OF ARLINGTON CO., VA, on February 21, 2009 in Room 307, 2100 Clarendon Blvd. at 9:00 A.M. or as soon thereafter as matters may be heard, will consider approving the following item and will hold a public hearing in accordance with Section 15.2-1800:
NOTE: Copies of proposed deed of trust may be examined in the Department of Management and Finance, Suite 501, 2100 Clarendon Blvd., Arlington, VA, 8 A.M. to 4:30 P.M. weekdays.
THE FOLLOWING ITEM WILL BE CONSIDERED BY COUNTY BOARD:
GRANT OF INTEREST IN REAL PROPERTY by County of Arlington, Virginia, on proposed conveyance of deed of trust on real property (contingent on acquisition of such property by County) known as Buckingham Village 3 (RPC No. 20023002) to secure financing to be issued for acquisition of such property.
Hope L. Halleck, Clerk to County Board
tabitha,
Your math is fine. It is indeed 65% down from peak.
See, who needs math courses? Brown was right. And we average out, you took none and I took 8. Between the two of us we might have a balanced education.
For what it's worth, I read through the section of the stimulus bill that everyone is supposedly voting on today that applies to the first-time home buyer tax credit - it's on pp. 24-27 of that pdf. Apologies if this has been gone through somewhere else, but here's my take on it:
1) It's $8,000 or 10% of the purchase price of the home, whichever is less.
2) Only applies to first time home buyers (haven't owned in the past 3 years).
3) Applies only to homes purchased after Dec. 31, 2008 and before Dec. 1, 2009.
4) Same income phase-outs as the $7500 interest-free loan from last year.
5) You can choose to claim the credit on either your 2008 (or amended 2008 return) or 2009 return.
#5 is of particular interest - the way I read that is if you were UNDER the income limit in 2008, but would go over it in 2009, you are still eligible for the credit if you amend your 2008 return. Thoughts?
Has anybody else heard the new administration's proposal to subsidize troubled mortgages? They announced it yesterday. So awesome. /sarcasm off
Matt, thanks for doing the research.
I would say, tentatively yes, to your question which is fabulous for us personally as that is exactly our situation. (i.e. after January's raises we enter the phase out regime) But in reality it depends on how the IRS chooses to understand and implement it.
Long time lurker here. Love the info, keep it up.
I'll be moving to Mclean/Tysons at some point, and even with the house price reductions, renting seems like the way to go. My question is when was the last time NOVA had a reasonable rent/house price ratio?
Saz,
short answer, 1998--2000.
DC area with explanation
another version with price to income as well
this is just what a quick google search dug up.
Saz: 1999? 2000?
"Today it's pure anger at each and every seller whose list price is more than 100k above what I personally think their place is intrinsically worth."
the role of govt is to determine "worth" and set a floor under it, so these sellers will eventually be vindicated.
Has anybody else heard the new administration's proposal to subsidize troubled mortgages?
[pulling hair out] I think i'll start drinking now. Wake me when it's over.
sorta kinda OT question but not really...
say a home owner had roughly $100K equity in his current residence, but only $20K in cash. if he wanted to turn the current home into a rental property and buy a bigger house, would the banks approve a loan based on his $100K equity, or at least part of that, in addition to a $20K cash down payment?
i guess i'm trying to understand how people go about trading up while their current homes are not selling so they're for rent as well.
tks!
Matt,
These days the real question is not whether you'll ever get laid off during your working career, it's how quickly will you find a new and better job when you do.
Husband's an engineer, chose that purely for job security too, didn't work out quite that easy.
Last I heard the job prospects for unemployeed white-collar workers in the DC area were still pretty darn healthy. Any new news?
Thanks. Still think I'm priced out of the market for a long time. No way I can justify spending 800k on a house I can rent for 3k/month.
Tabitha I didnt start tracking the hard foreclosure numbers til the fall (before that it was just X per thousand). However, my hard numbers for PWC are:
Sep 1496 foreclosures
Oct 1373 foreclosures
Nov 902 foreclosures
Dec 1101 foreclosures
Jan 866 foreclosures
Note, I do expect these numbers to decline, simply because at this rate, you would foreclose on every single house in the entire county in less than 7 years!
Recall to that during the bubble, we suspected PWC was a real hotbed of flipping and junk loans. Combining this with the mass emigration of the latino population, you had a perfect storm for one of the highest foreclosure rates in the country. The huge disparity in foreclosure rates between say PWC & Arl bear this out.
However, as we transition from "the bubble" to "the recession", I expect the last PWC flippers/speculators will wash out, leaving behind only those losing their homes due to job loss. I thus expect the rate and number of foreclosures in PWC to decline.
By contrast, in places like Arlington which had much less speculation/junk loans, I expect the foreclosure rates (and numbers) to rise as job loss becomes the primary driver of foreclosures.
In the end, after all the speculators have washed out, I expect all counties to have very similar foreclosure rates (after all, lawyers dont just live in Arlington, web consultants dont just live in Loudoun, etc).
My guess is all areas will end up with rates of 1 in 500/1 in 700 foreclosures per household. This means, foreclosure rates in Arl & Alex will get worse, and foreclosure rates in Ffx, Lou & PWC will get better.
Cara - funny you mention that. My father's an electrical engineer who just passed the 30-year mark with IBM (a dying breed). I was an engineer before law school, and my wife is an engineer/MBA. Might as well make yourself as marketable/flexible as possible, especially these days.
And I believe your estimate about the job prospects for white collar workers in the DC area is correct (especially defense contractors, Lockheed/Booze/Grumman/etc.), which IMHO is part of the reason housing prices have stayed so inflated in certain areas - many owners can afford to wait things out, stubbornly keep prices high, somebody bites, that creates comps, and the iterative process goes on and on...
