Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 8/30-9/1, 2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/29/2008

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Here comes Labor Day weekend! Any bets on the autumn housing market? I'm seeing some capitulation in prices and some "for sale" pile-ups in certain neighborhoods, although overall inventory is lower than last year.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/28/2008

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S&P/Case-Shiller June Home-Price Index

The S&P/Case Shiller composite index (graph here) for the month of June was released yesterday (and discussed in yesterday's bits bucket by CRT).

CalculatedRisk: "In real terms, the Case-Shiller National Home price index is off 25% from the peak. Real prices are now back to the Q4 2002 level (nominal prices are back to mid-2004)."

From WSJ Online:

"Home prices are improving in some parts of the country but still falling sharply in places like Phoenix, as the weak housing market and shaky consumer confidence continue to weigh on the U.S. economy.

'We're starting to see some hopeful signals in parts of the country,' said Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight, a Lexington, Mass.-based forecasting firm.

On a monthly basis, home-price declines in the nation's largest cities slowed in June, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller home-price indexes released Tuesday. Prices fell 0.6% on average from the month before after falling by 1% in May. The June performance was a marked improvement from monthly drops of 2% to 2.5% that occurred earlier this year.
. . .
'Prices are still falling very steeply in the areas that got most overheated and further declines will be necessary in those regions for sure,' Mr. Gault said".

June's difference from peak prices (May 2006): -21.38%

From blog reader Shamrock, a point of clarification:

"The Washington DC area is down about 20% from peak, but that doesn't really tell the whole story since I suspect that PW County is down 35%, Loudoun down 30%, and Arlington down 5%."

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/27/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/26/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/25/2008

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Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 8/23-8/24, 2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/22/2008

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July Foreclosure Rates

The Loudoun Times has some foreclosure news:

"Loudoun in July saw a 54 percent increase in foreclosure filings from the same month in 2007,according to new data from California-based RealtyTrac.com. . . . Foreclosure paperwork was filed against one out of every 169 homes in Loudoun in July, a rate second in the state only to Prince William County, which saw a rate of one out of every 103 homes".

July foreclosure rates:

Prince William: 1 out of every 103 houses
Loudoun: 1 out of every 169 houses
Fairfax: 1 out of every 226 houses
National average: 1 out of every 464 houses

The article goes on to point out that sales increased with falling prices, which we already knew here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/21/2008

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Mortgage Applications at 6-Year Low

From AP:

"Mortgage application volume fell last week to its lowest levels in more than six years, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Wednesday.
. . .
A sharp drop in refinance volume in recent weeks has been the leading driver of declining application volume.

The trade group's application index fell to 419.3 during the week ended Aug. 15, a 1.5 percent decline from the week prior. Application volume is down 61 percent from its 2008 peak in February".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/20/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/19/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/18/2008

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Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 8/16-8/17, 2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/15/2008

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Say Again?

Hattip Novahog -- this can't be beat --

"Expectacular property in great area. ceilings on the forst floorand. open staircase leads to the second floor, Laundry ara in lower level"

Real estate agent comments on a new listing today.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/14/2008

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The Quotable Toll

From today's Toll Brothers, Inc.'s Fiscal 3rd Quarter 08 Outlook Conference Call with CEO Robert Toll:

"Third quarter building revenues were approximately $796.5 million. Backlog was approximately $1.75 billion, and net signed contracts were about $469.7 million. These totals represent declines of 34%, 52%, and 35% respectively in dollars, and 31%, 48%, and 27% respectively in units, compared to fiscal year ‘07’s third quarter".
. . .

"Okay. The trend during the quarter is we got a little bit better but we’re talking on a microscopic basis, using percentages. We went from like a 95 to 100, to give you an idea of how we got a little bit better during the quarter.

With respect to traffic, it’s still dismal. Traffic is -- it’s consistent, however. It has not gotten any worse for the last three quarters, so we feel as though we’ve stabilized but I don’t want to give you the indication that that makes us feel good. It’s as though we walked into the tar pits, sunk up to our nose, our feet are touching a ledge and we are not going down any further but that sure doesn’t make us feel that comfortable.

