Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/31/2008

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S&P/Case-Shiller® October Home-Price Index

The S&P/Case Shiller® composite index (graph here) for the month of October was released today.

"Data through October 2008, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, shows continued broad based declines in the prices of existing single family homes across the United States, with 14 of the 20 metro areas showing record rates of annual decline and 14 now reporting declines in excess of 10% versus October 2007. . . . the 10-City and 20-City Composites set new records, with annual declines of 19.1% and 18.0%, respectively.”

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/30/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/29/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/23/2008

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More Fairfax Fallout

So full of ironies . . .

The Washington Post editorializes like a hand-wringing nanny that budget shortfalls ("crisis") in Fairfax "shouldn't be a political tug of war," now that Connolly's escaped and taken up a new seat in the House.

"Fairfax officials announced last week that the county faces an estimated $650 million shortfall in a $3.4 billion budget for fiscal 2010. The gap, more than $200 million higher than estimates in July, is mostly attributable to plummeting housing values; property assessments have fallen 14 percent since the start of the year."

I'm guessing they'll just raise the property tax rate. It's obvious they've got little to lose.

"Companies that will Disappear in '09"

Blog reader John pointed out this AOL article: Companies That Will Disappear in 2009. There's only one big builder on the list, K. Hovnanian. (Toll Brothers continues to survive: F4Q08 Conference Call).

Other homebuilder stocks (TOL, DHI, RYL, NVR) have made significant bounces off their lows in November, but HOV isn't looking very healthy at the moment. The full list of AOL's suggested company failures:

Chrysler
Sirius XM
AIG
Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
Rite-Aid
The New York Times
Nortel
Pier 1 Imports
Charter Communications
Hovnanian

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/22/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/19/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/17/2008

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Frank has some fantastic news for us data fiends:

"SOLD DATA IS HERE! And that includes seller subsidy! (which the tax records don't show)

And now in one sort you can sort and see ALL of the homes that have dropped the most since their previous purchase price.

Try it out. Search for Manassas Active.

And then sort by List$/Sold (drop down sort).

And there you can see the top 50 real time biggest droppers.

Let me know what you think!"

Frank
Owner FranklyMLS.com

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/15/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/12/08

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/11/2008

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Housing Affordability Update

Here's an updated affordability chart for the Washington Metropolitan Statistical Area. The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Opportunity Index (HOI) has data going back to 1991.

HOI is a measure of the percentage of homes sold in a given area that are affordable to families earning that area's median income.

A Decade of November Sales

November sales were still sparking in the outer suburbs, but more anemic in the closer-in areas.

Standouts from November: Prince William County YOY sales were up 121% and near a 10-year November record (second only to November 2004 with 1,098 sales), with the median price down 43%, and inventory still around 5 months; Fairfax County sales were up 14%, and the median price was down 24%. The City of Alexandria was a standout on the downside, with 39% fewer sales than last year and at a notable decade low. Inventory there is up to nearly 10 months' worth, and the price buyers were paying on those anemic sales were down nearly 20%. Arlington, too, is at a decade high for inventory and the number of sales was at a decade low.



Source: MRIS

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/10/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/8/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/5/2008

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The Housing Bubble Blog has a post today with articles about Manassas, Arlington, and Falls Church:

"He also said that Arlington has been fairly immune to the collapse of the Northern Virginia housing market. ‘We’re affected absolutely, but not like the outer areas,’ Lagos said. He did say that the housing market collapse has had an effect on the county’s real estate community. ‘Realty is now a career,’ Lagos said. ‘There’s not a lot of people dabbling in it [anymore].’

The Falls Church News Press from Virginia. “While the Falls Church area has managed to escape the severity of the foreclosure crisis that plagues much of Northern Virginia today, the foreclosure market in the Greater Falls Church area still remains lucrative.”

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/4/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 12/2/2008

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She Will Be Greatly Missed

I just got home and saw this sad news. My first stop is always CR when I see market turbulence, which happened again today.

Influential Economics Blogger Tanta Has Died

"The econoblogosphere has lost one of its most influential voices, as the news emerged that Calculated Risk blogger Doris Dungey, better known as Tanta, passed away from ovarian cancer on Sunday.

Started in 2005, Calculated Risk emerged as one of the smartest and most influential blogs on the mortgage meltdown and resulting financial crisis. As one of its two main bloggers, Tanta, a former mortgage banker, helped explain the crisis in a smart, accessible way that made her posts a must-read for anyone looking for a deeper understanding on the situation. Her expert analysis and trademark wit elevated the discourse.

Calculated Risk will continue under her co-blogger, and will remain one of the key outposts for those looking for news and analysis of the financial crisis. However, the continuing discussion that is the blogosphere will be less dynamic in Tanta’s absence". – Phil Izzo

Thank you, Tanta, for your wonderful and inspiring work.