Prince William County -- On the Market

1901 CAROLINE CT
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $189,900
Prior Sale: $450,000 2/24/2006
Listing Date: 01/23/08
-57.8%

13912 LYNHURST DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $179,900
Prior Sale: $417,000 8/5/2005
Listing Date: 01/28/08
-56.9%

8842 CHERRY OAK CT
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $129,900
Prior Sale: $295,000 8/31/2005
Listing Date: 01/25/08
-56.0%

1927 WILLOW LN
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $159,000
Prior Sale: $350,000 1/24/2006
Listing Date: 01/23/08
-54.6%

7986 DEWARD CT
MANASSAS, VA 20110
List Price: $224,900
Prior Sale: $495,000 5/17/2006
Listing Date: 01/24/08
-54.6%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Census Bureau Reports Q4 2007

The Census Bureau released a new report today on residential vacancies and homeownership for the fourth quarter 2007.

The Census Bureau said the rental and homeowner vacancy rates were not statistically different from the fourth quarter rate last year or the rate last quarter. But the homeownership rate at 67.8 (+/-0.5) percent for the current quarter was lower than the fourth quarter 2006 rate (68.9 percent) and also lower than the rate last quarter (68.2 percent).

Quotable

From the Chicago Tribune:

"About 604,000 new houses sold in December, a 4.7 percent drop from November and a 40.7 percent decline from the end of 2006, according to a report Monday from the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development.

December sale prices, meanwhile, fell about 10 percent from a year earlier.

'This is worse than expected and highlights the dire straits of the housing market,' said Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com in West Chester, Pa. 'The floor has fallen out of the housing market.'

Adding to the industry's woes, he said, were 'weak job growth and rising unemployment.'

New-home sales are down 57 percent from the peak in mid-2005, and prices are off 17 percent since spring 2007, Zandi noted, adding, 'This is the worst housing decline since the Great Depression.'

Biggest YOY Price Decline on Record

From CNNMoney:

"The housing market is only getting worse, according to the latest report from S&P Case/Shiller released Tuesday.

Home prices were down 8.4 percent in November compared with last year in its 10-city index, a record low. The 20-city index also fell 7.7 percent.

The Case/Shiller report compares same-home sale prices. The industry considers it to be one of the most accurate snapshots of housing prices.

Previously, the largest year-over-year decline on record was 6.3 percent in April 1991. The November report marked the 11th consecutive month of negative returns for the index, and twenty-four months of decelerating returns".

The S&P/Case-Shiller report shows the Washington metropolitan area with a -7.8% YOY price change.

Loudoun County -- On the Market

215 COTTAGE RD
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $164,900
Prior Sale: $355,000 06/24/2005
Listing Date: 01/25/08
-53.5%

1015 MARSDEN CT #195
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $166,500
Prior Sale: $320,000 05/09/2005
Listing Date: 01/25/08
-48.0%

206 BRUNSWICK ST
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $279,000
Prior Sale: $490,000 07/25/2005
Listing Date: 01/28/08
-43.1%

503 STAUNTON AVE
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $299,900
Prior Sale: $525,000 01/17/2006
Listing Date: 01/24/08
-42.9%

1001 WYTHE CT NE
LEESBURG, VA 20176
List Price: $189,900
Prior Sale: $326,000 07/06/2005
Listing Date: 01/26/08
-41.7%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Saved House Lady -- White House Guest

First (alphabetically) on the Guest List for the First Lady's Box at the 2008 State of the Union:

"Lori Ball, Homemaker (Brookville, Indiana)

Lori Ball is a stay-at-home mom of four children, two of whom still live with her in Brookville, Indiana. In 2005, her husband, Carey Ball, had back surgery and was out of work for six months recovering. Shortly after, Mr. Ball lost his job as his company was downsizing, and the Balls began to fall behind on their house payments. Creditors began to call frequently, and Mrs. Ball and her husband did not know where to turn. Carey and Lori Ball then received in the mail an information package from their mortgage provider, Wells Fargo, and from HOPE NOW, an alliance of counselors, servicers, investors, and other mortgage market participants whose aim is to help homeowners stay in their homes. In addition, Lori Ball saw President Bush speak on television about the HOPE NOW Alliance. The President communicated to Americans that help could be a phone call away. Mr. Ball called the number, and their family received the help needed to restructure their mortgage and save their home. Mrs. Ball is appreciative for the help the HOPE NOW Alliance provided her family, and she encourages other Americans facing troubles with their mortgage to contact their lender or a credit counselor at 888-995-HOPE."