With respect to promotions impacting the trend in the quarter, I would say not as we’ve been running promotions for the last three quarters. I feel like as I watched the Olympics last night and heard some of the ads by the car manufacturers that we may be finally cycling into their kind of marketing. You know, this week get this Toyota, this Chevy for $199 a month, good until September 2nd. And then September 3rd, there will be another special. The only difference is our specials aren’t just by advertising, by putting the word out. Ours are accompanied by phone-athons where we have all of our sales people, together with our project managers, our vice presidents, our senior vice presidents, working the phones, calling people because now you have an excuse. You have this two-week period or one-week period only, a sub-zero refrigerator, and it gives us a reason to call and spook up the traffic.

But we are heartened that at least we are able to spook up the traffic. That indicates that there are buyers out there waiting to be nudged. It will take a general turn in confidence for the big nudge to occur but sooner or later, it will occur".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/13/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/12/2008

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"The Whole Math Changes" for Golfophobes

From the Washington Post:

"It wasn't long ago that real estate developers could build a golf course community and collect a $30,000 premium from customers who might not have even played golf, but aspired to the country club lifestyle.

Not anymore. Projects have been put on hold or canceled because potential buyers are no longer willing to pay extra, can't qualify for a mortgage or can't sell their homes to trade up. Courses that were too far along to stop are struggling to find customers.

'People just can't afford the luxury of a country club. It's become much more aspirational,' said Marc Montgomery, a developer who opened his third Washington area golf course community this summer. Like the other two, River Creek in Virginia and Cross Creek in suburban Maryland, his latest, Oak Creek, is the centerpiece of an exclusive luxury community. He has brought in a company from Pennsylvania to manage the golf operations but, he said, 'it's hard to spend $12 million [on a course] and make it back at $50 to $100 a round.'

'If you don't have enough people buying houses fast enough, it's never going to work,' Montgomery said.

Sixty to 80 percent of people who live in golf communities don't play the sport, said Edward T. McMahon, a senior resident fellow at the Urban Land Institute in the District. Now that mortgage lending has tightened up and potential buyers are more price-conscious, 'all of a sudden, the whole math changes,' he said".

A Plethora of Prognosticators

Thanks to blog reader Ace for the link to no less than 44 local real estate agents giving their opinion about the market's future in the July 21st edition of the Sun Gazette.

They're all over the place:

"Sherry Schaffer, Long & Foster Arlington: 'Inside the Beltway, the market is doing very well. Buyers are out there, because there are good deals and the interest rates are good.'

Ann Wilson, Re/Max Allegiance Arlington: 'Yes, I agree the market has bottomed out - particularly in Arlington. I'm not sure that Arlington will ever really experience [a drop].'

Beth Slucher, Long & Foster Vienna/Oakton: 'I'm afraid I'm going to sound more dismal than most - I really think we're not at the bottom.'"

D.C. Area Office Space

H/T Neil for mentioning Calculated Risk's post on declining sales in commercial real estate in the D.C. area.

Highlights from the Washington Post:

Sales, first half of 2008:

The District -- building sales fell 61 percent, to $1.4 billion worth of office space from the $3.6 billion sold by mid-2007;

Northern Virginia -- building sales down 87 percent, to $914 million from $6.8 billion a year ago;

Maryland's suburbs -- building sales fell 13 percent, to $459 million from $527 million;

Vacancy Rates and Rents:

A total of 6.5 million square feet of office space was leased throughout the Washington area in the second quarter, a 10 percent decline from the same period last year.

District -- at the end of the second quarter, vacancy rates increased to 8.8 percent from 8.5 percent one year ago. Developers and building owners increased rents 5 percent, from $45.19 to $47.45 a square foot.

Rosslyn-Ballston corridor -- vacancy rate of 8.5 percent at the end of the second quarter, up from 7.8 percent the year before. Rents there increased 3.6 percent, from $34.66 to $35.91.

Reston and Herndon area -- vacancy rate jumped to 16.7 percent from 11.1 percent, with asking rents declining 1.2 percent from $31.45 to $31.07 a square foot.

Along Route 28, south of Dulles International Airport -- vacancy rate declined to 19.2 percent from 19.6 percent; rents declined 2.4 percent, from $28.82 to $28.12 a square foot.

A Decade of July Sales

Standout from July: Prince William County YOY sales up 95%, (Median Price down 39%);

Standout from June: Prince William County YOY sales up 82%, (Median Price down 34%).

