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Tuesday, February 10, 2009
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18 comments:
Lawrence Yun admits his prognostication was wrong
from the OC register:
Credit bubble pushed Realtor forecasts off course
My favorite line:
Tons of “unqualified people, people not emotionally ready” to buy a house became borrowers.
Emotionally ready, huh? How about financially ready? Or wait does he mean that people weren't "emotionally ready" for the 65% of take-home income into mortgage service, taxes, and maintainence that the continuation of bubble profits required of them?
Ah, the NAR. always good for a laugh.
LOL @ emotionally ready. Gee, maybe NAR shouldn't have so aggressively persuaded them all to buy. Good to know Yun can admit he's been wrong. Look forward to the day that he admits he's always been wrong.
check these differences. at the end it may be somthing else...any way
The Senate tax credit, unlike the House proposal, is also non-refundable. That means, if your tax obligation is less than the credit, you only receive an amount equal to your tax bill, no more. The average taxpayer pays considerably less than $15,000 a year in federal income taxes and so would not qualify for the entire credit. For example, if your total tax bill is $8,000, your debt would be zeroed out, but you wouldn't receive the remaining $7,000 as a refund.
But homebuyers can take the credit spread out over two tax years. So in the above example, the taxpayer could claim the remaining $7,000 on next year's taxes.
Another difference is that the Senate credit is good for one year following its enactment and is not retroactive. Homebuyers who make purchases before the credit takes effect cannot claim it; under the House bill, they can because the credit is retroactive to the start of 2009 and expires at the end of June. In both bills, buyers must live in the home for two years or forfeit the credit
we have to see if they make any changes to this to compramise...
manju,
yup, I think you've hit the nail on the head in boiling down the differences. We'll see what happens. Oh wait, in the House bill, was there still an income cap on the credit, do you know? Not that this isn't also up for negotiations.
Here is a link to a table in today's Washington Post comparing the tax credit proposals:
http://tinyurl.com/aahj4o
I think part of one of the debates was about making the tax credit, while not refundable, spreadable over two years, so that in your example you'd have $0 of tax due in year one (and hence a massive return of payroll deductions) and only $1000 due the next year (and only a slightly less massive return).
Of course details like that are easily skewed, removed, or otherwise mangled in House-Senate compromises.
manju, thanks for explaining that.
MRIS numbers are out.
I won't summarize here because I am sure the data will be up on the front page soon enough.
NoVA: -20.0% (YoY median*)
Alexandria: -20.5%
Arlington: -2.7%
Fairfax: -21.7%
Loudoun: -22.2%
Manassas: -35.7%
Montgomery: -22.0%
Prince Georges: -22.3%
Prince William: -38.7%
DC proper: -15.9%
Thanks for posting those numbers John-
Are they for Dec 2008 or Jan 2009?
Thanks!
Awesome. I gotta love the one photo provided with this listing.
January 2009.
Wow what happened to Alexandria? did greater Alexandria get mixed in or something? Happily awaiting the 11 years of sales table :)
lol xpovos, nice find. Here's a larger picture:
http://franklymls.com/PW6827546
It looks like the wood visible in the front yard might be a handicap ramp to the front door.
Maybe trash day wasn't the best time to take a picture...
i wonder if the statue of Mary conveys...
(john fontain, I had the same thought.)
Harriet, I took a look at the Valley View house today. Lovely horse property, tasteful and pretty house, surrounded by apple and peach orchards, rose gardens, herb and vegetable beds...probably a touch too small for our family, but I will watch. Asking a lot for a 4BR/2.5BA/2800sqft house, even with the barn and paddocks.
Here's an interesting note: I asked the listing agent if the assessor's website square footage counted the sunroom addition, and she said no, but added she was sure the house would appraise for the asking price, because she had found a comp from October that matched well and sold for $575K, but if it didn't appraise for the full price, there could be some negotiations at that point. (The tax assessed value has hovered in the upper $400Ks the past three years, and they are asking upper $500Ks.)
I looked up the comp she mentioned, while wondering if this will be something that breaks the stubborn sellers' backs (yes, I may be thinking of one stubborn seller in particular). Will banks bury deals they are not comfortable financing? Will appraisers, who are really on my bad side right now, actually help push values back to reason by appraising properties down during the spring?
I found the comp, and it appears far away, though similar in size, but you'd almost think that something that closed in early October is already getting old?
Random closing thought: are realtors taught in realtor school to always say "there has been a ton of interest in this place" no matter what, or is there a ton of interest in every place all the time?
(Tabitha, another one i like: "we're busier than ever!")
does anyone know why an agent would increase listing price on the day of contract? this home was originally listed at $639,000 on 2/5/09, but today its status changed to under contract, and the listing price also changed to $679,900. what's the reasoning behind this? i could think of many reasons for agents wanting to reduce the listing price if contract comes in lower, but not the other way around.
Tabitha,
Yeah, the "ton of interest" I would take with a grain of salt. (Could be true, but it's a common enough sales tactic).
So the house is 2,800 square feet -- it looks like at least a 1,000 square foot addition counting both stories? That's a fair size (3,880) if I have it right. It might be cost prohibitive, but I know someone who had a basement dug after the fact.
I also just found this on gardenweb:
"Yes, we put a basement under our home this year. We LOVE the extra room, it was worth every penny we've put into it so far.
We had a house mover come and jack up the house, it was put on stilts or cribs while the dirt was being removed and the foundation was being constructed. We had a local mason come in, the one with the best reputation and the longest track history at 45+ years do a concrete block foundation. The foundation was fitted with rerod through several areas horizontally and through all of it vertically. It was tarred and sealed and they stuccoed on the outside. We have a lot of light because of all the windows we had put in and a walk down area with a sliding patio door.
All this fun cost about 36k. I think it was money VERY well spent. This included a new energy efficient furnace and plumbing."
That is, if there isn't a reason why there isn't one there, like flooding. I would probably put the whole idea to rest without a basement in flat Nokesville. (I am always nervous about tornadoes, but perhaps others aren't).
This came on the market today. (Not relevant to your search, just another example of completely out there pricing). MM looks at that price and thinks . . . uh . . . I could pay that in *Arlington*.
MM,
My best guess is that it was bid up. Agents like to change the price for comps (so other agents or buyers see what it sold for). One thing I appreciated about my agent was that she was quick to answer questions about stuff like that on specific properties. I would like to know the right answer, too.
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