Slow December For Builders

"WASHINGTON (AP) -- Sales of new homes plunged by a record amount in 2007 while prices posted the weakest showing in 16 years, demonstrating the troubles builders are facing with a huge backlog of unsold homes.

The Commerce Department reported Monday that sales of new homes dropped by 26.4 percent last year to 774,000. That marked the worst sales year on record, surpassing the old mark of a 23.1 percent plunge in 1980.
. . .
While the median home price for the entire year was up slightly, the median price of homes sold in December was $219,200. That was down 10.4 percent from a year ago, the biggest 12-month price drop in 37 years.

Analysts said that prices will likely keep falling in early 2008 as builders continue to struggle to work down the glut of homes.

It would take 9.6 months to eliminate the backlog of unsold new homes at the December sales pace, the longest stretch of time since the month's supply stood at 10.3 months in October 1981".

The AARP Wakes Up

Have we finally remembered everyone? I think the top earners are now the only group excluded, but of course they won't get anywhere complaining.

The last paragraph reminds me of our recent snowfall and what happens when you start out with a little pile of snow and start rolling.

"WASHINGTON (AP) -- Senate Democrats will move to add to a $150 billion economic stimulus package rebates for senior citizens living off Social Security and an extension of unemployment benefits, setting up a clash with the White House and House leaders who are pushing a narrower package.
. . .
'I don't think the Senate is going to want to derail this program,' Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson, Bush's pointman on the deal, told CNN on Sunday. 'And I don't think the American people are going to be anything but impatient if we don't enact this bipartisan agreement quickly.'

But Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., has said the Senate would consider adding to that plan, including extending unemployment benefits, boosting home heating subsidies, raising food stamp benefits and approving money for public works projects".

Fairfax County -- On the Market

1335 SPRINGTIDE PL
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $159,900
Prior Sale: $350,000 06/05/2006
Listing Date: 01/21/08
-54.3%

2169 MONAGHAN DR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $174,900
Prior Sale: $358,000 07/06/2005
Listing Date: 01/23/08
-51.1%

3227 NEALON DR
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22042
List Price: $329,900
Prior Sale: $566,100 05/23/2005
Listing Date: 01/24/08
-41.7%

6113 ROCKY WAY CT
CENTREVILLE, VA 20120
List Price: $199,000
Prior Sale: $340,000 06/07/2006
Listing Date: 01/17/08
-41.5%

2242 COCQUINA DR
RESTON, VA 20191
List Price: $249,900
Prior Sale: $421,000 09/29/2005
Listing Date: 01/23/08
-40.6%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Now What?

From the Washington Post:

"The federal government will not fund the Metro extension to Dulles International Airport without drastic changes, officials said yesterday, effectively scuttling a $5 billion project planned for more than 40 years and widely considered crucial to the region's economic future.
. . .
'The sheer number and magnitude of the current project's technical, financial and institutional risks and uncertainties are unprecedented,' Simpson wrote yesterday in a follow-up letter to Virginia Gov. Timothy M. Kaine (D). 'I have serious concerns whether it would be appropriate to continue further investment.'"

Jim Bacon at Bacon's Rebellion offers a few options.

We Have a Deal

Tentative Deal Reached on Economic Stimulus Package:

"House leaders and the administration reached tentative agreement today on a roughly $145 billion economic stimulus package that would quickly send payments to poor and middle class workers while offering businesses one-time incentives to invest in new equipment and write off tax losses.
. . .
"Under the deal, nearly everyone earning a paycheck would receive at least $300 from the Internal Revenue Service. Most workers would receive rebates of $600 each, or $1,200 per couple. Families with children would receive an additional payment of $300 per child. Workers who earned at least $3,000 last year -- but not enough to pay income taxes -- would be eligible for $300.

