Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/31/2008

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, off-topic ideas, and links here.

"Tough to Find Something Affordable"

The Washington Post put out their annual "Housing Outlook" special report today. I find these reports to be readable and interesting, but more of a backward-looking recap of the year rather than an "outlook".

John here on the blog pointed out a glaring factual error in Elizabeth Razzi's piece entitled "Opening Doors for First-Timers"

"But there's still a big hurdle for first-time buyers to overcome: It's tough to find something affordable that isn't in greater need of rehab than Amy Winehouse. For example, a quick search for condos or houses priced at $350,000 or less in Fairfax County showed only six properties. Six!

On average, the Washington area has high incomes to go with those high prices. That means the income caps for qualifying for government help to buy a first home are also high, so don't assume you earn too much until you check".

ZipRealty shows 2,575 condos and houses priced under $350K in Fairfax County out of a total of 7,348; over 1/3 of the available listings. There are 1,054 condos and houses priced under $250K.

Hopefully we'll see a retraction or they'll be notified by readers tomorrow when Real Estate Editor Maryann Haggerty and columnist Elizabeth Razzi hold their online discussion.

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 3/29-30, 2008

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Making Political Hay

Republicans were warned two years ago:

Housing Bubble Trouble
Have we been living beyond our means?
by Andrew Laperriere
The Weekly Standard
04/10/2006, Volume 011, Issue 28

"While the evidence of a housing bubble is overwhelming, it isn't definitive. But what isn't debatable is that one cannot forever spend more money than one earns--yet this is exactly what consumers have been doing.
. . .
Conservatives ought to seriously consider these risks so they won't be surprised or caught flat-footed if a housing correction occurs".

Democrats now see the other party backed into a corner:

"Democrats, however, are determined to put Republicans in the position of making tough votes, given the issue's potency for voters.

'Our hope is that when Republican members went back home they said 'Let's do something,' said Sen. Charles E. Schumer, chairman of the Joint Economic Committee. 'We feel the pressure is mounting and we are hopeful that there will be a change of mind in the Republican leadership,' said Schumer, D-N.Y.
. . .
Frank and Dodd want the Federal Housing Administration, the Depression-era agency that insures mortgages, to guarantee $300 billion to $400 billion in refinanced loans to troubled borrowers. Lenders would first have to agree to take a loss on the mortgages; borrowers would have to show they could afford to make payments on the new loans".

Those are big ifs. Lenders agreeing to take a loss? Borrowers affording the new loans? We shall see.

New, Improved Mortgages?

From the Washington Post:

"The Bush administration is finalizing details of a plan to rescue thousands of homeowners at risk of foreclosure by helping them refinance into more affordable mortgages backed by public funds, government officials said.

The proposal is aimed at assisting borrowers who owe their banks more than their homes are worth because of plummeting prices, an issue at the heart of the nation's housing crisis. Under the plan, the Federal Housing Administration would encourage lenders to forgive a portion of those loans and issue new, smaller mortgages in exchange for the financial backing of the federal government.
. . .
The initiative now being crafted could provide relief to a select group of homeowners who are "under water" on their mortgages, a term that describes the situation when falling home prices leave borrowers with negative equity. These homeowners would have to agree to stay in their homes after refinancing, be able to afford the new monthly payments and have lenders who are willing to go along with the plan, officials said.

Administration officials have yet to iron out other details, such as how big the new mortgage should be relative to the home's value".

Creating Affordable Housing

“Wait a tic… Blimey, this redistribution of wealth is trickier than I thought."

The Washington Post (hattip Lance) alerts us to a bold new plan:

"Gerald E. Connolly, chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, proposed last night using county funds to buy foreclosed properties and then sell them at below-market prices to working families.

Doing so would not only create affordable housing in one of the nation's most expensive communities, but it would also help protect neighborhoods in danger of decline from the exploding number of homes going into foreclosure across Fairfax, Connolly said in his annual State of the County speech at the government center.

'Taking a home out of foreclosure would help restore stability to a neighborhood and restore confidence in the local real estate market,' said Connolly, a candidate for Congress. 'Workforce housing is in great demand but short in supply.'"

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/27-28, 2008

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, off-topic ideas, and links here.

Price Reductions -- Arlington and Alexandria

Here is a link to a list of the last five days' price reductions on properties in Arlington County and Alexandria City. I've been subscribing to lists like these (from Fairfax Realty) for several years. They keep a person informed of new listings as well as price changes. In years like 2004 I only noticed price increases from builders and very few (if any) reductions from resellers. There were two small price increases included in the Alexandria list today.

These daily lists exemplify to me that prices are still under pressure in Northern Virginia.

