December sales were at a 10-year low for that month in Arlington County, with the median price falling about 11%. Sales were up (again) significantly in Prince William County (144%). Prince William has shaved its months of supply down to 4 months' from 15 months' worth last year, which is remarkable. The median price of those sales was $165,000, which is about the same price as buyers were paying between 2000-2001. Another county with a poor showing was Fauquier, with sales at a decade low, and an inventory supply of 12 months', despite the median price dropping 37%. That wasn't the case with other exurban counties like Culpeper (sales +126% and Stafford (sales +114%).
Source: MRIS
Saturday, January 10, 2009
Northern Virginia December Housing Sales
Posted by Harriet at 5:50 PM
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Anyone know where I could get similar sales info for Calvert County, Maryland? There used to be a southern Maryland housing blog a long time ago but not anymore.
It's hard to gauge any trends from Dec. and Jan. numbers, which are always too thin to reflect the state of the market. But everything is in place for the correction to finally take hold in the immunozones: the job market is deteriorating; jumbo spreads remain wide; flat-to-lower prices are squeezing those who had been tapping equity to get by; and decade-low sales levels will make it more likely that prices on distressed sales to dictate the market. [BTW, this is why prices are down in PWC on high sales volume]. Stubborn sellers beware; the underlying math is more stubborn than you.
Thank you, Harriet. Very interesting. Can the stare-down in the close-in areas finally be ending?
And, I don't mean to be picky, but if we count both 1998 and 2008, we actually have a decade *plus a year* of sales. So the #s may be even more noteworthy.
Mary,
Click on the "Source: MRIS" link at the bottom of this post -- or here.
Calvert County had 48 units sold on 910 active listings -- median sold price $287.5K (-24%).
Mary, The owner of the Baltimore blog came back to post numbers in mid-December. Not as recent as these numbers, but it gives you a good idea. Calvert County has hardly any sales in a month, so additional inventory really adds to the months of supply. I think in November Calvert County had 35 months of inventory!
http://bubblemore.blogspot.com/
Ace,
Good point -- I started doing these when the title made sense. How about "Northern Virginia December Housing Sales" -- or I could solicit suggestions. :-)
"Can the stare-down in the close-in areas finally be ending?"
No evidence of that so far...
Both Arlington and Alexandria City are at decade lows in sales. As you said, it is hard to gauge trends in the winter months when volume is light to begin with, but it appears the stand-off continues.
We will know the close in sellers are capitulating when we see volume spike back up again along with a sharp drop in prices.
I kind of suspect we will see a big spike in inventory again in a couple months as some of the "shadow inventory" get lists to take advantage of the "spring market."
Last year when this happened, sellers ultimately pulled their homes from the market rather than accepting market prices. We will know we are seeing capitulation if this time around we see a spike in sales and a sharp drop in prices.
Still, we are seeing some progress with these price drops. Even with the light volume it is nice to see prices continue to fall in those areas that are completely immune to price drops...
Harriet, how about "These Go to Eleven"?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d54UU-fPIsY
it's nice and sunny and so many OHs to go to - six within two blocks of my home. spring selling season arrives early this year. wish everyone a fun afternoon house hunting!
Many thanks to everyone for the info-It says that they are closing down the Baltimore blog-Anyone have any idea where I could continue to get this info in the future?
"Leroy said...
We will know the close in sellers are capitulating when we see volume spike back up again along with a sharp drop in prices."
I guess the same analysis can be used for Faquier Co. since they show the same characteristics of Arl & Alex - a decade + low of sales, and slowly declining inventory. Given that prices there are now down -37% YOY, I shudder to think what "capitulation" will look like.
I agree with terminator - there isnt much we can tell from the dead of winter market. Arl & Alex made a nice recovery over the signs of doom last month, but January may be a problem for them (and of course all high end sellers in FFX, LOU & PWC since we all agree none of them have seen capitulation yet).
I still think one of the more interesting stories is forming across the river. Long timers recall we saw FFX, LOU & PWC develop large months of inventory last winter - only coming down this year (down to Arl & Alex levels) once prices took a pretty big hit.
We see the same thing in MD this month:
Mo Co - 8.05
Howard - 9.48
Anne Arundel - 12.29
Frederick - 12.91
Charles - 14.88
PG CO - 18.91
All of them are at a decade low of sales too - I really dont see this ending well for them...
Mary said...
Many thanks to everyone for the info-It says that they are closing down the Baltimore blog-Anyone have any idea where I could continue to get this info in the future?
Until the NAR pulls the plug on MRIS, the data will always be there. Moreover, the MRIS site has historical data. Put as much of this data as possible in excel, make up some charts, and you’ll have some very telling information.
While I DO NOT recommend using a buyers agent, this site regularly reports the info you seek.
http://www.teambenya.com/
Keep them honest. Gather your own data. It’s the only way you’re really going to be informed. By my charts, Calvert is feeling the hurt right now. Take your time, plenty of inventory, no need to rush into anything.
Yeah, it's winter. In FFX County, sales were up by about 350 over November, but 100 less than the amount by which listings were down. Price unchanged MoM. However, if you compare the winter dulldrums now with the thin trading months in 98-02, you'll see that usually there's no more than 2 months of inventory at this time and usually more sales than this December. There's a lot more inventory already on the MLS waiting for spring buyers to come snap them up. Says me, still hopeful for another 20% drop in the median home in Franconia Springfield. The bottom tier is now below rental parity, I'm just not sure I want to buy the bottom tier.
Made the mistake of walking around a bunch of neighborhoods this weekend that have no chance of coming into our price range until our price range moves up.
Hmm, interesting finds.
A lot of homes in the areas that I watch (Eastern Loudoun & Haymarket) are actually being pulled off the Market right now.
Me thinks they will reappear For Sale come mid March or so.
I think a whole lot of Sellers are banking on the Spring '09 Market.
"I think a whole lot of Sellers are banking on the Spring '09 Market" --Spunky
from your mouth to God's ears
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