Full rebates would be sent to single taxpayers who earned up to $75,000 and couples with incomes of as much as $150,000. The value of the payments would decline after that and phase out entirely at incomes of roughly $87,000 for individuals and $174,000 for joint filers..
. . .
To address the underlying economic issue of the housing slump, administration officials agreed to expand the Federal Housing Administration's ability to insure higher-priced mortgages and to help homeowners threatened by foreclosure renegotiate their loans without sharp increases in their payments.

The package would temporarily increase the size of jumbo mortgages that can be bought by government-sponsored Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, from $417,000 to as much as $625,500 in high-cost housing markets."

They All Need the Cash

Virginia homebuilders are pushing the General Assembly to overhaul the cash payment system for each new home in subdivisions:

"After fighting such an overhaul for years, homebuilders argue the current system of so-called cash proffers has driven the cost of homebuilding higher, especially with Prince William County’s failed proposal last year to raise its rate 35 percent to $51,113 per home".
. . .
'If we didn’t have proffered developments, if we don’t have cash contributions, it would be irresponsible for the county to approve any residential development whatsoever,” [Prince William County Chairman] Corey Stewart said.

The amount some Northern Virginia counties require builders to pay for each new house:

Prince William: $37,719
Prince William proposed: $51,113
Loudoun: $47,000
Stafford: $38,151
Spotsylvania: $35,295

Sen. John C. Watkins has filed a bill that would transform the way proffers and impact fees are administered across Virginia.

Street by Street

From the Washington Examiner:

"Real estate assessments for Arlington County’s single-family homes dropped an average of 1.25 percent for 2008, officials said last week, but numbers show the county’s real estate picture is all about location.

“The changes that have occurred in the real estate market many times are isolated to neighborhoods, types of properties and even price categories,” said Thomas Rice, the county’s director of real estate assessments. “We’re seeing the downward shift with properties at the lowest end of the price spectrum.”

The northern tip of the county was the only area to see values increase, according to 2008 figures."

Read the article for neighborhood info.

Prince William County -- On the Market

9419 LAFAYETTE AVE
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $164,900
Prior Sale: $442,000 7/22/2005
Listing Date: 01/14/08
-62.7%

8168 COMMUNITY DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $105,000
Prior Sale: $270,000 10/7/2005
Listing Date: 01/14/08
-61.1%

8004 COMMUNITY DR
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $119,900
Prior Sale: $282,900 6/20/2006
Listing Date: 01/16/08
-57.6%

4801 KIRKDALE DR
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $199,900
Prior Sale: $455,000 6/26/2006
Listing Date: 01/17/08
-56.1%

2924 BUELL CT
DUMFRIES, VA 22026
List Price: $99,900
Prior Sale: $225,000 5/19/2005
Listing Date: 01/18/08
-55.6%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Pulte Cuts 55 Local Jobs

"Pulte Homes, which announced plans eight months ago to slash its nationwide work force by 16 percent, is cutting 55 jobs in the Washington and Baltimore areas, about 20 percent of its local work force.

The Bloomfield Hills, Mich.-based homebuilder says it has consolidated its Baltimore and Washington operations under one management team, with the most of its local work force to be concentrated at its Fairfax offices. It will keep sales and support staff in both Washington and Baltimore, according to Pulte spokeswoman Melanie Hearsh.

Lou Baker, president of Pulte's Maryland division, will oversee both markets. Pulte will still have about 230 area employees.

Pulte Homes lost $787.9 million in the third quarter, compared to $191.5 million in profits in the same quarter a year ago. The company's orders fell 37 percent. It will report fourth quarter results Jan. 31."

3/4 Point Cut

"The surprise reduction in the federal funds rate from 4.25 down to 3.5 percent marked the biggest one-day rate move by the central bank since it cuts its discount rate by a full percentage point in December 1991."

Fed Statement:

"The Federal Open Market Committee has decided to lower its target for the federal funds rate 75 basis points to 3-1/2 percent.

The Committee took this action in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth. While strains in short-term funding markets have eased somewhat, broader financial market conditions have continued to deteriorate and credit has tightened further for some businesses and households. Moreover, incoming information indicates a deepening of the housing contraction as well as some softening in labor markets".