MM,
I think in the past people used to refi with the cashout to pay the downpayment on the new house, obviously need a lot of equity to do that.
mm,
They will count it as an asset, just like they count your retirement accounts as assets. Neither do you actually intend to hand over in the case of foreclosure or default, but if you allow them to use that in qualifying you for a loan, then in essence that's what you're implying you would be willing to do to keep paying.
A long long time ago, banks used to require not just a downpayment but also 6 months of mortgage payments saved up as a guaruntee against job loss. The retirement accounts and other assets (like equity in an existing house) count towards that amount. If you can get them to accept an estimate of the rental income you can also claim that as income against the expense of the existing mortgage.
JPMorgan, Citigroup Will Suspend Home Foreclosures Until March
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aXMDfFIAw99o&refer=home
zerodown,
guess this explains why they extended the first-time-buyer credit until the end of the year, how else were these foreclosures going to get sold if they can't put them on the market yet?
Gah. If they are going to do something this makes sense, given that there's nothing useful they can do... Gah.
crt--
thanks so much for the info. everything you said has been swirling around in my brain, but you put all together for me beautifully. much appreciated!
WSJ Blog on DC and NoVA housing prices: http://blogs.wsj.com/developments/2009/02/13/home-prices-in-northern-virginia-nearing-bottom-dc-has-farther-to-fall/#comment-51695
House Passes $787B Plan
Democrats released the text of the plan late last night, prompting complaints from Republicans they didn’t have enough time to review the legislation before voting on it.
The 1,400-page stimulus plan would provide a half-trillion dollars for jobless benefits, renewable energy projects, highway construction, food stamps, broadband, Pell college tuition grants, high-speed rail projects and scores of other programs. It would raise the nation’s debt limit to about $12 trillion.
1,400 pages! How many voted for this without even reading it?
Falls Church City assessments are on the website now.
http://property.fallschurchva.gov/public/ieprop.htm
Down an average of 2.5% from last year, with condos taking the biggest hit (7.4%) while SFH's were down 3% and townhomes were down 1.5% on average.
nova-mike, thanks for that blog link. Great stuff. Sort of confirms my belief that DC isn't immune to the bubble. If PWC houses went up 300% then fell back down to Earth, why wouldn't DC prices do the exact same thing? Nothing has fundamentally changed here.
crt--
I am so happy. Look what I found:
http://tinyurl.com/dbmf96
It's old, but so much excellent data.
Note how different their #s are from Realtytrac's.
Regarding the emerging, but still missing, federal plan to help drowning homeowners here's a few explainers and if any of this makes sense ...
From MSNBC::
>A $300,000 mortgage on a house now worth $200,000, for example, might be bought at a 30 percent discount. The homeowner then would be able to refinance the smaller mortgage with lower monthly payments. The government could then sell the loan back to investors, freeing money to buy more loans.
Of the roughly 10 million to 12 million households facing foreclosure over the next four years, the buyback plan could help between 4 million to 5 million to keep their homes, according to John Taylor, president of the National Community Reinvestment Coalition, who met this week with White House officials to discuss the plan.<
Howard Glaser, a mortgage industry consultant who served in the Clinton administration, said if 2 million borrowers' payments were lowered by $500 a month, it would cost the government and lenders $6 billion each per year — assuming lenders match half the cost.
From AP:
>
Unlike previous loan modification plans, borrowers would not have to be in default to qualify, according to people briefed on the plan.
Still, figuring out who would qualify would be a challenge, especially as foreclosures continue to soar. More than 274,000 U.S. households received at least one foreclosure-related notice last month, according to RealtyTrac Inc., an Irvine, Calif.-based foreclosure listing service.<
From Bloomberg:
>The new plan, which isn’t final and could change, would be voluntary for lenders and investors, the person said. It is aimed at loan modifications that have a positive net present value, meaning that the cost of a foreclosure would be higher than that of adjusting the loan terms.<
From Forbes
>... the new program will be a departure by attacking the problem before homeowners miss mortgage payments, which is the point when most current assistance efforts kick in. The Obama plan will first use a means test to determine affordability, then aid qualifying homeowners, likely utilizing government-controlled Fannie Mae.<
From an AP report “Meltdown 101: How a mortgage aid plan might work
>Q: I'm paying my mortgage on time. Will I get help?
A: The plan is expected to help some borrowers who are not yet in default, though it's not clear how many. Mortgage companies are likely to analyze the level of debt held by borrowers for signs of financial strain. Based on those criteria, borrowers could get a lower interest rate, or possibly a lower principal amount.
<
From the WSJ:
>People familiar with the administration’s discussion of the plan say it would aim to allow more Americans to qualify for reduced home-mortgage payments.
Government officials want to make such modifications available to people who are still current with their payments but in danger of defaulting. At present, government-backed mortgage companies Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are focused on modifying loans for people who are already 90 days or more behind.
The plan is likely to call for holding people’s monthly payments as low as 31% of pretax income, according to some people taking part in the policy making.<
"JPMorgan, Citigroup Will Suspend Home Foreclosures Until March "
That is only a delay of a few weeks, but I am starting to wonder if the government really will be successful in slowing the market's correction for at least the first half of this year.
There was already a backlog of foreclosures buildings up though, what happens when these finally do hit the market?
Howard Glaser, a mortgage industry consultant who served in the Clinton administration, said if 2 million borrowers' payments were lowered by $500 a month, it would cost the government and lenders $6 billion each per year — assuming lenders match half the cost.
Under this scenario, isn't a bank better off to have people in houses they can't afford versus having an empty foreclosed property? My point is does this push banks to (continue to) make loans that buyer's can't pay on knowing that a default (or, under this plan, even a near default) will result in the government coming in and taking half the pain away?
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