Discussion about these numbers was started in today's Bits Bucket by readers here.



Source: MRIS

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/11/2008

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Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 8/9-8/10, 2008

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Fannie Reports

Fannie Mae reported second-quarter earnings this morning:

Stock analysts expected: a loss of 68 cents a share;

Stock analysts got: a loss of $2.54 a share.

Also, "to preserve cash, Fannie Mae slashed its dividend to 5 cents a share from 35 cents a share".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/8/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/7/2008

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Nothing Specious But the Price

I had to laugh out loud when I saw this new listing in Warrenton. First of all, the price was -- ambitious at $470K for a bank-owned in White's Mill in Warrenton. There currently are no less than twelve resales there (I think that's a new record), and four are priced lower than $470K. But I digress. Here's where the real humor lies, as I cut and paste the listing comments:

"Description:

This bank owned property presents a great opportunity own this specious, bright and gorgeous house at unbelievable price. Gourmet kitchen, granite counters, upgraded appliances. Specious and bright florida room has ceramic tiles and full windows. Basement is framed and electric has been done. Deposit em with la. Call la for bank addendum. Don't be late!"

I should also mention that Pulte (the developer) gave up towards the end and also is selling three empty lots for about 120K. So buyers, take your pick. But whatever you do, "don't be late".

Freddie Reports

Freddie Mac reported earnings this morning:

Stock analysts expected: a loss of 53 cents a share on revenue of $2.18 billion;

Stock analysts got: a loss of $1.63 a share on revenue of $1.69 billion.

In addition, "to preserve capital, the government-sponsored company said it expects to cut its dividend this quarter to 5 cents or less a from 25 cents a share."

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/6/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/5/2008

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Arlington County and Alexandria City -- Price Reductions

Here is a partial list of the past week's price reductions on properties in Arlington County and Alexandria City:

Price Reductions July 28 - August 4, 2008 (click for entire list):

8-4

ARLINGTON

Listing: AR6809436 for $675,000 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$695,000
6019 5TH RD N
ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6827975 for $269,900 Update Type:Price
1 Bedrms 1 Full Bath 0 Half Baths Prior Price:$279,900
4500 FOUR MILE RUN DR. S. DR S #705
ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6682650 for $279,900 Update Type:Price
1 Bedrms 1 Full Bath 0 Half Baths Prior Price:$289,900
4500 FOUR MILE RUN DR S #517
ARLINGTON, VA

CITY OF ALEXANDRIA

Listing: AX6756622 for $529,900 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$549,900
1609 HANCOCK AVE
ALEXANDRIA, VA

8-3

CITY OF ALEXANDRIA

Listing: AX6753782 for $549,900 Update Type:Price
2 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 0 Half Baths Prior Price:$569,900
535 TOBACCO QUAY
ALEXANDRIA, ALEXANDRIA CITY, VA

8-2

ARLINGTON

Listing: AR6270667 for $1,490,000 Update Type:Price
5 Bedrms 4 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$1,499,000
5213 12TH ST N
ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6530929 for $379,900 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 0 Half Baths Prior Price:$449,000
2000 POLLARD ST
ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6632900 for $309,000 Update Type:Price
2 Bedrms 1 Full Bath 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$314,900
4343 LEE HWY #205
ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6800358 for $194,900 Update Type:Price
2 Bedrms 1 Full Bath 0 Half Baths Prior Price:$215,000
901 FREDERICK ST S #3
ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6723441 for $289,000 Update Type:Price
2 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 0 Half Baths Prior Price:$299,000
847 IVY ST
ARLINGTON, VA

CITY OF ALEXANDRIA

Listing: AX6759433 for $455,900 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 3 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$465,900
5853 PEARSON LN
ALEXANDRIA, VA

Listing: AX6792572 for $387,900 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 3 Full Baths 0 Half Baths Prior Price:$399,900
5631 GARY AVE
ALEXANDRIA, VA

Listing: AX6698877 for $429,000 Update Type:Price
2 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$459,900
5432 WYCKLOW CT
ALEXANDRIA, VA

Listing: AX6732786 for $259,000 Update Type:Price
2 Bedrms 1 Full Bath 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$269,000
8 VAN DORN ST S #501
ALEXANDRIA, VA

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/4/2008

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Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 8/2-8/3, 2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 8/1/2008

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