Will this work, or will rates eventually be cut to nearly nil?

Oopsie

Sorry about that, China . . .

"BEIJING (AP) -- Shares in China's banks fell sharply Monday after news reports said its No. 2 lender, Bank of China, might write down holdings of U.S. mortgage securities and two others increased reserves for possible losses.

The reports were the first indication that Chinese lenders, which have so far avoided damage from the U.S. credit crisis, might face problems due to their holdings of subprime securities".

Arlington County -- On the Market

2141 NELSON ST
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $339,900
Prior Sale: $472,000 10/31/2005
Listing Date: 01/19/08
-28.0%

5110 COLUMBIA PIKE #5
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $199,000
Prior Sale: $269,000 9/12/2005
Listing Date: 01/07/08
-26.0%

3404 25TH ST S #35
ARLINGTON, VA 22206
List Price: $185,000
Prior Sale: $235,000 4/6/2006
Listing Date: 01/14/08
-21.3%

5435 8TH RD S
ARLINGTON, VA 22204
List Price: $310,000
Prior Sale: $370,000 08/08/2005
Listing Date: 01/11/08
-16.2%

3804 KEMPER RD S
ARLINGTON, VA 22206
List Price: $323,900
Prior Sale: $375,000 5/27/2005
Listing Date: 01/04/08
-13.6%

See Same-House Sales document for more comparisons from this week's listings.

Renters Get a Break

From the Washington Post:

"The average rental vacancy rate in the Washington area in the fourth quarter of 2007 climbed to 3.7 percent from 2.9 percent a year before. Rents increased 1.8 percent in the past year, the smallest rise in five years.
. . .
Management companies said more prospective tenants are shopping around in the growing rental market and asking more about concessions or enticements such as free rent or a flat-screen television".

"The Old Sell More Homes Than They Buy"

The Economist has an article out about the possible effects on housing when 78 million baby boomers retire, drawing from a report published this month in the Journal of the American Planning Association. The authors of the report are Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography in the School of Policy, Planning and Development at the University of Southern California, and SungHo Ryu, an associate planner with the Southern California Association of Governments:

"For three decades baby-boomers have helped push prices up: they settled down, then bought bigger houses and second homes. But as the first of them celebrate their 65th birthdays in 2011, this may change. The old sell more homes than they buy, according to data covering 1995-2000 (see chart). The ratio of old to working-age people is expected to grow by 67% over the next two decades. Will the younger generation be able to buy all the homes on the market?

Young adults make up the bulk of new demand, with most purchasing homes when they reach their early 30s. The flood of elderly people selling their homes, Mr Myers suggests, may lead to a drawn-out buyers' market. Prices may fall further as younger people, perceiving a downturn, delay purchasing".

The Wall Street Journal also has some commentary on this in an article entitled "Why Baby Boomers May Bust the Housing Market".

In some states – namely Connecticut, Hawaii, New York, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and West Virginia – the process has already begun, with sellers starting to outnumber buyers, Mr. Myers says. He contends that the East Coast, particular Maryland and states north, face a double hurdle because there aren’t enough young people to pick up the slack as boomers sell off and because prices are so high that many will not be able to afford these homes.

“In some states like New Jersey, it could be 20 years before prices recover,” he says, explaining that the generational trend is one that could stretch for decades.

In the past few years, some housing talk has centered around young people expressing concerns about not only paying more taxes for social welfare programs, but also funding someone's retirement in Florida or Arizona by buying their overpriced house.

Here's an ad from last year posted by one of our commenters in this thread:

14XXX Legend Glen Court
Gainesville, VA 20155
ATTENTION ATTENTION: Husband needs to retire. Bring any Reasonable OFFERS for us to consider and Pre-approval from bank to OPEN HOUSE THIS SUNDAY 6/24 or call us for private showing. ALL PAPERWORK will be done by licensed agent.

The poster (John) noted the original list price was $475,000 and was reduced to $389,900 after a year on the market. The house was purchased on 6/30/2003 for $250,000. Currently the lowest-priced house on the street is $299,900, and the most expensive is $349,900.