Price Reductions 3/26/2008 (Click on link for entire list)

ARLINGTON

Listing: AR6684562 for $124,900 Update Type:Price
1 Bedrms 1 Full Bath 0 Half Baths Prior Price:$134,900
5106 COLUMBIA PIKE #2 ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6605961 for $2,500,000 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 4 Full Baths 2 Half Baths Prior Price: $2,750,000
1405 NASH ST ARLINGTON, VA

Listing: AR6651829 for $525,000 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price: $561,100
1945 WOODLEY ST N ARLINGTON, VA

CITY OF ALEXANDRIA

Listing: AX6627633 for $725,000 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 2 Full Baths 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$745,000
204 BRADDOCK RD E ALEXANDRIA CITY, VA

Listing: AX6671638 for $725,000 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 1 Full Bath 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$739,900
314 ROYAL ST N ALEXANDRIA CITY, VA

Listing: AX6656662 for $199,990 Update Type:Price
3 Bedrms 1 Full Bath 1 Half Bath Prior Price:$220,000
5925 QUANTRELL AVE #303 ALEXANDRIA CITY, VA

Loudoun County -- On the Market

128 COTTAGE RD N
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $134,900
Prior Sale: $360,000 06/14/2006
Listing Date: 03/19/08
-62.5%

24 SIMEON LN
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $149,900
Prior Sale: $339,000 03/02/2006
Listing Date 03/01/08
-55.8%

620 YORK LN SE
LEESBURG, VA 20175
List Price: $171,000
Prior Sale: $337,900 04/24/2006
Listing Date: 02/25/08
-49.4%

13 BAYBERRY CT
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $261,900
Prior Sale: $515,000 7/19/2005
Listing Date: 03/14/08
-49.1%

14 PROVIDENCE SQ #14
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $169,900
Prior Sale: $325,000 3/17/2006
Listing Date 02/27/08
-47.7%

See Loudoun County 3/26/2008 for more comparisons from this month's listings.

(Links by FranklyMLS.com)

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/26/2008

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, off-topic ideas, and links here.

National Home Sales Data Recap

Standard & Poor's today reported that home prices fell 11.4 percent in January, the steepest drop in 20 years.

From the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices' website (PDF):

“'Unfortunately it does not look like early 2008 is marking any turnaround in the housing market, after the declining year recorded throughout 2007,' says David M. Blitzer, Chairman of the Index Committee at Standard & Poor's. 'Home prices continue to fall, decelerate and reach record lows across the nation. No markets seem to be completely immune from the housing crisis, with 19 of the 20 metro areas reporting annual declines in January and the remaining – Charlotte North Carolina – eking out a benign 1.8% growth rate. Looking deeper into the data, you can see that 16 of the metro areas are also reporting record low annual growth rates. The monthly data show that every one of the MSAs has now declined every month since September 2007, marking five consecutive months. On top of that, the declines have increased through time, in general, as 13 of the 20 MSAs reported their single largest monthly decline in January.'”

February Sales

Yesterday's news was the National Association of Realtors' February existing home sales:

“Existing-home sales . . . remain 23.8 percent below the 6.60 million-unit level in February 2007. Single-family home sales . . . are 22.9 percent below 5.80 million-unit level a year ago".

Regional sales volume, year-over-year:

Northeast: -26.4%
Midwest: -19.5%
South: -22.0%
West: -29.2%

“Total housing inventory fell 3.0 percent at the end of February to 4.03 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.6-month supply at the current sales pace."

From MarketWatch. “The median sales price plunged to $195,900, down 8.2% from a year earlier, the largest price decline recorded since the Realtors began tracking both single-family homes and condos in 1999. Prices of single-family homes fell 8.7% in the past year, also the most since the records began in 1968.”

“Sales of condos are down 29.7% in the past year. Inventories of unsold condos rose 14% to 604,000, a 13-month supply.”

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/25/2008

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, off-topic ideas, and links here.

Fairfax County Recalculates

Hattip to reader the_nothing for this article from WTOP:

"After the uproar over Fairfax County's property assessments, those assessment will be mailed out again Thursday. The bottom line: The assessments are the same, but the breakdown between your home's value and the value of the property your house sits on will be different. Overall, residential property values declined an average of 3 percent countywide".

Also, be sure to check out Tanta's Tale of Real Estate Predation over at Calculated Risk. The article is in response to the Washington Post story this morning entitled "My House. My Dream. It Was All an Illusion," by Brigid Schulte.

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 3/21 - 23, 2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/20/2008

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$1.4 Million Saved

Julie Emery has another good one at her Piedmont Real Estate Blog about a house that finally sold in Amissville (Rappahannock County) after 574 days on the market.