Loudoun County -- On the Market

231 WILLOW TER
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $172,000
Prior Sale: $329,990 6/21/2005
Listing Date: 01/15/08
-47.9%

514 FILLMORE AVE N
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $239,900
Prior Sale: $427,000 12/22/2005
Listing Date: 01/10/08
-43.8%

103 LAURA ANNE DR
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $289,900
Prior Sale: $510,000 4/4/2006
Listing Date: 01/11/08
-43.2%

1001 BUCKINGHAM RD
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $249,900
Prior Sale: $429,900 12/4/2006
Listing Date: 01/11/08
-41.9%

1103 BUCKINGHAM RD
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $204,900
Prior Sale: $350,000 03/01/2005
Listing Date: 01/17/08
-41.5%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Building Corner

Here's a place to post referrals, phone numbers, and websites of Northern Virginia building or remodeling contractors you feel comfortable recommending. If you're a contractor who'd like to be interviewed for some work, feel free to post.

Obviously, referrals are subjective; I'm sure any referrals will be further checked (due diligence) by interested persons.

I've been gathering a personal list of energy-saving features to incorporate into a new house:

WaterFurnace - Geothermal Comfort Systems

Tulikivi

Rinnai Tankless Water Heaters

Washington, DC Solar Tours

Here's a question from a commenter that might have gotten lost a few posts ago:

lee said...

lisak,

I'm also building a house with a contractor's help in stafford (builder-owner/construction management), and our cost per sq.ft is a lot higher than your estimates, which sub-contractors did you pick? We are having a hard time finding a framing laborers whose cost would be under $5 per sq.ft.

Inventory and Price Reductions

Source: ZipRealty

Fairfax County -- On the Market

343 RENEAU WAY
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $185,000
Prior Sale: $355,000 06/27/2006
Listing Date: 01/07/08
-47.9%

1237 WILSHIRE DR
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $275,500
Prior Sale: $515,000 09/18/2006
Listing Date: 01/10/08
-46.5%

1204 SPRINGTIDE PL
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $199,900
Prior Sale: $360,000 09/01/2006
Listing Date: 01/06/08
-44.5%

359 HILLWOOD CT
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $310,000
Prior Sale: $550,000 06/21/2006
Listing Date: 01/13/08
-43.6%

526 EARLY FALL CT
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $209,900
Prior Sale: $369,000 09/20/2005
Listing Date: 01/12/08
-43.1%

(See "Same-House sales" sidebar for more)

Red Flags

From the Washington Post:

"Most of the [Washington, D.C.] region has been tagged a "declining market" by the powerful loan underwriters who review mortgage applications.
. . .
In November, a 'declining market' flag was enough to scuttle a $510,000 home purchase planned by Tony and Sarah Pierson, both Army captains. They were only days away from closing on a brick Cape Cod near the historic district in Leesburg. But the deal fell apart when their lender, USAA First Mortgage Origination, notified them that, because of that flag, USAA would no longer honor its preapproval commitment for a package of first and second mortgages covering 100 percent of the price.

Even though the appraisal showed a value higher than the Piersons had agreed to pay for the home, USAA told them it would approve the deal only if the couple came up with a 5 percent down payment. 'Five percent of half a million dollars is $25,000,' Tony noted. They had that in savings, but had been planning to use it to renovate the house. They didn't close the mortgage'.

Question: Do you think this young couple could truly have afforded this house? After they spend their last $25,000 on renovations, then what? How does one sleep at night with no savings?

More from the article:

"Jim Foley, senior vice president for George Mason Mortgage's Bethesda office, said automated underwriting systems from investors he works with are flagging all of the District plus the following cities and counties in Maryland and Virginia as "declining markets." In Maryland: Calvert, Charles and Prince George's counties. In Virginia: Alexandria, Arlington, Clarke County, Fairfax County, Fairfax City, Falls Church, Fauquier County, Fredericksburg, Loudoun County, Manassas, Manassas Park, Prince William, Spotsylvania, Stafford and Warren".

Vindication

In a November 21st post, I highlighted a property under the heading Deutsche Bank Throws in the Towel.

The final $115K asking price was theorized in the comments here to be an auction price designed to generate bids -- I contacted the real estate agent later and she confirmed this. At the time I made a mental note to follow up when the property was sold.

This property sold for $150,000 on 12/17/2007, according Prince William County's assessment website. The final sales price represents a 52% discount from the property's prior sale in 2005, and was much lower than the prices Deutsche Bank had been asking for seven months.

Dean Foust picked this up at the time in the HotProperty blog at BusinessWeek. The reader comments there were somewhat deprecating:

"Let's get serious. This is such an unrealistic example of what is typically happening in the market today in the metro DC area."

"Bottom line, don't think this will be the price it eventually sells for."

"Think the writer needs to get a serious beating on his performance review for this one!"

"The problem with this example is the final price drop. A cape like this would probably have sold for $200K."

A big thanks to Dean for his mention of this blog on this and other occasions at the excellent HotProperty blog.


Deutsche Bank Throws in the Towel

1926 WILLOW LN WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191 List Price: $115,000 Prior Sale: $315,000 4/25/2005 Listing Date: 04/21/07 -63.5%

From ZipRealty:

Price Reduced: 05/23/07 -- $339,900 to $319,900
Price Reduced: 06/20/07 -- $319,900 to $289,900
Price Reduced: 07/19/07 -- $289,900 to $278,900
Price Reduced: 09/13/07 -- $278,900 to $249,900
Price Reduced: 10/19/07 -- $249,900 to $239,900
Price Reduced: 11/19/07 -- $239,900 to $115,000

On Market: 213 days

A Decade of December Sales

Meals Tax

From Fauquier County:

Terry Nyhous quakes at the thought of a double-digit jump in Fauquier's real estate tax rate.

The county simply must consider alternative revenue sources to help take the sting of soaring homeowner tax bills, Nyhous suggested.
. . .
That's why Nyhous backs 4-percent meals tax, which would apply to restaurants and all establishments that sell prepared food.

Voters would have to approve a meals tax.
. . .
Nyhous said he dislikes taxes as much as anyone.

But keep in mind that a significant amount of the meals tax would be paid from purchases by through travelers along major corridors like Route 28 and U.S. 17, 29 and 211, he said.
. . .
Fauquier faces a "brutal" 2008-09 budget cycle, and it would appear residents may experience a substantial real estate tax rate increase.

Prince William County -- On the Market

7613 AMHERST DR
MANASSAS, VA 20111
List Price: $125,000
Prior Sale: $299,000 8/31/2004
Listing Date: 01/07/08
-58.2%

8269 VERNON ST
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $160,000
Prior Sale: $355,950 5/01/2006
Listing Date: 01/09/08
-55.0%

4520 EVANSDALE RD
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22193
List Price: $177,500
Prior Sale: $375,000 5/19/2006
Listing Date: 01/05/08
-52.7%

15418 MICHIGAN RD
WOODBRIDGE, VA 22191
List Price: $184,900
Prior Sale: $370,000 3/06/2006
Listing Date: 01/08/08
-50.0%

8234 WYCLIFFE CT
MANASSAS, VA 20109
List Price: $169,900
Prior Sale: $338,900 10/31/2005
Listing Date: 01/02/08
-49.9%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Freefall

Last Trade: 5.47
Trade Time: 4:03PM ET
Change: -2.17 (28.40%)

Loudoun County -- On the Market

21749 LADYSLIPPER SQ
ASHBURN, VA 20147
List Price: $328,900
Prior Sale: $607,000 9/1/2006
Listing Date: 01/01/08
-45.8%

38612 RAMBLING FARM DR
HAMILTON, VA 20158
List Price: $533,500
Prior Sale: $941,010 12/07/2005
Listing Date: 01/05/08
-43.3%

1901 AMELIA ST
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $289,900
Prior Sale: $495,000 07/21/2005
Listing Date: 01/03/08
-41.4%

303 IRVING RD S
STERLING, VA 20164
List Price: $290,000
Prior Sale: $495,000 07/21/2005
Listing Date: 01/02/08
-41.4%

31 HAXALL CT
STERLING, VA 20165
List Price: $239,900
Prior Sale: $388,900 05/30/2006
Listing Date: 01/05/08
-38.3%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

Fairfax County -- On the Market

1204 SPRINGTIDE PL
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $199,900
Prior Sale: $360,000 09/01/2006
Listing Date: 01/06/08
-44.5%