"The home was listed for sale on May 4, 2006 for $2,275,000. The price was dropped three times. The final price drop was in November of 2007 when the price went to $995,000.

The final sales price was $850,000".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/18/2008

Please post your local house search updates, MLS finds, off-topic ideas, and links here.

Another Rental Scam

Here's another one to watch out for -- a Nigerian scam directed at renters. Jim Klinge has the info over at bubbleinfo.com.

The perpetrators take a listing off of the MLS and post it on Craigslist for a super low rental price, hoping to get a credit application filled in with vital information they can use (identity theft).

There's definitely a place for professional property managers like Austin Realty out in the Piedmont. It's helpful to have a go-between who looks out for both tenants and landlords, especially if either party is inexperienced.

Inventory and Price Reductions

Source: ZipRealty

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/17/2008

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Two Buck Bear

From AP:

"JPMorgan Chase said Sunday it will acquire rival Bear Stearns for a bargain-basement $236.2 million -- or $2 a share -- a stunning collapse for one of the world's largest and most storied investment banks".

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 3/15 & 3/16/2008

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Also, Calculated Risk has a Bear Stearns Saturday Update.

Bear

Last Trade: 35.08
Trade Time: 10:16AM ET
Change: -21.92 (38.46%)

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/14/2008

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Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/13/2008

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Tenants "Playing By The Rules"

The Fairfax Times has a little piece on foreclosures in Fairfax County. And it's nice to see some extra sympathy for the renters:

"Perhaps most vulnerable are unsuspecting tenants facing eviction because their landlord did not pay the mortgage, yet collected rent and often ran off with the security deposit.

'These tenants are people playing by the rules,' [Fairfax City Attorney Kevin R.] Hildebeidel said. 'They're paying their rent. They're not defaulting at all.

'I have a great deal of sympathy for them. They're the people that need some help,' he said. 'Those are the people, who in my opinion, that Congress and politicians ought to be focused on.'"

From the article:

Foreclosures in Fairfax County

2005: 198
2006: 593
2007: 4,527
-----------------------
January 2007: 74
January 2008: 1,330

Also be sure to note the map of Fairfax County that tells the story of 2008 assessments.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/11/2008

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A Decade of February Sales

Source: MRIS

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/10/2008

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Report from a Fairfax Auction

Julie Emery, a real estate agent who authors the Piedmont Real Estate Blog, attended a Tranzon real estate auction in Fairfax last Thursday. This was my favorite part of her review of the auction:

"I was also struck by some of the comments by Tranzon, both the auctioneer and the gentleman providing the descriptions of each property. Comments like "You know this is going to be worth $350K in a year or two" and "The value on this can only go up" were shocking to this REALTOR who has been trained to never misrepresent value. And, the interesting thing is that I think those kind of statements were actually counterproductive. You could hear some of the scoffing after these comments as the potential buyers seemed to be reminded of the current state of the local real estate market and the folly of such predictions".

But the whole post is informative.

Two Sides

Hattip to KH for noting this Washington Post article on foreclosed former "flop houses".

"County inspectors. . . found that the basement had been improperly divided into four rooms and that the house was set up for as many as 15 occupants.

They cited the owner, Elsa DeLeon, for a series of code violations and ordered her to bring the property into compliance. DeLeon, a Honduran immigrant, told The Washington Post at the time that only eight people lived there, all family members who were needed to help make the mortgage on the house she bought for $550,000 in 2006".

By May, it was in foreclosure, sold to Deutsche Bank National Trust Co. of Kansas City for $120,600, according to county records. The house has been vacant for months; DeLeon could not be located to comment. It will go up for auction today, along with hundreds of other foreclosed properties areawide, at the Washington Convention Center. The starting price is set at $169,000 -- less than half the value of surrounding homes.

The author of the article (Bill Turque) calls foreclosures "just as toxic for a neighborhood" as illegal occupancies. But an opportunist from the comment section has a different take:

"Folks, get out there and look at these foreclosed homes. I just bought one in the same zip, 22150, that the article talks about. [I]t was totally trashed. Carpets had been spilled and peed on, and not cleaned up, so every carpet had to go. One of the residents ran a drywall business out of the house, and the gardens, which the previous owner had cared for lovingly for so many years, became the trash pit for the leftovers from the drywall business. The roaches in this place were unbelievable. . . . I got this house from the foreclosing bank for almost $150,000 less than neighboring sales. With about $30,000 in renovations, and several months of my own blood, sweat and tears, I've got this house well on the way back to a beautiful house. And I could never have afforded it if it was in good shape to begin with".