367 LINDEN CT
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $239,900
Prior Sale: $410,000 10/21/2005
Listing Date: 01/04/08
-41.5%

3039 CASTLE RD
FALLS CHURCH, VA 22044
List Price: $360,500
Prior Sale: $577,500 10/04/2006
Listing Date: 01/02/08
-37.6%

509 MERLINS LN
HERNDON, VA 20170
List Price: $310,000
Prior Sale: $485,000 10/17/2005
Listing Date: 12/29/07
-36.1%

9608 THOMAS BAXTER PL
LORTON, VA 22079
List Price: $419,900
Prior Sale: $648,291 06/30/2005
Listing Date: 01/03/08
-35.2%

(See "Same-House Sales" sidebar for more)

"Real Estate Live" Highlights

From yesterday's discussion with Maryann Haggerty and Elizabeth Razzi, Washington Post Real Estate editor and columnist:

"Arlington, Va: We bought our house three years ago and intended to stay for many years. Now my husband's job may be transferred to the south. Based on our zip code stats and our neighborhood's sales, it looks like we could probably break even or make 2-5 percent on our home if we sell, but then there's the issue of the Realtor's commission.
. . .
Waldorf, Md: When we bought our home, the base price of the model we bought was $427,900. The builder has since lowered this price to $404,900. Additionally, other homes for sale in my neighborhood sit on the market for at least 6 months with multiple price drops.
.. .
Hyperventilating in Maryland...: I need to relocate for a job in June and need to sell my house. I went online to see what some of the houses in my area were selling for. To my horror, there are 3 houses in my subdivision listed at below what I bought my house for 3.5 years ago! All three are "pre-foreclosure" or short sell listings. How will that affect the price at which I can sell my house? My house has also been completely renovated, including new siding and roof. Will I be able to make any of that investment back?
. . .
Falls Church, Va: Good afternoon, ladies. When can we expect to receive our tax assessment in Fairfax County? I've checked www.fairfaxcounty.gov/dta but there's no information as to when the bills are sent. My husband and I are very curious to see what it says since we purchased the house last year for $35K below the '07 assessment and two houses down the street from us sold in the fall for even less than we paid."

The Region's Economy -- Two Sides

Steven Pearlstein, a business columnist at the Washington Post, takes on GMU's Stephen Fuller's rosy predictions in this column entitled "We're Not Immune".

Only This, and Nothing More

I never miss the weekly "Property Transfers" section in the Fauquier Times-Democrat. (Since about six months ago, transfers to lenders are occurring with increasing frequency).

This one caught my eye today:

"Edgar Allen Poe to Tony C. Poe, deed of gift, 6.798 acres, Dumfries Road (Route 605), near Auburn, GPIN 7914-32-8881, $0."

Centex Quits in Warrenton

I was concerned with the fate of the 4,000 grapevines when I first read that Pearmund was planting them.

From the Fauquier Times-Democrat:

"In yet another sign of abysmal times for the residential housing market, Centex Homes has abandoned plans for a high-end, seniors-only community along Warrenton’s southwestern edge.

Two weeks ago, the Dallas, Texas-based company terminated its contract to buy 370 acres from Arabelle Arrington on U.S. 29, adjacent to The Home Depot store.

"The economics of the project simply didn’t work in the current market conditions," Centex Division Manager Joe Ricketts said in an e-mail. "The land costs and expense structure for this project are not viable considering today’s housing market."

For largely the same reasons, Centex last summer walked away from its 349-home Freedom Place project at U.S. 17 and Route 28 near Bealeton before turning a spade of soil.
. . .
Last spring, Pearmund planted 4,000 grapevines along the ridgeline that overlooks U.S. 29. His plan ultimately called for 40,000 vines.
. . .
So what will become of the vines at Arrington’s farm? "That’s up to Mrs. Arrington," Pearmund said. "If she wants me to take out the vineyard, I will take it out." Her lawyer will resolve the matter, Arrington said.

Meanwhile, if she allows, Pearmund wants to continue to maintain the vines for two or three years, with the hope that the housing market will rebound and a developer with deep pockets will pick up where Centex left off.