Northern Virginia Weekend Bits Bucket 3/8 & 3/9/2008

Please post off-topic ideas, your local house search updates, MLS finds, and links here.

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/7/2008

Please post off-topic ideas, your local house search updates, MLS finds, and links here.

1945

August 15, 1945, was V-J Day. In the same year, the Fed started tracking homeowners' debt on their houses.

From the AP:

"Homeowners' portion of equity slipped to downwardly revised 49.6 percent in the second quarter of 2007, the central bank reported in its quarterly U.S. Flow of Funds Accounts, and declined further to 47.9 percent in the fourth quarter -- the third straight quarter it was under 50 percent.

That marks the first time homeowners' debt on their houses exceeds their equity since the Fed started tracking the data in 1945.
. . .
Moody's Economy.com estimates that 8.8 million homeowners, or about 10.3 percent of homes, will have zero or negative equity by the end of the month. Even more disturbing, about 13.8 million households, or 15.9 percent, will be "upside down" if prices fall 20 percent from their peak".

Northern Virginia Bits Bucket 3/6/2008

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"Typical" Fauquier Home = $417,000

From the Fauquier Times-Democrat:

"County Administrator Paul McCulla’s fiscal 2009 spending plan calls for a 17-cent real estate tax rate hike.

If Fauquier’s board of supervisors approve McCulla’s $233.4 budget proposal, the tax bill for homeowners would jump 26 percent.

The commissioner of revenue put the value of a "typical" Fauquier home at $417,000.

At the existing real estate tax rate of 64.5 cents per $100 assessed value, such homeowners pay the county $2,689.

Under McCulla’s proposed 81.5-cent rate, they would pay $708 more in real estate taxes, or a total of $3,398."

(In case you were wondering "where is that?"):

Today's Prices Yesterday

From MarketWatch:

"[Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben] Bernanke said that holders of the securitized mortgages should permit servicers to write down the mortgage liabilities of borrowers.

He said financial firms should consider reducing the principal of the trouble loans and not only the knee-jerk action of lowering the interest rate of the loans.

'In this environment, principal reductions that restore some equity for the homeowner may be a relatively more effective means of avoiding delinquency and foreclosure,' Bernanke said."

Foreclosure Tours

Hattip to Ben's Housing Bubble Blog:

"On a sunny Saturday morning, 25 people from the area boarded a bus chartered by an enterprising real estate company for a first-in-the-region-tour providing a sampling of the estimated tens of thousands of foreclosed houses in the region.

'You guys have a great opportunity today. There's not a lot of people doing this,' mortgage attorney Art Grace told the 25 house hunters on the bus. 'And I would say the general public doesn't know a whole lot about the great opportunity out there.'
. . .
The tour visited nine foreclosed properties in the Gainesville and Haymarket areas in under three hours. They included townhomes and stand-alone homes, ranging from $200,000 to $600,000. One home was only two years old; another was marked down by $200,000.

There were 28,455 foreclosure filing in the Washington/Arlington/Alexandria metro area in 2007, ranking it 41 in the list of the top 100 largest U.S. cities surveyed by RealtyTrac".

"Opportunity," I've noticed, is the ubiquitous buzzword on foreclosure listings.

A Permabull Rethinks

From Ben Stein's How Not to Ruin Your Life:

"Keeping asking prices high may make sellers feel good, but it won't sell their homes. Consider this: On one hand, brokers tell me that prices haven't fallen much, and that they think that's a good sign. On the other hand, they complain that sales volume is way down.
. . .
Again, the real estate collapse has a long way to run yet, and it'll end when sellers get realistic. That could take four years, and maybe longer. But if you need to sell, there's no shame in asking a sensible price."

Fairfax County -- On the Market

7334 TAVENNER LN #2A
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22306
List Price: $109,900
Prior Sale: $235,000 06/28/2005
Listing Date: 03/02/08
-53.2%

6210 PIONEER DR
SPRINGFIELD, VA 22150
List Price: $239,900
Prior Sale: $510,000 10/07/2005
Listing Date: 02/25/08
-53.0%

2215 SAUNDERS DR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $175,900
Prior Sale: $354,000 08/15/2005
Listing Date: 02/23/08
-50.3%

563 FLORIDA AVE #T3
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $147,000
Prior Sale: $283,000 09/08/2005
Listing Date: 02/26/08
-48.1%

3809 MONTE VISTA DR #99A
ALEXANDRIA, VA 22309
List Price: $170,000
Prior Sale: $318,000 03/16/2006
Listing Date: 02/26/08
-46.5%

See Fairfax County 3/3/2008 for more comparisons from this week's listings.


(Links by FranklyMLS.com)